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Decided to take a look at the run in for the URC final standings given the Stormers have nothing else they are competing in and thus I have no Champions/Challenge Cup to focus on.
Looking at the run-ins, Leinster, Glasgow, Stormers and Lions seem to have the best run-ins, with those first two having 3 home games while the last two have four home games to go. A lot of teams in the congested mid-table have pretty painful run-ins with 3 away games. The ones that stand out are Cardiff, Scarlets, Connacht, Dragons and Benetton as they have 3 away games, with 2 of those being SA tour matches. Generally all the Welsh teams have a tough time though, as all of them need to do their SA tours still.
I've had a go at assigning teams points for these games to see how things might end up. Generally I was quite liberal in some losing bonus point. (How to read: The team in the row is expected to take X points in their remaining games from the teams in the columns). This ends up being particularly painful for Cardiff and Connacht, and particularly attractive to the Stormers and Lions (Stormers I think is reasonable. Lions I think at home should do well, but their relationships in the last two-three weeks outside of SA have their results a bit more shaky).
Overall, these results would lead to the following table:
With the biggest changes in current positions shown here:
Anyone I've been particularly harsh on, or thoughts on where this might all shake out?
Looking at the run-ins, Leinster, Glasgow, Stormers and Lions seem to have the best run-ins, with those first two having 3 home games while the last two have four home games to go. A lot of teams in the congested mid-table have pretty painful run-ins with 3 away games. The ones that stand out are Cardiff, Scarlets, Connacht, Dragons and Benetton as they have 3 away games, with 2 of those being SA tour matches. Generally all the Welsh teams have a tough time though, as all of them need to do their SA tours still.
I've had a go at assigning teams points for these games to see how things might end up. Generally I was quite liberal in some losing bonus point. (How to read: The team in the row is expected to take X points in their remaining games from the teams in the columns). This ends up being particularly painful for Cardiff and Connacht, and particularly attractive to the Stormers and Lions (Stormers I think is reasonable. Lions I think at home should do well, but their relationships in the last two-three weeks outside of SA have their results a bit more shaky).
Overall, these results would lead to the following table:
With the biggest changes in current positions shown here:
Anyone I've been particularly harsh on, or thoughts on where this might all shake out?
