A Political Thread pt. 2

[The Seeker]

Trump trying to profit off his ex-wife's death. What a sleazeball.

 

[ncurd]

I see Lord Frost is wading in again in the media telling Badenoch to fold and back Truss. Maybe Team Truss are concerned that she'll be outshone in the TV debates. Yesterday Frost was trying to torpedo Mordaunt's campaign. He's not even an MP and can't vote in this contest. I assume the right of the party have asked him to be their media mouthpiece and in return he'll get another cabinet position.

I have no idea why then right wing she's their gal. She's an ex-Lib Dem pro remainer. Unlike Mordaunt whos the opposite they must feel they can control Truss.

The key thing is this isnt about Badenoch, Braverman and Tugenhat. But trying to regain ground Truss needs 18%+whatever Mordaunt gets to get ahead and that's a big ask.

Especially if Tugenhat is the next to go as you'd expect his lot to break more in Mordaunts way too.

 

[General Melchett]

I have no idea why then right wing she's their gal. She's an ex-Lib Dem pro remainer. Unlike Mordaunt whos the opposite they must feel they can control Truss.

The key thing is this isnt about Badenoch, Braverman and Tugenhat. But trying to regain ground Truss needs 18%+whatever Mordaunt gets to get ahead and that's a big ask.

Especially if Tugenhat is the next to go as you'd expect his lot to break more in Mordaunts way too.

It may reach a point where Badenoch becomes Queen maker assuming her backers don't splinter off too much after she gets eliminated. After the next vote on Monday there will be fresh (post TV debate) data and it will be clear how big the gap is between Truss and Mordaunt. Badenoch may well have 50+ backers after Monday which will probably be a good bit bigger than the gap between Truss and Mordaunt. She'll be inundated with cabinet job offers from the remaining three.

 

[ncurd]

It may reach a point where Badenoch becomes Queen maker assuming her backers don't splinter off too much after she gets eliminated. After the next vote on Monday there will be fresh (post TV debate) data and it will be clear how big the gap is between Truss and Mordaunt. Badenoch may well have 50+ backers after Monday which will probably be a good bit bigger than the gap between Truss and Mordaunt. She'll be inundated with cabinet job offers from the remaining three.

Assuming Braverman and Tugenhat roughly leave things even (not an exact science but likely). Even with Badenoch on 60 it would required 30% of them to go with her to Truss (if that's where she breaks). Then for everyone who doesn't follow her and breaks Mordaunt (who will be the front runner). I'm more expecting the bottom 2 will loose more support Monday than gain any so she probably is in best position of power now rather than Monday.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

According to the Times Bojo apparently livid at Rishi, blaming him for his departure and privately telling other MPs to vote for anyone but him.

 

[Which Tyler]

According to the Times Bojo apparently livid at Rishi, blaming him for his departure and privately telling other MPs to vote for anyone but him.

Not remotely surprising.
As I think I've said (here) before Rishi was the knife wielder, even though he waited for someone else to make the fist move to hide his. The knife wielder never wins the subsequent leadership race.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Not sure - Truss and Mordaunt tearing each other apart atm, Rishi being quite slick with his his campaign and winning first couple of rounds and bound to pick up more once the last 3 contenders get the boot. Of course, there is the conservative membership who will ultimately decide.

Yes, previous knife wielders didn't win - Hesteltine and Gove being the prime examples. But history being a guide rather predictor of future.

 

[ncurd]

She's obviously had a few days since stumbling over the question initially but nice to see a sensible answer. I can see why people are gravitating towards her the fact she has immediate attack on fuel duty as well stating income and Ni threshold will rise with inflation. Those on the face of it sound like sensible decisions (reality might be diffrent).

I might actually like her if she wasn't madcap Brexit person but then I'm never voting Tory.

 

[General Melchett]

Assuming Braverman and Tugenhat roughly leave things even (not an exact science but likely). Even with Badenoch on 60 it would required 30% of them to go with her to Truss (if that's where she breaks). Then for everyone who doesn't follow her and breaks Mordaunt (who will be the front runner). I'm more expecting the bottom 2 will loose more support Monday than gain any so she probably is in best position of power now rather than Monday.

Well let's see how much of an impact they all make at the TV debate. Badenoch would be mad to pull out now unless she has evidence that some of her backers are jumping ship. If she's confident to perform well in the TV debate then she should stay in the race and will still be in a good bargaining position after Tugenhadt gets knocked out. I think if anything it's starting to seem like a bit of desperation from the Truss camp - they know they need to overtake Mordaunt and it's clear they are starting to resort to more dark arts.

One thing is for sure, if Truss gets eliminated then we are going to have a very divided Tory party because her backers such as Rees Mogg, Baker and the far right will not get behind the new leader and will be a constant thorn in their side.

 

[ncurd]

Well let's see how much of an impact they all make at the TV debate. Badenoch would be mad to pull out now unless she has evidence that some of her backers are jumping ship. If she's confident to perform well in the TV debate then she should stay in the race and will still be in a good bargaining position after Tugenhadt gets knocked out. I think if anything it's starting to seem like a bit of desperation from the Truss camp - they know they need to overtake Mordaunt and it's clear they are starting to resort to more dark arts.

One thing is for sure, if Truss gets eliminated then we are going to have a very divided Tory party because her backers such as Rees Mogg, Baker and the far right will not get behind the new leader and will be a constant thorn in their side.

With an 80 seat majority I don't think they can cause the kind of issues they did for May, more left wingers to Blair

The issue with the TV debates is I don't think they will hold much sway until the final 2 currently its about 358 voters in Westminster rather than swaying the general public.

 

[General Melchett]

With an 80 seat majority I don't think they can cause the kind of issues they did for May, more left wingers to Blair

The issue with the TV debates is I don't think they will hold much sway until the final 2 currently its about 358 voters in Westminster rather than swaying the general public.

I'm talking about beyond 2024 when the 80 seat majority will be no more. Any Tory leader will struggle to hold the party together and win an election when Rees Mogg and his far right cronies are causing division and don't unite behind them.

Last time around Boris was so far ahead going into the final 2 that the TV debates made no difference as the party membership had already made up their minds. If Mordaunt does a Clegg or if Truss has a shocker in the TV debates over the next few days then it could make all the difference IMO.

 

[RedruthRFC]

According to the Times Bojo apparently livid at Rishi, blaming him for his departure and privately telling other MPs to vote for anyone but him.

Nothing that a quick phone call to Darius Guppy wouldn't sort out!

 

[Reiser99]

Not read all of the online debate/question session, but Sunak saying his weakness is that he is too hard working is a definite red flag for me.

Also too much talking about things that need to be done when Conservatives have been in power for over 10 years. Shouldn't they have done it by now?

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Not read all of the online debate/question session, but Sunak saying his weakness is that he is too hard working is a definite red flag for me.

Also too much talking about things that need to be done when Conservatives have been in power for over 10 years. Shouldn't they have done it by now?

God I hate people that give such bullshit interview style "weaknesses". Actually wonder if anyone in an interview likes hearing them over an actual weakness that maybe isn't serious enough to raise any concern but doesn't sound like complete bullshit.

 

[ncurd]

God I hate people that give such bullshit interview style "weaknesses". Actually wonder if anyone in an interview likes hearing them over an actual weakness that maybe isn't serious enough to raise any concern but doesn't sound like complete bullshit.

Honestly its a bullshitters questions so no wonder it get a bullshitters answer.

Only time it's ever useful if if it's and internal candidate and you can see if they have some self reflection.

 

[Which Tyler]

Honestly its a bullshitters questions so no wonder it get a bullshitters answer.

Only time it's ever useful if if it's and internal candidate and you can see if they have some self reflection.

TBF, this pretty much is an interview with internal candidates; and they had any capacity for self-reflection they'd have been deselected 3 years ago.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

TBF, this pretty much is an interview with internal candidates; and they had any capacity for self-reflection they'd have been deselected 3 years ago.

They are pretty much vampires as far as self-reflection goes.

 

[General Melchett]

Depressing that one of those will be PM. Truss is just awful and Mordaunt is unconvincing. Tugenhadt and Badenoch are probably doing better than them and they're currently in the bottom two.

 

[Amiga500]

Do ministers have to be MPs?

If not - then why the f**k are the most important jobs in the country given to people with f**k all subject matter knowledge?

 

[ncurd]