The Lions squad for 2021 prediction

[Welsh Exile]

I'm not sure if you massively overrate Tipurics attack or just massively underrate Watson and Curry - I don't see anything that puts him so far ahead of the others that he's a must pick just for his attack


Controversial opinion but imo he's the best(/most important) backrower Wales have (and I include Faletau and Tipuric in that)
He's like the glue that holds the backrow together, they all play significantly better when he's there - not as flashy as others but insane workrate and rarely puts a foot wrong

I can't remember if I said it in this thread or one of the 6N game threads but I wouldn't be adverse to having him on the bench

I'll rephrase, the flanker with the skill set to enable him to have the most varied attack game. I don't even think that's debatable to be honest.

I don't know how old you are but you seem very old school. All the players you love are pretty identical to each other. Even your love of WGJ is because he smashes stuff. Watson, Curry, Navidi etc etc are amazing at what they do and you need players like that in any team but you also need something a bit different if plan A isn't working.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I know it's unheard of in modern rugby, but I just prefer to pick the players best at their position skills before starting to look at what they do away from their key roles

Mako being case in point - who cares if he can throw out the back offloads if he can't hold a scrum up to save his life

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I do like having a few forwards to link the play and Tips would definitely be the best at it but also if you were to have Furlong, Itoje, Beirne and Curry with Sinckler, George and Ryan in the 23 there's less of a need for him to play that particular role, that's a lot of ball players.

Mobility can't be underrated against SA either and there's a lot of mobile options too but hard to look past Tipuric for the 20 jersey because of that, I've always feared him more off the bench than starting tbh.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I know it's unheard of in modern rugby, but I just prefer to pick the players best at their position skills before starting to look at what they do away from their key roles

Mako being case in point - who cares if he can throw out the back offloads if he can't hold a scrum up to save his life

I'm talking more about the bench for Tips as I said earlier. I don't think he's comparable to Mako as Tipuric is in good form (I actually can't ever recall a time he's been in bad form to be honest) and as much as you joke about the wing stuff I don't think anyone can, with a straight face, question the work the guy gets through and the stats back that up. Sure, he's not as destructive as Watson or Curry but can he win you turnovers over the ball? Yes. Is he solid in defence? Yes. Is he be effective at clearing out at the breakdown etc etc. If he was just this no look passing, chip and chase hiding out on the wing flanker he wouldn't be playing for Wales.

 

[Jakedood]

Tbf May has a rocket of a boot that's appeared from nowhere it feels like.

Whilst Stockdale is good, his defence is honestly woeful, even when I watch Ulster games I cringe a little

The thing with Jacob is at Full Back he's occasionally caught out positionally, he's very handy under the high ball and as a winger. Kolbe beat him one on one a few teams over v Toulouse but he does that to anyone when one v one. Also Jacob is a game breaker. I'd agree with Alpha Bro, I wouldnt take him because he's not hit top form since injury, and wasnt majestic pre injury, but as an avid Ulster fan, that boy can run, break tackles with ease and is just a quality operator. There's a reason he's rated so highly
Points re May are valid, especially when you saw how badly LRZ gassed him in 6 nations. He's got a strong all round game, very good under high ball too
I have a sneaky suspicion that Elliot Daly is gonna tour as well. He looked very dynamic last two games for England (95 mins or so) running electric lines and the big boot. He wont play 15, but a centre/wing, I can 100% see this happening.

I'm not sure if you massively overrate Tipurics attack or just massively underrate Watson and Curry - I don't see anything that puts him so far ahead of the others that he's a must pick just for his attack


Controversial opinion but imo he's the best(/most important) backrower Wales have (and I include Faletau and Tipuric in that)
He's like the glue that holds the backrow together, they all play significantly better when he's there - not as flashy as others but insane workrate and rarely puts a foot wrong

I can't remember if I said it in this thread or one of the 6N game threads but I wouldn't be adverse to having him on the bench

Tipuric might be the most like a back, but otherwise, I dont see this. Agree with Olly, Watson has been breaking tackles like crazy, Curry has a lot of explosive power in the contact and cant remember him getting hit behind the gain line and losing the contact, very like James Ryan. Tipuric has good hands, and a skilful player, but that doesnt mean he's the best attacking forward. Maybe the best attacking centre in the squad mind

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

My only thinking is, if we go for a really powerful, big 2nd row (AWJ and Itoje) AND we go for a super big powerful back row the blend might just be a bit off.

Itoje is genuinely just about the smallest lock in Tier 1 international rugby. And while I have started appreciating AWJ much more recently, he's really not particularly powerful. I'd say that playing them in the second row is what necessitates having a more powerful back row.

 

[Welsh Exile]

The thing with Jacob is at Full Back he's occasionally caught out positionally, he's very handy under the high ball and as a winger. Kolbe beat him one on one a few teams over v Toulouse but he does that to anyone when one v one. Also Jacob is a game breaker. I'd agree with Alpha Bro, I wouldnt take him because he's not hit top form since injury, and wasnt majestic pre injury, but as an avid Ulster fan, that boy can run, break tackles with ease and is just a quality operator. There's a reason he's rated so highly
Points re May are valid, especially when you saw how badly LRZ gassed him in 6 nations. He's got a strong all round game, very good under high ball too
I have a sneaky suspicion that Elliot Daly is gonna tour as well. He looked very dynamic last two games for England (95 mins or so) running electric lines and the big boot. He wont play 15, but a centre/wing, I can 100% see this happening.



Tipuric might be the most like a back, but otherwise, I dont see this. Agree with Olly, Watson has been breaking tackles like crazy, Curry has a lot of explosive power in the contact and cant remember him getting hit behind the gain line and losing the contact, very like James Ryan. Tipuric has good hands, and a skilful player, but that doesnt mean he's the best attacking forward. Maybe the best attacking centre in the squad mind

You're just agreeing with me here though, bud.

Why is he the most like a back? You already answered that question, it's because of his skills. No other flanker is as fast or has his hands or his vision in the backline (I could go on)

so, in the event where Watson and Curry or whoever aren't smashing the Boks up and getting traction in that area we'll have someone else, with a different skill set, who can offer something different and can link the play a lot better.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Itoje is genuinely just about the smallest lock in Tier 1 international rugby. And while I have started appreciating AWJ much more recently, he's really not particularly powerful. I'd say that playing them in the second row is what necessitates having a more powerful back row.

I'd say AWJ is the big one and Itoje is the powerful one. Lol.

 

[Jakedood]

I'll rephrase, the flanker with the skill set to enable him to have the most varied attack game. I don't even think that's debatable to be honest.

I don't know how old you are but you seem very old school. All the players you love are pretty identical to each other. Even your love of WGJ is because he smashes stuff. Watson, Curry, Navidi etc etc are amazing at what they do and you need players like that in any team but you also need something a bit different if plan A isn't working.

You're just agreeing with me here though, bud.

Why is he the most like a back? You already answered that question, it's because of his skills. No other flanker is as fast or has his hands or his vision in the backline (I could go on)

so, in the event where Watson and Curry or whoever aren't smashing the Boks up and getting traction in that area we'll have someone else, with a different skill set, who can offer something different and can link the play a lot better.

I'll try and give a detailed answer here

So while I get where you're coming from, roughly, I would say in the modern game you can have a variety of players, often a combination of forwards and backs. Sinckler/Furlong have lovely hands and use this to vary their games well as an example. However the ability to throw a ball out the back of a hard line, or a soft pop pass to said runner is often the most a forward needs to do, because they have enough distributors to fling the 20yd passes around with the backs in the pod
So tipuric being bale to kick/pass doesnt mean the team will be more attacking. Front foot ball, from soft shoulders, offloads and good running lines allow a high tempo game, creating space, allowing scores to happen and some sexy rugby. This is a fundamental of the sport. Tipuric on the pitch will not give me the go forward, game breaking dynamism of Watson & Curry. He's a very talented player, but Plan A can change in terms of not just hitting one out runners etc.

Quite often again, it's about moving the targets around, so not just playing one out off 9 and truck it up. Having those tip ons, out the back options, to create little hesitations and space on the gainline from the defense. So plan B isnt just "chuck a forward on who can pass, or run fast, or kick", its change your style, to maybe using the kicking game more often, allow the freedom to release offloads, demand less structure if the ball is available at a ruck, just play it, etc. Tipuric as a versatile attacking option will not change the style of the game, and is also less llikely to win a turnover or break a tackle and get me up the field. However if you go a 6/2 split, hed be a great man in 21 shirt. Because he can play on the wing if needed, as per usual

In summary, a team of distributors doesnt make you a great attacking team. Its about balance, go forward, ability to recognise opportunities and take them (usually from the backline because they are scanning the defense more often, due to a lower carry volume, in particular 9/10). England are a prime example when they ahvent had Manu around, they've struggled to penetrate a gain line, and thus looked impotent
I'd also say doing a disservice to Watson and Curry. They dont do Billy and just run straight, they run strong lines, at pace, and are very powerful, enough to push through any slightly weak shoulders.

Edit: One more thing, you said about tipuric being a hard working solid defender who can win turnovers. Thats fair game at international level, but B&I v top flankers who are more dynamic in defense, and stronger over the ball (just slightly better in traditional openside skills) I'd go for them. Its a tough game, no one is saying tipuric is **** without a tongue in cheek, but is he the cream of the crop, probably not
Forget his record in SA, because thats a team game, its his performances etc I'd look at, though Im also loathe to go on history as teams change a lot. Curry was excellent in 2018 on Tour, and is much improved since then. Watson has been smashing players about for a few years now, against all opposition. These are two phenomenal players

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I'd say AWJ is the big one and Itoje is the powerful one. Lol.

But even Alun Wyn is only 6'6 and 118kg which for a lock is... distinctly average. I'm just saying Itoje-AWJ is far from being a 'really powerful, big 2nd row'.

 

[Welsh Exile]

But even Alun Wyn is only 6'6 and 118kg which for a lock is... distinctly average. I'm just saying Itoje-AWJ is far from being a 'really powerful, big 2nd row'.

He's the heaviest one we've got isn't he?

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

He's the heaviest one we've got isn't he?

Think Gray is slightly larger but that's not really the point. It doesn't matter that AWJ is the largest we have if he's still significantly smaller than any of the SA locks bar Mostert. IMO it means that if our locks can't physically match theirs then we need a more physical back row to help deal with them.

 

[Jakedood]

AWJ is a decent tighthead lock, and thats the role i'd want from him if picked. He wouldnt be the looser of the two, I'd expect him to be doing dirty work in the rucks and mauls and leave him to that, keeping him out of the carrying side of the game
I think Hendy is the premier tighthead lock in B&I, disrupting mauls, slowing ball down, hard yards, and generally unseen work. Also vastly more powerful than his wieght suggests, one of those types of animals. But out of those two, AWJ could do the role well

Furthermore, the obsession with weight isnt everything. Weight does move weight ofc, but can be both big and dynamic, or strong and powerful. Faf de Klerk a prime example, rugby isnt as much about head on collisions, as finding soft shoulders, and powering through contacts. Size is relevant height wise for the lineout for sure, allowing a later jumper to compete for the ball still, but weight wise, the scrum is often more technique based anyway, and weight helps, but isnt the be all and end all. Itoje is light because he's also insanely lean for a second row, but he could still smash a big lad around no question

 

[Welsh Exile]

Think Gray is slightly larger but that's not really the point. It doesn't matter that AWJ is the largest we have if he's still significantly smaller than any of the SA locks bar Mostert. IMO it means that if our locks can't physically match theirs then we need a more physical back row to help deal with them.

Yeah but it's literally the biggest (AWJ) and the most powerful (Itoje) lock combo we could pick. I'm just talking about us. I'm not bothered about SA at this moment.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I'll try and give a detailed answer here

So while I get where you're coming from, roughly, I would say in the modern game you can have a variety of players, often a combination of forwards and backs. Sinckler/Furlong have lovely hands and use this to vary their games well as an example. However the ability to throw a ball out the back of a hard line, or a soft pop pass to said runner is often the most a forward needs to do, because they have enough distributors to fling the 20yd passes around with the backs in the pod
So tipuric being bale to kick/pass doesnt mean the team will be more attacking. Front foot ball, from soft shoulders, offloads and good running lines allow a high tempo game, creating space, allowing scores to happen and some sexy rugby. This is a fundamental of the sport. Tipuric on the pitch will not give me the go forward, game breaking dynamism of Watson & Curry. He's a very talented player, but Plan A can change in terms of not just hitting one out runners etc.

Quite often again, it's about moving the targets around, so not just playing one out off 9 and truck it up. Having those tip ons, out the back options, to create little hesitations and space on the gainline from the defense. So plan B isnt just "chuck a forward on who can pass, or run fast, or kick", its change your style, to maybe using the kicking game more often, allow the freedom to release offloads, demand less structure if the ball is available at a ruck, just play it, etc. Tipuric as a versatile attacking option will not change the style of the game, and is also less llikely to win a turnover or break a tackle and get me up the field. However if you go a 6/2 split, hed be a great man in 21 shirt. Because he can play on the wing if needed, as per usual

In summary, a team of distributors doesnt make you a great attacking team. Its about balance, go forward, ability to recognise opportunities and take them (usually from the backline because they are scanning the defense more often, due to a lower carry volume, in particular 9/10). England are a prime example when they ahvent had Manu around, they've struggled to penetrate a gain line, and thus looked impotent
I'd also say doing a disservice to Watson and Curry. They dont do Billy and just run straight, they run strong lines, at pace, and are very powerful, enough to push through any slightly weak shoulders.

I totally agree it's about balance. I've been banging this drum since I've been on this forum. This is how the discussion started as if you have too many players of a similar ilk it might not work. Having players who offer different things is always a good thing.

With all this talk of physicality and ******** the bed about the Boks people seem to be forgetting that Wales won 4 of the last 5 encounters with them and we don't have the biggest most powerful pack in the world and you'll never guess what, even Tipuric played in some of those victories believe it or not. Jesus, Adam Beard has even played in some of those games. I know you might not believe it but it is possible to beat them with a variety of different players in the team.

 

[Jakedood]

I totally agree it's about balance. I've been banging this drum since I've been on this forum. This is how the discussion started as if you have too many players of a similar ilk it might not work. Having players who offer different things is always a good thing.

With all this talk of physicality and ******** the bed about the Boks people seem to be forgetting that Wales won 4 of the last 5 encounters with them and we don't have the biggest most powerful pack in the world and you'll never guess what, even Tipuric played in some of those victories believe it or not. Jesus, Adam Beard has even played in some of those games. I know you might not believe it but it is possible to beat them with a variety of different players in the team.

Balance is good, but as Ive mentioned, this is the LIONS. The best of the Ireland and Britain. Most of the team will be able to play all kinds of game. Curry and Watson are as devastating in a loose unstructured game as they are in a tight one. Tipuric for me is less useful in a tight one, and though he can spot a pass, I honestly couldnt care less from my flankers, because the other two will actually create more space for others by their carrying ability.
You did yourself pigeon hole Curry and Watson as bashers, which is not the case at all. They just excel in that style of the game, and the unstructured as we saw from both in the games vs France for their respective sides
I also dont care about Wales record, because Wales arent playing them. Some welsh players should be playing, but areas Wales arent as strong in are being replaced by better ones from other countries. You are right in that size isnt everything though, for sure, but I also feel you glossed over my entire point that being a talented all round player doesnt mean you automatically improve an attack

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

With all this talk of physicality and ******** the bed about the Boks people seem to be forgetting that Wales won 4 of the last 5 encounters with them and we don't have the biggest most powerful pack in the world and you'll never guess what, even Tipuric played in some of those victories believe it or not. Jesus, Adam Beard has even played in some of those games. I know you might not believe it but it is possible to beat them with a variety of different players in the team.

The Boks pre-RWC were a completely different beast to what turned up to the RWC and what I expect them to be like on this tour. I mean Italy beat them at one point FFS, saying Wales got victories over them during that time period really doesn't say a huge amount.

I agree that we shouldn't aim to beat them at their own game as we'll never manage that but I also think that we need a pack which is physical enough to lay a solid foundation to play off of.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Balance is good, but as Ive mentioned, this is the LIONS. The best of the Ireland and Britain. Most of the team will be able to play all kinds of game. Curry and Watson are as devastating in a loose unstructured game as they are in a tight one. Tipuric for me is less useful in a tight one, and though he can spot a pass, I honestly couldnt care less from my flankers, because the other two will actually create more space for others by their carrying ability.
You did yourself pigeon hole Curry and Watson as bashers, which is not the case at all. They just excel in that style of the game, and the unstructured as we saw from both in the games vs France for their respective sides

But then we're back to skill sets aren't we. Hands, feet, vision, rugby IQ, speed. So no, I don't agree, some players have different skill sets that enable them to play all kinds of games more effectively than others.

Tipuric is extremely useful in a tight game. I mean, you are aware Gatland was our manager for over a decade, right? All our games under him have been arm wrestles and in games where he's started Tipuric against SA they've been tight games (on the whole) and he always excelled in defence.

I give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you're still joking about the wing thing but his defensive displays are tailor made for tight arm wrestles. It's just that he can also thrive in a more open game too.

 

[BPM]

The Boks might be the current world champions but they haven't played a test match since the RWC final.

They've also got a few key injuries too. If Pollard and de Jager and Snyman are all out, their gameplan and set piece might have to change quite a bit.

For example, Elton Jantjies' style of play is nothing like Pollard. He's an attack-minded, slightly erratic 10 and his game management is significantly inferior to Pollard's.

Right now, we're making assumptions on a team that last took the field in 2019.

Personally I'd rather we pick our best team and make the Boks worry about what we're bringing than vice versa.

 

[Welsh Exile]

The Boks pre-RWC were a completely different beast to what turned up to the RWC and what I expect them to be like on this tour. I mean Italy beat them at one point FFS, saying Wales got victories over them during that time period really doesn't say a huge amount.

I agree that we shouldn't aim to beat them at their own game as we'll never manage that but I also think that we need a pack which is physical enough to lay a solid foundation to play off of.

These were the teams less than a year before the WC when we beat them


Wales: 15-L Williams, 14-North, 13-J Davies, 12-Parkes, 11-Adams, 10-Anscombe, 9-G Davies; 1-Smith, 2-Owens, 3-Francis, 4-Beard, 5-Jones (captain), 6-Jenkins, 7-Tipuric, 8-Moriarty
Replacements: 16-Dee, 17-Evans, 18-Lewis, 19-Hill, 20-Wainwright, 21-T Williams, 22-Biggar, 23-Watkin.

South Africa: 15-Le Roux, 14-Nkosi, 13-Kriel, 12-De Allende, 11-Dyantyi, 10-Pollard, 9-Papier; 1-Kitshoff, 2-Marx, 3-Malherbe, 4-Snyman, 5-Mostert, 6-Kolisi (captain), 7-PS Du Toit, 8-Vermeulen.
Replacements: 16-Mbonambi, 17-T Du Toit, 18-Koch, 19-Etzebeth, 20-Louw, 21-Van Zyl, 22-Jantjies, 23-Kolbe.