Rugby Championship: Australia - New Zealand (18/08/2012)

[Darwin]

http://www.haka.co.nz/haka-column.php?story_id=793&locations=ab_general

i generally use these starts if they have them, pretty reliable

I think they prove my point, Messams stats kinda showed he had a quiet but accurate game by his standards.
This list shows Thomson missed 2 tackles and Messam missed 0
Thomson carried more meters and was important in the lineout and made a LOT of tackles like he always does. BUT GAVE AWAY 4 penalties and won 0 turnovers to show for it. And what the stats don't show is that three of the penalties he gave away were kicked for points and the 4th penalty he gave away was a needless attacking penalty in perfect attacking position mid field inside the springbok 22. They were very silly penalties

That game from an all black perspective the main reasons it was lost were from Thomson's penalties and the inability of the team to capitalize on the blistering line breaks Dagg Made. He made some amazing runs but instead of securing possession of making sure he linked he over committed went to ground and turned the ball over basically every time.

As I stated, the stats do vary among sites. I would suggest the Verusco stats are far more accurate than the haka.co.nz ones though. Verusco are a professional company who collect their stats using detailed video analysis, and provide sports stats to a number of club and international teams. The haka stats are from a single person sitting and watching the game - I know which stats I would trust! (both rugbystats.com.au and the foxsports.com.au stats paint the same picture as the Verusco stats with regard to tackles made/metres gained).

Anyways, onto the Aussie team named:

A largely predictable side - they only slight surprise in the starting lineup for me is Timani over Simmons. Australia have stuck with a 5/2 split on the bench again, meaning there is no place for Quade Cooper. Slightly surprised to see Slipper ahead of Alexander on the bench, and am somewhat confused as to what Samo has done to deserve being on the bench, given he was on occasions left out of the Reds 22 this season!

 

[Larksea]

still don't see a reason to drop Messam from that game, if they were seriously considering doing a straight swap for Vito then they should have started Vito at 6 and Messam at 8 got a good look at both. Instead they took Messam off after 69min Vito got 11min and basically did nothing. the main point I wanted to make was that from that game if the selectors could take anything from it it was that Thomson has the ability to cost the All Blacks test matches with his discipline.

It was such a makeshift side anyway, if a side like that had 3-4 games in a row it could take on any other team but it was just thrown together. And highlights the other thing about Messam's carrier - that all the major chances he's got have been as part of makeshift sides. I think that last test showed that he actually would have a really good combination with McCaw, but we've basically never seen him combine with McCaw and Read.

Again as I said I'm sure there are arguments on a few minor details of my overall explanation. But I'm sure you get the big picture and mist of the other points I've made. I'm actually pretty sure in the not too distant future I will get a chance to pop a question on this subject to Ted directly. That would be interesting.

I also don't understand the selection of Samo, maybe shows a lack of options or that they are worried about a lack of size with Palu missing. He did have a pretty poor season apart from some good showings towards the end.

 

[donmcdazzle]

If we can't beat that Aussie side then we have major worries.

 

[Larksea]

yeah, take o'connor, cooper and Beale out of an Aussie team and it kinda takes the contest away to some extent, Aussie are a threat to the AB's but they really need to be full strength. Really means all the All Blacks mainly need to focus on is Will Genia and have a plan to reduce the impact of David Pocock - which they have implemented successfully in the past.

But Deans is a smart coach and this is Hansens first real test, Deans will surely have something to build a gameplan on.

One area I think the wallabies need to put huge pressure on to threaten the All Blacks is the lineout, it's not rocket science heck the one year the All Blacks have actually been sub par in the tri nations was 2009 and that was mostly because of a poor lineout, a poor lineout that Hansen was responsible for. No Thorn, No Ali Williams, No Boric only one experienced lock in the All Blacks squad. The writing is on the wall.

Wallabies will deploy a kicking game for field position and attack the All Blacks at the lineout, that's what I'm picking

 

[Darwin]

yeah, take o'connor, cooper and Beale out of an Aussie team and it kinda takes the contest away to some extent, Aussie are a threat to the AB's but they really need to be full strength. Really means all the All Blacks mainly need to focus on is Will Genia and have a plan to reduce the impact of David Pocock - which they have implemented successfully in the past.

But Deans is a smart coach and this is Hansens first real test, Deans will surely have something to build a gameplan on.

One area I think the wallabies need to put huge pressure on to threaten the All Blacks is the lineout, it's not rocket science heck the one year the All Blacks have actually been sub par in the tri nations was 2009 and that was mostly because of a poor lineout, a poor lineout that Hansen was responsible for. No Thorn, No Ali Williams, No Boric only one experienced lock in the All Blacks squad. The writing is on the wall.

Wallabies will deploy a kicking game for field position and attack the All Blacks at the lineout, that's what I'm picking

I'm actually not too worried about our lineout. It used to be a major area of concern, but over recent years we have turned into a real area of strength. It is something that they have really focused on in recent seasons, and one of the keys has been using our loosies as jumpers. At times in the past we only seemed to use out locks to jump - unless you both your locks are phenomenal lineout jumpers you will be in trouble if you use this tactic, as the opposition can easily identify and target where the ball will be thrown. This is exactly what happened in 2009 against the Boks - we only won 20/29 (69%)* of our lineouts across the three matches, with Matfield dominating Thorn and Ross (we only won 4 lineouts with our loose forwards). Once we realized we needed to use our loosies to make our lineout far less predictable, our lineout improved immensely. Now rather than having just 2 lineout targets we have 5 in most tests, with Read, McCaw, and Vito/Messam/Thomson all genuine lineout options.

I think Australia will be far more concerned about securing there own lineout ball than targeting the AB's lineout. They only have three lineout jumpers, and Polota-Nau can struggle a bit throwing the ball in straight. Sharpe, Dennis, and Higginbotham are all good jumpers, but Timani and Pocock aren't generally used as jumpers at lineout time. It wouldn't surprise me if New Zealand actually put a lot of pressure on Australia's lineout, and even steal the odd lineout or 2....

*Stats courtesy of Scrum.com

 

[donmcdazzle]

This is exactly what happened in 2009 against the Boks - we only won 20/29 (69%)* of our lineouts across the three matches, with Matfield dominating Thorn and Ross (we only won 4 lineouts with our loose forwards).

Isaac Ross, how has he escaped ridicule for being one of the worst AB's ever. God he was rubbish.

 

[Icemn]

http://www.foxsports.com.au/rugby/t.../story-e6frf4qc-1226449748285?from=public_rss

what about playing SBW on centre and nonu on 2nd 5 :?

 

[InsaneAsylum]

Hahaha Isaac Ross.... Currently hiding behind Jason eaton

 

[ZeFrenchy]

It's not their fault that there wasn't anyone better at the time. Or, if there was, that the coach got it wrong. They deserve respect anyway.

 

[madflyhalf]

The expected Aussie team.
It's better to have Moore on the bench as Deans is starting to use the bench wisely, the inclusion of Timani left me a bit bewildered though I think they wanted to fix the axis behind the tighthead prop (3-4-8) with a good scrummaging lock, I thought that it should be Douglas...

The omission of Cooper were predictable but I don't know if it's the correct choice: he can add some imprevedibility and sparkling in attack!
5-2 split with 2 backrowers (maybe Samo regained fitness as it seemed in the latter stages of SR season) allows only a spot for a back: surely with 2 pure centres in the midfield, they needed an outside back, so no room for Cooper.
But what if they're gonna need a right wing (AAC shifting at 13)? Who can play there? Mitchell is left-footed, Ioane is right-footed but he steps way better on his left leg and I can't recall the last time he played on the other side.

Choices are limited by injuries, not a bad selection, but I can't see them beating the All Blacks, neither on home soil.

Very happy to see Drew Mitchell back in the mix!

 

[Draggs]

That is a very injury-prone Aussie backline.
Two back replacements might be risky.

 

[Dizzy]

I wish. I did give him a big man hug once though (which he loved).

Rest assured, I loved it too. It was a special moment for all involved.

I would hug ben smith given half the chance.

I'm interested on what

Fruitcakes!

 

[admartian]

Isaac Ross, how has he escaped ridicule for being one of the worst AB's ever. God he was rubbish.

He was alright I thought. Good in the loose; pretty quick for a lock, and handy in the lineouts but not the tight stuff.

If they'd actually spent the resources developing him (instead of basically just telling him to F off) as they do/did with guys like Whitelock or SBW, then who knows.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

He was alright I thought. Good in the loose; pretty quick for a lock, and handy in the lineouts but not the tight stuff.

If they'd actually spent the resources developing him (instead of basically just telling him to F off) as they do/did with guys like Whitelock or SBW, then who knows.

I agree, i thought he was ok and deserved his spot at the time, the difference is he was sent away with a list of things to work on...and he didn't or couldn't. others are invested in and others still are given the list of improvements to work on them selves and succeed

 

[Keithmurdoch]

The expected Aussie team.
It's better to have Moore on the bench as Deans is starting to use the bench wisely, the inclusion of Timani left me a bit bewildered though I think they wanted to fix the axis behind the tighthead prop (3-4-8) with a good scrummaging lock, I thought that it should be Douglas...

The omission of Cooper were predictable but I don't know if it's the correct choice: he can add some imprevedibility and sparkling in attack!
5-2 split with 2 backrowers (maybe Samo regained fitness as it seemed in the latter stages of SR season) allows only a spot for a back: surely with 2 pure centres in the midfield, they needed an outside back, so no room for Cooper.
But what if they're gonna need a right wing (AAC shifting at 13)? Who can play there? Mitchell is left-footed, Ioane is right-footed but he steps way better on his left leg and I can't recall the last time he played on the other side.

Choices are limited by injuries, not a bad selection, but I can't see them beating the All Blacks, neither on home soil.

Very happy to see Drew Mitchell back in the mix!

The only reason I can imagine for them playing Samo on the wing at the WC was to convince themselves that this eventuality was covered, even with only 2 back reserves. I can only imagine what Hosea Gear would do if this ever came up though!!

 

[donmcdazzle]

He was alright I thought. Good in the loose; pretty quick for a lock, and handy in the lineouts but not the tight stuff.

If they'd actually spent the resources developing him (instead of basically just telling him to F off) as they do/did with guys like Whitelock or SBW, then who knows.

By picking him in the AB's I'm fairly sure that means they spent time and resources trying to develop him. He was a guy too tall to play centre basically who never ever did any work.

 

[Darwin]

Fruitcakes!

You are just jealous Dizzy

The expected Aussie team.
It's better to have Moore on the bench as Deans is starting to use the bench wisely, the inclusion of Timani left me a bit bewildered though I think they wanted to fix the axis behind the tighthead prop (3-4-8) with a good scrummaging lock, I thought that it should be Douglas...

Yeah, I was thinking that would be the only possible reason for Timani's inclusion. I still don't think it is a wise decision though, as I have never been impressed with Timani's workrate, his ball handling is very poor at times, and he can't even jump in the lineout!

The omission of Cooper were predictable but I don't know if it's the correct choice: he can add some imprevedibility and sparkling in attack!
5-2 split with 2 backrowers (maybe Samo regained fitness as it seemed in the latter stages of SR season) allows only a spot for a back: surely with 2 pure centres in the midfield, they needed an outside back, so no room for Cooper.
But what if they're gonna need a right wing (AAC shifting at 13)? Who can play there? Mitchell is left-footed, Ioane is right-footed but he steps way better on his left leg and I can't recall the last time he played on the other side.

Choices are limited by injuries, not a bad selection, but I can't see them beating the All Blacks, neither on home soil.

Very happy to see Drew Mitchell back in the mix!

I'm not convinced with Mitchell's inclusion. There is no doubt that he is a world class wing when on form, but I feel he may have been rushed back too quickly again. He has had quite a few injury problems over the last few seasons, and always seems to be rushed back quickly, then gets himself injured again. I can't remember him showing any great form in his few matches for the Waratahs at the end of the season - I feel may have been better making sure he was 100% fit and playing at his best before including him in the Wallabies (perhaps he is?). Like others, I would have liked to see Dom Shipperly, as I thought he had a very good season for the Reds....

By picking him in the AB's I'm fairly sure that means they spent time and resources trying to develop him. He was a guy too tall to play centre basically who never ever did any work.

I'm certainly with you on this don - I didn't think Ross should have been selected to start with, and I think the AB's selectors were more than justified in dropping him. As Jabby mentioned, the selectors gave him a list of 'work-ons', which he simply ignored. He was well within his rights to do that, and likewise the AB's selectors were well within their rights not to select him again! Ross's biggest issue was not physical, but mental. Yes, he had a rather slim build, but others far smaller than him have succeed as AB's locks (see Norm Maxwell / Ian Jones). As don points out, he spent most of his time standing in the midfield waiting for the ball, rather than performing the core roles of a tight-forward. He certainly was one of the most naturally skillful locks I've ever seen - it is just a pity he thought he was a centre.

 

[admartian]

By picking him in the AB's I'm fairly sure that means they spent time and resources trying to develop him. He was a guy too tall to play centre basically who never ever did any work.

I agree, i thought he was ok and deserved his spot at the time, the difference is he was sent away with a list of things to work on...and he didn't or couldn't. others are invested in and others still are given the list of improvements to work on them selves and succeed

Yes both correct.

My point simply was; they've spent more time on guys that don't necessarily have the same desire to be here and may have been given 2nd/3rd chances (Weepu, Cowan, McAlister at some point, SBW, Guildford etc etc) - and it was sad that he wasn't given the same opportunity as I thought he had the potential.

But no biggie now obviously.

 

[Larksea]

if you want to talk about a lock left out in the cold forget about Ross how about Tom Donnelly?

He came into the squad in place of Ross and basically fixed all the All Blacks problems and looked a really good combination with Brad Thorn.

Not often a guy steps up and does the business like that, looked very much at home in test rugby. Maybe has not been given the chances he deserves at both super and test level.

 

[admartian]

if you want to talk about a lock left out in the cold forget about Ross how about Tom Donnelly?

He came into the squad in place of Ross and basically fixed all the All Blacks problems and looked a really good combination with Brad Thorn.

Not often a guy steps up and does the business like that, looked very much at home in test rugby. Maybe has not been given the chances he deserves at both super and test level.

Yes, that's right!

Donnelly was solid with Thorn. Sometimes I hate how players fall in and out favour just at the snap of a finger.