All Blacks squad for the Lions named on the 8th... predictions?

[Ground We Won]

Sivivatu was a winger. They don't mind playing uncapped players on the wing. But when it comes to centre I really doubt it. They will go for experience, I'm sure.

For this reason I think Laumape is the most unlikely inclusion.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

It will be interesting to see who is selected for the Maori All Blacks squad, given the All Blacks will be playing against Samoa that same weekend. I'm expecting any non-starters for the All Blacks will play the Maori game if possible. I'm also expecting that the team fielded against Samoa will basically be the top team. With that in mind, expected MAB team to play the Lions would be:

1 Kane Hames
2 Ash Dixon
3 Jeff Toomaga-Allen
4 Tom Franklin
5 Jacob Skeen
6 Liam Messam
7 Elliot Dixon
8 Akira Ioane
9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow
10 Damien Mckenzie
11 James Lowe
12 Charlie Ngatai
13 Rieko Ioane
14 Cory Jane
15 Nehe Milner-Skudder

16 Hika Elliot
17 Chris Eves
18 Ben May
19 Leighton Price
20 Kara Pryor
21 Bryn Hall
22 Otere Black
23 Matt Proctor

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

It will be interesting to see who is selected for the Maori All Blacks squad, given the All Blacks will be playing against Samoa that same weekend. I'm expecting any non-starters for the All Blacks will play the Maori game if possible. I'm also expecting that the team fielded against Samoa will basically be the top team. With that in mind, expected MAB team to play the Lions would be:

1 Kane Hames
2 Ash Dixon
3 Jeff Toomaga-Allen
4 Tom Franklin
5 Jacob Skeen
6 Liam Messam
7 Elliot Dixon
8 Akira Ioane
9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow
10 Damien Mckenzie
11 James Lowe
12 Charlie Ngatai
13 Rieko Ioane
14 Cory Jane
15 Nehe Milner-Skudder

16 Hika Elliot
17 Chris Eves
18 Ben May
19 Leighton Price
20 Kara Pryor
21 Bryn Hall
22 Otere Black
23 Matt Proctor

And that is a bloody strong team. I just hope that all the Chiefs boys will be able to play the Chiefs game too, otherwise they're gonna be significantly weakened.

 

[Larksea]

This squad is almost impossible to pick given we are in the business end of super rugby and already have a substantial injury list.

the depth in NZ rugby makes it even harder to pick with 5 genuinely competitive super rugby sides

Most interesting areas are the loosies and midfield. We dont have an established midfield combo and we have a big injury problem with the lossies.

But even with Kaino, Read and Squire injured we have great depth. its a case of getting the balance and combinations right. Whatever combination is selected will be kinda new territory and untested at test level.

7: Cane, Todd
8: Read, Whitelock
6: Shields, Messam

I dont know how far away Kaino or Squire are. We will miss Kaino but he isn't even named for the blues this week.

Squire was in amazing form but seemed to throw himself around so hard he was risking injury and it caught him out more than once. I hope he can find some balance between effectiveness and looking after himself.

I think we will see Read back but he may not play the first test. Whitelock has been NZ's best #8 in his absence and has a very similar play style.

I think you can generally toss a coin to pick our #7's but Cane is the established guy, and IMO Todd is absolutely invaluable and a proven test player and reliable performer in tough situations. Ardie is good off the bench and a player for the future but if Cane is injured we really want Todd there to start. What seems to happen is two will be named and eventually all three will be around the squad and get gametime.

With Kaino and Squire out injured Shields is the dead set form guy who deserves selection and Messam is an experienced All Black in good form who can genuinely cover 6 or 8, can take lineout ball without any fuss and has a excellent combination going with Cane.

Unlucky
Luatua - playing well but going overseas and not playing so well he absolutely demands selection over guys that are staying.
Akira Ioane - maybe just lacks a bit of consistency and needs to link and pass a bit more. it does seem like is time is coming and if there is an injury or opportunity he could very well get on the field against the lions.
Ardie Savea - a victim of depth, his time will come. I also dont see him as an option at 6 or 8 at all. We can't afford to give away size at 6 & 8 to the lions. While he functions at 8 for the canes its not really good enough at the core stuff. But as I said either way I still expect Ardie to be involved in this lions series at some stage as cover.
Taufua - always there abouts, he is good enough to play for the AB's but he is just a victim of depth like Shields has been. Good form and playing well but just not as well as Shields or Messam.
Dixon - has been a part of the squad the last couple of years but is a long way off the 2015 form that earned him selection.

honestly I dont think any of these guys are completely ruled out, on their own all are playing well and could sneak in.

Midfield

12: SBW, Crotty
13: ALB, Fekitoa

Crotty is injured and that could see Moala called in.

laumape is playing the house down but to call a young guy into a tough series like this in the middle of a super rugby campaign is a big ask and not really the style of the All Black selectors. On the other hand how can you not select him? Also a bit wary of the workload he has had for the canes, clocking up over 1000 minutes of super rugby.

unlucky
Buckman - every good backline needs someone like this. Tackles everything, has a complete skillset and almost always makes the right decision. The kind of guy that makes a positive contribution every single game.
Ngatai - form midfielder in NZ last year hasn't completely cleared himself of an injury cloud in time.
Goodhue - at this stage it seems his time will eventually come. Very good prospect.
Aso - another big prospect, still just a bit early and laumape prob just ahead in the pecking order.

enough for now this is getting long

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

The squad is gonna be 33 strong (presumably an 18/15 split) and will include injury cover. Here's my take:

Props: Moody, Franks, Crockett, Faumuiina, Laulala. - the first 4 are lock-ins. IMO Laulala is the obvious choice for the 5th spot and will likely be picked.

Hookers: Coles, Taylor, Harris, Coltman (injury cover). - I think this is probably the easiest position to predict in terms of who'll be in the actual squad (along with halfback actually). The point of interest is around who'll be injury cover for Coles - I believe Coltman should and will be picked, but Parsons is a good shout too. Riccitelli and Funnel outside chances.

Locks: Retallick, Whitelock, Barrett, Romano. - The top 2 are waaay ahead of the rest, which is a bit concerning, especially given Retallick's head knock. I think Barrett is a pretty safe bet to be the 3rd lock, but it's a bit of a 50/50 between Tuipolotu and Romano for the fourth spot. I think Romano has probably just played himself ahead of Tuipolotu. Whoever misses out may well get called in as injury cover anyway, depending on how serious Retallick's head issues are.

Loosies: Kaino, Cane, Read, Squire, Savea, Luatua, Shields (injury cover), Whitelock (injury cover), Todd (injury cover). - Very interesting! Kaino and Read are probably the only absolute guaranteed selections, and they're both injured! You could probs put your house on Cane too, but tbh I don't think he deserves to be an absolute shoe-in.
Squire is expected back a week or 2 before the first test so, given how well he did in the ABs last year and how good he was this year, I reckon he'll be picked.
IMO Savea is a must have... he is the clear bench option and his impact from there is a massive asset. Not picking him would be a big mistake IMO, and I'm sure he will be there.
As for the last squad spot, it's basically a 50/50 between Luatua and Shields... they both cover 6/8 and they've both been very good this year. Luatua's experience in the squad may put him in favour, but then again the fact that he's leaving may count against him... personally I'd go with Luatua, but who knows? It could go either way, and I'm more than happy either way. I don't think Todd will get that spot, as 2 specialist 7s is all that's required, which is really unfortunate for him because he's the best 7 in NZ right now... but the selectors prefer Cane, and Savea offers more off the bench.
With Kaino, Read and Squire all under injury clouds I've gone with 3 injury covers... they probably won't actually go with 3, but I will just to be safe. Shields is obvious, whoever isn't in the actual squad out of him and Luatua is very likely to be there as injury cover for either Read or Kaino. I have him down as cover for Kaino.
Whitelock deserves to be the cover for Read... he has been the best 8 in NZ this year and is the type of player that will get the job done at test level... Ioane is also a possibility though, as is Taufua or Dixon potentially.
As for injury cover for Squire, I've gone with Todd. It doesn't really make sense in tems of balance, but Todd is just too good to ignore and I reckon they'll be keen to get him in the group at any opportunity, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him there as injury cover, event if he doesn't cover 6 or 8.

Halfbacks: Perenara, Smith, TKB. - I don't think there's much doubt over this at all. Maybe an outside possibility of Pulu over TKB, but I really doubt it. TKB has been very good this year, has been an ABs regular for years and has a better all round game than Pulu.

First Fives: Barrett, Cruden. - This is a bit of a bold call, and if I'm being honest I doubt it'll happen, but I like it. I think these 2 are lock-ins, but you'd usually expect there to be a third. IMO though they should just go with these 2 and have DMac in the back 3 to provide cover. This provides an extra squad spot elsewhere in the backline for someone who'd be of more use... there's no need for more than 2 specialist 10s in a 3 match series, especially when these 2 are clearly the preferred options.
As I said though, I don't realistically think this will happen. I think Shag and co. will go with a 3rd 10... and that in itself is a very contentious decision... Mounga deserves it but Sopoaga is established. It's a real 50/50, but I'll go Mounga.

Centers: Crotty, ALB, SBW, Fekitoa, Laumape (injury cover). - Crotty, ALB and SBW are pretty safe bets. The 4th spot is a shootout between Feks, Moala and possibly Ioane and Tamanivalu. Feks deserves it... his form has been better than Moala's and Reiko is not as good in the midfield as he is on the wing, and he hasn't been playing in the midfield anyway. Same with Tamanivalu..... good player, but has been on the wing all year, so not a realistic option IMO.
With Crotty injured, there'll definitely be some injury cover for him. Moala may or may not be the likely choice, but in my mind Laumape absolutely should be there... for starters he is a 12 and Moala is a 13 who can cover 12 but doesn't suit it as well. Whoever comes in will be there to cover 12, not 13. Laumape is far and away the form midfielder in NZ right now, and deserves to be the next in line at 12. He may be uncapped, but he looks up to test rugby and is clearly the best performing 12 in NZ atm, so why not get him in there?
Just a note on Ngatai too... he's incredibly unlucky and would probs be the obvious choice if he didn't have so many issues... feel for the guy.

Outside Backs: Savea, Naholo, Smith, Dagg, NMS, Mckenzie. - And this is why I saw it necessary to have 2 firts fives... because otherwise you'd have to leave one of these guys out, which would be extremely difficult. If they do go with the three 10s then I'm really not sure who'll miss out... my guess would be NMS since he's just come back, but I really hope that isn't the case as he has the potential to be our starting 14 and a key player in the series.
IMO the outside backs is the most interesting area in the squad.
For me, the only lock-in is Bender. Savea you'd obviously expect to be there, but his form continues to be underwhelming and the selectors may well be running out of patience... I still strongly expect him to be there though.
Naholo deserves to be there on form and will be neck in neck with Savea for the 11 jersey IMO.
Mckenzie has absolutely killed it this year in super rugby... probably the player of the tournament so far. He's an excellent player and more than makes up for his lack in size with his extraordinary skill-set. He also covers 10 which is important for the make-up of my squad. Either way, he's in.
Dagg and NMS are in the same boat really... just back from injury, limited game time, but guys who are proven quality at test level and who we know are great players. So, on that basis, they get picked. IMO NMS should be ahead of Dagg in the pecking order... when fully fit, he's the better winger and in his recent return already looked in better touch than Dagg. I reckon one of these 2 will end up being the staring 14 for the tests, so that'll be an interesting battle.
Also worth mentioning that Bender has a head issue... if it is serious enough to warrant injury cover, then I think Jordie Barrett is the man. I definitely wouldn't have Jordie in the initial squad though.
A final comment on this..... James Lowe. If I was picking the squad he'd be the first winger I'd pick. He has been the best winger in NZ for 3 years straight yet has somehow been shown no love by the selectors. He's such a great player and is a huge loss to NZ rugby. It's such a shame that we'll probably never see him in a black jersey.

So... there's my predictions / thoughts. Didn't expect to write such a bloody essay lol, but there is so much to talk about with this squad! It's definitely the most anticipated and unpredictable ABs squad for years... actually that I can remember. Can't wait for the naming, can't wait to see how the team takes shape, can't wait for the series!

 

[Larksea]

good squad

word is getting around that Coles is basically ruled out of the lions series.

yeah the loosie situation is different if Read, Shields and Kaino are all back in time I guess we will see.
If anything the guy who deserves the 6th spot that was Dixons it's Brad Shields. Luatua has had a good season but not better than the likes of Shields, Whitelock or Messam. I dont see any reason to pick him ahead of those guys. On recent form even Ioane has been better.

I think Perenara deserves the #1 halfback spot, hes playing some amazing footy and almost plays the role of a flanker without letting his core duties as a halfback suffer.

NMS looked good running for the short time last weekend I really hope he can stay together for a while, had a bad run of injuries. I do have concerns over his defense and funny I just checked his stats and he only been credited with 1 tackle and 2 misses in 160 minutes of rugby this season. Not much to go on but I do see an issue there.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

What's the story with A. Ioane? I haven't been paying much attention to him but the hype seems to have died down massively. Is he heading downhill or is it just more to do with that he's not getting the attention he did when playing 7s?

 

[Ground We Won]

What's the story with A. Ioane? I haven't been paying much attention to him but the hype seems to have died down massively. Is he heading downhill or is it just more to do with that he's not getting the attention he did when playing 7s?

Nah, he's been terrific this season. If he wasn't as green as he was he'd be in the squad.. He will definitely make some appearances this season.

I'll have a crack, but Caitlyn pretty much nailed it, few tweaks here or there are possible;

Injury cover '*'


Props

-Moody
-Faumuiina
-Franks
-Crockett
-Laulala
-Tu'Ungafasi*
-Hames*

Hookers

-Coles
-Taylor
-Harris
-Coltman*

Coles might not make the first test, but he will get named I think. Can't help but feel there's some protection and gamesmanship going on too.

Locks

-Rettalick
-Whitelock
-S.Barrett
-Romano
-Tuipolotu*

Patricks the future, but hard to pick him over Romano at the moment. Romano has definitely had the better season and has the experience.

Loose forwards

-Read
-Kaino
-Cane
-Savea
-Squire
-Todd
-Whitelock*

I'd have L.Whitelock and Todd ahead of Luatua, they've been better and both are staying in the country and L.Whitelock is one of the best replacements for Read if he goes down or has injury concerns, along with Squire.

Halfbacks

-A.Smith
-Perenara
-TKB
-Pulu*

Earlier in the season Pulu was on fire. Definitely had a good season, lacks the caps though. He must be eyeing up 3rd spot after TKB leaves.
Not sure about starting TJ ahead of Aaron. Simply because of tactical reasons. I think our bench is one of the most important parts of our game. TJ offers far more off the bench than what Aaron does in my opinion. Also Aaron is unlikely to be as irrational and inconsistent with the All Blacks as he has been with the Landers, I hope. So tactically I would keep it how it is.

First V's

-B.Barrett
-A.Cruden
-Sopoaga/Mo'Unga*

I like the idea of only two specialists too. Sopoaga just had to do the basics this season, but he couldn't even manage that and has played himself out of an All Black shirt in my honest opinion. Hansen might take pity on his injury woes as he's done in the past with players, but it's hard to justify selecting him on his current form. Particularly when Mo'Unga has been on fire, but he's uncapped. Likely scenario is 2 specialists (Barrett, Cruden) with the 3rd being dropped for D.McKenzie.

Centres

-Crotty
-SBW
-ALB
-Fekitoa
-Moala*

I think we've covered this on the odd occasion? Lol. I'd like to see Goodhue as injury cover over Moala, unlikely since he's uncapped, but I do think the kid is the future. We will see him later in the year, no doubts about it.

Outside backs

Most deserving; James Lowe - His lack of versatility works against him and he's leaving. Great form though.
Most likely; R.Ioane - Can cover centre/wing, is also in great form, is capped and is the future.
Most versatile; J.Barrett - Again versatile
Unluckiest; R.Buckman

Hansen likes versatility in the backs. This is why I think James Lowe will not be selected. 3 specialists wingers is too much. Sorry James, I know you deserve it, maybe we cap you before you jump on the plane to Ireland so they can't select you which isn't fair on James, if he wants to go to a RWC or play in the 6 nations - I know that idea works nicely for us, but I don't really think that's fair on James Lowe's career. I don't think Hansen works like that either.

This is why I think it will be either R.Ioane or J.Barrett. Both covering multiple positions. Personally I think it will be R.Ioane, he's in great form and he's capped. We're really well covered at fullback, so I think Hansen could want more centre cover, which Ioane can.

Sad for Buckman because he can cover all these positions extremely well. You lose no quality wherever you put him, he's not your big fancy line breaker, he's more in the mold of Conrad Smith, an intelligent player who makes the right decisions and does the basics perfectly which is the most important aspect of a game.

-J.Savea
-W.Naholo
-B.Smith
-D.McKenzie
-NMS
-Israel Dagg
-R.Ioane*

Israel Daggs position is under real threat because of his injury concerns. I see parallels with the 2015 season.

 

[Larksea]

Akira had a quiet start to the season and had a bit of a slump but has been excellent recently to the point now where his season stats are looking very good, as far as ball carrying lose forwards go Akira and Ardie Savea stand out from all the other options for meters/breaks/defenders beaten etc. and hes tackling over 90% and he has come up with some big plays.

kinda got to the point where he is completely shading Luatua. I dont understand people pushing Luatua for selection he had a couple of good games early in the season but overall and recently he hasn't been playing well enough to demand selection considering he is going overseas.

 

[Ground We Won]

Akira had a quiet start to the season and had a bit of a slump but has been excellent recently to the point now where his season stats are looking very good, as far as ball carrying lose forwards go Akira and Ardie Savea stand out from all the other options for meters/breaks/defenders beaten etc. and hes tackling over 90% and he has come up with some big plays.

kinda got to the point where he is completely shading Luatua. I dont understand people pushing Luatua for selection he had a couple of good games early in the season but overall and recently he hasn't been playing well enough to demand selection considering he is going overseas.

I think sentimentality is creeping in since he's leaving. But there's so many other better options than him currently.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

Centres

-Crotty
-SBW
-ALB
-Fekitoa
-Moala*

I think we've covered this on the odd occasion? Lol.

Haha, maybe once or twice... at least we can agree on the main 4. Laumape vs Moala for the injury cover is the selection that I'm anticipating the most. Will be good to finally settle the debate lol.

 

[Ground We Won]

Haha, maybe once or twice... at least we can agree on the main 4. Laumape vs Moala for the injury cover is the selection that I'm anticipating the most. Will be good to finally settle the debate lol.

Yes, I'd like Laumape ahead of Moala also, but different positions and I think Hansen will want to have Moala as an alternative at 13.

It will be tough for Laumape to break into the team. He will need a Crotty AND a SBW injury to become cover for ALB at 12.

The kids bound to get some caps later down the track though.

 

[The Jones Boy]

I'm not conviced about Laumape
He's been given an armchair ride all season.
He hasn't been fighting for scraps.
He's a debutante as well and thats a big ask in a Lions test match. You don't mess about with greenhorns on historical days of rugby.
I like Buckman but I can't see him getting a look in until after the Lions tour.
Call me an old codger but I can't see Hansen and co. giving much if any opportuities to untried players, they will be looking for tried and true.

Luatua is a monster and he is hard to go passed as back up for the Colossus at blindside but... that brain explosion that saw him sent off earlier in the season may come back to haunt him...

Whats happened to Victor Vito?

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

Whats happened to Victor Vito?

He went to France at the end of last season...

On Laumape, why do you say he's had an 'armchair ride'?
Other than the Blues, every NZ side has a quality forward pack and quality halves, so I don't see how he's had more of a free ride than any of the midfielders in NZ (other than the Blues boys). He's performed out of his skin... it's not like all his tries and running meters have been handed to him on a platter... he has consistently broken tackles and made breaks with his power and pace, and has created a lot for those around him... especially Aso lol.

 

[Ground We Won]

Laumape is the real deal Jones. The kid is build like a rhino and has the technical ability and intelligence, a very unselfish player too. He's got a big future ahead of himself.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Potentially leaked All Blacks squad:



Leak discussed here: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/ru...ealand-omit-Dane-Coles-Lions-Test-series.html

 

[Larksea]

I would say that is probably a dead set genuine squad. the biggest suprise would be Eliot Dixon being retained but it kinda shows the loyalty the selectors have in players and the selection of Luatua also hints that they want experienced guys over form new comers.

the non selection of Coles confirms reports that he will miss the series because of his concussion issues.

selection of only 2 hookers allows for 3 first fives sounds about right. I expect Liam Coltman and Parsons will both have the playbook and be on call to be ready at the drop of a hat if needed.

And sanity prevailing with the selection of McKenzie. A lot of armchair selectors leaving him out, his form is far too good to ignore.

 

[Reiser99]

Wonder if Ioane was always destined for the squad or the was on the border and today tipped him in. Guess Dane Coles won't recover. If this is accurate.

 

[Ground We Won]

No Squire or Coles, I'm presuming because of their injuries. I'm surprised Sopoaga and Dixon made it as a Highlanders fan. On this seasons form they have both been our worst performers.

 

[Larksea]

ok this isn't a "leaked" squad

its just something a write for allblacks.com official site has put up, but its still basically just media speculation and nothing official even though it is on the official site.

https://www.allblacks.com/News/30919/opinion-all-blacks-selection-set-to-be-full-of-surprises

this is a conservative selection. wouldn't read too much into it.