(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

My current test side would be:

01 Jack McGrath. Solid at the set-piece, and puts himself around. Vunipola to add considerable impact off the bench.
02 Ken Owens. Has had a great 6 nations, whilst his competition have fallen away. Impact from George off the bench.
03 Tadgh Furlong. Impressive scrummager, and adds valuable work in the loose. Sinckler would be my pick on the bench if we're looking for maximum impact.
04 Joe Launchbury. Risen to the top of the second-row pile this 6 nations, such has been his consistent excellence.
05 AWJ (c). I feel that we'll need his experience, leadership, and consistent quality he brings. Hasn't been at his very best this 6 nations, but has looked very comfortable in an expansive Ospreys side this year, where his work in the loose has been excellent. Massive competition probably makes this a slightly biased selection.
06 CJ Stander. Another tough selection. Itoje could easily slot in here, although I feel he's destined for a bench spot covering 4, 5 & 6.
07 Justin Tipuric. Warburton another obvious candidate, but for me Tips is the right choice if we want to win test matches, not just compete.
08 Taulupe Faletau. For me it's still between Billy and Taulupe. Both been injured, but both world class. I think with Stander at 6, Faletau's all round class is more important in the starting lineup than Billy's all out power. Vunipola to make one hell of an impact off the bench! There's the obvious issue of Faletau not starting any 6 nations matches, but plenty of the season left to regain full fitness, and everyone knows how consistent Faletau is.

09 Rhys Webb. Not expecting many to agree, but for me Webb will cause the AB's more problems than Murray. Considering his injury issues since before the WC, Webb's form in the 6 nations has been nothing short of spectacular! A few mistakes, but nothing too bad, and given a run of fitness he'll iron those out.
10 Johnny Sexton. If fit, I'd play him. Ford is tempting, but Sexton's leadership and authority at 10 could prove crucial.
11 George North. Give him a little room and he could terrorize NZ like he did in Wales' first test out there in the summer.
12 Owen Farrell. Henshaw is tempting as well, but I really like the 2nd 5/8th option of Farrell. Options of playing left and right then if Gatland could get it to work.
13 Jonathan Joseph. All round the best option. Imo Davies is the better defensive 13, but I'm placing more emphasis on attacking in this side.
14 Watson. Really like Watson, really classy player with no real weaknesses. Pace will be important.
15 Stuart Hogg. Again, I'm picking with an emphasis on attack, and Hogg on the counter with North and Watson backing him up could be devastating.

16 Jamie George. Only obvious option who'd offer real impact.
17 Mako Vunipola. Bring him on to carry against tiring defenders.
18 Kyle Sinkler. Another to offer some good impact off the bench.
19 Maro Itoje. Could easily be a starter, and I probably would if we had another obvious captain in the pack.
20 Billy Vunipola. The ultimate impact sub?
21 Connor Murray. Could very well start with Webb offering impact off the bench.
22 Henshaw. With Farrell covering 10, Henshaw would be a good option coming off the bench.
23 Liam Williams. Daly would cover more positions, but Liam brings a little more experience + Henshaw would cover 13 before Daly imo.

9 English
7 Welsh
6 Irish
1 Scott

4 starting English although we won the 6 nations and have been head and shoulders above the other teams down under and in the summer. That doesn't make sense.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Would start with the English side and just pull out guys that have obviously better replacements.
Positions up to grab for me would be:
Front row
Blindside: probably have itoje play lock
Scrummy
Fly half
Inside center
Fullback

 

[dullonien]

4 starting English although we won the 6 nations and have been head and shoulders above the other teams down under and in the summer. That doesn't make sense.

Yeah I know. I was aware of that, and looked at places where I'd change things. Front row feels correct atm. I prefer the Irish props atm, because I think they've got the strongest all round games, i.e. scrummaging and loose. Hartley doesn't come close, whilst Jamie George isn't starting. I'd be tempted by George though, because I've not always been 100% convinced by Owens. Either would make a decent impact player off the bench.

In the second row, Itoje or Kruis when he returns could easily start alongside Launchbury. Like I said though, there's no other option for captain unless Warbs is picked in the backrow, and even then he's playing so much better without the burden of being captain, why give it back to him?

Backrow, Vunipola could easily start. I almost selected him, but I don't think a backrow containing Stander and Vunipola has the balance needed. It could work, or it could backfire with both getting in the way of each other. Whoever Gatland picks in the backrow, balance is key. So it'll unlikely to be the three best players. If you want power, to Stander, Warbs, Vunipola. Not convinced that's the way to beat NZ though, SA have tried and failed at that in the past.

In the backline, I think that's a fair number of English. Ford could be an option at 10, and I'd have no problem with him playing.

So yeah, it could easily jump to 7/8 starters.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Pick team then pick captain.

 

[Reiser99]

I definitely agree about picking team then captain. None of the current national captains look like they are playing the best in their position, so to build a team around a captain who isn't first choice seems wrong.

 

[McTallshort]

We havnt been head and shoulders above anyone apart from Scotland dullonien's team is a good one with a great bench

 

[General Melchett]

Would start with the English side and just pull out guys that have obviously better replacements.
Positions up to grab for me would be:
Front row
Blindside: probably have itoje play lock
Scrummy
Fly half
Inside center
Fullback

Inside centre is an interesting one because Gatland loves Owen Farrell and his closet rival at 12 is Robbie Henshaw. The only member of the Irish coaching staff on the Lions coaching staff is.......Farrell's Dad.

They have different qualities and Gatland needs to go with whoever he thinks can best execute the game plan needed to beat the AB's.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

I still don't understand why Johnny Sexton isn't being consider as a captain? I know people prefer a pack captain but we have a lack of candidates who are shoe-ins for a spot and by all accounts he's one of the most pivotal members of the Leinster/ireland dressing room

- - - Updated - - -

My current test side would be:

01 Jack McGrath. Solid at the set-piece, and puts himself around. Vunipola to add considerable impact off the bench.
02 Ken Owens. Has had a great 6 nations, whilst his competition have fallen away. Impact from George off the bench.
03 Tadgh Furlong. Impressive scrummager, and adds valuable work in the loose. Sinckler would be my pick on the bench if we're looking for maximum impact.
04 Joe Launchbury. Risen to the top of the second-row pile this 6 nations, such has been his consistent excellence.
05 AWJ (c). I feel that we'll need his experience, leadership, and consistent quality he brings. Hasn't been at his very best this 6 nations, but has looked very comfortable in an expansive Ospreys side this year, where his work in the loose has been excellent. Massive competition probably makes this a slightly biased selection.
06 CJ Stander. Another tough selection. Itoje could easily slot in here, although I feel he's destined for a bench spot covering 4, 5 & 6.
07 Justin Tipuric. Warburton another obvious candidate, but for me Tips is the right choice if we want to win test matches, not just compete.
08 Taulupe Faletau. For me it's still between Billy and Taulupe. Both been injured, but both world class. I think with Stander at 6, Faletau's all round class is more important in the starting lineup than Billy's all out power. Vunipola to make one hell of an impact off the bench! There's the obvious issue of Faletau not starting any 6 nations matches, but plenty of the season left to regain full fitness, and everyone knows how consistent Faletau is.

09 Rhys Webb. Not expecting many to agree, but for me Webb will cause the AB's more problems than Murray. Considering his injury issues since before the WC, Webb's form in the 6 nations has been nothing short of spectacular! A few mistakes, but nothing too bad, and given a run of fitness he'll iron those out.
10 Johnny Sexton. If fit, I'd play him. Ford is tempting, but Sexton's leadership and authority at 10 could prove crucial.
11 George North. Give him a little room and he could terrorize NZ like he did in Wales' first test out there in the summer.
12 Owen Farrell. Henshaw is tempting as well, but I really like the 2nd 5/8th option of Farrell. Options of playing left and right then if Gatland could get it to work.
13 Jonathan Joseph. All round the best option. Imo Davies is the better defensive 13, but I'm placing more emphasis on attacking in this side.
14 Watson. Really like Watson, really classy player with no real weaknesses. Pace will be important.
15 Stuart Hogg. Again, I'm picking with an emphasis on attack, and Hogg on the counter with North and Watson backing him up could be devastating.

16 Jamie George. Only obvious option who'd offer real impact.
17 Mako Vunipola. Bring him on to carry against tiring defenders.
18 Kyle Sinkler. Another to offer some good impact off the bench.
19 Maro Itoje. Could easily be a starter, and I probably would if we had another obvious captain in the pack.
20 Billy Vunipola. The ultimate impact sub?
21 Connor Murray. Could very well start with Webb offering impact off the bench.
22 Henshaw. With Farrell covering 10, Henshaw would be a good option coming off the bench.
23 Liam Williams. Daly would cover more positions, but Liam brings a little more experience + Henshaw would cover 13 before Daly imo.

9 English
7 Welsh
6 Irish
1 Scott

@dullonien The only thing I'm actively not comfortable with in your side is Webb starting - now don't get me wrong I think he's in the 23 right now but I think he makes a lot of little mistakes which could cost the lions dearly, and I'm not sure he's quite perfected the art of playing close to the edge but not stepping over the edge. I think with 18 more months international experience he will tighten up his game but for now I'm unsure..
You think he's ready?
Otherwise your squad makes a lot of sense. It always feels bad leaving someone like Itoje out who right now just makes all these little impacts across the field all the time which lifts the team when they need it. But your reasoning makes sense. Same goes for Faletau and Vunipola and I guess it's an equation of who loses most value by being a sub. I'd say Faletau's work ethic and all-round game comes through poorly from the bench so I can get behind him starting instead.

 

[dullonien]

Pick team then pick captain.

Can't always work that way unfortunately. Picking the tight captain is crucial Imo. There will be some crucial decisions yo be made on the field, whether to stick or twist (take the points to go for the corner). Some will point to AWJ being overruled by Biggar, but he'll have learned from that, and it won't happen again.

If a side like the following was picked, there's no obvious captain option:

McGrath, George, Furlong
Launchbury, Itoje
Stander, Vunipola, Tipuric

Webb, Ford
Henshaw, JJ
North, Hogg, Watson

Firstly, it's a good test side, however the only two there who have any meaningful captaincy experience are Tips and Webb for the Ospreys. Tips is a little quiet, Webb has actually been very good, but this would be a massive step-up. We all know Gats likes his captains in the forwards as well.

So Imo a little compromise may be required to fit a genuine captain into the side. Hartley would be too big a compromise Imo, whilst I'm really weary of Best as well (he fell apart in the lineout in 2013 as well). AWJ is still the obvious choice Imo. Some seriously underestimate the hard-working grit he brings to a team, we'll need that v NZ.

 

[General Melchett]

If we are to assume that Gatland will pick a forward as captain then it sort of makes sense to nominate a backs captain/leader (obvious choice is Sexton) who can either be introduced to the ref or who the forwards captain can confer with when penalties are awarded etc.

Glasgow has dual captaincy - Jonny Gray and Henry Pyrgos (when he plays). Gray calls the lineouts etc. and Pyrgos is backs captain.

 

[MikeTheNative]

Is everyone agreed on the 8 being Faleteau and Vuniploa? I must admit I've never really been a fan of Healsip but Josh Strauss was playing well until his injury. Also has a very good beard.

 

[Goodey]

For me both of them have something to prove, based on the six nations the shirt is Heaslip's.

I expect Vunipola to claim it but it's on the proviso that he plays like he was doing this time last year. Wouldn't be the first player to return from injury slowly.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

No ****ing way AWJ should be captain. Spineless.

I wouldn't mind seeing Warburton captain, he's a ton of experience in the role, as close to a starter as any (for me he should be first choice Openside, his form has been outstanding this tournament) and he's one of Gatland's boys so is a likely choice.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

No ****ing way AWJ should be captain. Spineless.

I wouldn't mind seeing Warburton captain, he's a ton of experience in the role, as close to a starter as any (for me he should be first choice Openside, his form has been outstanding this tournament) and he's one of Gatland's boys so is a likely choice.

Here here AWJ comments after the Scotland game showed he is a yellow belly prick.

Warburton has to be favourite for lions captain. The fact he was captain in the last lions series will help a lot.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Just a thought but maybe captaincy for lions is a different beast? Obviously you need good decision making but the lions is a lot about embodying the spirit and the passion to represent and do well for the lions. The lions squad won't (shouldn't be) as divided and distracted as the welsh set-up so I can't see Alun-Wyn getting massively contradicted all the tie. The key for me is having a set of people capable of leading and speaking up rather than just one. For England for example, he may not be the savviest player but Haskell leads as much as Hartley through his experience. We need a senior leadership team who are on the same page.

and looking at Dull's team above, there is some experience there...

1. Jack McGrath
2. Ken Owens (club captain)
3. Tadgh Furlong
4. Alun-Wyn Jones (Club captain)
5. Joe Launchbury (Club captain)
6. CJ Stander (Former club captain)
7. Justin Tipuric (some experience with ospreys)
8. Toby Faletau

9. Rhys Webb
10. Johnny Sexton (experience as captain for Leinster)
11. George North
12. Owen Farrell (Some experience as captain with saracens)
13. Jonathan Jospeh
14. Anthony Watson
15. Stuart hogg

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Warburton ---> Tips

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Warburton ---> Tips

Probably, but Tips is in good form and could offer something different...probably still favour Warbs but it's close.

 

[General Melchett]

No love for Hamish Watson at 7? If we look at the campaign as a whole and not just the last game, he came off the bench and gave Wales a torrid time at the breakdown. Turnovers galore. Admittedly he didn't get to shine at Twickers but did very well against Ireland and Wales. Certainly wouldn't feel aggrieved if Warbs or Tips got the nod as both playing great and would be good bets to deliver in the tests.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

No love for Hamish Watson at 7? If we look at the campaign as a whole and not just the last game, he came off the bench and gave Wales a torrid time at the breakdown. Turnovers galore. Admittedly he didn't get to shine at Twickers but did very well against Ireland and Wales.

he's done just about enough to edge onto the plane Imo, but he's far from certain and it's a tough one. On the one hand, from the selectors perspective, for example Haskell versus Watson, I think it's always going to be hard to justify picking the one who did less well in a head to head and who hasn't been around that long.

On the other hand the referee in Watson's worst game(England) constantly favoured the attacking side at the breakdown, and I'm not sure even Pocock would have got any meat off that particular bone.

I just used it as one example but I do actually think it might come down to Haskell or Watson and not both. And that's tough because they're almost opposite players. One is relatively new and inexperienced at international level, a small but powerful footballer, the other is a massive lump, more a general 'backorder' who's been around for a decade at international level, Englands most capped player just about, has gone through highs and lows and has incidentally played in New Zealand for highlander. The more I think about it the harder it is.

 

[General Melchett]

he's done just about enough to edge onto the plane Imo, but he's far from certain and it's a tough one. On the one hand, from the selectors perspective, for example Haskell versus Watson, I think it's always going to be hard to justify picking the one who did less well in a head to head and who hasn't been around that long.

On the other hand the referee in Watson's worst game(England) constantly favoured the attacking side at the breakdown, and I'm not sure even Pocock would have got any meat off that particular bone.

I just used it as one example but I do actually think it might come down to Haskell or Watson and not both. And that's tough because they're almost opposite players. One is relatively new and inexperienced at international level, a small but powerful footballer, the other is a massive lump, more a general 'backorder' who's been around for a decade at international level, Englands most capped player just about, has gone through highs and lows and has incidentally played in New Zealand for highlander. The more I think about it the harder it is.

Well argued. Another disadvantage Watson has is that he plays for Edinburgh and won't get to showcase his talents in the ECC unlike Haskell who'll get a chance to play against Leinster not to mention the Saracens, Glasgow & Munster lads. He only has Italy left in the 6N and I'm not sure if a good performance against them will carry too much weight in the selectors' eyes.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if the only Scots to make the plane are Hogg, J Gray and possibly Huw Jones as I think he's Gatland's kind of 13. The likes of Seymour and Russell are really going to have to impress when Glasgow visit Saracens if they are to have any chance.