(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[Which Tyler]

I think the AB's will win 3-0.

The schedule is too brutal. Taking into account the likelihood of injuries and the new HIA protocol we could well see 4-5 first choice players not even being available for the first test.

This

We have the talent to win matches, and the series; but the odds are too stacked against us.

There's not enough preparation time together (a constant problem for scratch teams like the lions / Baabaa.s).
The schedule is too brutal, which will affect who's available to play, and even more importantly, who's available to train.
Beyond that, Gatland doesn't know how to coach a game-plan that actually stand much chance against NZ; and even if he did, his ego wouldn't let him try.

 

[Ruud]

My assessment as it stands:

Loosehead Prop
On the plane: McGrath, Vunipola
Almost there: Marler
Needs a big week: Evans, Healy

Hooker
On the plane: Best
Almost there: George
Needs a big week: Hartley, Owens

Tighthead Prop
On the plane: Furlong, Cole
Needs a big week: Sinckler, Francis
Outside Chance: Nel

2nd Row
On the plane: Launchbury, A-W Jones, Itoje
Almost there: J Gray
Needs a big week: Lawes, Henderson, R Gray, Ball
Outside Chance: Kruis

Back Row
On the plane: Stander, Warburton, Vunipola
Almost there: Haskell, Tipuric
Needs a big week: Watson, Heaslip, Faletau, Moriarty, O’Brien
Outside Chance: Robshaw

Scrum-Half
On the plane: Murray
Almost there: Webb
Needs a big week: Youngs, Care

Fly-Half
On the plane: Sexton
Almost there: Ford
Needs a big week: Biggar, Russell

Centre
On the plane: Farrell
Almost there: Henshaw, Joseph
Needs a big week: J Davies, S Williams, Jones, Ringrose

Wing
On the plane: NOBODY!
Almost there: North
Needs a big week: Seymour, Maitland, Visser, Daly, Watson, Nowell, May, Gilroy, Zebo

Fullback
On the plane: Hogg, L Williamas
Almost there: Halfpenny
Needs a big week: Brown, Kearney

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

My assessment as it stands:

Loosehead Prop
On the plane: McGrath, Vunipola
Almost there: Marler
Needs a big week: Evans, Healy

Hooker
On the plane: Best
Almost there: George
Needs a big week: Hartley, Owens

Tighthead Prop
On the plane: Furlong, Cole
Needs a big week: Sinckler, Francis
Outside Chance: Nel

2nd Row
On the plane: Launchbury, A-W Jones, Itoje
Almost there: J Gray
Needs a big week: Lawes, Henderson, R Gray, Ball
Outside Chance: Kruis

Back Row
On the plane: Stander, Warburton, Vunipola
Almost there: Haskell, Tipuric
Needs a big week: Watson, Heaslip, Faletau, Moriarty, O’Brien
Outside Chance: Robshaw

Scrum-Half
On the plane: Murray
Almost there: Webb
Needs a big week: Youngs, Care

Fly-Half
On the plane: Sexton
Almost there: Ford
Needs a big week: Biggar, Russell

Centre
On the plane: Farrell
Almost there: Henshaw, Joseph
Needs a big week: J Davies, S Williams, Jones, Ringrose

Wing
On the plane: NOBODY!
Almost there: North
Needs a big week: Seymour, Maitland, Visser, Daly, Watson, Nowell, May, Gilroy, Zebo

Fullback
On the plane: Hogg, L Williamas
Almost there: Halfpenny
Needs a big week: Brown, Kearney

Welcome to the forum Ruud. You're mostly spot on imo. My changes:

1) Owens is also on the plane for his performances this tournament. At the very least he's almost there.
2) Ball would need an astonishingly good game to get anywhere near the plane
3) Completely unsure whether Haskell is in Gatlands thoughts but I suspect he's a little further back. Has a chance though
4) It would be extremely hard to justify taking Biggar on this tour. The only very marginal point would be if Gatland wanted to do similar to what Woodward (foolishly did) back in 2005 which is to effectively split the lions into two parties, one of which is never expected to get near the tests. In this scenario, biggar could be a midweek way to get through the games without injury to better players. But this is really unlikely as I think Gatland does like to use all the games to learn something - and by now we know Bigger won't help you learn squat about your other backs!
5) Josephs on the plane simply because if you hope to beat the all-blacks you need a bit of magic. I don't see where else it's going to come from.
6) Browns another who would need a minor miracle to get onto the tour.

 

[ncurd]

Yeah after last week I'd be very very surprised if Joseph is not called up. Unless he ****s the bed bigtime this week he has to go.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Welcome to the forum Ruud. You're mostly spot on imo. My changes:

1) Owens is also on the plane for his performances this tournament. At the very least he's almost there.
2) Ball would need an astonishingly good game to get anywhere near the plane
3) Completely unsure whether Haskell is in Gatlands thoughts but I suspect he's a little further back. Has a chance though
4) It would be extremely hard to justify taking Biggar on this tour. The only very marginal point would be if Gatland wanted to do similar to what Woodward (foolishly did) back in 2005 which is to effectively split the lions into two parties, one of which is never expected to get near the tests. In this scenario, biggar could be a midweek way to get through the games without injury to better players. But this is really unlikely as I think Gatland does like to use all the games to learn something - and by now we know Bigger won't help you learn squat about your other backs!
5) Josephs on the plane simply because if you hope to beat the all-blacks you need a bit of magic. I don't see where else it's going to come from.
6) Browns another who would need a minor miracle to get onto the tour.

Apart from a performance against incompetent Scots what magic has JJ brought this tournament? Not saying he shouldn't go but Murray, Sexton, Henshaw, North, Watson, Nowell, Williams, Daly etc... can all bring magic too.

Vunipola and Stander in the pack too.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

What magic has Henshaw brought?

 

[ratsapprentice]

What magic has Henshaw brought?

Don't understand the hype around him...

 

[BPM]

Yeah after last week I'd be very very surprised if Joseph is not called up. Unless he ****s the bed bigtime this week he has to go.

While he hadn't been setting the world alight in attack before last weekend, it's hardly like Joseph's reputation is built on that one game.

The guy has plenty of pedigree is a top class international centre and is arguably the best defender in the NH at 13.

Davies is probably his closest challenger, but personally I think Joseph is better in both attack and defence. Daly will also be in the mix, but the question with him will be whether Gatland thinks of him as a centre of a winger.

Similarly, Henshaw's suffered from being shuffled between 12 and 13 (I think he'll go as a 12) and while Jones and Ringrose have obvious talent, they're nowhere near as established as JJ.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Apart from a performance against incompetent Scots what magic has JJ brought this tournament? Not saying he shouldn't go but Murray, Sexton, Henshaw, North, Watson, Nowell, Williams, Daly etc... can all bring magic too.

Vunipola and Stander in the pack too.

1) JJ has done what was required in every game. His defence has been strong, he's managed to find half gaps, and the moment we got a more open game, he easily took advantage of it. With JJ, his ability to open defences isn't at the expense of anything.

2) The players you mentioned have different kinds of "magic" to bring, but Imo you need the ability to unlock the opposition from different parts of the pitch. I don't think you should have all your attacking ability in the back 3, you may not get the kind of game where those players can influence it.

3) Who else are you going to pick at 13? I'm not saying there aren't good payers there, of course there are but are they better? Not really.

4) Scotland were incompetent in some ways of course but they were made to look a lot worse than they might have by the ability of the 10 - 12 - 13 axis. (As well as the referee who was bad).

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

What magic has Henshaw brought?

He's probably been Ireland's best back, not that that says much but he made a number of huge tackles against the Welsh, weighted a couple of fantastic kicks too and can set up a better platform off first phase ball than any other available centre, he scored a pretty important try while outplaying the New Zealand midfield a five months ago and I think his concussion was the main difference between the sides in Dublin. Not that its a comparison between those two, nor am I saying Joseph can't bring magic but stating that he's the only one is a bit far, hence my naming of 10 other players, not all of whom have brought magic this tournament either. Gilroy dismantled poor Italian defence and scored a hattrick in 25mins, I wouldn't have him near the plane!

I think, assuming you have Hogg at 15, Henshaw and Joseph is the obvious centre partnership, Henshaw is the best available centre in my opinion as well. Keeping Murray, Sexton and Henshaw together while having Joseph working with two English wings with Farrell and Williams to spring from the bench is about as harmonious and strong as the backline will get.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Getting you hard isn't magic Alpha. Viagra does that and it isn't magic.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

He's probably been Ireland's best back, not that that says much but he made a number of huge tackles against the Welsh, weighted a couple of fantastic kicks too and can set up a better platform off first phase ball than any other available centre, he scored a pretty important try while outplaying the New Zealand midfield a five months ago and I think his concussion was the main difference between the sides in Dublin. Not that its a comparison between those two, nor am I saying Joseph can't bring magic but stating that he's the only one is a bit far, hence my naming of 10 other players, not all of whom have brought magic this tournament either. Gilroy dismantled poor Italian defence and scored a hattrick in 25mins, I wouldn't have him near the plane!

I think, assuming you have Hogg at 15, Henshaw and Joseph is the obvious centre partnership, Henshaw is the best available centre in my opinion as well. Keeping Murray, Sexton and Henshaw together while having Joseph working with two English wings with Farrell and Williams to spring from the bench is about as harmonious and strong as the backline will get.

I meant the only one at 13 - not in the entire squad! Yeah there's tons when you consider Hogg, Williams etc. But at 13 I see no reason not to pick JJ

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

1) JJ has done what was required in every game. His defence has been strong, he's managed to find half gaps, and the moment we got a more open game, he easily took advantage of it. With JJ, his ability to open defences isn't at the expense of anything.

2) The players you mentioned have different kinds of "magic" to bring, but Imo you need the ability to unlock the opposition from different parts of the pitch. I don't think you should have all your attacking ability in the back 3, you may not get the kind of game where those players can influence it.

3) Who else are you going to pick at 13? I'm not saying there aren't good payers there, of course there are but are they better? Not really.

4) Scotland were incompetent in some ways of course but they were made to look a lot worse than they might have by the ability of the 10 - 12 - 13 axis. (As well as the referee who was bad).

I agree with all that, it was this quote "to beat the all-blacks you need a bit of magic. I don't see where else it's going to come from." that didn't make sense to me, its not as if JJ is going to be tearing teams apart without Ford and Farrell getting to do what they want like last Saturday. To beat NZ you need 'magic' all over the pitch and linebreaks can come from anywhere. When Ireland beat them it was Murray, Henshaw, Zebo and Kearney doing it in the backs with Sexton and Carbery pulling the strings, it'll take a lot more than getting JJ space for the Lions to beat NZ, releasing guys like Nowell and Watson and allowing Sexton and Hogg to create and use space will be the only way its going to happen.

Edit: Didn't see your reply, yeah we're on the same page there. Jones and Ringrose could do it but they'd need much better conditions than JJ.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

There's also an assumption creeping in here which is that Scotland were so bad, any team would have looked great against them. It's just not the case. England were extremely precise and ruthless, had a better set-piece, and had a little help from the referee. I don't think any of the other teams in the tournament, while as good in other ways, would have done anywhere near that to Scotland off first phase ball. I think it's really easy therefore to write off the way the 10 - 12 - 13 axis played but that's not right imo.

- - - Updated - - -

I agree with all that, it was this quote "to beat the all-blacks you need a bit of magic. I don't see where else it's going to come from." that didn't make sense to me, its not as if JJ is going to be tearing teams apart without Ford and Farrell getting to do what they want like last Saturday. To beat NZ you need 'magic' all over the pitch and linebreaks can come from anywhere. When Ireland beat them it was Murray, Henshaw, Zebo and Kearney doing it in the backs with Sexton and Carbery pulling the strings, it'll take a lot more than getting JJ space for the Lions to beat NZ, releasing guys like Nowell and Watson and allowing Sexton and Hogg to create and use space will be the only way its going to happen.

Agree with that...bottom line is I don't think we're going to win and to have a better chance we can't ignore those who can do something from nothing. Includes all those you mentioned.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Getting you hard isn't magic Alpha. Viagra does that and it isn't magic.

I have an Eidetic 'Tigs praising Leinster players' memory and could make you look very silly if you challenge me further boy.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

In my mind Henshaw-Joseph is bolted on as the partnership. I agree Henshaw doesn't bring much 'magic' but he's just about the most consistent back in the NH at the moment. His entering the maul vs Wales is just about the only thing you can hold against him. Huge in defence, a good kicking and passing game and although not Roberts or Te'o, a powerful runner. That said, wouldn't have a problem with Farrell at 12.

On JJ, there's no one I can see taking his shirt. Davies simply isn't as good and although Ringrose and Jones have heaps of potential, they aren't on his level yet. Henshaw and Daly haven't had enough game time at 13 internationally to be considered to take JJ's place. That's my opinion anyway.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I have an Eidetic 'Tigs praising Leinster players' memory and could make you look very silly if you challenge me further boy.

Lies.

I was prob drunk.

 

[munstermuffin]

On Lions anyone can loose their shirt if their not on form. And the tour is so intense its very possible someone not in the original squad will start 1st test

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

So with 4 rounds gone I've changed my mind a bit. For the next 72 hours this is set in stone:

1. McGrath. Still think Mako's best from the bench.

2. God knows. Owens is probably the form horse. George is favoured by many, but he's been exclusively used by Eng from the bench and I think that will count against him and be his fate again. If Eng win back to back GS it's very hard to look beyond Hartley - he's clearly bringing something to the party and he'd be super motivated against NZ (which could be dangerous). Should ensure set piece solidity.

3. Furlong. Might Sinckler might a be a surprise bolter for the bench?

4. Launchbury. Looks an unlikely athlete and perenially knackered, but a class act who's too good to leave out.

5. AWJ. Mr Consistent. You know he'll be up for the fight and experience counts in his favour.

6. Stander. Handful for anyone. He'll take the fight to the ABs and won't die wondering.

7. Warbs. Back to the heights of old and I think looking odds on to reprise the captain's role. Tough on Tips.

8. Vunipola, B. He'll cause anyone problems. Sometime's he's been Eng's only carrier, pairing him with another big carrier in Stander might mean he's not as closely marked.

9. Murray. Not been hitting the real heights, but still inked in.

10. Bit of a volte face going on here. Ford. You have to be smart as well as physical to beat the ABs and I'm beginning to think the best chance may be with 2 play makers. If going that way I can't see beyond Ford and Farrell as they know each other so well, irrespective of the individual merits of Sexton etc.

11. North. Big game player who'll add physicality to the back line. Just give him the bloody ball.

12. Farrell. Another with big match temperament. As good as any from the tee and under rated in attack.

13. JJ. Shouldn't be any argument, a real class act in both attack and defence.

14. Watson. Any side fears real pace. May work well with Hogg.

15. Hogg. Not the percentage option, but a potential game breaker.

Bench: Mako, George, Cole, Itoje, Tips, Webb, Henshaw, Daly

 

[munstermuffin]

So with 4 rounds gone I've changed my mind a bit. For the next 72 hours this is set in stone:

1. McGrath. Still think Mako's best from the bench.

2. God knows. Owens is probably the form horse. George is favoured by many, but he's been exclusively used by Eng from the bench and I think that will count against him and be his fate again. If Eng win back to back GS it's very hard to look beyond Hartley - he's clearly bringing something to the party and he'd be super motivated against NZ (which could be dangerous). Should ensure set piece solidity.

3. Furlong. Might Sinckler might a be a surprise bolter for the bench?

4. Launchbury. Looks an unlikely athlete and perenially knackered, but a class act who's too good to leave out.

5. AWJ. Mr Consistent. You know he'll be up for the fight and experience counts in his favour.

6. Stander. Handful for anyone. He'll take the fight to the ABs and won't die wondering.

7. Warbs. Back to the heights of old and I think looking odds on to reprise the captain's role. Tough on Tips.

8. Vunipola, B. He'll cause anyone problems. Sometime's he's been Eng's only carrier, pairing him with another big carrier in Stander might mean he's not as closely marked.

9. Murray. Not been hitting the real heights, but still inked in.

10. Bit of a volte face going on here. Ford. You have to be smart as well as physical to beat the ABs and I'm beginning to think the best chance may be with 2 play makers. If going that way I can't see beyond Ford and Farrell as they know each other so well, irrespective of the individual merits of Sexton etc.

11. North. Big game player who'll add physicality to the back line. Just give him the bloody ball.

12. Farrell. Another with big match temperament. As good as any from the tee and under rated in attack.

13. JJ. Shouldn't be any argument, a real class act in both attack and defence.

14. Watson. Any side fears real pace. May work well with Hogg.

15. Hogg. Not the percentage option, but a potential game breaker.

Bench: Mako, George, Cole, Itoje, Tips, Webb, Henshaw, Daly

Nice team but still think Liam Williams will get in somewhere