Rugby Championship: Australia - New Zealand (18/08/2012)

[Larksea]

like the side, I think I would have started hore but it's 50/50 either way. you'd basically start the one that looked best in training.

Landmark test match for Liam Messam, New Zealands form #6 is obviously seen as the #1 blindside right now and he gets something he has not really had - a role in a genuine first choice forward pack in combination with McCaw and Read. I hope he's up for it physically. After playing a major part in the Chiefs finals effort and a week off celebrating I thought for the first test at least he would be rested.

Also kinda hints at the coaches plans, they have the perfect chance to rest him but they have not. They are playing their best side and will likely stick by those selections for the most part, maybe change selections depending on the oposition and tactics. I say that though there may be a hint of rest with Retalick dropping to the bench.

May also be protecting Retalick a bit, if Whitelock or ret get injured it leaves the locking stocks pretty thin. Romano is a little more expendable.

Also a MASSIVE chance for gear. Maybe for him more than anyone else.

 

[Big Ewis]

funny how SO MANY ppl got the AB's this time around.
What, is it the Wallabies loss to Scotland still echoing today ?!
I mean I'm just about 60-40% AB's...

Can't wait for Pocock VS McCock. The two greatest cocks in the world at their position.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I don't think it's all that funny/strange. Both history and recent results would suggest that the Abs are indeed favorites and most people see it that way. I doubt very few people aren't giving the Wallabies a chance though no matter how slight.

 

[SelimNiai]

Due to a self imposed exile from watching rugby, this will be my first game since the SA v England 3rd test. Looking forward to it

 

[Darwin]

Right, not too far away now. I'm starting to get a bit excited!

I picking the AB's to win by 10-15 points, though given neither team has played for a few weeks they both will probably be a bit rusty.

The AB's look to have an edge up front (as usual) - Robinson, Polota-Nau, and Kepu certainly aren't the worst front row Australia has put out, but I don't think they are as good as Woodcock, Mealamu, and Franks. Again I think we have an edge at lock. Sharpe is a quality player, but I'm still unconvinced with Timani. He looks great in open spaces with ball in hand (when he managed to catch the ball), but I don't know how you can afford to take a lock who isn't really a lineout option (he only took 8 lineouts for the Waratahs all season)! I'm looking forward to seeing how Romano goes, as he has really impressed over the later half of the Crusaders season.

I actually think the Wallabies have the best balanced loose trio they have had in quite a while, and a lot of this is down to Dave Dennis. Dennis is certainly not the most explosive player, but I think he is exactly what the Wallabies need at 6. He is not afraid to get stuck into the tight work, and when the tight-five is one of your teams weaker areas it certainly doesn't hurt to have your 6 helping them out! Pocock is quality, and though I'm not a big fan of Higginbotham (his work-rate doesn't really impress me) he could be well suited to the 8 jersey. Messam gets his big chance for NZ as part of NZ's top trio, and hopefully he performs like he has for the Chiefs all season (read: outstandingly).

Genia vs Smith is a great battle at halfback. Genia to me is still far and away the best 9 in the world, though Smith does have a lot of potential at this level. Smith's biggest area he needs to work on is consistency - the week after an outstanding debut test series vs Ireland he had a shocker for the Highlanders vs the Chiefs (though some credit for that must for to Kerr-Barlow). Carter vs Barnes isn't really a contest, though it will be interesting to see whether Barnes can continue the strong form he showed in the Welsh series (or if he reverts to his Waratahs form). The AB's have a massive advantage in the midfield. I think Faingaa and Horne will struggle to contain SBW and Nonu, and I don't think the Australian pairing will offer much of the threat on attack either.

Outwide I think Australia may actually have a slight advantage. Ioane is the best attacking wing in the world in my opinion, and though when on form I would rate Jane as one of the best wings in the world, the fact he has only just come back from injury means I would go for Ioane in this matchup. The match-up on the other wing is very interesting. Wing is not Ashley-Cooper's best position, but he always seems to perform against the All Blacks, so Gear will have to keep a close eye on him. This is really Gear's big chance to cement his spot in the AB's (at least for the Rugby Championship), so he will need to show the same aggression he did in the third Irish test. In my opinion Dagg and Beale are the too best fullback in the world when fit and on form, but I'm not convinced Beale is fit or Dagg is on form. Beale hasn't really been at his best for quite some time now, which I think is due to a hamstring injury, while Dagg has really struggled to recapture the form he displayed for the All Blacks last season. Dagg certainly needs a big match, as he has a certain Ben Smith breathing down his neck

 

[donmcdazzle]

If Cruden doesn't get any game time with Aaron smith I'm flying over to Sydney to headbutt Hansen. He is so much better outside smith, see the 3rd Irish test as recent evidence.

 

[TNT88]

Come on Wallabies. 10 years is too long!

 

[dudeabides]

Is this awesome tourney and this test especially ever going to get here? 3:30 in the morning but I'm trying to hold out!

 

[Darwin]

Just over an hour to go now. Time for a beer.

 

[welshglory]

The Five Key contests
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/7503618/The-five-key-contests-in-first-Bledisloe-test

Will Genia v Aaron Smith
We know Genia has attacking artistry running through his veins, but his role tonight must slightly change because the threat has changed. If the nippy Smith gets clean ball and starts firing his superb wide passes - off either hand - to his big midfield runners, it is going to be a very long night for Australia. But the little No 9 from Manawatu is a Bledisloe virgin. Genia has to shut him down early around the fringes and climb all over him at scrum time - ****ling him and throwing a few choice phrases his way. The Wallabies need their general to produce a performance of exceptional maturity tonight, again coaxing the best out of Berrick Barnes at No 10. It is well within him.
Anthony Faingaa v Sonny Bill Williams
Whichever defensive system the Wallabies use, Faingaa will lead it. Valued at the Reds for his communication skills, the suspicion is he will be asked to come up fast and hard at Williams to cut off his options on the outside. It works well in theory, but Williams has been known to operate outside that realm. Former All Blacks assistant coach Wayne Smith said this week that Williams not only reads the game, but he reads it like a No 10. In the Reds v Chiefs game in May, Williams scored one try, ran for 85 metres and made two line breaks, however Faingaa - playing at outside-centre - was not in direct opposition.
Benn Robinson v Owen Franks
Both enter this game with question marks over them. Adam Jones caused Robinson more than a few issues during the Wales series and the front-row rotational policy at the Crusaders has not brought the best out of Franks. Robinson possibly edged the Super Rugby battle between the Waratahs and the Crusaders, but this is a different game altogether. Franks is a brute, and is probably miffed by the suggestion he has lost a bit of form. Robinson has previously scaled great heights, but is seeking to recapture them. More skilful teammates will capture the headlines, but few will have more influence.
David Pocock v Richie McCaw
This is a test of captaincy more than anything, because the No 7s are consistently excellent in their play. Pocock will steal more ball, but McCaw will run to better effect and be more destructive in his tackling. But that is just part of their roles. Both will approach the referee, Alain Rolland, and praise his wisdom when a ruling goes their way, and offer quizzical looks when it goes against them. Judging the mood of the referee and imparting it to their teammates is a fine art that McCaw has mastered and Pocock is learning. Pocock has been rattled by officials at times this year in a Force jersey. He cannot let an occasional injustice distract him.

Scott Higginbotham v Kieran Read
Get these two to swap jerseys and the recent Bledisloe Cup record would be a lot closer than it has been. Higginbotham has similar physical tools to Read but inhabits fewer nightmares. His role at the Reds is wide, but he will have to forget that love of open spaces tonight and get his hands dirty - his back-row partner Dave Dennis will need time to adjust to the intensity of the encounter. Read, though tender in the ribs, is moving towards the peak of his powers. The big Crusader is rarely spotted without a smile across his face, but plays as if constantly irritated - running hard and hammering into tackles. Throw in his lineout savvy and the package is complete. Great teams need great No 8s - a Kefu, a Dallaglio, or a Read.

 

[TNT88]

Anthony Faingaa v Sonny Bill Williams

Ummm. Faingaa hands down... Duh

 

[welshglory]

In all seriousness i have a feeling he could shut SBW down.

 

[TNT88]

He is literally a flanker playing in the backline. He will not only stop SBW in his tracks, he'll strip the ball every time, offload to Samo and we profit$$$$$$

 

[big ginger 8]

Don't think you can say McCaw will run to more effect than Pocock. McCaw has improved his running game but Pocock is a beast with ball in hand.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Got a feeling that SBW will have Faingaa's number.

 

[welshglory]

I'd say that McCaw's running game is more influential than Pocock's, he runs better angles and gets it through the hands quicker while Pocock is a great runner especially in the tight.

 

[Darwin]

In all seriousness i have a feeling he could shut SBW down.

I don't. If McCabe was at 12 I think he could have shut down SBW, but I don't think Faingaa can. Faingaa is a good defensive player, but he does slip off the odd tackle, and he hasn't played a lot at 12 over the last couple of seasons....

Don't think you can say McCaw will run to more effect than Pocock. McCaw has improved his running game but Pocock is a beast with ball in hand.

I think Pocock started to show his running game a lot more for the Force this season, but at international level I think McCaw has shown far more of a running game than Pocock. If you look at the stats for the Irish/Welsh series at the start of the season (stats courtesy of scrum.com) we see that:

McCaw made 37 runs for a total of 94 metres (with 3 broken tackles).
Pocock made 27 runs for a total of 41 metres (with 1 broken tackle).

Though I think Pocock is a good ball runner for an openside flanker, McCaw is still better in this department. The breakdown is another story altogether though!

 

[big ginger 8]

I don't. If McCabe was at 12 I think he could have shut down SBW, but I don't think Faingaa can. Faingaa is a good defensive player, but he does slip off the odd tackle, and he hasn't played a lot at 12 over the last couple of seasons....



I think Pocock started to show his running game a lot more for the Force this season, but at international level I think McCaw has shown far more of a running game than Pocock. If you look at the stats for the Irish/Welsh series at the start of the season (stats courtesy of scrum.com) we see that:

McCaw made 37 runs for a total of 94 metres (with 3 broken tackles).
Pocock made 27 runs for a total of 41 metres (with 1 broken tackle).

Though I think Pocock is a good ball runner for an openside flanker, McCaw is still better in this department. The breakdown is another story altogether though!

But you'll also find that McCaw played a half at six and a full game at 8. Also in two of the tests he was part of a team dominating Ireland while Pocock was playing in very close tests. Finally Wales have a very good defence and ours has gone very bad since Les Kiss stated double jobbing on attack and defence. I guess it's more a matter of opinion especially as it can depends what you consider makes a good ball carrier.

 

[Darwin]

But you'll also find that McCaw played a half at six and a full game at 8. Also in two of the tests he was part of a team dominating Ireland while Pocock was playing in very close tests. Finally Wales have a very good defence and ours has gone very bad since Les Kiss stated double jobbing on attack and defence. I guess it's more a matter of opinion especially as it can depends what you consider makes a good ball carrier.

McCaw does a lot of running regardless of where he is playing - in contrast up until the the Welsh series Pocock hadn't been used much as a ball carrier at international level. It will be interesting to see how much running Pocock does in this match.

Anyways, the match is just about to kick off!

EDIT: SBW has already knocked Faingaa on his arse!

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Polota-Nau has some serious sideburns!