(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[Groundhog]

Iain Henderson is just a complete genetic freak with an ever improving rugby brain. Has to tour for me.

 

[dullonien]

Henderson doesn't have stand out qualities? :huh:

Obviously I'm biased here but I've seen him tie Keith Earls in a foot race for the ball and drive blindside flankers 5m back out of a maul. He's disturbingly quick and powerful and would probably be the best third lineout jumper we could take. Don't think I've seen too many back rows with his sort of footwork either. He's pretty much all stand-out qualities.

Not to the extents I was thinking in that post, same goes for Faletau and Warburton too. Obviously all three have numerous good qualities, and you need at least one of those types of players in a backrow unit, and imo the best of the versatile is Faletau.

Henderson is certainly big, strong and a good carrier; but does he carry as well as Vunipola or Stander? He may be quick with good footwork for his size, but does he compare to Tipuric in that department? His lineout work would be beneficial, but maybe not 100% required when others are perfectly capable as well.

I'm not trying to say that Henderson isn't a very good player, and atm he's certainly in the toss-up to tour (along with a long list of backrow players). I'd have him ahead of any of the Welsh blindsides atm (although I do like the look of Moriarty). However if both Faletau and Vunipola are shoehorned into the same backrow, then Faletau slots in at 6 for me.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I think Henderson is the best tight carrier in the Northern Hemisphere if not the world. Vunipola is great given half a yard of space but can be neutralised if the pack is not on top, Henderson would be more useful than Faletau at 6 because he excels in getting the hard yards with ball in hand. It's a Henderson, Warbs, Faletau backrow for me. Vunipola and Tips or PO'M on the bench.

 

[Peat]

Not to the extents I was thinking in that post, same goes for Faletau and Warburton too. Obviously all three have numerous good qualities, and you need at least one of those types of players in a backrow unit, and imo the best of the versatile is Faletau.

Henderson is certainly big, strong and a good carrier; but does he carry as well as Vunipola or Stander? He may be quick with good footwork for his size, but does he compare to Tipuric in that department? His lineout work would be beneficial, but maybe not 100% required when others are perfectly capable as well.

I'm not trying to say that Henderson isn't a very good player, and atm he's certainly in the toss-up to tour (along with a long list of backrow players). I'd have him ahead of any of the Welsh blindsides atm (although I do like the look of Moriarty). However if both Faletau and Vunipola are shoehorned into the same backrow, then Faletau slots in at 6 for me.

Hang on, you can't ask what stand out qualities Henderson has and then discount one of them as not counting. He may not have the ones you want but his ability in the lineout is, by back row standards, stand out.

Are we using stand out as "Stands out at international level" or "Absolute best in the British Isles"? I mean, if you're telling me Henderson doesn't do the former in a great many attributes, my mouth will be hung here agape. The latter might be different - although I'm conceding might rather than is. I've no idea whether Henderson is as fast as Tipuric tbh. Go to 23:11 on this to see just how fast Henderson is - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpMicKneOx0. I've seen very few back rows come away with opposition ball so often in their own 22 as Henderson.

Also, Henderson just has good footwork. For his size, he has obscene footwork. I don't think I've really seen a 6'6" player with equal footwork. I don't think I've seen too many back rows to rival it tbh, I've never seen Tipuric elude tackles the same way (although maybe I've missed it).

Still, if you want to define stand out qualities as best in British Isles... fair enough apart from lineout. I do think that's a bad definition though.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Johnny Sexton rather audaciously reminded Dan Biggar that he's fighting Messers Ford, Russell and Jackson for the third no.10 jersey travelling to NZ next summer.

 

[welshglory]

With Sexton or Ford at 10 they'll need Halfpenny at fullback or Farrell at 12 though. Goal kicking is the only chance the Lions have

 

[ncurd]

With Sexton or Ford at 10 they'll need Halfpenny at fullback or Farrell at 12 though. Goal kicking is the only chance the Lions have

I did the Maths on this earlier in this thread. Even a 10% difference in kicking ability only means 2-3 points in an average game. We won't lose the tour through Ford's kicking if he's the only one.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Aye, neither player shirts big kicks either. Don't know about Ford but Sexton is flirting with an 80% kicking ratio in the past 12 months and if memory serves me right his howlers tend to come when his boot isn't needed.

 

[welshglory]

2-3 points could be the difference though. I can't see the Lions scoring many tries

 

[Bada-Bing!]

2-3 points could be the difference though. I can't see the Lions scoring many tries

If you can't see the Lions scoring tries, then how do you expect Lions to get close to them through goal kicking? The Lions aren't going to beat the ABs on their home patch through scoring penalties.

 

[welshglory]

If you can't see the Lions scoring tries, then how do you expect Lions to get close to them through goal kicking? The Lions aren't going to beat the ABs on their home patch through scoring penalties.

That's the problem. The only way I see it is through defence and dominating the breakdown and set pieces. Even with that dominance I doubt there is the skillset available to capitalise and score tries. The Lions backs just aren't good enough to play at the pace required to win through tries.

 

[Bluemoon]

If Gats insists on a highly structured attacking game in NZ then no, there won't be many trys in the series.

I think it'll be important to pressure the set piece and have a very fast breakdown game. I'd have Warbs, a fit O'Brien and Faletau for that. I'd like to see a strong counter attack with Watson, North and Hogg in the back three, 1/2p can cover on the bench. New Zeland are masters of the counter attack following a loose ball or play. They have an annoying pattern creating a quick fire try and often up their tempo straight after it for another. You either fight fire with fire, or try to defend them out of the game. I fear Gatland will try the latter.

 

[welshglory]

If Gats insists on a highly structured attacking game in NZ then no, there won't be many trys in the series.

I think it'll be important to pressure the set piece and have a very fast breakdown game. I'd have Warbs, a fit O'Brien and Faletau for that. I'd like to see a strong counter attack with Watson, North and Hogg in the back three, 1/2p can cover on the bench. New Zeland are masters of the counter attack following a loose ball or play. They have an annoying pattern creating a quick fire try and often up their tempo straight after it for another. You either fight fire with fire, or try to defend them out of the game. I fear Gatland will try the latter.

It is probably the most practical way to go about it. There simply isn't enough time available together to get the home nations players to play a high paced attacking game when all year round they're playing collision rugby.

If this was South Africa on the other hand I reckon we could go all out

 

[Peat]

You can't defend New Zealand out of a game. They've been held below 20 points only three times since start of 2014. You defend as well as you can but basically you have to be planning on scoring about 30 points yourself.

My impression is that Gatland realises this and was trying to do so against NZ in the summer. I thought Wales looked a lot more expansive and aggressive than usual. And I think that a full Lions backline and pack can, coherency issues aside, come a lot closer to that 30 mark than Wales did.

Point on fly-halves - against teams that matter in situations that matter*, England have scored 28.3 recurring points in games where Ford has started at fly-half. Median of 25. He's never played New Zealand at senior level, but I feel fairly sanguine he could get the Lions putting decent scores up.

*Wales, Ireland, France and RC teams in 6N, WC, or tours. No WC friendlies, tour warm-up game against Wales not included.

 

[Bluemoon]

You can't defend New Zealand out of a game. They've been held below 20 points only three times since start of 2014. You defend as well as you can but basically you have to be planning on scoring about 30 points yourself.

My impression is that Gatland realises this and was trying to do so against NZ in the summer. I thought Wales looked a lot more expansive and aggressive than usual. And I think that a full Lions backline and pack can, coherency issues aside, come a lot closer to that 30 mark than Wales did.

Point on fly-halves - against teams that matter in situations that matter*, England have scored 28.3 recurring points in games where Ford has started at fly-half. Median of 25. He's never played New Zealand at senior level, but I feel fairly sanguine he could get the Lions putting decent scores up.

*Wales, Ireland, France and RC teams in 6N, WC, or tours. No WC friendlies, tour warm-up game against Wales not included.

Yeah I'd agree with this Peat. I'm a little Gatland jaded at the moment. Perhaps harshly, I don't know. I agree he did try a more expansive style of rugby in NZ and I'm interested to see if that will continue in November with Wales.

I think Ford is a good shout, but I always feel that he needs a strong forward platform otherwise I'm not sure he's as good as some of the other fly halves when under the cosh. Tactical and accurate out of hand kicking will be important, as you don't want to give the NZ back three a chance to counter. The coherence issues could be looked at in terms of partnerships. For example, it may be good to pick a familiar 9-10 combo, such as Murray - Sexton, Youngs - Farrell etc. All big calls really, the 6N will obviously have a big bearing.

 

[ncurd]

Is a 10 going to win us a game if the forwards are under the cosh against NZ? I somehow think not.

Let's be realistic all 15 players are going to be top of their game. We can't not pick players because they perform less well when others are playing badly. We need to replace those playing badly.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Is a 10 going to win us a game if the forwards are under the cosh against NZ? I somehow think not.

I think the same but thats because I think the Lions have a snowball's chance in hell no matter what they do.

Changing the question to be specific to Ireland or England etc... I'd say that while not being able to win the game they could lose it! Look at Sexton in '13, a missed penalty and poor game management in 5 mins having been under serious pressure and doing well in the 2nd half ended our chances. The All Blacks score with such ease that a bad kick or pass is enough for them to beat you.

 

[Which Tyler]

With Sexton or Ford at 10 they'll need Halfpenny at fullback or Farrell at 12 though. Goal kicking is the only chance the Lions have

Since September 1st 2014:
Ford has hit 249 shots from the tee; from 324 efforts - Strike Rate = 76.85% + 10 DGs in 62 matches
Faz. has hit 231 shots from the tee; from 289 efforts - Strike Rate = 79.93% + 3 DGs in 52 matches

Between them, they've scored 1111 points from the tee in 114 matches; an average of 9.75 points per match.
That kicking percentage difference amounts to about 0.3 points per match.

 

[BorderReiver]

I think if the lions are going to beat NZ , they are gonna have to pick a highly offensive team. They need players that are going to score tries because thats what NZ will do .

 

[Peat]

Doing a bit of statto'ing on the Lions candidates for 10.

The following are drawn from games against England, Wales, Ireland, France, NZ, SA, Aus and Argentina in 6N/WC/Tour games since start of 2014. WC warm ups and the Eng vs Wales game this summer not counted. First summer test against Aus not counted for either Ford nor Farrell.

Ford - p9 - Avg score for - 28.33; avg score against - 20.66; tries for - 23; w8 l1
Farrell - p8 - Avg score for - 22.5; avg score against - 24.75; tries for - 15; w2 l6
Sexton - p13 - Avg score for - 19.03; avg score against - 14.69; tries for - 19; w8 d1 l4
Biggar - p17 - Avg score for - 18.76; avg score against - 25.11; tries for - 24; w5 d1 l11

This is a fairly blunt set of stats. It takes into no account the players around them, the teams they played against (Biggar and Farrell have a high percentage of games against NZ, Ford hasn't played them at senior level) or the tactics used. You can see Schmidt's restrictive game plan and Lancaster's push for more attack in those numbers right there. They don't show that Wales tend to open up more against the big teams (the 4 times Biggar's started a game resulting in 3 or more Welsh tries, 3 of them were against RC opposition) -- or the 13 games in which Wales score 11 tries. Or to what extent these guys were personally involved in scoring tries - I'll need to watch highlights for that.

But... its not complete balls either. You want to rack up points and tries? Ford's definitely in the running. I'm not sure who else should be based solely on that because of the variables but bringing home about 6 more points a night than any of his rivals is pretty clear to me. And being the only two to run up positive points differences speaks well for Ford and Sexton. Maybe you need a goal kicker somewhere else in the team if you bring them in - not convinced, but maybe - but I think you have to pay that price if that's what it takes.

eta:

For sake of completeness, I also did Finn Russell and Paddy Jackson

Russell - p10 - 20.6; 25.6; 18; w2 l8

Now, okay, Scotland play the big big guys less so that helps him. But he's surrounded by Scottish players, so it washes out even. Maybe. That's pretty impressive though and maybe he should be in the conversation more than he is.

Jackson - p5 - 22.6; 21; 11; w2 d1 l2

Bent the rules a little as I counted the WC warm up (sample of 4 felt too small) but, uh, he is on the basis of these stats the second best attacking fly-half available. I think that proves the limitation of these stats more than anything else but its still impressive and while that WC warm-up does pad it out nicely, he is hindered by the fact all 5 games have been away. So, yeah, maybe should be in the conversation, although I think we all know he only comes into it if Sexton kills himself.


Its probably not totally fair but I don't really see how anyone builds a case for Biggar other than "Gatland's biased, yo".