A Political Thread pt. 2

[Welsh Exile]

She's caught between a rock and a hard place. Call a GE and she risks suffering a humiliating defeat after an extremely short time in office. If she doesn't call a snap GE then it'll be a matter of time before she's removed by a confidence vote or leadership challenge. I'm not convinced her MPs would accept her leading the party into a GE and they will probably want to remove her before she gets a chance to call a snap election. It's going to get very messy next week and I still think she's toast.

Her hope will be that Hunt and walking back some of the mini budget will stabilise the markets. Get the economy back or track, or less than that, make the perception that it's back on track and all will be dandy. You'll start seeing that reflected in the polls and 2 years from now this will all be old news. Whether it pans out like that is another thing but I guess that's the play. Sacking Kwasi has brought her a bit of time but not much.

Having said all that it's kind of hard to put yourself into the mind of this government as it's got to be the most incompetent in history.

 

[General Melchett]

Her hope will be that Hunt and walking back some of the mini budget will stabilise the markets. Get the economy back or track, or less than that, make the perception that it's back on track and all will be dandy. You'll start seeing that reflected in the polls and 2 years from now this will all be old news. Whether it pans out like that is another thing but I guess that's the play. Sacking Kwasi has brought her a bit of time but not much.

Having said all that it's kind of hard to put yourself into the mind of this government as it's got to be the most incompetent in history.

Yeah she's probably hoping that's how it will pan out but Hunt has zero experience in the Treasury and it's hard to imagine there not being more mini-budget U-turns. Pressure will grow on bankers' bonuses, benefit increases in line with inflation etc. She should have done more U-turns today and tried to pin it all on Kwarteng while she had the chance. I think she's blown it and both her and her flawed policies are being found out.

 

[General Melchett]

rishi is a better man than me. If I were him I'd be publicly **** talking Truss nonstop.

He's purposefully staying quiet as he knows it will come across as sour grapes for losing the leadership contest to Truss and that she will eventually hang herself. He is likely getting other senior Tories to do the mud slinging for him and he will be the knight in shining armour when Truss is on the brink.

 

[Which Tyler]

Poll commissioned by GBNews

 

[ncurd]

rishi is a better man than me. If I were him I'd be publicly **** talking Truss nonstop.

Talking about holding off **** talking.

 

[Which Tyler]

 

[McTallshort]

You are Liz Truss, and I claim my £5

Plus, Elon has been talking to Vladimir - and, like Donald, whoever spoke to him last seems to hold the key to the next thing out of his mouth

Elon Musk’s SpaceX says it can no longer fund Starlink internet in Ukraine

Firm reportedly asks US government to pick up bill as relationship between Musk and Kyiv breaks down

www.theguardian.com

The US government was already paying the majority of it.

 

[Which Tyler]

The US government was already paying the majority of it.

I was under the impression they were paying all of it.
Musk has been a twunt about pretty much the whole thing though - after the positive press from moving his satellites in the first place.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

---

Though Musk has received widespread acclaim and thanks for responding to requests for Starlink service to Ukraine right as the war was starting, in reality, the vast majority of the 20,000 terminals have received full or partial funding from outside sources, including the US government, the UK and Poland, according to the SpaceX letter to the Pentagon.

SpaceX's request that the US military foot the bill has rankled top brass at the Pentagon, with one senior defense official telling CNN that SpaceX has "the gall to look like heroes" while having others pay so much and now presenting them with a bill for tens of millions per month.

According to the SpaceX figures shared with the Pentagon, about 85% of the 20,000 terminals in Ukraine were paid – or partially paid – for by countries like the US and Poland or other entities. Those entities also paid for about 30% of the internet connectivity, which SpaceX says costs $4,500 each month per unit for the most advanced service. (Over the weekend, Musk tweeted there are around 25,000 terminals in Ukraine.)

---

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index.html

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

From NI to stamp duty: what is left of Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget?

After series of U-turns and Kwarteng’s sacking as chancellor, here’s where things stand

www.theguardian.com

batting .500 is actually pretty good

 

[TRF_Olyy]

 

[Which Tyler]

If you thought my post on reorganising the Prem / Champ was too long...

 

[Reiser99]

There's about as much chance of a general election as there is Wales beating New Zealand next month.

See I disagree. I think it's the only way Truss can avoid being ousted by her own MPs. However, in the event they do oust and choose a new leader they would surely have to call an election as they would have literally 0 mandate to run the country and would be a laughing stock. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm underestimating their complete disregard for democracy though.

 

[Welsh Exile]

See I disagree. I think it's the only way Truss can avoid being ousted by her own MPs. However, in the event they do oust and choose a new leader they would surely have to call an election as they would have literally 0 mandate to run the country and would be a laughing stock. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm underestimating their complete disregard for democracy though.

I just don't think it's in the Tories interest to call an election but we live in strange, unpredictable times so who knows.

To be fair, I actually think we have a 15%-20% chance of beating NZ which is about 10%-15% more than I usually give Wales so I'm not ruling out an election just think the party survival instinct will kick in when push comes to shove.

 

[Which Tyler]

See I disagree. I think it's the only way Truss can avoid being ousted by her own MPs. However, in the event they do oust and choose a new leader they would surely have to call an election as they would have literally 0 mandate to run the country and would be a laughing stock. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm underestimating their complete disregard for democracy though.

But they already have literally 0 mandate to run the country.
Truss ran on a campaign to ditch Johnson's mandate, and wasnt votes in by the country.

A change in leadership of the ruling party should automatically trigger a GE during peacetime.

 

[ncurd]

I don't see how this doesn't end in a general election I can't see how another PM sures anything up for them.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

 

[General Melchett]

Sunak is probably the Tories' best hope in a snap GE but he's young and may not want to waste his one likely shot at an election as Tory leader based on the current polls. He may decide to have another crack in a few years time. Truss and her ERG cronies may also bizarrely rather hand power over to Starmer via a snap GE than be ousted by Sunak.

If Truss calls an election could she still be ousted by her own MPs before the election via a party leadership rule change if they thought they would lose their seats with her at the helm? Currently she's safe for another 11 months but we saw with Johnson that party rules didn't keep him safe.

 

[Which Tyler]

How safe is Sunak's seat?
If Truss / Mordaunt / ANOtherDisaster leads them into a GE and they're down to 50-odd seats, would he even be in parliament still?

 

[Gavin]

Miriam on seeing Hunt in the studio