[2015 RWC] Pool A: Wales vs. Fiji (01/10/2015)

[ncurd]

Back to your original point, we need to win this and I feel this selection is as important as your captains call on to go for the corner or the posts on Saturday .

Well we can put most our loss down to selection and substitutions to be honest. Start with Ford & Slade and I believe the margin would of been even bigger after 60 minutes of intial dominance. Why you'd change your defensive shape to essentially a weaker one with 10 minutes to go also makes little sense.

Essentially don't make out mistake and go conservative, Fiji despite no BP's gave both Aus and Eng a rough time of it and you're not 100% by any stretch of the imagination it took England ineptitude and a monumental performance to beat England by 3 points.

 

[MidlandsMan]

Lets put it this way, win and there are scenario's where a loss against Aus will still see you through even if England beat them. A loss against Fiji and you will probably have to beat Aus to qualify (there's even an odd one where a defeat by Fiji could lead to even an Aus win not being good enough but that's extremely unlikely).

You NEED to win this game.

Is that really possible!! Aus beat Eng and lose to Wales mean England 2 losses.. Aus lose to Eng and lose to wales means Aus have 2 losses..
Is it possible that Wales can finish behind a team with two losses if they lose to fiji but beat Aus

 

[HaydnH]

My take on the Pool:

Currently the pools is headed by:

AUS 9 Pts
WAL 9 Pts
ENG 6 Pts


And there's only 4 games left that will effect those 3 teams:

WAL v FIJ
ENG v AUS
WAL v AUS
ENG v URU

Even as a Welshman I can safely say England will get a bonus point (4+ tries) win over Uruguay, so that would leave the table as ENG 11, AUS 9, Wales 9 but with England only having one game to improve on that 11 Pts compared to Oz and Wales having 2.

Wales should beat Fiji with a bonus point, however it's a short turnaround between the tiring England win and Thursday's Fiji game, Wales have even more injury concerns and Fiji have upset Wales in world cups before, so it's not an easy game to call. I'm going to go for the bonus point win here even though I'm not confident that will happen, I'm not even confident we'll win at this point! However, If we lose then I can't see us beating Oz and this post will be a waste of typing with Oz & Eng going through.


So taking the easy (ish) games in to account, the table will probably be WAL+5, ENG+5:

WAL 14 Pts
ENG 11 Pts
AUS 9 Pts


With only these two massive games as a decider, note Oz have two chances to improve compared to ENG & Wales 1:

ENG v AUS
WAL v AUS


Which ignoring draws gives us the options below, excluding bonus points, max BPs in brackets:

AUS beat ENG & AUS beat WAL: AUS 17(19), WAL 14(16), ENG 11(13)
ENG beat AUS & AUS beat WAL: ENG 15(16), WAL 14(16), AUS 13(16)
AUS beat ENG & WAL beat AUS: WAL 18(19), AUS 13(14), ENG 11(13)
ENG beat AUS & WAL beat AUS: WAL 18(19), ENG 15(16), AUS 9(13)


Wales: Assuming Wales actually beat Fiji with the bonus point, if England lose to Oz then Wales are through. If England beat Oz and Wales lose it will likely be down to bonus points between Oz and Wales for runner up. Wales should have 1 already from Fiji with 1-2 possible when losing to Oz, Oz could get 1 for beating Wales and 1-2 losing to Eng... could be close and a possible scenario.

England: Unless Wales lose on Thursday, they have to beat Oz to go through. However, beating Oz even without a bonus point would almost guarantee progression - Oz would have to gain all 3 possible bonus points without England getting theirs to beat England's points (i.e: lose to England by less than seven WITHOUT England scoring 4 tries WHILE scoring 4 tries against BOTH England AND Wales). Even if Oz went all out for the tries, England could pick up 4 tries (think England France in the 6N) in retaliation, the BP win against Oz would ensure England are through to the QFs.

Australia: They look pretty comfortable, beat England and they're through. Only losing to both teams would definitely see them out. Losing to only England would mean a bonus point contest between them and Wales (see Wales above).

 

[tompaton7]

[/B]


Is that really possible!! Aus beat Eng and lose to Wales mean England 2 losses.. Aus lose to Eng and lose to wales means Aus have 2 losses..
Is it possible that Wales can finish behind a team with two losses if they lose to fiji but beat Aus

No but if we lose both games (no bonus points) and England lose to Aus but beat Uruguay with a bonus point then they would go to 11 points while we remain on the 9 we are currently on.

If we beat Fiji and Aus beat England that's that, we're through and it's a winner comes 1st clash against Australia.

 

[RedCard]

Nadolo now out with 1 match ban (2 weeks) for tip tackle. He has been their best player and main ball carrier so a big loss for them. First bit of luck Wales have copped for a while but still a big game ahead for Thursday.

 

[ncurd]

[/B]


Is that really possible!! Aus beat Eng and lose to Wales mean England 2 losses.. Aus lose to Eng and lose to wales means Aus have 2 losses..
Is it possible that Wales can finish behind a team with two losses if they lose to fiji but beat Aus

It requires an Eng win against Aus

Fiji win no BP for Wales = 9pts Wales
England BP beat Aus, Aus get 4 try's and within 7pts = 11 pts Eng, 11pts Aus
Wales beat Aus with 0 BP's (due to 3 try's) but Aus within 7pts and 4 try's, 13pts Wales, 13pts points Aus
England BP win against Uru 16pts Eng

Aus go through on superior PD.

Like I said it's extremely unlikely

 

[AzaMatt]

My take on the Pool:

Currently the pools is headed by:

AUS 9 Pts
WAL 9 Pts
ENG 6 Pts


And there's only 4 games left that will effect those 3 teams:

WAL v FIJ
ENG v AUS
WAL v AUS
ENG v URU

Even as a Welshman I can safely say England will get a bonus point (4+ tries) win over Uruguay, so that would leave the table as ENG 11, AUS 9, Wales 9 but with England only having one game to improve on that 11 Pts compared to Oz and Wales having 2.

Wales should beat Fiji with a bonus point, however it's a short turnaround between the tiring England win and Thursday's Fiji game, Wales have even more injury concerns and Fiji have upset Wales in world cups before, so it's not an easy game to call. I'm going to go for the bonus point win here even though I'm not confident that will happen, I'm not even confident we'll win at this point! However, If we lose then I can't see us beating Oz and this post will be a waste of typing with Oz & Eng going through.


So taking the easy (ish) games in to account, the table will probably be WAL+5, ENG+5:

WAL 14 Pts
ENG 11 Pts
AUS 9 Pts


With only these two massive games as a decider, note Oz have two chances to improve compared to ENG & Wales 1:

ENG v AUS
WAL v AUS


Which ignoring draws gives us the options below, excluding bonus points, max BPs in brackets:

AUS beat ENG & AUS beat WAL: AUS 17(19), WAL 14(16), ENG 11(13)
ENG beat AUS & AUS beat WAL: ENG 15(16), WAL 14(16), AUS 13(16)
AUS beat ENG & WAL beat AUS: WAL 18(19), AUS 13(14), ENG 11(13)
ENG beat AUS & WAL beat AUS: WAL 18(19), ENG 15(16), AUS 9(13)


Wales: Assuming Wales actually beat Fiji with the bonus point, if England lose to Oz then Wales are through. If England beat Oz and Wales lose it will likely be down to bonus points between Oz and Wales for runner up. Wales should have 1 already from Fiji with 1-2 possible when losing to Oz, Oz could get 1 for beating Wales and 1-2 losing to Eng... could be close and a possible scenario.

England: Unless Wales lose on Thursday, they have to beat Oz to go through. However, beating Oz even without a bonus point would almost guarantee progression - Oz would have to gain all 3 possible bonus points without England getting theirs to beat England's points (i.e: lose to England by less than seven WITHOUT England scoring 4 tries WHILE scoring 4 tries against BOTH England AND Wales). Even if Oz went all out for the tries, England could pick up 4 tries (think England France in the 6N) in retaliation, the BP win against Oz would ensure England are through to the QFs.

Australia: They look pretty comfortable, beat England and they're through. Only losing to both teams would definitely see them out. Losing to only England would mean a bonus point contest between them and Wales (see Wales above).

imagine if both wales and england beat austrailia, that would be glorious

 

[MojoPin]

Nadolo now out with 1 match ban (2 weeks) for tip tackle. He has been their best player and main ball carrier so a big loss for them. First bit of luck Wales have copped for a while but still a big game ahead for Thursday.

Indeed, that's a big plus in our favour - Nadolo is a massive player (literally and figuratively) for Fiji. Their set-piece still remains a big concern IMO as they've looked very strong in that area so far and we've been a bit shaky. Hopefully Samson Lee is up to a start and can stop us giving Fiji too much front-foot advantage. Then we'll really need our backrow to rule the breakdown again and we should have a decent chance.

 

[RedruthRFC]

[/B]Is that really possible!! Aus beat Eng and lose to Wales mean England 2 losses.. Aus lose to Eng and lose to wales means Aus have 2 losses..
Is it possible that Wales can finish behind a team with two losses if they lose to fiji but beat Aus

I can't see how, but would be happy (and interested) to be corrected.

- - - Updated - - -

It requires an Eng win against Aus

Fiji win no BP for Wales = 9pts Wales
England BP beat Aus, Aus get 4 try's and within 7pts = 11 pts Eng, 11pts Aus
Wales beat Aus with 0 BP's (due to 3 try's) but Aus within 7pts and 4 try's, 13pts Wales, 13pts points Aus
England BP win against Uru 16pts Eng

Aus go through on superior PD.

Like I said it's extremely unlikely

No, Wales go through on the head to head having beaten Australia.

 

[ncurd]

I can't see how, but would be happy (and interested) to be corrected.

Got it wrong the game result between sides counts before PD so you need a 3 way tie, sorry use to most systems that do PD first. May still be done though...
Fiji win no BP's to Wal , 9 pts Wal, 6 pts Eng, 9 pts Aus
Eng beat Aus (max BP's to Aus, none for Eng ), 9pts Wal, 10 pts Eng, 11 pts Aus
Wal beat Aus (no BP's to Wales, max to Aus), 13pts Wal, 10 pts Eng, 13 pts Aus
Eng draw to Uru but get 4 try's, 13 pts Wal, 13 pts Eng, 13pts Aus

Even then I'm sure this works as Wal beat both Eng and Aus I don't know if that takes precedent in a 3 way tie.

 

[wayevs]

My take on the Pool:

Currently the pools is headed by:

AUS 9 Pts
WAL 9 Pts
ENG 6 Pts


And there's only 4 games left that will effect those 3 teams:

WAL v FIJ
ENG v AUS
WAL v AUS
ENG v URU

Even as a Welshman I can safely say England will get a bonus point (4+ tries) win over Uruguay, so that would leave the table as ENG 11, AUS 9, Wales 9 but with England only having one game to improve on that 11 Pts compared to Oz and Wales having 2.

Wales should beat Fiji with a bonus point, however it's a short turnaround between the tiring England win and Thursday's Fiji game, Wales have even more injury concerns and Fiji have upset Wales in world cups before, so it's not an easy game to call. I'm going to go for the bonus point win here even though I'm not confident that will happen, I'm not even confident we'll win at this point! However, If we lose then I can't see us beating Oz and this post will be a waste of typing with Oz & Eng going through.


So taking the easy (ish) games in to account, the table will probably be WAL+5, ENG+5:

WAL 14 Pts
ENG 11 Pts
AUS 9 Pts


With only these two massive games as a decider, note Oz have two chances to improve compared to ENG & Wales 1:

ENG v AUS
WAL v AUS


Which ignoring draws gives us the options below, excluding bonus points, max BPs in brackets:

AUS beat ENG & AUS beat WAL: AUS 17(19), WAL 14(16), ENG 11(13)
ENG beat AUS & AUS beat WAL: ENG 15(16), WAL 14(16), AUS 13(16)
AUS beat ENG & WAL beat AUS: WAL 18(19), AUS 13(14), ENG 11(13)
ENG beat AUS & WAL beat AUS: WAL 18(19), ENG 15(16), AUS 9(13)


Wales: Assuming Wales actually beat Fiji with the bonus point, if England lose to Oz then Wales are through. If England beat Oz and Wales lose it will likely be down to bonus points between Oz and Wales for runner up. Wales should have 1 already from Fiji with 1-2 possible when losing to Oz, Oz could get 1 for beating Wales and 1-2 losing to Eng... could be close and a possible scenario.

England: Unless Wales lose on Thursday, they have to beat Oz to go through. However, beating Oz even without a bonus point would almost guarantee progression - Oz would have to gain all 3 possible bonus points without England getting theirs to beat England's points (i.e: lose to England by less than seven WITHOUT England scoring 4 tries WHILE scoring 4 tries against BOTH England AND Wales). Even if Oz went all out for the tries, England could pick up 4 tries (think England France in the 6N) in retaliation, the BP win against Oz would ensure England are through to the QFs.

Australia: They look pretty comfortable, beat England and they're through. Only losing to both teams would definitely see them out. Losing to only England would mean a bonus point contest between them and Wales (see Wales above).

Haha now I'm am confused , oh God this group is driving me nuts with the endless possibilities God damn bonus points!. Bit gutted Williams is out but probably a blessing as he need to rest properly so he be fit and ready for Australia, this also means Cuthbert will be starting God help us if only he had a brain between those lugs!!!!

 

[RedruthRFC]

Got it wrong the game result between sides counts before PD so you need a 3 way tie, sorry use to most systems that do PD first. May still be done though...
Fiji win no BP's to Wal , 9 pts Wal, 6 pts Eng, 9 pts Aus
Eng beat Aus (max BP's to Aus, none for Eng ), 9pts Wal, 10 pts Eng, 11 pts Aus
Wal beat Aus (no BP's to Wales, max to Aus), 13pts Wal, 10 pts Eng, 13 pts Aus
Eng draw to Uru but get 4 try's, 13 pts Wal, 13 pts Eng, 13pts Aus

Even then I'm sure this works as Wal beat both Eng and Aus I don't know if that takes precedent in a 3 way tie.

That one makes sense, as you say, in a multi-way tie, head to heads go out the window and Wales' poor points difference would come into play.

All of this really doesn't seem to complicated until you start trying to work it out! Maybe a pen and paper would be more effective than trying to do it in my head!

 

[ncurd]

That one makes sense, as you say, in a multi-way tie, head to heads go out the window and Wales' poor points difference would come into play.

All of this really doesn't seem to complicated until you start trying to work it out! Maybe a pen and paper would be more effective than trying to do it in my head!

Yeah I have post-it notes everywhere.

 

[Jaguares]

imagine if both wales and england beat austrailia, that would be glorious

So do u prefer the Englishmen before the Aussies?

 

[AzaMatt]

So do u prefer the Englishmen before the Aussies?

in all honesty i would prefer they go through because we need to show the SH sides that we can all beat them, imagine the tournement ending with ireland england and wales beating the big SH 3, this tournement would go down in history. scotland may actually give the boks a scare too. id much rather prefer that then a be a boring old fan that goes "oh haha england going out early in their world cup". im glad we beat them but i do wish them well tbh

 

[HaydnH]

in all honesty i would prefer they go through because we need to show the SH sides that we can all beat them, imagine the tournement ending with ireland england and wales beating the big SH 3, this tournement would go down in history. scotland may actually give the boks a scare too. id much rather prefer that then a be a boring old fan that goes "oh haha england going out early in their world cup". im glad we beat them but i do wish them well tbh

I live in London, I'd like Wales and England to go through purely because the pubs will be pretty empty in the later stages in England get knocked out so early! Although I'll be at most of the games so I guess it doesn't matter sooo much.

 

[AzaMatt]

I live in London, I'd like Wales and England to go through purely because the pubs will be pretty empty in the later stages in England get knocked out so early! Although I'll be at most of the games so I guess it doesn't matter sooo much.

it would be great to see all the home nations go through. all being well most of us will get through. Scotland should get through their group along with the boks, France and Ireland, wales (crosses fingers) and possibly england although i cant see either of us beating Aus

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'd prefer to see Wales and Englnd go through as well mainly because I'd be glad if we avoided the chance of running into a combo of Pocock and an incompetent referee in sucessive world cup tournaments. That guy is insane on the deck especially if allowed to go at it illegally and sadly looks like getting back to his best. He is the type of player that can beat a top side single handedly.

 

[AzaMatt]

I'd prefer to see Wales and Englnd go through as well mainly because I'd be glad if we avoided the chance of running into a combo of Pocock and an incompetent referee in sucessive world cup tournaments. That guy is insane on the deck especially if allowed to go at it illegally and sadly looks like getting back to his best. He is the type of player that can beat a top side single handedly.

i think id rather us face you guys than Aus at the moment , although a wounded bok is a dangerous animal, certainly on the rampage now. also im waiting to see wether there will be a pocock and hooper vs warburton and tipuric match up

 

[kesh]

Nadolo is out for the Wales game. Big miss, have to use another goalkicker.