[Six Nations 2018] Round 3: Ireland vs Wales (24/02/2018)

[munstermuffin]

Biggars record of 2-1-1 excluding the RWC warm up isn't that scary. He's not exactly a good player when compared to his opposite number. There's a massive fear of Wales in this country and for good reason recently but I think its overridden by home advantage.

True but the other factors are concerns. We have a front 5 also who arguably 3 don't have an engine for 80mins International rugby.
There is big step up from Italy and well a big worry has been we have tired massively in last 20 of games recently.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

True but the other factors are concerns. We have a front 5 also who arguably 3 don't have an engine for 80mins International rugby.
There is big step up from Italy and well a big worry has been we have tired massively in last 20 of games recently.

Have we? I remember a 40 phases drive on 80mins....

 

[bushytop]

There is big step up from Italy and well a big worry has been we have tired massively in last 20 of games recently.

Good point this as the welsh fitness has looked very good. The Scots arguably broke mentally after their fitness gave out and the English looked to struggle the longer the game went against us (6 day turn around noted).

 

[bushytop]

Have we? I remember a 40 phases drive on 80mins....

Fair but the Teddy Thomas try and sloppy penalty (which was missed) came in the final 10 minutes too...

 

[munstermuffin]

Have we? I remember a 40 phases drive on 80mins....

1 stage. Stats show vs Italy and France we declined massively. Even Schmidt and Murphy 2 coaches have mentioned it. Our tries conceded in those periods have showed similar. And out of those 40 phases how many front 5 players were in it.
The fact is only now Henderson is getting that engine for international game. Ryan hasn't got it yet neither has Furlong. A big part of Leavys error for try vs Italy was from tiredness as he said.

A 40 phase play at end of a scrappy game doesn't necessarily mean we have an engine yet. As I said those are fine margins. A win Saturday could mean a big boost going in to last 2 games with eyes on a Slam and a Triple Crown. A loss would be deemed a failure for this year' championship and a 3rd place finish possibly. And well if we haven't a top morale going to Twickenham on Paddys Day it could be a repeat of the last Paddys Day there

 

[munstermuffin]

Fair but the Teddy Thomas try and sloppy penalty (which was missed) came in the final 10 minutes too...

Exactly as Irish coaches have admitted.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Fair but the Teddy Thomas try and sloppy penalty (which was missed) came in the final 10 minutes too...

1 stage. Stats show vs Italy and France we declined massively. Even Schmidt and Murphy 2 coaches have mentioned it. Our tries conceded in those periods have showed similar. And out of those 40 phases how many front 5 players were in it.
The fact is only now Henderson is getting that engine for international game. Ryan hasn't got it yet neither has Furlong. A big part of Leavys error for try vs Italy was from tiredness as he said.

A 40 phase play at end of a scrappy game doesn't necessarily mean we have an engine yet. As I said those are fine margins. A win Saturday could mean a big boost going in to last 2 games with eyes on a Slam and a Triple Crown. A loss would be deemed a failure for this year' championship and a 3rd place finish possibly. And well if we haven't a top morale going to Twickenham on Paddys Day it could be a repeat of the last Paddys Day there

Tired "massively" though.

 

[big ginger 8]

True but the other factors are concerns. We have a front 5 also who arguably 3 don't have an engine for 80mins International rugby.
There is big step up from Italy and well a big worry has been we have tired massively in last 20 of games recently.

Well thank God we have more than 3 tight five subs.

How many tight five players regularly play 80 minutes?

Also the only one I can't remember doing 80 or close to it in recent times is Healy and that's more because it would be mad to allow a slight drop off from fatigue when you have McGrath on the bench.

 

[bushytop]

Tired "massively" though.

Maybe massively is overstating it but fine margins and all. It does seem like these fine margins are starting to stack though. Haven't felt this confident in Wales going to Dublin for a while.

Compounding the fact that there has been a drop off with the Irish during the final quarter, the Welsh bench looks the better to me, both in terms of personnel and the impact a 'finisher' needs to have. I feel only McGrath fits the bill for the Irish bench really. The replacement welsh front row have looked very good during the first two games, Bradley is a nasty final 20 player, nothing needs to be said about Tips. Anscombe and North cover everything nicely too.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Maybe massively is overstating it but fine margins and all. It does seem like these fine margins are starting to stack though. Haven't felt this confident in Wales going to Dublin for a while.

Compounding the fact that there has been a drop off with the Irish during the final quarter, the Welsh bench looks the better to me, both in terms of personnel and the impact a 'finisher' needs to have. I feel only McGrath fits the bill for the Irish bench really. The replacement welsh front row have looked very good during the first two games, Bradley is a nasty final 20 player, nothing needs to be said about Tips. Anscombe and North cover everything nicely too.

That's fair, my opinion of it would be that the huge problems that the international side with the world's biggest win streak are being overstated by a small corner of fans and the media who have it out for Schmidt and now it's gaining traction. Schmidt hasn't lost a home 6n match and I'll believe he's beatable in Dublin by anyone not wearing black when I see it. Tiredness is a new one though, the tries against Italy were down to inexperience last week and a tired team doesn't win a game after 40 phases with the clock red. A few players may have tired, apparently the data is there but I haven't seen it with an eye test!

 

[bushytop]

That's fair, my opinion of it would be that the huge problems that the international side with the world's biggest win streak are being overstated by a small corner of fans and the media who have it out for Schmidt and now it's gaining traction. Schmidt hasn't lost a home 6n match and I'll believe he's beatable in Dublin by anyone not wearing black when I see it. Tiredness is a new one though, the tries against Italy were down to inexperience last week and a tired team doesn't win a game after 40 phases with the clock red. A few players may have tired, apparently the data is there but I haven't seen it with an eye test!

Lol you sound like the calmest man in Ireland at the moment.

 

[big ginger 8]

Maybe massively is overstating it but fine margins and all. It does seem like these fine margins are starting to stack though. Haven't felt this confident in Wales going to Dublin for a while.

Compounding the fact that there has been a drop off with the Irish during the final quarter, the Welsh bench looks the better to me, both in terms of personnel and the impact a 'finisher' needs to have. I feel only McGrath fits the bill for the Irish bench really. The replacement welsh front row have looked very good during the first two games, Bradley is a nasty final 20 player, nothing needs to be said about Tips. Anscombe and North cover everything nicely too.

I'm pretty sure if you look up the definition of impact sub in the dictionary Cronin's picture is right there. Conan is not someone idI want to see coming on against me either.

It's certainly not our most impactful bench ever but I definitely don't see McGtatM as being the only one up to the required stamdard.

 

[bushytop]

I'm pretty sure if you look up the definition of impact sub in the dictionary Cronin's picture is right there. Conan is not someone idI want to see coming on against me either.

It's certainly not our most impactful bench ever but I definitely don't see McGtatM as being the only one up to the required stamdard.

I guess I just don't remember any of them doing much at this level. Assumed that most wouldn't be on bench if everyone was fit.

 

[munstermuffin]

Well thank God we have more than 3 tight five subs.

How many tight five players regularly play 80 minutes?

Also the only one I can't remember doing 80 or close to it in recent times is Healy and that's more because it would be mad to allow a slight drop off from fatigue when you have McGrath on the bench.

True but well it will be a big test now on THP position and lock on Saturday.
And those 2 positions may be pivotal. Especially at THP. This could be a magical day for Porter and Ryan as a combo but just as easily could be the reason we loose the game.
At lock Ryan or Toner will need to go massively for 80 and well Roux I don't have too much faith in.

But it will be a factor as stated tonight Welsh do pride themselves on fitness while we do tire but well again all on the day.

I used massively based on the stats maybe it is overstating but if you do check out our stats from 55-70mins in last year it not too pretty.

 

[Leinster Fan]

I feel only McGrath fits the bill for the Irish bench really.

Dunno about this to be honest. McGrath is obviously the best of them in that he's been one of the world's best looseheads in the last few years but Cronin is the ultimate impact sub and Conan is definitely an international standard player. I'll give you Quinn Roux though, who's barely good enough to play Pro14 let alone Champions Cup which is obviously still a big step down from international rugby.

Marmion has been our backup scrumhalf for most of the last few years although Luke McGrath (injured) or John Cooney would have the role if I was picking the team. Joey Carbery is possibly the most talented player in the squad and could create a bit of magic if we need a late score. McFadden won't change a game or score a 70m wonder try but at the same time he won't miss a tackle to concede said 70m wonder try either.

Overall it's definitely not the strongest bench we've had but I wouldn't agree that it's as weak as some are making out.

 

[bushytop]

Dunno about this to be honest. McGrath is obviously the best of them in that he's been one of the world's best looseheads in the last few years but Cronin is the ultimate impact sub and Conan is definitely an international standard player. I'll give you Quinn Roux though, who's barely good enough to play Pro14 let alone Champions Cup which is obviously still a big step down from international rugby.

Marmion has been our backup scrumhalf for most of the last few years although Luke McGrath (injured) or John Cooney would have the role if I was picking the team. Joey Carbery is possibly the most talented player in the squad and could create a bit of magic if we need a late score. McFadden won't change a game or score a 70m wonder try but at the same time he won't miss a tackle to concede said 70m wonder try either.

Overall it's definitely not the strongest bench we've had but I wouldn't agree that it's as weak as some are making out.

To be honest, my main point is that imo the Welsh have the better bench this weekend, which in turn could be pivotal considering some of the concerns around the Irish final 20.

While you make valid points, I am just really happy with the balance that the welsh bench has at the moment. Only Aled Davies is a player whom I feel detracts from the 1st XV, the rest add considerable value. Elliot Dee is a player who will own his Welsh shirt for a long long time, it just so happens it is filled by Ken Owen atm (who's not too shabby either) but this kid is coming to get his shirt fast. The whole front row have had a big impact when they come on of late with Wyn Jones in particular looking to be coming along real nicely. Tipuric is world class and Davies is more than a handy substitute lock. Never been Anscombe's biggest fan but he looked particularly sharp against England and covers fly half, wing and full back while George North (who is still only 25) seems to be getting back to form and fitness.

So while I may have been a little flippant in my appraisal of the Irish bench it is just much more to do with how I feel they compare. It is a sight for sore eyes too, as our bench used to be a real weak point for us.

 

[Thingimubob]

Actually didn't realise Carbery was on the bench.

I'm a huge fan of that kid and reckon big things lie ahead for him. After watching his ridiculously good performance at fullback vs Wasps last season, definitely worried about the potential threat he poses off the bench!

 

[munstermuffin]

Wonder was the Sexton issue mind games too.
Went down with his back and hamstring. He will play and Best has played it down but if he doesn't go long we will be in trouble for sure

 

[bushytop]

Wonder was the Sexton issue mind games too.
Went down with his back and hamstring. He will play and Best has played it down but if he doesn't go long we will be in trouble for sure

I doubt that this was mind games... it's not as if this would cause Gats to target Sexton anymore than he would have originally done. It sounds like it is a recurrence of a previous issue and sometimes those can be 'managed' for important matches.

We will know a lot more after his first big contact, either in attack or defence.

 

[bushytop]

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