[Six Nations 2018] Round 3: Ireland vs Wales (24/02/2018)

[bushytop]

The Dan Biggar one really looks like it should either be a) an 80's pop star or b) an extra from Orange is the New Black

Interesting fact, Biggar has only lost 1 in 5 against Ireland.

 

[mosfeldt]

She-Biggar would get it

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Hoping Paddy Power open up a Wales to score no tries bet, I think Farrell will be determined to keep a clean sheet after the porous D in the opening two weeks.

 

[munstermuffin]

Hoping Paddy Power open up a Wales to score no tries bet, I think Farrell will be determined to keep a clean sheet after the porous D in the opening two weeks.

Wales +9 Is the bet to do.

 

[Groundhog]

Ireland:
15. Rob Kearney
14. Keith Earls
13. Chris Farrell
12. Bundee Aki
11. Jacob Stockdale
10. Johnny Sexton
9. Conor Murray

1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best (captain)
3. Andrew Porter
4. James Ryan
5. Devin Toner
6. Peter O'Mahony
7. Dan Leavy
8. CJ Stander

Replacements:

16. Sean Cronin
17. Jack McGrath
18. John Ryan
19. Quinn Roux
20. Jack Conan
21. Kieran Marmion
22. Joey Carbery
23. Fergus McFadden.

As reported, but thought I'd throw it in anyway.

 

[bushytop]

So I did a player vs player for England vs Wales and I gave the English an advantage of about 5 - 2 (Halfpenny being pulled late on took this to a 6 - 2 advantage). This time I've gone with combos rather than pvp.

In this weekends game I would give the front row to Wales, mainly because of Furlongs absence and also the second row, this time because of Henderson also being another omission. Both areas are extremely tight though and it was difficult to narrow down any supposed advantage. The back row competition is even tighter and I'd have to sit on the fence on this one. Shingles and Navidi have been outstanding thus far but POM and CJ are elite and it will be an interesting battle.

The Irish obviously get the nod in the half backs as I like Davies a lot and Biggar definitely has his merits but the men in green are upper echelon stuff and have been for a long old time. I would give the centre partnership to Wales with Parkes and Williams having been very good not just during this tournament but for the last 12 months, playing together a lot. Henshaws injury was another deciding factor. With the back three, again it's too difficult to call a decisive advantage. Halfpenny and Kearney are both great defensively, with HP offering the threat of points (that also works to deter opposition liberties at the breakdown) or Kearney's attacking impetus able to spark a team attack from anywhere. Williams and Earls are seasoned pros and 'test match animals', too tight to call. Evans and Stockdale both seem to be on a similar trajectory and again is too difficult to determine anything between the two.

So I have Wales up 3 - 1 of which a few injuries helped clear up the decision making but obviously it doesn't consider a couple of key facts. It's in Ireland (though that seems to mean little in this particular fixture) and the rankings of the sides. Ireland have got it done more often than the Welsh over the course of the last couple of years, so are a bit more proven.

I'd still have to give the Irish the advantage in Dublin, so 3 - 3 going in. Could be another great contest.

 

[Thingimubob]

Interesting fact, Biggar has only lost 1 in 5 against Ireland.

Did not know that! If I remember correctly his only loss would've been that 30 - 22 loss in Cardiff in 2013? He had a good game despite the result too I think.

Hoping Paddy Power open up a Wales to score no tries bet, I think Farrell will be determined to keep a clean sheet after the porous D in the opening two weeks.

Not the best bet in my eyes due to porous Irish defense in the first two round + a Welsh side that likes to attack, and hasn't gone two games in a row without scoring a try since the first two games of the 2007 6 Nations, which was a monumentally shite year for us... hopefully they chuck a "Wales to score a try" bet on...

 

[bushytop]

Did not know that! If I remember correctly his only loss would've been that 30 - 22 loss in Cardiff in 2013?

Dunno, the article I read didn't specify. Your probably right though, as I remember the 2013 championship was Biggars tournament in the shirt due to a Priestland injury.

 

[MikeTheNative]

Wales will keep kicking inplay straight to Kearney to run into the first defender. In normal play I expect a fast blitz to stop the creativity of Sexton. Ireland seem to not trust the centres to do any play making so getting up quickly to stop Sexton getting it wide to the outside channel will be important. I think Wales will target Earls with some cross field kicks, but obviously not much point aiming them at Stockdale. Missing Furlong and Henderson will hurt Ireland up front but I think they still have the edge in a tight forward battle, I expect Wales to try play with some pace in the forwards. Wales' back row is a bit more mobile than Ireland's

 

[Thingimubob]

Dunno, the article I read didn't specify. Your probably right though, as I remember the 2013 championship was Biggars tournament in the shirt due to a Priestland injury.

Yupp had a look at the highlights earlier - was the first year that Biggar properly cemented himself as the first choice 10 and had a quality 6N overall. Still reckon he was very unlucky not to go on the Lions tour that year, and if they'd decided to bring a third out and out 10, he'd have been next in line for me.

Wales will keep kicking inplay straight to Kearney to run into the first defender. In normal play I expect a fast blitz to stop the creativity of Sexton. Ireland seem to not trust the centres to do any play making so getting up quickly to stop Sexton getting it wide to the outside channel will be important. I think Wales will target Earls with some cross field kicks, but obviously not much point aiming them at Stockdale. Missing Furlong and Henderson will hurt Ireland up front but I think they still have the edge in a tight forward battle, I expect Wales to try play with some pace in the forwards. Wales' back row is a bit more mobile than Ireland's

Can definitely see this being a major tactic, and potentially quite a good one for this game. Been a couple of years since I've genuinely been impressed by Kearney's attacking form, though he's still very much a safe pair of hands at the back. Dunno how the Irish fans feel about him these days, but there are definitely plenty of other players I'd be more worried about us kicking constantly too. Ideally though our kicking won't be as aimless as it was against England...

 

[big ginger 8]

If you keep kicking at Kearney, there's pretty much no chance he's going to score some wonder try but at the same time, it's very unlikely to will win the ball back off him and you will lose the territorial game overall which suits us just fine.

 

[bushytop]

If you keep kicking at Kearney, there's pretty much no chance he's going to score some wonder try but at the same time, it's very unlikely to will win the ball back off him and you will lose the territorial game overall which suits us just fine.

Our in-field kicking game is pretty hit and miss. It worked against Scotland, and I'm pretty sure it's had some success against the Irish in recent matches between the two but I've seen it become a hindrance just as often. I do like our balance this year between clearing out of our own 22 and playing out. Far better than in recent years.

 

[Thingimubob]

If you keep kicking at Kearney, there's pretty much no chance he's going to score some wonder try but at the same time, it's very unlikely to will win the ball back off him and you will lose the territorial game overall which suits us just fine.

Yeah the success of that tactic will all come down to how good the chase is (something that was poor vs England), and if our backrowers can do their thing at the breakdown and nick the ball / draw penalties out of the Irish - admittedly one of the strengths of this Welsh side. Biggar coming back in will help with this considering how good he is at competing for his own up and unders.

If we kick aimlessly and give Kearney too much time he's more than solid enough to at the very least hold onto the ball and give Ireland possession and field position to work with, and also invites him to get the ball out to Earls / Stockdale who I do fear on the counter.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

We're going to win the territorial battle unless Wales go through multiple 20+ phase drives, we almost always win the territorial and possession battle whether we win or lose. Opposition kickers do not find grass against Kearney and Kearney does not get turned over, getting into a kicking battle against Murray, Sexton and Kearney is unwise to say the least, its not where Wales and Scotland beat us last year and the French game last year showed how effective it can be until we lost a lot with Zebo replacing Kearney.

 

[bushytop]

We're going to win the territorial battle unless Wales go through multiple 20+ phase drives, we almost always win the territorial and possession battle whether we win or lose. Opposition kickers do not find grass against Kearney and Kearney does not get turned over, getting into a kicking battle against Murray, Sexton and Kearney is unwise to say the least, its not where Wales and Scotland beat us last year and the French game showed how effective it can be until we lost a lot with Zebo replacing Kearney.

I would definitely like to see some phases as we are finally seeming aware of the right time to release the ball from the tight. Gotta kick sometimes though and the Irish are strong there. With Halfpenny and Biggar back though, it isn't a particular weakness for Wales either.

 

[snoopy snoopy dog dog]

Not as confident as I was a few days ago. Tadhg Furlong, Iain Henderson and Robbie Henshaw are huge losses. Looking for positives, it's a great opportunity to give game time to Andrew Porter, James Ryan and Chris Farrell which will help improve squad depth ahead of Japan 2019. Porter and Ryan will be key members of a full strength 23 by then and the more games against top opposition for them, the better. Farrell already has test starts against teams ranked 8 and 9 in the world in his two caps so while Wales is a step up, it won't phase him.

If another 15 and 10 can get a chunk of game time, Ireland will be in good stead in 18 months time.

My heart says Ireland by less than 7. My head says Wales by 3.

 

[munstermuffin]

The realistic view for Ireland is - Win and a Slam and Triple Crown is on. Loose and well it will be no trophy, probably 3rd and possibly viewed as a fail this year for all the hype. And back to drawing board.

Few scary stats are.
1. Obviously Biggars record.
2. Our defensive game isn't on fire and well massive test will be in this area.
3. Wales are the team we have conceded most pens and turnovers to since 2000.
4. They are statistically the best team to challenge our lineout since 2000.
5. The scrum will be big area too.

Alot of fine lines but then again that is the margin between being good or awful

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Biggars record of 2-1-1 excluding the RWC warm up isn't that scary. He's not exactly a good player when compared to his opposite number. There's a massive fear of Wales in this country and for good reason recently but I think its overridden by home advantage.

 

[Groundhog]

Probably be tight. Pretty disappointing we're missing three of our top players. Would have to say especially Henderson missing worries me, because for all of Ryan's talent, he's not on Hendy's level and that second row has a whole lot less grunt. I think Porter will be up for it and Farrell is well suited to this game as well.
I hope we have our backrow balance right because we've been screwed on that front before against the Welsh. Whatever about their smell, loping animal like gait, vacant uncomprehending gaze, weird accent, and the fact they use the terms 'Shepard' and 'Lady's Man' as synonyms, the Welsh do produce some very classy backrows that will always trouble us.

 

[bushytop]

Biggars record of 2-1-1 excluding the RWC warm up isn't that scary. He's not exactly a good player when compared to his opposite number. There's a massive fear of Wales in this country and for good reason recently but I think its overridden by home advantage.

Biggars record has probably garnered more attention due the consensus perception of him more than anything else; though it would be a good record for any NH 10 against ireland and Sexton.

If I was Ireland, I'd be a lot more worried about whether those three injuries will allow the axis of 9 & 10 to a) get much decent ball in the first place and b) will they have an adequate enough 3/4's to do anything with it if they do.

Going to Ireland is never easy (regardless of our record out there) but with the players they have lost this week and the players Wales have been able to recall; it is as good an opportunity as any to record a coveted away W.