[2015 RWC] Semi Final 1: South Africa vs. New Zealand (24/10/2015)

[BakkiesBokke]

Unless it absolute pours down with rain making attacking rugby impossible, I can't see anything other than a comfortable New Zealand win. If Wales had their first choice backs like Davies, Liam and Scott Williams, they would have won, all we needed as a little creativity out wide and a little common sense not to kick the ball and just throw caution to the wind. South Africa never once looked like scoring until Cuthbert's (which wouldn't have happened if Liam Williams was fit) defensive blunder, even though they were in our half with the ball for long sustained periods. They are unbelievably predictable and Wales showed with the likes of Lydiate and Warburton is all you have to do is chop them low and jackal. There was no foot work at all. You can outmuscle Scotland and USA all you want, there's no way it will work against teams with amazing flair like the Argies, Aus and NZ. They will need to score tries to beat the ABs because I have no doubt New Zealand will cross the line. And on that performance, I just cannot see them doing it. One dimensional bosh rugby is easy pickings for the All Blacks.

I think that it will be closer than one might think (based on recent history).

From most recent, the scores have been:

NZ 27 SA 20 (2015, Johannesburg),
SA 27 NZ 25 (2014, Johannesburg)
NZ 14 SA 10 (2014, Wellington).

I still expect we will lose - by under 10 points though.

 

[ABs2011]

I am not sure how the ABs become favourites all of a sudden, they are playing a team that can beat them on a neutral ground (probably more hostile than neutral in reality), history doesnt favour the ABs in RWC matches against South Africa but it does in general internationals so I see it as a 50-50 game.

I'm not sure where this comes from, but they All Blacks have been favourites for this world cup from the time the last one finished. They have never been anything but very tight favourites!

History of the ABs vs SA in RWCs is meaningless IMO. You are talking about 3 games in total, the most recent of which was some 12 years ago. The history of these two teams in general is what is more important, particulalry over the last 4 years. So if you look at the games played since the last RWC, they have played 7: ABs 6 v SA 1. That includes 3 away wins for NZ as well!

I'm not saying the ABs will win, but their favourites tag is certainly warranted! I'd call this game as more like 70-30 at best. The bookies (over hear) have it more like 75-25. So roughly a one in four chance of SA winning this game!

 

[tompaton7]

I think that it will be closer than one might think (based on recent history).

From most recent, the scores have been:

NZ 27 SA 20 (2015, Johannesburg),
SA 27 NZ 25 (2014, Johannesburg)
NZ 14 SA 10 (2014, Wellington).

I still expect we will lose - by under 10 points though.

If you start using your backs and playing with a little bit of flair like you did in those 3 games then of course its possible. But you have reverted away from that game plan this year. The backs barely had a sniff against Wales and nothing is being created. Honestly the only way I see you scoring is through a rolling maul.

 

[Zed]

I don't think this is a strong SA team, but they are the team that has very little pressure. They lost of Japan... they shouldn't by rights be in the semis, so I think that will benefit them. New Zealand should win by 10points+, but I suppose it comes down to how well they cope with the added pressure they're under.

 

[webbyinjapan]

I honestly cannot see anyone beating this ABs team. The rugby it played against France was incredible! A wonderful advert for how the game should be played.

 

[nzlizard]

Im still thinking its a 51/49 to the AB's

Waiting on teams named before I change that.

Semi final time and you can throw away everything from the last 3 years and just take this as a one off test that both teams want.

We all now what the Boks are capable off and we will need to play like we did against France if we want a chance of beating them.

 

[ABs2011]

Im still thinking its a 51/49 to the AB's

Waiting on teams named before I change that.

Semi final time and you can throw away everything from the last 3 years and just take this as a one off test that both teams want.

We all now what the Boks are capable off and we will need to play like we did against France if we want a chance of beating them.

To be fair I think this post is refletive of the way many conservative NZ supporters feel now during RWCs after suffering way too many shock losses over the years!!

Also, as with any game, you can to some extent throw out the history books because every game is just played on the day, BUT, the recent record of the ABs v SA does speak volumes. The ABs are the better team, so if we put our conservatism aside, and take this at face value, the ABs are surely at worst a 60-40 shot, but more realistically 70-30.

At the risk of sounding cocky I am actually hoping to sound realistic here.

 

[Sonic Kiwi]

Thank god there's no knock on's in soccer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ccNkksrfls

- - - Updated - - -

 

[PacDuran]

Im still thinking its a 51/49 to the AB's

Waiting on teams named before I change that.

Semi final time and you can throw away everything from the last 3 years and just take this as a one off test that both teams want.

We all now what the Boks are capable off and we will need to play like we did against France if we want a chance of beating them.

ABs are huge favourites man, no two ways about it. It all depends on how forceful the Boks are in contact. I think they need to use a drift defence to counter act the ABs back play.

Pollard surely cannot start after his woeful kicking last weekend?

 

[nzlizard]

To be fair I think this post is refletive of the way many conservative NZ supporters feel now during RWCs after suffering way too many shock losses over the years!!

Also, as with any game, you can to some extent throw out the history books because every game is just played on the day, BUT, the recent record of the ABs v SA does speak volumes. The ABs are the better team, so if we put our conservatism aside, and take this at face value, the ABs are surely at worst a 60-40 shot, but more realistically 70-30.

At the risk of sounding cocky I am actually hoping to sound realistic here.

You are right, I have watched every world cup since 87 and have been on the receiving end of some shocks results so now I never like to count the chickens before they hatch.

One game at a time, I do feel confident we will beat them but I am not confident of putting 2 matches like the France one together in a row and I know the Boks are due a big game soon.

 

[Aspry]

ABs are huge favourites man, no two ways about it. It all depends on how forceful the Boks are in contact. I think they need to use a drift defence to counter act the ABs back play.

Pollard surely cannot start after his woeful kicking last weekend?

Where's Morné then?? Any chance he'd start?

 

[Zapphod]

To be fair I think this post is refletive of the way many conservative NZ supporters feel now during RWCs after suffering way too many shock losses over the years!!

Also, as with any game, you can to some extent throw out the history books because every game is just played on the day, BUT, the recent record of the ABs v SA does speak volumes. The ABs are the better team, so if we put our conservatism aside, and take this at face value, the ABs are surely at worst a 60-40 shot, but more realistically 70-30.

At the risk of sounding cocky I am actually hoping to sound realistic here.

But could it also be a realistic view after all the All Blacks have not exactly been the most successful at the RWC.

In almost every cup we have gone in with the mantle of "favourite" and failed dismally at every one away from home, why is there any reason to believe this one will be any different.

The form in the pools was decidedly indifferent and outside of 20-30 minutes in the second half the match against France wasn't really anything to write home about, yet because of that 20-30 minutes we are suddenly unbeatable again?

Can we win the cup, indeed we can but there is nothing to say we will and all three of the teams left in the competition can beat us and two of them routinely do.

 

[sharkfan]

Great!, the ref for Saturday's semi-final is the same guy that reffed the SA vs Japan game. And guess who is one of the touch judges, every springbok fan's favorite ref in the whole world, Romain Poite. The All Blacks definitely have this one!!

 

[WaterboySA]

Had a good night's rest, and still think the AB's will win. Physically we could give them a go for 50 minutes, and then they will run us into the ground.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I don't think this is a strong SA team, but they are the team that has very little pressure. They lost of Japan... they shouldn't by rights be in the semis, so I think that will benefit them. New Zealand should win by 10points+, but I suppose it comes down to how well they cope with the added pressure they're under.

An Aussie saying SA shouldn't (by rights) be in the Semi's...

Wow!

Great!, the ref for Saturday's semi-final is the same guy that reffed the SA vs Japan game. And guess who is one of the touch judges, every springbok fan's favorite ref in the whole world, Romain Poite. The All Blacks definitely have this one!!

Yep. When I read its Garces my heart just dropped. There goes the one area I thought we might pressure NZ; at the breakdown with guys like Bismarck, Louw, Vermeulen, De Allende, Habana etc etc. That's our biggest weapon nullified. NZ will adapt better than us. We are as good as out. We needed Owens, Barnes or Walsh (I know he isn't on the panel).

 

[TRF_heineken]

Where's Morné then?? Any chance he'd start?

Well we'll know tomorrow who's going to play.

With Willie Le Roux being a doubt to play, my guess is that Lambie would start at 15 and Morne Steyn will be on the bench.

 

[Bazzy]

This is going to be such a tough game. Momentum counts for nothing in knockout rugby and I don't think things are going to click as well as it did in the quarters.

I still believe that we'll sneak over though but doubt there would be more than 5pts between the teams.

 

[KeyboardWorrier]

This is going to be such a tough game. Momentum counts for nothing in knockout rugby and I don't think things are going to click as well as it did in the quarters.

I still believe that we'll sneak over though but doubt there would be more than 5pts between the teams.

Look, I've a different view point. I feel that NZ will either loose by 10pts or less or win by 20pts or more. It won't be close either way.

 

[Bazzy]

Look, I've a different view point. I feel that NZ will either loose by 10pts or less or win by 20pts or more. It won't be close either way.

All Blacks aren't the French.

 

[WaterboySA]

With Willie Le Roux being a doubt to play, my guess is that Lambie would start at 15 and Morne Steyn will be on the bench.

That's what I would do anyways. Willie has done NOTHING this WC. He's been a disappointment. I would still start Handre at 10.And instruct him to be in Carter's face the whole game.