Interesting thread. Now how about picking the 1st 8?
The first 8 is a faaaaar cry from the backline in terms of who may / may not be picked. It's virtually settled...
1. Moody
2. Coles
3. Franks
4. Retallick
5. Whitelock
6. Kaino
7. Cane
8. Read
The only position where there may be some genuine debate is at 7, but this will mainly just come from fans, I think we all know what the coaches will do. Savea is a great player, very dynamic, and is in great form. Cane is a quiet achiever but is more of an asset when it comes to doing the hard yards (Breakdown work, Defensive impact etc.). It's a fair debate and both are worthy of the position (I don't mind either way really, would actually kinda like to see Ardie get a go at it), but it will be Cane who gets the nod, with Ardie coming off the bench and providing impact in the last 30.
Aside from the top 8 though, the make up of the pack in the rest of the squad is very interesting..... We know the squad will be 33 players... meaning that outside the 23 there will be 10 extras... presumably 5 forwards and 5 backs. So Starting 8 + 5 subs + 5 extras means there will be 18 forwards. Again, presumably, this will mean 5 props, 3 hookers, 4 locks and 6 loosies. Here's my take on the make up...
Props: Moody, Franks, Faumuiina, Crocket, Laulala
- Moody and franks are lock-ins, Faumuiina and Crocket are safe bets, the 5th position is up for grabs. IMO Laulala deserves it and will get it, but Manu, Hames and Tu'ungafasi will also be in contention.
Hookers: Coles, Taylor, Harris
- Again, Coles is a lock in and Taylor is a safe bet. The 3rd position is very interesting. Harris is the incumbent and he's meant to return from injury soon (and he was in good form prior to injury), so we can assume that he will get it. However if he comes back and doesn't have time to get up to speed (or isn't playing well or gets injured again) then it's a 3 horse race with no clear winner: Riccitelli vs Coltman vs Parsons. Coltman would probs be the most likely option given he's been there before and is a solid, consistent performer, but the same can be said for Parsons, and Riccitelli is a great young player who's playing as well as any of them. tbh I would probs go with Coltman. It will be interesting though. Hopefully Harris will come back and claim his spot anyway.
Locks: Whitelock, Retallick, Tuipolotu, Barrett.
- Whitelock and Retallick obviously. Tuipolotu probably to be used as an impact player, though this definitely isn't a lock in. Still likely though, and I think Barrett has over taken Romano in the pecking order (as the Crusaders selections have shown), so I think he'll round out the 4 locks. It's tough on Romano who has done nothing wrong and is a good player who has done a good job for us over the years, and it's also tough on Bird who has come back very strong this year and is making himself very hard to overlook. Fifita also deserves mentioning and is an exiting prospect, but I don't think he's in genuine contention.
Loosies: Kaino, Cane, Read, Savea, Squire, Luatua
- This is where it gets interesting
... Off the bat, let's get the lock ins out of the way: Kaino, Cane, Read and Savea. Now there are 2 spots to fill from riches of talent from all 5 super sides. Here are the contenders, imo: Luatua, Messam, Sheilds, Todd, Squire, Dixon and Whitelock. At the start of the season it would've been Ioane instead of Whitelock, but Super Rugby form has clearly changed that.
I think last year showed that the coaches are quite fond of Squire, and he has looked good since coming back from injury, so I think he is the safest bet of these guys.
The last spot though is really up for grabs. Whitelock has been great, very solid, and looks a great long term prospect and, tbf, is probs our no.2 out and out no.8. However, I think it's still too early to pick him and he hasn't quite done enough to justify selection for the Lions tour. He just doesn't offer enough at this point.
Messam, for me, is a really interesting one; I'm not sure where he stands in the coaches' pecking order. Obviously he was in the 2015 WC squad and then didn't play 15s during 2016. The coaches are big on loyalty and guys not losing their spot through not playing, so it wouldn't surprise me if he's in line to be picked. I don't think he should be though. I think he doesn't have the impact that he used to and wouldn't really add anything to the playing depth of our squad or our on-field performance.
Luatua, on the other hand, is entering the prime years of his career and is in the form of his life right now. Ik he's going overseas, but I doubt this will count against him given the importance of this series. It would be disappointing if it did. He offers a dynamic game and can even cover lock if need be. I think he's worth picking and think/hope he will be.
Dixon I think has dropped down the pecking order. His form has been on a steady decline since 2015 and that has only increased this year. Despite his presence in the squad last year, I doubt he'll be picked.
As for Todd, he's just surplus to requirements, which is unfortunate given his quality. With 6 loosies there's only room for 2 specialist 7s, unless the coaches are really desperate to get him in, but I don't think they are. So he misses out. If there was one more spot in the squad, he'd get it, but he'll be on call anyway, and will probs become our starter if Cane goes down.
Lastly, Shields. He's a guy I feel for. Such a good, consistent performer who you know would do the exact same job at test level. He's just unlucky to be stuck behind Kaino and not be the type of player to be useful at test level as an impact player, so he's not needed in the squad.
