[2015 RWC] Pool A: Wales vs. Fiji (01/10/2015)

[Ospreylian]

Matawalu also out for Fiji. He's another big loss for them, very dangerous player.

Another bit of luck and fortunate timing there for Wales. He's a class player, one of the best scrum halves in world rugby, I'm always disappointed when Wales can't play against the best players available on opposition teams. But this means I am more confident of the Wales win now.

 

[AzaMatt]

Another bit of luck and fortunate timing there for Wales. He's a class player, one of the best scrum halves in world rugby, I'm always disappointed when Wales can't play against the best players available on opposition teams. But this means I am more confident of the Wales win now.

he is a big loss, imagine if he run the blindside like he did for that disallowed try vs england, cuthbert would be in all sorts of bother

 

[PacDuran]

Another bit of luck and fortunate timing there for Wales. He's a class player, one of the best scrum halves in world rugby, I'm always disappointed when Wales can't play against the best players available on opposition teams. But this means I am more confident of the Wales win now.

How many more Wales players will be chopped down by that seeming armless Fijian Number 6. Can't remember his name but he has got to be up there with the hardest tackle's in world rugby.

 

[Ospreylian]

he is a big loss, imagine if he run the blindside like he did for that disallowed try vs england, cuthbert would be in all sorts of bother

That's the thing. Fiji have been criticized for their defence, but I worry about starting Cuthbert against them when they have so many big ball crashing players. The prospect of Cuthbert facing off against Nadolo would have been terrifying, but thankfully that won't have to happen anymore.

 

[Ospervat]

My take on the Pool:

Currently the pools is headed by:

AUS 9 Pts
WAL 9 Pts
ENG 6 Pts


And there's only 4 games left that will effect those 3 teams:

WAL v FIJ
ENG v AUS
WAL v AUS
ENG v URU

Even as a Welshman I can safely say England will get a bonus point (4+ tries) win over Uruguay, so that would leave the table as ENG 11, AUS 9, Wales 9 but with England only having one game to improve on that 11 Pts compared to Oz and Wales having 2.

Wales should beat Fiji with a bonus point, however it's a short turnaround between the tiring England win and Thursday's Fiji game, Wales have even more injury concerns and Fiji have upset Wales in world cups before, so it's not an easy game to call. I'm going to go for the bonus point win here even though I'm not confident that will happen, I'm not even confident we'll win at this point! However, If we lose then I can't see us beating Oz and this post will be a waste of typing with Oz & Eng going through.


So taking the easy (ish) games in to account, the table will probably be WAL+5, ENG+5:

WAL 14 Pts
ENG 11 Pts
AUS 9 Pts


With only these two massive games as a decider, note Oz have two chances to improve compared to ENG & Wales 1:

ENG v AUS
WAL v AUS


Which ignoring draws gives us the options below, excluding bonus points, max BPs in brackets:

AUS beat ENG & AUS beat WAL: AUS 17(19), WAL 14(16), ENG 11(13)
ENG beat AUS & AUS beat WAL: ENG 15(16), WAL 14(16), AUS 13(16)
AUS beat ENG & WAL beat AUS: WAL 18(19), AUS 13(14), ENG 11(13)
ENG beat AUS & WAL beat AUS: WAL 18(19), ENG 15(16), AUS 9(13)


Wales: Assuming Wales actually beat Fiji with the bonus point, if England lose to Oz then Wales are through. If England beat Oz and Wales lose it will likely be down to bonus points between Oz and Wales for runner up. Wales should have 1 already from Fiji with 1-2 possible when losing to Oz, Oz could get 1 for beating Wales and 1-2 losing to Eng... could be close and a possible scenario.

England: Unless Wales lose on Thursday, they have to beat Oz to go through. However, beating Oz even without a bonus point would almost guarantee progression - Oz would have to gain all 3 possible bonus points without England getting theirs to beat England's points (i.e: lose to England by less than seven WITHOUT England scoring 4 tries WHILE scoring 4 tries against BOTH England AND Wales). Even if Oz went all out for the tries, England could pick up 4 tries (think England France in the 6N) in retaliation, the BP win against Oz would ensure England are through to the QFs.

Australia: They look pretty comfortable, beat England and they're through. Only losing to both teams would definitely see them out. Losing to only England would mean a bonus point contest between them and Wales (see Wales above).

Aaarrrggghhh - my head hurts.

Instincts telling me this will be the final table so gonna stick my neck out.......
Aus - 17 pts
Eng - 12 pts
Wales 11 pts

 

[Ospreylian]

Looks like Gatland is up to his mind games again, this time within his own squad

He has warned the starting team to face Fiji that he will be monitoring GPS numbers closely during training and he would be prepared to make alterations to the team if certain players weren't keeping up with the expected intensity. Says he thinks it is all part of the challenge of trying to get the players mentally ready for the must-win game after the emotional high of beating England. Not sure how true it is he would actually make those changes though...

 

[AzaMatt]

Looks like Gatland is up to his mind games again, this time within his own squad

He has warned the starting team to face Fiji that he will be monitoring GPS numbers closely during training and he would be prepared to make alterations to the team if certain players weren't keeping up with the expected intensity. Says he thinks it is all part of the challenge of trying to get the players mentally ready for the must-win game after the emotional high of beating England. Not sure how true it is he would actually make those changes though...

Just starts swinging a sledgehammer around, how do you think we became so fragile

 

[Belvedere]

Aaarrrggghhh - my head hurts.

Instincts telling me this will be the final table so gonna stick my neck out.......
Aus - 17 pts
Eng - 12 pts
Wales 11 pts

You actually think that Wales will lose to Fiji?

You are a moron.

 

[ABs2011]

You actually think that Wales will lose to Fiji?

You are a moron.

Yeah, what a moron. That could never happen! Especially at a world cup!!

 

[Kiwi_]

You actually think that Wales will lose to Fiji?

You are a moron.

You guys have lost to nearly every tier 2 nation and as ABs2011 pointed out, lost to Fiji at a RWC. The only moron here appears to be you.

 

[Belvedere]

Yeah, what a moron. That could never happen! Especially at a world cup!!

There is simply no comparison bettween the two situations.

In 2007 we had the single worst Welsh coach of all time at the helm, and had already lost in the pool.

We had lost by 60 points to England in a warm up game and looked like an outfit deserving of a thrashing.

We have picked our strongest squad against them that it is possible to feild. Whilst they have several key players either banned or injured.

If we lose to Fiji I will eat a Cat poo smoothie.

 

[ABs2011]

There is simply no comparison bettween the two situations.

In 2007 we had the single worst Welsh coach of all time at the helm, and had already lost in the pool.

We had lost by 60 points to England in a warm up game and looked like an outfit deserving of a thrashing.

We have picked our strongest squad against them that it is possible to feild. Whilst they have several key players either banned or injured.

If we lose to Fiji I will eat a Cat poo smoothie.

Haha! Heineken called it insulting when people suggested Japan might have a chance against SA, but your promise to eat a cat poo smoothie would trump that

I'm just having you on mate, although I do think name calling is a bit pathetic!

That being said, my point is that upsets happen every now and then even when you think it's impossible - just ask Heineken!!

 

[Belvedere]

You guys have lost to nearly every tier 2 nation and as ABs2011 pointed out, lost to Fiji at a RWC. The only moron here appears to be you.

Aussie recently lost to Samoa. Does that mean if you were to play them in the Quarter final it would be justified for people to assume it's likley you will get knocked out by them?

It would be a huge upset, and anybody calling it before hand would be rather silly, despite the result.

- - - Updated - - -

Haha! Heineken called it insulting when people suggested Japan might have a chance against SA, but your promise to eat a cat poo smoothie would trump that

I'm just having you on mate, although I do think name calling is a bit pathetic!

That being said, my point is that upsets happen every now and then even when you think it's impossible - just ask Heineken!!

Fair enough.

It just shocked me that somebody actually thought it likley we will lose to Fiji.

Anyway, I have one of those nutri-bullet blenders.

Just need to find myself a cat.

 

[OneFansOpinion]

Defensively we were shocking in 2007. Shane Williams was untouchable though. That one there and his two against RSA were immense.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Haha! Heineken called it insulting when people suggested Japan might have a chance against SA, but your promise to eat a cat poo smoothie would trump that

I'm just having you on mate, although I do think name calling is a bit pathetic!

That being said, my point is that upsets happen every now and then even when you think it's impossible - just ask Heineken!!

Yup, man did that come back to bite me in the anus.

Anyways, I think Fiji was also a different and better team in 2007 than they are now, they nearly went on to beat SA in the QF's in 2007.

But with that said, Wales could just let this one slip due to their short period after the England game to recover and their injury list growing by the day. Whereas Fiji have only had to make a change here and there due to suspension

 

[Ospervat]

You actually think that Wales will lose to Fiji?

You are a moron.

Yes. I thinks the odds of Fiji winning the game are overwhelmingly higher now than they were 5 days ago.

I put my neutral hat on and figured Fiji to beat Wales by less than 7
Oz beat Wales less than 7

England beat Uruguay with BP
Oz beat England by less than 7.

I'm a Saffer so I don't have too much a problem with any outcome.
Preferably like to see Oz go out but I recognise this is unlikely.

Regarding the term moron:
These are the least feeble-minded of those in society who are regarded as having a mental disability, with a mental age of between 8 and 12, which is quite interesting in itself as it is primary school children of about this age that you will hear calling others by this name as an insult.

Ho hum.

 

[81st_Minute]

Me too. I think this is anyone's game.

 

[MojoPin]

This game could definitely still go either way. The coaching team know it too, why do you think they're warning players about being dropped? It's clear the management have seen this game as a huge threat from day one - constantly discussed the short turnaround and how they would intend to field the strongest team available. We have picked a strong team but there are risks in there too. I'm confident, but nothing is certain in this RWC - that much has already been shown.

 

[wayevs]

There is simply no comparison bettween the two situations.

In 2007 we had the single worst Welsh coach of all time at the helm, and had already lost in the pool.

We had lost by 60 points to England in a warm up game and looked like an outfit deserving of a thrashing.

We have picked our strongest squad against them that it is possible to feild. Whilst they have several key players either banned or injured.

If we lose to Fiji I will eat a Cat poo smoothie.

Let's face it I fully expect us to win this game and get the bp but stranger things have this world cup ref -SA. I can see why people do think Fiji have a decent chance tho , they gave England hell and Australia a tough match , now most people from them nations think that Wales are not up to their standard , obviously not me but that is the general feeling- 3 grand slams in 10 years never changed that so neither will beating England at home in the world cup either - We are always "lucky" or " they were poor" .

 

[OneFansOpinion]

I'm actually very excited about this game now that I really look at the team we've got. A solid pack with a very well organised back line. But also, in Matthew and Tyler Morgan, a pair of unknown (to the rest of the world) youngsters with plenty of flair. I think we're going to rack up a big score here.
There I said it