June International Test: South Africa vs. Ireland [1st Test] (11/06/2016)

[saulan]

3, 7 and 13 are the boks who I really wouldn't know.

Number 3 is basically Kitshoff on the other side of the scrum except he is more prone to getting more pilfers, he is fairly young at 23, but is already captaining the Stormers.

Kolisi does a little bit of everything, but not renowned for anything. He can be a strong defender, runner and pilferer, but he can also be quite quiet.

Mapoe has been unlucky for the past two seasons not to be selected more for the Boks. There is a lot of expectation on him.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Really? I see SA having obviously better players at 2, 5 and 12 whereas Ireland are a decent bit better at 1, 9 and 13. I'd say SA would come out on top of a combined XV but there's a hell of a lot of close calls.

I can't wait to see how our defence gets on because I think Farrell will have it watertight, Schmidt also gets to focus primarily on attack having spread himself too thin in the 6nations which will have a positive effect. This will be quite a fresh team and I think we'll have a somewhat successful tour.

Tons of judgement calls, agreed.

Thing is, for example, i wouldn't say you have an edge on neither #9 nor #13. I think it's dead close and if i were to judge them by the form they've been having at club level, i'd say i'd even give RSA an edge.

I know this isn't a very particularly scientific approach, but when i see what backs from teams like the Lions or the Sharks have been doing, i have to put them (at least) one tier above of what i've seen from the Irish teams this year. Those two teams are the backbone of RSA's backs.

Then again, tons of judgement calls from my side too.

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Probably our most exciting player at the moment is our scrumhalf, Faf De Klerk, he is very nippy and has really good vision. De Allende has been really poor since he has returned and the Irish would do well to target his channel. Mapoe has been the stand out South African centre this season and is definitely a significant threat on attack.

+1000000, on all accounts.

 

[munstermuffin]

As you were kind enough to do a run down for us....
McGrath is a consistently excellent player for us and rarely has a bad game in a Leinster or Ireland shirt. Ross is extremely over the hill but still in my books the only guy capable of effectively locking down his side of the scrum at international level, so very little choice here. Best plays with great energy and is exceptional on the ground, but definitely has his off days.
Henderson much like Lood is a baby faced monster. He's only recently back from injury but I have high hoped. Toner is the complete opposite and is picked because of his technical skills and ability to run a lineout very well. Really not a big carrier.
I think the backrow has great balance. I'm sure you know Stander. He took on a lot of our carrying work during the 6N, but will have help from Henderson now. A lot of people bemoan Jordi Murphy's selection but he does a lot of work and tackles well. He was picked instead of adding another big carrier to the starting 15.
Murray is a world class player, but his form in a struggling Munster side is questionable. Jackson is the big question. There's been no point in his career where he's been ahead of Sexton but he's been playing some great stuff with Ulster this year and in my opinion has all the traits and maturity of an international ten.
Marshall has had a good run of form recently. Some will question if he's up to this level, but at the very least he's a line breaker. Henshaw is highly rated here at 12, 13 and 15, and although he's played a lot of his international games at 12, he's more than ready for this game.
Earls in my opinion is one of the few guys who can make something from nothing and put in a great defensive shift during the 6N despite his perceived defensive frailties which are only valid when he's played out of position at 13. Trimble I think is over the hill and not in any particularly great form. That said no one is more seasoned than Trimble and he's a bit of a warrior. Payne at 15 is something a lot of Irish fans are excited for. He's been picked at 13 because while he's not particularly impressive as an attacker from 13 he marshalls the defence very well. At 15 he's a great attacker and has a great rugby IQ for Ulster. Real point of interest for us.
The bench is pretty ok. Cronin and Dillane are both great carriers and the definition of impact subs. Dillane in particular is a beast and he isn't starting simply because Toner is needed to run the set piece. Bealham interestingly is mainly a TH but was brought as our LH replacement because the alternatives aren't trusted. Ruddock a great carrier too. Marmion is quite snappy and likes to play flowing rugby but isn't wonderfully well rounded. His box kicking has really held him back from earning caps. Madigan has had a horrible run of form and probably has one foot in France already. For this reason Jackson simply can't be a bust. I love Gilroy as a running player but he has weaknesses for sure

Very good summary. I'd possibly disagree on Jordi Murphy as I don't rate him as high as some here but accept he had form toward end of season and alternatives aren't much different.

On Toner I wasn't a fan at start but in fairness he's vital to set piece but I'd also say he's the best hand of any of the front 5 forwards on tour and Dillane offers impact off the bench that Toner wouldn't. He's a guy that will go about his job under radar.
On backs I've no fears of PJ he's earned his shot. And FINALLY we've picked an attacking 15 who I think could really compliment and set Earls away. It's came by way of injuries but Schmidt has picked a very good and exciting side. I wasn't really buzzing to watch but now I can't wait.
I do think we will get 1 tour win but it'll have to be at start or at end if they've the series won and AC experiments.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Number 3 is basically Kitshoff on the other side of the scrum except he is more prone to getting more pilfers, he is fairly young at 23, but is already captaining the Stormers.

Kolisi does a little bit of everything, but not renowned for anything. He can be a strong defender, runner and pilferer, but he can also be quite quiet.

Mapoe has been unlucky for the past two seasons not to be selected more for the Boks. There is a lot of expectation on him.

Thanks! Sounds like Malherbe is a more dynamic player but maybe not as strong in the scrum than Ross. Kolisi sounds like Murphy reincarnate and it'll be interesting to see how Mapoe gets on against Henshaw who has really come into his own in the Irish centre and been a great attacking 13 for Connacht.

Tons of judgement calls, agreed.


Thing is, for example, i wouldn't say you have an edge on neither #9 nor #13. I think it's dead close and if i were to judge them by the form they've been having at club level, i'd say i'd even give RSA an edge.


I know this isn't a very particularly scientific approach, but when i see what backs from teams like the Lions or the Sharks have been doing, i have to put them (at least) one tier above of what i've seen from the Irish teams this year. Those two teams are the backbone of RSA's backs.


Then again, tons of judgement calls from my side too.


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+1000000, on all accounts.

That's fair and you've probably got a more accurate approach. I'm going purely on international reputation and the odd Stormer's match I've watched fleetingly. Same with the Irish lads because I, rather optimistically, think that working with better players and coaching staff will get somewhere near their best. Murray is probably an exception considering he excels with a commanding 10.

 

[Fitzo]

Ireland are going to be tested hard in this game for sure. I think if the more experienced players can step up and show the newer guys how test rugby is played we could be in with a chance. But I think if Payne doesn't play at 15 well it could cost us big time as the Boks will be looking to smash through and weaknesses in the defence will be very noticeable and will taken advantage of.

 

[profitius]

Loads of unknowns in this match. I think its safe to say that Ireland will be kicking the ball often. How are the Boks under the high ball?


Defensively Ireland are probably more solid I would wager. Schmidt and Farrell would prefer SA to try and overpower them rather than go wide. Ireland have been consistently caught out on the wide channels for a while now and I'd say the Boks might have better attackers. Then again, is De Allende a good passer?
Ireland do have a good bench though. Cronin is very fast, Furlong is a big upgrade on Ross, Dillane can make an impact too.


Main concern for Ireland is Jackson and Madigan. Jackson is very good passer and good at getting the backline moving but his kicking isn't the greatest. Madigan has been dreadful this season and gone backwards. I'd say if Jackson is playing well, Madigan will be kept on the bench.

 

[JohnKA]

Our half back pair is going to cause chaos in the Irish backline , faf maybe new but he can give Lambie some decent ball and that is lots of problems for the Irish I still think the Irish are going down hard at NEwlands , only my 2 cents

 

[SomeOke]

It's really just about impossible to predict what will happen for me, largely because I don't know how good the Irish side might be, and we have remarkably few caps for once. It's certainly the back line with a lot of potential to cause serious problems but almost every link in the change is a new one. Lambie and Faf haven't played together and neither have de Allende and Mapoe. The Sharks back three is pretty solid and between le Roux, Pietersen and Lambie the high ball shouldn't be too much of a problem, indeed most of our experience is in our back three.

If the Irish have opportunities in the back one imagines it will come through the middle, with our centres being a new combination and DdA never really being the best defender anyway. Our forward pack should be very strong but no stronger than it has been over the past couple years, even our youngsters in that pack are probably fairly well known by now (with the exception of Kolisi).

Anyway enough with the politeness, pretty soon the fields of Cape Town will be drenched in the blood and tears of our enemies!

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

My 2 cents:

1 Mtawarira has been in better form this year than last year or even 2014. He is dominating but won't let you down. I expect impact off the bench at the set piece from Kitshoff. Both players work hard off the ball though Beast isn't as explosive as he was the frist two years of his test carreer.
2 Strauss looked horribly off the pace at the start of the year but TBF he has steadily improved as teh season has gotten on. We will miss Bismarck in test rugby and I do think young Malcolm Marx is a better player as is and is our long term future at hooker with Armand van der Merwe being what Strauss was at his best- a loose canonball- only more so and the perfect player to bring in off the bench. The only issue here is neither of those three have been included. At least Marx will get a shot with the 'A' side (even if its off the bench, hopefully) but its criminal Van der Merwe isn't considered in the top 5 hookers within SA (not couting Bismarck here). Thats politics for you. This is where the quota system raises questions. I am going to assume Mbonambi is here based on the color of his skin because I feel I can say that close enough to being objective Marx and Van der Merwe are better players both at set piece and around the park. Now the question is is that fair to the player- Mbonambi I mean? We have seen some bizarre selections in the. past that we put down to the coach's whimsy. This might be the case here. This is where I am struggling with my own head.
3 Malherbe would've been startng at the RWC and before that if it weren't for his horrible run of injuries. He hasn't been as absolutely dominating in the scrum as previously but still I trust him to put some pressure on at scrum time and he is surprisingy dynamic for a fat fellow. Redelinghuys is the right call on the bench IMO. I think Van Dyk looks the stronger scrummiger but Redelinghuys adds more around the park and you can't afford your props to be baggage at test rugby in general play anymore. We learnt that with Du Plessis though TBF he had a good run at the end though we kept him through poor form for two whole years.
4 Etzebeth is fit so he is included. Best no.2 line-out jumper in the world IMO, surprising pace and generates meters for us whether carrying or tackling. Takes a while to get back to his best back from injury every time though (which he has to do all too often) so hoping he gets back up to speed fast. He has learnt to curb his enthusiasm without losing his edge. Already a senior player in our group at a very young age.
5 De Jagerhasn't been in extrodinary form in SR but TBH he never has especially with the Cheetahs who play 7s rather than Union which doesn't suit the big man. I can't remember him not having a stand-out game in a green jersey though. Automatic inclusion with PS du Toit (our form lock) having barely passed fitness. I expect PS du Toit to make huge impact off the bench though. This is where I feel we have shot ourselves in the foot pandering to the politicians. Imagine all of PS du Toit, Jaco Kriel and Armand van der Merwe coming in off the bench 30 minutes to go! Not that Whiteley is poor but Jaco Kriel has been leading all SA stats in both CC and SR for two years now.
6 Louw I don't know what sort of form Louw is in so can hardly make comment. TBH I'd rather have had Kriel start but in the end I expect if he weren't injured Marcell Coetzee would've had the jersey so looking long term its a bit of a moot point.
7 Kolisi is the Jack of trades, master of none. He'll make his tackles, carry strong, has a little pace and a step though not the best, get one line break, make two offloads and pilfer one ball. All-in-all a player that will add value.
8 Vermeulen again I couldn't say for form as I havn't been following Toulon especially closely but my thoughts are that Vermeulen's game isnt so much form dependant so you can't really go wrong having him starting. Whiteley off the bench is cool because I can see him combining well with De Klerk who I think should go the entire 80 please.

9 De Klerk is my MVP along with Lambie. Too long we've played without a 9; praying Du Preez will rediscover form, hoping Pienaar will get some urgency and not look stoned out of his mind whilst playing or that Hougaard or Reinach will not try to kick a ball. If Paige comes on early we lose 14 points IMO.
10 Lambie has been in the form of his life and what timing with Pollard out and Jantjies (also in good form) struggling with ****le. Its been a while (Joost's days?) that our 9/10 combination is our main strength. Very excited. I don't see Jantjies as being a step down but have my reservations whether he will be as impactful for the Bokke in tighter games as he is for the Lions on the Highveld. He deserves the chance to prove himself though.
11 Mvovo has done it in the past for us. TBH I'd rather have had Combrinck who I feel is our form winger and has been for a while now.
12 De Allende is lucky IMO to be here. I hope he repays Coetzee's faith. We know what he can do. I just hope he plays Mapoe into space and makes his tackles. His coming back into the fold coincided with the Stormers starting to lose games. He just doesn't look like he is taking his rugby seriously. Hopefully on the bigger stage he steps up.
13 Mapoe could feel unlucky not to have played at the RWC. Excited to see what he can do in green. Jesse Kriel is the perfect player off the bench to cover for the centers or Le Roux even if he is a tad off his best.
14 Petersen has been in surprisingly fine form. He has been playing very intellegently and is as safe as ever which is what saw him being continued to be selected in the first place. A yard off the pace of his youth but he manages to make the breaks and finish. His positional play is exceptional and he works hard off the ball. A very mature player now. Will take a lot of pressure off Le Roux.
15 Le Roux is Le Roux. Mixes the sublime with the below mediocre but maybe a little bit less so of late? A tower under the high ball and a threat on the counter. His defense is alright but he has his off days. Kriel off the bench won't change much as he is electric from the back or at least was. He hasn't played at 15 too much though.


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It's really just about impossible to predict what will happen for me, largely because I don't know how good the Irish side might be, and we have remarkably few caps for once. It's certainly the back line with a lot of potential to cause serious problems but almost every link in the change is a new one. Lambie and Faf haven't played together and neither have de Allende and Mapoe. The Sharks back three is pretty solid and between le Roux, Pietersen and Lambie the high ball shouldn't be too much of a problem, indeed most of our experience is in our back three.

If the Irish have opportunities in the back one imagines it will come through the middle, with our centres being a new combination and DdA never really being the best defender anyway. Our forward pack should be very strong but no stronger than it has been over the past couple years, even our youngsters in that pack are probably fairly well known by now (with the exception of Kolisi).

Fair points as always.

Anyway enough with the politeness, pretty soon the fields of Cape Town will be drenched in the blood and tears of our enemies!

Agreed!

You forgot the excrement though that Malherbe and co will squeeze out of the Irish scrum and when the likes of De Allende comes trampling over the unconscious.

 

[saulan]

All pretty accurate in my opinion. Just one thing though

1 Mtawarira has been in better form this year than last year or even 2014. He is dominating but won't let you down. I expect impact off the bench at the set piece from Kitshoff. Both players work hard off the ball though Beast isn't as explosive as he was the frist two years of his test carreer.

Kitshoff isn't on the bench.

 

[TRF_heineken]

All good assessments by my fellow Saffas.

Remember that Matthew Proudfoot is now part of the Springbok coaching team, who actually moulded Malherbe into the Springbok he is today. I think that our pack will be very strong and abrasive with a tad more skill than what we were used to in the past.

Beast, Strauss and Malherbe are all very good at Scrumtime, and they add value in cleaning rucks and as running options. Our locks are all in great form, Eben and Lood will cause havoc at lineout time, and also with ball in hand. PSDT on the bench will be a great addition at the end of the game. We know what our backrow can do, and I'm interested to see the 3 (who all played for AC at the Stormers) play as a combination.

Our Backline excites me. Faf is exactly what we need to give our backline more firepower and good front foot ball. I'm not too worried about De Allende, we have seen so often that a player struggles in SR and then performs brilliantly for the National team, I used the example of Nonu before. Mapoe deserves his spot and I hope he shows what he can do as he's been devastating in SR. As for our back 3, All good under the high ball, although I don't think that tactic will be used as much as we did in the past, and with ball in hand they can be a handful.

My biggest concern is our defence, and with Van Graan and AC there, my concerns are somewhat put aside, as both of them have shown that their structures works very well. Though the problem is that we might become too defensive, and I don't want that at all.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

@TRF_heineken - I don't think with De Klerk there we will fall into the 'defensive mindset' trap even with the pack essentially being a 'Stormers' pack. That little firecracker doesn't know how to slow down! I hope you're right regaring De Allende. We'll have to wait and see. He is the only non-Lions, non-Sharks player in the backline and at the center of the line. Hope he isn't the weak link and takes speed off of the ball. But I trust Lambie to know when to use De Allende and when to skip him or go the other direction. De Allende used right and if he hits his straps can cause damage. He has a handy offloading and kicking game though we don't see it all too often or at least we've not seen it recently as he seems to carry every ball up of late looking like he is trying to make a point or something.
On the high balls, its good we have multiple players who should do the business because Ireland are wont to go that route since they've had success against us that way before.
@saulan- my-my how my short-term memory has let me down, thank you for the correction. Nyakane is solid enough. I see Kitshoff as the better option but still. Maybe Kitshoff in for Beast in a year or two. But that can only happen if he plays in SA because he won't have 35 caps or whatever the requirement will be by then. Sad, cause his shown the early promise but despite being the same age Etzebeth is at 44 caps and Kitshoff at 0. Both have had issues with injury. Kitshoff's has just been at precisely the wrong times every time.

 

[TRF_heineken]

@TRF_heineken - I don't think with De Klerk there we will fall into the 'defensive mindset' trap even with the pack essentially being a 'Stormers' pack. That little firecracker doesn't know how to slow down! I hope you're right regaring De Allende. We'll have to wait and see. He is the only non-Lions, non-Sharks player in the backline and at the center of the line. Hope he isn't the weak link and takes speed off of the ball. But I trust Lambie to know when to use De Allende and when to skip him or go the other direction. De Allende used right and if he hits his straps can cause damage. He has a handy offloading and kicking game though we don't see it all too often or at least we've not seen it recently as he seems to carry every ball up of late looking like he is trying to make a point or something.
On the high balls, its good we have multiple players who should do the business because Ireland are wont to go that route since they've had success against us that way before.
@saulan- my-my how my short-term memory has let me down, thank you for the correction. Nyakane is solid enough. I see Kitshoff as the better option but still. Maybe Kitshoff in for Beast in a year or two. But that can only happen if he plays in SA because he won't have 35 caps or whatever the requirement will be by then. Sad, cause his shown the early promise but despite being the same age Etzebeth is at 44 caps and Kitshoff at 0. Both have had issues with injury. Kitshoff's has just been at precisely the wrong times every time.

I'm very interested to see if the high ball option will be used as much as in the past. Kearney isn't at fullback, and it was him that caused the most havoc last time out with the high ball. Then add to that, the new strict refereeing of offences with players in the air, makes me think that it's not an option we'd explore as much as we did in the past, especially with the runners we have in the backline. If we're going to kick, then it'll be for territory, or the odd cross-kick or chip kick.

It's interesting to read the article about AC's plan for Kitshoff, and I like AC's honesty about what he sees in a player. I also think that Kitshoff has the ability to be one of the best props in the world.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I'm bored as so here's the pointless task of a combined XV!

1. McGrath - a more well rounded player and better in the scrum if not explosive like the Beast
2. Strauss - Stronger ball carrier and not behind Best by much without the ball, better line out player too.
3. Don't know - Ross is just 50 mins of scrum at this stage in his career so I'd guess Malherbe but don't know the guy!
4. Etzebeth - He has 21 more caps than Henderson and that's really the difference both can be explosive match winners on their day. Etzebeth is probably a slightly better line out player.
5. De Jäger - Doesn't give up much to Toner in the line out and work rate and a far more useful player with the ball.
6. Stander - Similar to Louw if not as tactically astute, in astronomically better form.
7. Calling this a tie - Jacks of all trades etc... Won't set the world alight but won't let their sides down.
8. Vermuelan - Heaslip is the form guy but doesn't bring as much to the game as Duane anymore.
9. Murray - More of an all rounder than Faf and can dictate the pace of play better. Strong footing needed elsewhere to cash in here.
10. Ehhhh... Two on form 10's who have yet to reach their potential consistently in green! I rate neither extremely highly so gonna ***** out and call another tie.
11. Earls - Has a more well rounded game than Mvovo while both are prone to frustrating blunders.
12. De Allende - Can be really destructive, not necessarily a better player than Marshall but if he's firing I think he wins the match up of styles.
13. Henshaw - Not knowing Mapoe this probably hasn't a lot of credence to it I'm just of the opinion that if he was as good as Henshaw I'd know who he is...
14. JPP - Don't think there's ever been a time he wasn't better than Trimble... Maybe 2014 but certainly not now.
15. Payne - Huge fan of Le Roux but he's been off colour for a while now, if Payne's Ulster form can translate into this match the Boks back three will be forced to keep their focus.

6 all with the "ties" probably favouring the Boks at 3 and 10. If it were played on paper the boks tight five win this game for them!

 

[saulan]

13. Henshaw - Not knowing Mapoe this probably hasn't a lot of credence to it I'm just of the opinion that if he was as good as Henshaw I'd know who he is...

Just providing you more info on him so you understand what we see in him.
He is currently sitting tied top of the try scoring table and 6th on the clean breaks table.

Here are is statistics for the season according to Fox Fantasy Super Rugby:

And this is his ranking among the centres in Super Rugby:

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Just providing you more info on him so you understand what we see in him.
He is currently sitting tied top of the try scoring table and 6th on the clean breaks table.

Here are is statistics for the season according to Fox Fantasy Super Rugby:

And this is his ranking among the centres in Super Rugby:

Cheers! Really learning a lot on this thread! Looks like another clash of styles in the centre! It'll be interesting to see if coming up against an experienced international in Henshaw, who has played most his rugby in green at 12 but is a better 13, he can keep those impressive numbers. I'm getting really excited for this match now and haven't a clue what to expect. Here's hoping I'm not given a shift in the bar at late notice tomorrow because I want to drinking pints rather than pouring them tomorrow!

 

[saulan]

Cheers! Really learning a lot on this thread! Looks like another clash of styles in the centre! It'll be interesting to see if coming up against an experienced international in Henshaw, who has played most his rugby in green at 12 but is a better 13, he can keep those impressive numbers. I'm getting really excited for this match now and haven't a clue what to expect. Here's hoping I'm not given a shift in the bar at late notice tomorrow because I want to drinking pints rather than pouring them tomorrow!

And one last bit on Faf and Mapoe, here is an article on the two by an Irish site, with clips to see how they play.
http://www.the42.ie/analysis-ireland-south-africa-mapoe-de-klerk-2814464-Jun2016/

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Just a few highlights (for what its worth) of some of the SA players that might be unknown factors from what I can remember of recent games (and which I could find!).

Siya Kolisi:
Bok debut:

last game played:

Bit of everything:

Not the best jackler but can pilfer the ball, not the best passer but has made a few good offloads, a bit of a jinking runner if not fast, can make good tackles and take the ball up in the tight even if not the most physically dominant.

I have a bit of a soft spot for Kolisi because I played 1 game alongside him at UCT. I played for the 4th team and we were a bit of a scratch side and one of our players didn't pitch. Kolisi said he was up for it to play off the bench if needed despite having finished his game for teh 1st team. The opposition said sure. Well, come the 70 minute mark on comes Kolisi and dots down two tries off the back of a retreating scrum one from long range for the win (just). Good memories.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Faf de klerk:
A few players feature here but I'm giving this to De klerk:
Last game played:

A bit of why everyone were saying he should be at the RWC last year:

 

[Peat]

6 all with the "ties" probably favouring the Boks at 3 and 10. If it were played on paper the boks tight five win this game for them!

Its the biggest advantage SA have. No in the set piece, but if the game picks up pace then Ross, Toner and Best will find themselves increasingly useless. Not sure Ireland have the presence on the floor to slow things down there - plenty can, but maybe they won't, Best will, but not if the game moves too fast.

I'm guessing that's not gonna be too notable and things will end up fairly even and error strewn - the team that finds the most moments of accuracy wins - but could end up an issue.

Lot of ways for Ireland to exit their territory though, and a lot of players with strong distribution. If they get good territory and the front foot, could get some progress going.