(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[Goodey]

Based on this week I'd have Watson at fullback

i.e. I'd cheat

 

[MikeTheNative]

Honestly thought Brown didn't play very well. Constantly seeked contact instead of passing it to other players and I'm sure he cost a few chances good chances by not giving it. My team would be:-

Furlong
Owens
Cole
Launchbury
Itoje
Stander
Tipruic
Falteau (Both him and Vunipola need to get some form behind them though)
Murray
Farrell
Watson
Henshaw
Joseph
North
Liam Williams

I know there are no Scottish in but I would be still be happy if Hogg, Grey brothers, Dunbar or Seymour, started instead of the players I selected.

 

[HenryChinaski]

Honestly thought Brown didn't play very well. Constantly seeked contact instead of passing it to other players and I'm sure he cost a few chances good chances by not giving it. My team would be:-

Furlong
Owens
Cole
Launchbury
Itoje
Stander
Tipruic
Falteau (Both him and Vunipola need to get some form behind them though)
Murray
Farrell
Watson
Henshaw
Joseph
North
Liam Williams

I know there are no Scottish in but I would be still be happy if Hogg, Grey brothers, Dunbar or Seymour, started instead of the players I selected.

Somewhat agree but:

1) Furlong and Cole are both tight heads. Furlong is the better one imo. Loosehead would be Mcgrath
1) No earthly reason to pick Liam Williams above Hogg. Liam Williams definitely the next best but better to shift him to a wing (Watson's only just back)
2) I don't know that the lions will play a game to suit Tipuric, even though he's the form 7. Better to pick Warburton there to play with Stander.
3) No reason to break up the Sexton / Murray pairing as far as I can see. Farrells development under Eddie Jones has been as a 12 not as a stand-off and I think he should stay there (sorry Henshaw). Sexton still the best 10.
4) I'd pick Vunipola. It's strange how this has gone from being the most competitive position to a position where no-one is particularly in form.

 

[Maverick1987]

Somewhat agree but:

1) Furlong and Cole are both tight heads. Furlong is the better one imo. Loosehead would be Mcgrath
1) No earthly reason to pick Liam Williams above Hogg. Liam Williams definitely the next best but better to shift him to a wing (Watson's only just back)
2) I don't know that the lions will play a game to suit Tipuric, even though he's the form 7. Better to pick Warburton there to play with Stander.
3) No reason to break up the Sexton / Murray pairing as far as I can see. Farrells development under Eddie Jones has been as a 12 not as a stand-off and I think he should stay there (sorry Henshaw). Sexton still the best 10.
4) I'd pick Vunipola. It's strange how this has gone from being the most competitive position to a position where no-one is particularly in form.

Yep completely agree with this . A few days ago I picked a team on this thread . The only change I'd make from this week is I'd put AWJ in instead of J. Gray

 

[ALJ]

4) I'd pick Vunipola. It's strange how this has gone from being the most competitive position to a position where no-one is particularly in form.

I don't understand why anyone would say Vunipola is out of form - first game back and on as sub (after one club game in 3 months), some nice touches, one try & one assist.

Not quite sure what people were expecting but personally, I think that's an excellent return to the side.

 

[HenryChinaski]

I don't understand why anyone would say Vunipola is out of form - first game back and on as sub (after one club game in 3 months), some nice touches, one try & one assist.

Not quite sure what people were expecting but personally, I think that's an excellent return to the side.

I was referring to other 8s. Vunipola isn't out of form so much as practise. He just needs more game time before we can say he's back to his best.

 

[McTallshort]

Way its shaping up is...

LH-McGrath/Mako
Hooker- George/an other
TH-Furlong/Cole
2Nd Row- AWJ/Launchbury/Itoje/J Gray/ possibly Lawes
Flankers- Warburton/Stander/Haskell/O'Brian (if he finds form)/ Tipiric
No8-Billy/Toby
SH- Webb/Murray
FH-Sexton/Farrell (also IC)
IC-Henshaw/
OC-JJ/Jones
Wings- North/Nowell/Watson/Williams
FB-Hogg/An other

That's a squad of 31 but would also have Daly to cover the backline and possibly another Hooker with an additional 2 props but no one stands out yet.

 

[MikeTheNative]

Somewhat agree but:

1) Furlong and Cole are both tight heads. Furlong is the better one imo. Loosehead would be Mcgrath
1) No earthly reason to pick Liam Williams above Hogg. Liam Williams definitely the next best but better to shift him to a wing (Watson's only just back)
2) I don't know that the lions will play a game to suit Tipuric, even though he's the form 7. Better to pick Warburton there to play with Stander.
3) No reason to break up the Sexton / Murray pairing as far as I can see. Farrells development under Eddie Jones has been as a 12 not as a stand-off and I think he should stay there (sorry Henshaw). Sexton still the best 10.
4) I'd pick Vunipola. It's strange how this has gone from being the most competitive position to a position where no-one is particularly in form.

My mistake with Furlong. I'd put him to 3 then and would start Vunipola. With regards to Liam Williams, perhaps it's just Welsh bias but I think he is an amazing player who is a bit more solid defensively than Hogg. Farrell is still a quality 10, England play him at 12 as it suits them best but that's not the necessarily case with the Lions. As for Tipiric, I'm hoping for an expansive game... perhaps I'm being naive.

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I've been impressed with Jamie George every time he has come on for England. I would take him over Hartley who I don't think has been playing his best this championship.

 

[HenryChinaski]

My mistake with Furlong. I'd put him to 3 then and would start Vunipola. With regards to Liam Williams, perhaps it's just Welsh bias but I think he is an amazing player who is a bit more solid defensively than Hogg. Farrell is still a quality 10, England play him at 12 as it suits them best but that's not the necessarily case with the Lions. As for Tipiric, I'm hoping for an expansive game... perhaps I'm being naive.

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I've been impressed with Jamie George every time he has come on for England. I would take him over Hartley who I don't think has been playing his best this championship.

You could change your name to naive mike! I jest..
I think Liam is an incredible player too and without doubt would feature in my back three.

Re Tipuric I could be wrong.. jiffy is correct in saying that since the all blacks will score tries against us, we need to pick guys who can score tries against them...If Gatland embraces that idea then we could have a lions side with a different philosophy to 2013 and one in which Tipuric could flourish.

But still worth remembering that Gatland likes Warburton more than Tipuric . And he won't play both for the lions since we need an extra carrier in the tight.

 

[HenryChinaski]

Does anyone think we can win a game this tour?

 

[MikeTheNative]

Does anyone think we can win a game this tour?

I think the Lions have the players to win, whether they will be able to gel as a team enough to pulls off a win or Gatland being able to coach them well is another matter. It's a shame that Eddie Jones didn't take the job.

 

[barkinghooker]

I think we'll get beat 3-0 . two close games and a thrashing. The lions simply won't be together long enough to play like an established team.

 

[ncurd]

A game.....yes. Possibly the series.

However I think they need to basically take the England team, attempt to play their way an augment it where needed.

If we try to play in another style and create their own systems we MIGHT win one game but I wouldn't bet on it as its likely too short a time to get it working well enough.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I reckon we're losing most or all of the Super Rugby games. Have a chance against the All Blacks though when we're putting out a first team. Facing the Hurricanes without our test players could be a slaughter...

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Does anyone think we can win a game this tour?

I think they'll win half of their games, not a test though. 10/11 on NZ taking the series 3-0 looks handy.

 

[ALJ]

I reckon we're losing most or all of the Super Rugby games. Have a chance against the All Blacks though when we're putting out a first team. Facing the Hurricanes without our test players could be a slaughter...

Hmm, maybe but the side for the 'midweek' games will still be made up of a selection of some of the best international players the home nations have to offer.

Time together is going to be an issue but I think I'm probably a little more optimistic about the SR games and (maybe) a little less optimistic for the tests.

 

[General Melchett]

I think the AB's will win 3-0.

The schedule is too brutal. Taking into account the likelihood of injuries and the new HIA protocol we could well see 4-5 first choice players not even being available for the first test.

 

[MikeTheNative]

I agree about the schedule seems they were more concerned about how much money can be made instead of player welfare and the chances of winning.

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How many players are they going to take? At least 35?

 

[Maverick1987]

Hmm, maybe but the side for the 'midweek' games will still be made up of a selection of some of the best international players the home nations have to offer.

Time together is going to be an issue but I think I'm probably a little more optimistic about the SR games and (maybe) a little less optimistic for the tests.

This is it . Personally to combat the time together I'd put in as many players as possible from 1 team . Especially in the key positions like half backs and centres . I'd either go Murray, Sexton, Faz and JJ or Murray, Ford, Faz and JJ Maybe Webb instead of Murray in the second one . There's obvious benefits to Murray in the first one as Sexton is there . Front row id go for Furlong and McGrath with Jamie George for the same reasons (Jamie George because I've not been at all impressed by Rory Best)

 

[HenryChinaski]

2017 versus 2013

Completely pointless of course but I thought I'd compare the likely squad to the 2013 gang.

2013

Rory Best
Richard Hibbard
Tom Youngs

2017

Ken Owens
Jamie George
Rory Best

The 2013 hookers don't look too exciting to us now, but Youngs and Hbbard offered a lot back then. Youngs' carrying was really crucial and Hibbard brought huge physicality. Rory Best possibly was more impactful at the breakdown back in 2013. All of the above gave away a little at the lineout on paper, though Youngs who I was worried about went fine. the 2017 line out should be stronger and the scrum at least as good. Not a lot of difference between the two sets.

2013

Dan Cole
Adam Jones
Matt Stevens

2017

Tadgh Furlong
Dan Cole
WP Nell

We haven't a tight head prop with the power and reliability of Adam Jones. However Furlong is a strong scrummager and more in evidence around the field. WP Nell a better scrummager than Stevens whilst Dan Cole has 4 years more experience. Overall, happier with the likely 2017 lions.

2013

Mako Vunipola
Cian Healy
Gethin Jenkins

2017

Jack McGrath
Mako Vunipola
Cian Healy

Tough to compare since two of the players could be the same. I think the 2017 versions of these players will be more reliable at the scrum where we were a little weak as time. Once you bring in corbisiero to consideration it's a little different of course, and I don't know that Healy has ever been the same after some of his injuries. Still I'm happier with the 2017 set if only because of consistency.

2013

Ian Evans
Richie Gray
Alun Wyn Jones.
Paul O'Connell
Geoff Parling

2017

Alun Wyn-Jones
Joe Launchbury
Maro Itoje
Johnny Gray
Iain Henderson

We're likely to have a lot more quality than in 2013. Ian Evans was a reliable old workhorse but Richie Gray was just the best of an inspiring bunch. Who would have expected Parling to go a few years before 2013? The overall level is a step above in 2017 with a likely set of extremely mobile and busy locks. The only worry is the leadership value - O Connell and Paling (and Jones) were good leaders back in 13 and so they'll be more pressure on Alun-Wyn. Tougher selection choices in 2017 for sure.

2013

Tom Croft
Dan Lydiate
Sean O'Brien
Justin Tipuric
Sam Warburton(c)
Taulupe Faletau
Jamie Heaslip

2017

CJ Stander
Sam Warburton
Justin Tipuric
Hamish Watson
Billy Vunipola
Toby Faletau
James Haskell? Jamie Heaslip?


This is difficult but I think the back-row was very strong in 2013 despite the presence of Lydiate and Croft. Croft in his defence offered something more different than we are likely to have in 2017, despite his flaws. Despite how competitive it is I'm not massively enthused about the 2017 set. Added to which the form of O'Brien, Warburton, Faletau and Heaslip was far better in 2013. Overall I prefer 2013 but a back-row of Stander, Warburton and Vunipola could be excellent.


2013

Conor Murray
Mike Phillips
Ben Youngs

2017

Conor Murray
Rhys Webb
Greg Laidlaw

Lions seem to be in better shape for 2017. Conor Murray has only improved, Philips is gone and we have other choices for a pesky sniping 9 than we did in 2013. Gatland will value game management which is why Laidlaw has a strong chance, though I think we stand to get enough of that from our 10s and would instead go for Youngs on the off chance he'll decide to do something good. I'm happier with the likely 9s for 2017

2013

Owen Farrell
Jonathan Sexton

2017

Jonathan Sexton
George Ford

We have more options than in 2017. I have no idea frankly how the Irish would compare Sexton to his 2013 self, but Farrell has improved significantly and Ford will attack the All-Blacks if he gets a place. That's how we win.

2013

Jonathan Davies
Brian O'Driscoll
Jamie Roberts
Manu Tuilagi

2017

Owen Farrell
Jonathan Joseph
Robbie Henshaw
Jonathan Davies

Not completely convinced about our midfield options this time. We had bags of potential last time and Jonathan Davies was in better shape but more to the point the combinations last time seemed more obvious to me. I have doubts about Farrell at 12 alongside Sexton who could clash. Not sure it will work quite the same as it does for England. I'd quite like to see Henshaw and Joseph together, but it feels unlikely. I think Davies will go because he offers something different though I'd take Daly instead myself. Gatland may still surprise us.

2013

Tommy Bowe
Alex Cuthbert
Sean Maitland
George North

2017

George North
Liam Williams
Anthony Watson?
Tommy Seymour?

It's that thing of the first choice options in 2013 were probably better, or at least more in form, while the overall quality level of the 2017 bunch will be better. Bearing in mind that injuries do happen, I expect our bunch will prove to be better overall than the 2013 lot, even though I thought Bowe and North were the single best pairing.

2013

Leigh Halfpenny
Stuart Hogg
Rob Kearney

2017

Stuart Hogg
? Kearney?

I think overall things were better in 2013. Hogg is better now but Kearney and Halfpenny were both better back then. It's also an area where I feel clueless as to who will actually go. It depends upon whether Liam Williams, Anthony Watson or Elliott Daly could be seen as full-backs. People give Halfpenny stick but in 2013 his overall game was excellent and I would argue Halfpenny was the single most important part of the 2013 win.

Overall, this was far harder than I expected. Because of how competitive I think 2017 is for places I'd almost come to think that we're a lot better automatically than in 2013. On review, there's absolutely no room for fillers such as Matt Stevens on this tour and you can bet that injury calls up are of a higher quality than Brad Barritt and Billy Twelvetrees - but that doesn't mean our first choices are better at all. I'm worried about the form of some of our best potential back-rowers and Taken as units:

Hookers : Similar
Props: Better
Locks: Better
Back-row: Similar/weaker

Half-backs: Better
Centres: Similar/weaker
Wings: Overall Better
Full-backs: Weaker

In short I've not convinced we're strengthened enough to beat the all-blacks. I think we're lose at least 2 midweek games and at most we have a shot at one test win. I think if Gatland tries to play his usual style we'll get seriously beat. If he picks creative and attacking players across the board and a big pack I think we'll do better. Wow, I'm negative - but the question is am I being fair?