All Blacks squad for the Lions named on the 8th... predictions?

[Penne Rara]

putting forward a bolter in laumape is a big enough call, having 2 bolters? unheard of
but aso does need to be up there but i reckon laumape just edges aso as a mid fielder.
definately ahead of SBW, but then i was against SBW being in the 2015 WC squad and he definitely delievered then.
whilst i'd prefer laumape i'm at ease with SBW cos he's a proven big game player.
i'd rather see mounga or sopoaga instead of cruden. big call i know
and naholo ahead of jSavea,
either way ABs will be well served by any of these guys getting the start.

I agree about Ngani being better than Aso as a midfielder. Still not an all-round second five, but he definitely brings more options than Aso who's essentially a finisher. Talented line breaker, good attacking kicker as well, does his offloads... his main shortcoming is to become completely immaterial in front of an organized defense that rushes forward. His defense is not top notch either but he does some handy tackles from time to time.

SBW being a big game player, yes! But that's when ABs enjoy a great deal of possession... and late in the second half. He's a proven attacking threat off the bench, but I wouldn't trust him as the starting second five. He can't tackle above the waistline just like in rugby league anymore, and the Lions will just run over him if he doesn't display good technique in his tackles. He's not a strong and reliable defender, so I'm a bit mitigated.

Mounga as the replacement first five... Why not! He's got talent, the carteresque ability to make the right decision and keep cool under pressure. He's not the most effective goalkicker even though he slotted most of his kicks this season. But if we're being consistent there that goalkicking is not that much of an issue, let's just choose Cruden. He knows better than any other first five (except Barrett) how to attack the line, and he has the speed and elusiveness to do so. If we want a bench made of impact players, but who are also reliable, Cruden is the safe option. He hardly ever makes a mistake. Third on the list should be Sopoaga. He always brings that little touch of craziness at the end of the match, and tries some bold moves as well. As the premier NZ goalkicker, he deserves to be part of the extended group.
Experience should also be a factor, and Cruden or Sopoaga know how mentally tough test matches are. As talented as one can be, test matches are a different kettle of fish.

I agree with you on Naholo being ahead of Julian Savea. Well, there are heaps of wingers who are ahead of him right now. He got busy on Saturday, and that's the way he should be playing. But not during one match or two only. He should be playing like that week in, week out.

Rieko Ioane is a talented player alright. But he's not that consistent on defense and just like Savea, he has some moments of brilliance and others where he goes missing. James Lowe is smaller, his physique looks more ordinary, but he's a hungry player and consistently brings something positive in attack.
I truly feel for Hansen! Deciding who can be in the squad and who doesn't deserve a call is a tough decision to make.

 

[Ground We Won]

This is actually incredibly hard to pick. There are loads of combinations and choices. Players only marginally better than others and some of their day better than others.

99% sure the first test is going to look like this;

9.A.Smith
10.B.Barrett
11.J.Savea
12.R.Crotty
13.ALB
14.I.Dagg
15.B.Smith

21.TJ Perenara 22.A.Cruden 23.M.Fekitoa

The doubt being if Dagg/NMS starts ahead of Naholo or not since coming back from injury. If Dagg is 100% fit, I think he will get the nod.

I think NMS sadly might be out of time? But he's the best choice for 14 when he's fit.

The Samoan game should give us some idea who's 100% fit and what starting XV team Hansen wants to roll with.

Here's the the backline I want;

9.A.Smith
10.B.Barrett
11.W.Naholo
12.R.Crotty
13.ALB
14.NMS
15.B.Smith

21.TJ Perenara 22.L.Sopoaga 23.D.McKenzie

 

[Ground We Won]

I'm heavily in favour of having Damien McKenzie on the bench. I think he will have the same affect as B.Barrett off the bench prior to 2016.

I think McKenzie is as close to being a must pick as you will ever get without actually being a must pick. The kid can simply flip a game on its head. It would be really nice to have that weapon up our sleeve on the bench. I don't think the Lions would be prepared for him either, there's no one quite like him in world rugby at the moment.

Surely he has to be in close contention. NMS and Daggs injury concerns also back this up. I really think it's important he sees game time in this series as well. I get visions of a Carteresque 2005 performance from him.

 

[mania]

I agree about Ngani being better than Aso as a midfielder.
If we want a bench made of impact players, but who are also reliable, Cruden is the safe option.
Rieko Ioane is a talented player alright. But he's not that consistent on defense.
James Lowe is smaller, his physique looks more ordinary, but he's a hungry player and consistently brings something positive in attack.
I truly feel for Hansen!

agree Penne Rara.
ngani offers a bit more in attack and he consistently breaks the d line or at a minimum bends it.
youve changed my mind about cruden. he's a reliable ABs soldier and deserves his shot at the lions. he's given his all and as you say knows how to attack the line. mounga and sopoaga's time will come.
reiko isnt the finished product yet. heaps of potential but has a lot more about centre to learn about.
lowe wont get a test jersey as he's signed overseas. he deserves one as imo he's 2.0 version of dagg at his best. real shame lowe didnt get a call for the ABs cos i imagine he wouldve stayed if he had but unfortunately for him ABs were so blessed with talent in the back 3. lowe however is one of the most creative on attack, has the hunger to make plays as often as possible and has a booming kick that is only rivaled by a hand full of players in the world. the attacks lowe creates from his kicks is often and awesome. whilst they are always 50/50 options at best lowe always imporves his chances with a good kick and chase.

 

[mania]

I'm heavily in favour of having Damien McKenzie on the bench.

agree GWW. dMac will be as dynamic on his debut as cullen was on his.
the only downside about dMac is his error rate. dMac makes a lot of high stakes plays and they dont always come off. most of them do but his accuracy needs to improve...but then again you dont want to curtail his desire and creativity on attack.
but its getting to the stage where we absolutely have to see him in an ABs jersey. the sooner he gets into the ABs environment, and gets on the field, the sooner the evolution of dMac as an All Black can begin. that prospect is exciting

 

[Penne Rara]

What Damian needs is constant support, but that's asking for the Moon... he's just too fast and too elusive that by the time support players arrive at the breakdown, the ball had been stolen at least ten times. He makes everyone look so slow around him.

 

[Larksea]

yeah dmac seems like a good bench option and has the potential to have a similar impact on games that Barrett became known for.
I do have concerns about this expectation though. Simply because its not the role he has been at the chiefs at the chiefs he basically starts every game every week and plays 80min. The bench role is simply different and just expecting him to thrive is a mistake, it will take adjustments.
he also deserves it his last two seasons have been phenomenal anyone questioning his defense has well and truly been silenced heck lets compare his tackling to ben Smith

Ben 14 tackles 7 misses at 67%
bmac 44 tackles 7 misses at 86%

mbacs turnovers are a bit of a worry but I dont think it is too bad considering the high level of involvement he has in games, he is constantly involved. Similar players concede less than half the number of turnovers but they also touch the ball less than half as much as bmac does across the board for the amount of game time it looks like a bad stat but for the amount of activity overall its not as bad as it looks. Still it is a key area and one that he should focus on how his defense and other areas are rock solid.

 

[Ground We Won]

Big tackling stats from Damien. That's some great work he's done to improve his defensive game. He's also very tough physically, he's not injury prone (touch wood), which is really important for continuity too. Another aspect of his game that's really impressed me is his tactical kicking. His overall game is world class and he's still got room to improve, he's going to be huge.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

I too like the idea of DMac on the bench - the kid definitely deserves it, his level of play this year has been phenomenal and he's the type who could come on and make a mockery of tiring defences - but I don't see it happening because it doesn't fit the balance of the side.

McKenzie covers fullback and 1st five, 2 positions that already have ample cover in the 23 (Cruden covers 1st 5, both Barrett and our right winger cover fullback). If McKenzie were to be our no.23, we'd have no midfield cover. If one of them went down, you'd have to move Bender into 13 where he hasn't played for 3 or 4 years. Having a midfielder on the bench (presumably SBW, but maybe Fekitoa or Moala) gives you specialist cover in every position, which is crucial. McKenzie is awesome, but he's not worth putting in there if it means having no real cover in 2 positions.

The only option really would be to have him on the bench instead of Cruden and use him the same way we used to use Barrett - as the 1st 5 and FB cover - which would allow for the specialist midfield cover to still be there. But that would mean if Barrett went down early, McKenzie would have to run the show from 10 - a position he has hardly played for two years - up against the toughest side there is. That's not gonna happen.

 

[Ground We Won]

Sopoaga covers 12 very efficiently. I think Cruden is the less dynamic player and his stock has dropped since he can't kick. Bit of a no brainer for me since he's leaving too. Still does a great job though, but just food for thought.

 

[AB1]

It's fair to say, at the moment New Zealand is bereft with a sea of talent to pick our back line, perhaps the best it's ever been!

We have 20 back line players who could make any other test team in the world, but unfortunately we can only start 7 of them.

What is really encouraging is where perhaps some of the front line players who are coming back from injury, are slowly coming back into the zenith of their powers. Alongside that we have a huge swathe of players who have really outperformed this year, and have surely caught the eye of Steve Hansen and the rest of the selection panel.

The likes of Aso and Laumape for the Hurricanes have been simply outstanding, and cut thru holes like a hot knife thru butter. Between them as a centre pairing this year I believe they have chalked up the record for the most tries in a Super Rugby campaign. Then apart from Damien Mackenzie, you get a couple of bolters of fullbacks, Melani Nanai for the Blues simply sensational hot stepper, and David Havili for the Crusaders playing so well at full back that Israel Dagg returning from injury had to play on the wing last week.

At the end of the day however, Steve Hansen has a very tested program that all players must survive, before they get the nod for the top job as an All Black starter. And this means they must have passed the baptism of fire of playing in the white hot intensity of test match rugby, putting their sweat, blood, and tears on the line to defend at all cost the proud New Zealand test record, whereby in 120 years of test rugby we've won 75% of the time, being the winniest team of any of any sport in history.

That means he will go for the tried and tested servants who have delivered under the most pressure in the past, think the likes of the famous injury time winning team in Dublin 2013, or more recently the team in the Rugby World Cup Final 2015. So if they're fit;

15 Ben Smith
14 Israel Dagg (Nehe Milner-Skudder if he returns to playing in time)
13 Malakai Fekitoa
12 Sonny Bill Williams
11 Julian Savea
10 Beauden Barrett
9 Aaron Smith

The substitutes will be contentious as we have so many players, many mentioned above, who have the ability to make a huge impact of the bench. The beauty is, if any of our starters falter, for whatever reason, Steve Hansen will be quite ruthless in substituting or dropping them. This has long been the superior strength of the All Blacks, the competition to make the top side is so intense, that it keeps the pressure on the top team to play out of their skins for every match....anything less they will be warming the bench, or worse on a one way flight to Europe or Japan, to ply their trade elsewhere!

Importantly if there had to be a hypothetical combined team, I think i could only see 1 or tops 2 British and Irish Lions players making it into the back line. Still rugby is played on grass not paper....it'll be a fantastic test match series!

Kamil Stender

 

[SomeOke]

9) TJ Perenara
10) Beuden Barret
11) James Lowe
12) Ngani Laumape
13) ALB
14: Waisake Naholo
15) Ben Smith

To me this is the best back line you can select on form and balance.
I know you guys like to play a secondary fullback on the one wing but Lowe can fill that role with his huge boot.

The only hard decision for me is Naholo or NMS and Naholo inches it with NMS back from injury. Smith is out of form and TJ is in the form of his life, with Crotty injured the 12 debate isn't really a debate IMO, ALB is perhaps the only player who isn't a superstar but 13 is a vague weakness at the moment Fekitoa is too inconsistent and the other 13's aren't quite there yet. I could also countanence Naholo and NMS as wings but I feel like it's hard to leave Lowe out after the season he's had. D-Mac at 23 100%.

Just my scrub opinion, but I feel this back line is just about unstoppable. Is there any chance they don't score 30+ points a game even agaisnt the Lions.

 

[Ground We Won]

If you want to pick on form ALB would not make it. His form with the Chiefs this season hasn't been good.

1 try this season. His saving grace was his form with the All Blacks last season this and his link play is very good. Fekitoa has actually been the form centre this season. Whether people want to admit that or not. I find it strange.

People seem to have held on to a few bad performances of his while forgetting all the good ones.

Fekitoa actually has another dimension to his game the others don't have. He has a kicking game. Which will be very handy vs the Lions rush defense. It's possible Hansen will go with Fekitoa now.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

If you want to pick on form ALB would not make it. His form with the Chiefs this season hasn't been good.

1 try this season. His saving grace was his form with the All Blacks last season this and his link play is very good. Fekitoa has actually been the form centre this season. Whether people want to admit that or not. I find it strange.

People seem to have held on to a few bad performances of his while forgetting all the good ones.

Fekitoa actually has another dimension to his game the others don't have. He has a kicking game. Which will be very handy vs the Lions rush defense. It's possible Hansen will go with Fekitoa now.

In many cases stats are not indicative of performance. I'd certainly have ALB well ahead of Fekitoa. Form is probably even but ALB has produced more for the All Blacks in one season than Fekitoa has in three or four.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

9) TJ Perenara
10) Beuden Barret
11) James Lowe
12) Ngani Laumape
13) ALB
14: Waisake Naholo
15) Ben Smith

Right at this moment, I completely agree with this side. As you mentioned, the toughest choice is the right wing, and in any normal circumstance I'd prefer NMS, but he has just come back from injury and Naholo has been impressive. Dagg has looked a bit off the pace, so he doesn't warrant selection atm. If NMS puts in another good performance vs the Chiefs on Friday then I'd have him as my starting 14 against Samoa, and if he plays well again I'd give him the 14 jersey for the series.

Up until the weekend I'd had Smith as my starting halfback, but the gulf in form between him and TJ rn can't be ignored.

James Lowe definitely deserves a chance on the left wing imo. I won't go on about why, I've done that plenty of times before lol.

I think that with Crotty out now Laumape is the clear choice at 12. Like TJ, his form just can't be ignored and he deserves his place there. I just hope that Shag and co. have the balls to pick him.

ALB and Bender are pretty straight forward selections for me.

On the bench: Nuggy, Cruden, SBW.

Also in the squad: TKB, DMac, Fekitoa, Naholo, Savea

 

[Ground We Won]

In many cases stats are not indicative of performance. I'd certainly have ALB well ahead of Fekitoa. Form is probably even but ALB has produced more for the All Blacks in one season than Fekitoa has in three or four.

I wouldn't say 'many' cases. You're basically just dismissing stats as useless, which is not accurate.
Do people here even watch the Highlanders? I think his performances have been better than ALBs this season as well.
It's like people just ignore things.

Agreed about the All Blacks part. Which makes it a hard decision.

Laumape ALB does look like the best pairing for the All Blacks and I'd like to see that. But I just wouldn't be surprised if Hansen picks Fekitoa over him, because of form and experiences, also his kicking game.

 

[Ground We Won]

Is Hansen going to start the Lions test with a debutant too? I suppose if Laumape plays vs Samoa we might get our answer.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

I wouldn't say 'many' cases. You basically just dismissing stats as useless, which is not accurate.
Do people here even watch the Highlanders? I think his performances have been better than ALBs this season as well.
It's like people just ignore things.

I've watched virtually every game from every NZ team this year lol. I think that both players had a somewhat slow start to the season, but ALB was particularly quiet. Fekitoa noticeably picked it up about midway through and has put in a succession of solid performances to date.

But ALB's form hasn't been as bad as you may think. You're using stats to showcase their respective forms and, while stats are useful to an extent, they don't tell the whole story. This is especially true I feel in the case of 2 players like ALB and Fekitoa. With the way they play and their style of game, it's inevitable that Fekitoa would make more meters, beat more defenders and score more tries. He's used as a battering ram and runs himself A LOT more than ALB does. The stats you produced clearly show this... but look at the number of passes/offloads... ALB clearly plays the role of a creator, whereas Fekitoa is a meter-maker.

What the stats never show is the decision making and rugby smarts of the players, which is where I believe ALB is clearly superior to Fekitoa. He makes the right decisions almost all the time. Fekitoa often makes the wrong decision when it comes to option-taking, and his 1st thought when he gets the ball always seems to be to run it or try to beat a man, when this clearly isn't always the best option. I do believe Fekitoa has improved this area of his game this year and isn't as bad as he used to be, but it's still there. And when it comes to which player is better suited to the ABs backline, especially given that Crotty is out now, I think that ALB is comfortably the better option.

On the form thing, Fekitoa has been better, but not exponentially better. ALB was undoubtedly quiet for the 1st half of the season but he has lifted his game and he has been very good the last few rounds. He hasn't been as much of a standout as Fekitoa, but he has been doing his job very well and has produced a few of those touches that just make him a class above Fekitoa as a rugby player IMO.

 

[Ground We Won]

Richard Buckman deserves a mention, very consistent, lacks pace though, so I don't think he will ever be selected which is sad for him, very versatile and intelligent consistent player.

What combination will we run with Crotty's injury?

SBW's fitness is a question mark. I think SBW has become a real obvious first choice now if he's fit. 12.SBW 13.ALB is a big possibility, my only concern would be starting this pairing in the first test when they haven't played together before.

With Crottys injury what do we realistically have to choose from at 12?

There's really only 3 players who will realistically be considered for 12 at the moment and it's;

Laumape, SBW, ALB

Realistically to choose from at 13;

ALB, Fekitoa, Moala, Tamanivalu, Goodhue, Aso

First test up, Hansen very likely to go experience over Super Rugby form. I think that narrows it down to SBW, ALB and Fekitoa with Moala as an outside possibility and rules out the others, including Laumape.

If I had to bet my house on the combination now. I would choose;

12.SBW
13.ALB

Likely alternative;

12.ALB
13.Fekitoa

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

Richard Buckman deserves a mention, very consistent, lacks pace though, so I don't think he will ever be selected which is sad for him, very versatile and intelligent consistent player.

What combination will we run with Crotty's injury?

SBW's fitness is a question mark. I think SBW has become a real obvious first choice now if he's fit. 12.SBW 13.ALB is a big possibility, my only concern would be starting this pairing in the first test when they haven't played together before.

With Crottys injury what do we realistically have to choose from at 12?

There's really only 3 players who will realistically be considered for 12 at the moment and it's;

Laumape, SBW, ALB

Realistically to choose from at 13;

ALB, Fekitoa, Moala, Tamanivalu, Goodhue, Aso

First test up, Hansen very likely to go experience over Super Rugby form. I think that narrows it down to SBW, ALB and Fekitoa with Moala as an outside possibility and rules out the others, including Laumape.

If I had to bet my house on the combination now. I would choose;

12.SBW
13.ALB

Likely alternative;

12.ALB
13.Fekitoa

I think the realistic options are:
12. SBW, 13. ALB (Most likely)

12. ALB, 13. Fekitoa

12. Laumape, 13. ALB

12. SBW, 13. Fekitoa (Least likely)

I wouldn't rule out Laumape purely on the basis that he is uncapped. At th end of the day it will come down to who is the best man for the job. Sure Laumape's experience will count against him, but selectors have shown in the past that they are willing to pick unproven guys if they feel they are up to it. This may well be the case with Laumape, as he definitely seems to be the premier 12 in the country atm. On the last Lions tour Sivivatu was picked on form despite having not been tested at test level before and that turned out to be a great move.
I'd still bet on SBW though, given his experience and the fact that he's a proven big match performer.