The Ukraine War thread

[McTallshort]

Maybe so but he must have realised that once he went down that road, it was all or nothing.

Initially yes but since the mutiny he's had meetings with Putin, been seen in African conferences in Moscow and has generally been allowed to carry on as BAU. There is footage online of the jet trying to evade SAM systems and the plane just disappeared as apposed to descending for a crash.

 

[McTallshort]

Of course he did. He did everything but plant the bomb.

He choose the plane, the type of bomb, which colour fireworks to put inside, he recorded the **** you message to be played just before it went off.

SAM system took it down

 

[McTallshort]

 

[McTallshort]

 

[BrokenWing]

Muscovites react to crashed plane
We've been hearing from people in the Russian capital Moscow, who are reacting to the news of the plane crash and Wagner boss Prigozhin's possible death.
One man called Dmitry says it was to be "expected because of some of the things he did" and adds "they should be punished".

I mean, they don't for a second consider it's an accident

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I guess using SAM makes more sense if you want to have any chance of convincing even the most delusional of Wagner supporters and frontline troops that this was not intentional by Putin. They will know Russian air defences have already repeatedly shot down their own aircraft already. You would still have to be a idiot to believe it (especially given it was north of Moscow?), but there are a lot of idiots supporting the war who desperately try to make sense of things (e.g. the mutiny was a long con to get Wagner in Belarus so Prigozhin could go after Kyiv from the north).

A bit of a shame, I was hoping for a Russian faked video showing a drone with a swastika on it or something.

 

[The Seeker]

 

[The Seeker]

Prigozhin's final tweet. LOL

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Yevgeny Prigozhin: Was the Wagner chief a dead man walking?

Ever since he led a mutinous march on Moscow in late June, some speculated Yevgeny Prigozhin's days were numbered.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[General Melchett]

Even though it's looking like SAM it's probably a matter of time before the Russian Aviation Authority wheel out some wreckage of a Ukrainian drone.

The fact that Putin was dishing out medals at some military ceremony at the same time is textbook. Almost as good as being at a primary school when two planes fly into a couple of skyscrapers.

 

[SG59_]

I wonder if Putin has miscalculated here. Without the leader, the wagner group might turn on him again.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I think it's more the opposite. Plus Wagner group has now been absorbed into the Russian army.

 

[SG59_]

So the Russian army really is full of criminals now in every sense. He must be getting desperate.

 

[General Melchett]

I just read a transcript of the final conversation between Putin and Prigozhin:

Prigozhin: If you bump me off then just know that I've got men who can make things very hard for you.

Putin: Yevgeny please, there are ladies present

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Putin's silence on this is deafening though, and points more and more that he gave the order.

 

[Which Tyler]

I'm seeing claims, but not confirmations, that whilst everyone was distracted by Jeff Prigo, Ukrainian special forces launched an attack into Crimea itself. Looks like they may have taken out an S-400 missile battery, and a radar / electronic warfare system (Nebo-M, for anyone who knows what that means, but it's got some commentators rather excited).

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Putin saying the investigation will take time.
Wonder why?

After Prigozhin humiliated Putin, the question was how he survived so long

The Wagner leader appeared down but not out in the months after his mutiny, but his fate may have been sealed from the start

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

The Pentagon are indicating they don't think it was SAM (or that there is no evidence of that), with the Kremlin pushing the SAM line. It would make sense if there was any risk of a SAM missing a private jet. Perhaps a bomb would be surer (from my past of having to read about such things I think of Iranian barometric(?) bombs calibrated to go off at say, 30,000 feet).

Kind of a moot point. Its an assassination against all Wagner top brass in one go with just enough dubiety (and insincere regret from Putin, rather than completely overt gloating) to prevent any sort of armed rebellion by Wagner or their sympathisers in the front line. The Kremlin has avoided the possible risks of botching an assassination or leaving other senior Wagner guys alive.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Maybe it crashed as a result of sudden pressure change due to a window being opened?

 

[General Melchett]

There are reports that a crate of wine was loaded onto the plane at the last minute. There was also a second plane shadowing the one that crashed which returned to Moscow and then later flew to Baku which is interesting.

What I find strange is that Prigozhin and his deputy flew on the same plane. This goes against basic organisation continuity planning principles where the boss and deputy usually fly on separate planes. I realise we are talking about the Wagner group here but it's a basic principle of continuity planning. If there were two planes it would have been crazy for them not fly separately.