All Black new cap contenders

[MotherRucker1]

Yep, and I don't have any issues with those points. Other than Dagg standing out 3 out of 10 times - I think that's a little extreme. Not many people are on Ben Smith's level, let alone Dagg. But what Dagg can do is start finding form again, slowly but surely which I think he has done. Nowhere near his best, but there have been encouraging signs in parts. The challenge is staying injury free so he can demonstrate consistency.

 

[austingtir]

I agree with you Larksea. IF Savea was to go down it would of been very nice indeed to of had Osbourne with a few test matches to his name to fill in. To me he would fill that 11 spot perfectly.

And I agree I wouldnt be as confident in Naholo initially as I dont think the 14 winger can be hidden from high balls and such as easy as the 11.
But it would of been nice to have both of them with a few test matches ready to go in if Jane or Savea went down but Hansen is far more likely to get Ben Smith to fill in I guess which is probably the best option even though im over Dagg.

I was going to mention BS going down... but nah I dont even want to think about it really. The sky would start falling most likely.

 

[MotherRucker1]

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[jessta]

piutau, SBW, Fekitoa, Crotty, Slade could all do a handy job on wing in case of sir smith going down.

Speaking of Crotty/ fekitoa. 4 center spots. Nonu, conrad and SBW guaranteed. Who takes that 4th spot. The dynamic fekitoa or the classy Crotty?

 

[nickdnz]

Crotty on the wing...obviously he's known for his out and out gas....

Not a fan of anyone of those options barring Piatau as a winger tbh. Fekitoa maybe. Being able to cover some of the defensive positioning of the wing, and being at all effective are two very different things.

My personal choice if Savea went down would be Hosea Gear despite his lack of game time this season. They are basically a like-for-like replacement. Lowe or Osbourne could do a job there.

 

[Icemn]

Crotty on the wing...obviously he's known for his out and out gas....

Not a fan of anyone of those options barring Piatau as a winger tbh. Fekitoa maybe. Being able to cover some of the defensive positioning of the wing, and being at all effective are two very different things.

My personal choice if Savea went down would be Hosea Gear despite his lack of game time this season. They are basically a like-for-like replacement. Lowe or Osbourne could do a job there.

Louw would be my obvious choice! Gear what a shame!

why not jane on 11 BS on 14 and dagg on 15 then... if Savea where to get injured? SBW has played 11 in the RWC aswell... where is Kahui?

 

[jessta]

Pretty sure Crotty was playing wing when he scored that match winning try against Ireland

 

[Larksea]

I really like Osborne as an Option for this year.

Uncapped but has trained with the All Blacks and been in wider training squads.

He's 27 now which is probably too old to consider him an option to play through to the next world cup but that matters little right now. He's built his game well and in the form of his life performing week in week out with a high work rate, low error rate, ability to both finish and create. Plus he has an established combination with Ben Smith.

I think he tips James Lowe, though at just 22 Lowe is a future option.

I think Fekitoa has to be selected. This is a world cup and he is a defensive juggernaut, he makes big tackles and wins turnovers. Sure he's a strong ball runner but man... that defense....

But the reality is with world cup squads people that deserve to be there get left behind, Aaron Crudens injury makes one really hard decision easier, because not all of Carter, Barrett, Cruden and slade could be selected. There will only be ~31? places.

Just for thrills:

Potential 2015 fringe All Black 15?

1, Joe Moody - Reg Goodes?
2, Hika Elliot
3, Ben Franks - Ben Tamiafuna?
4, Blade Thompson
5, James Broadhurst
6, Stephen Luatua, Victor Vito, Brad Shields, AKIRA IOANE????
7, Matt Todd
8, Stephen Luatua, Victor Vito, Brad Shields, IMO shields is getting on a level and maybe even surpassing these guys.
9, Brad Weber
10, Lima Sapoanga
11, James Lowe
12, George Moala
13, Fekitoa
14, Patrick Osborne
15, Sudder? Tom Marshall?

 

[Kiwiwomble]

question, why not dagg at on the wing and smith at fullback...why does smith always move, i actually think some of daggs best games in the black jersey were on the wing when mils was at fullback. also takes a little pressure of as the wing generally distributes back in field for the counter.

obviously a wing replacement first, i just find it funny everyone seems to think dagg can only play fullback and everyone needs to move if you want him on the field

 

[austingtir]

I would be considering dropping Luatua for a younger (**** they are all young) player again for the initial squad this year either one of Ioane, Shields, A Savea or Taufua.

Thats not to say I wouldnt bring Luatua back later on. For me it depends on who is THE form player out of that bunch. A Savea is probably the odd one out not being a blindside or 8 and I actually have always preferred Todd for a injury cover 7 simply the way he handled himself for an outgunned Canterbury last year against England I thought was outstanding.

Obviously when the WC squad is named none of them will likely play a part barring injury.


EDIT: Ardie is still only 21? He needs another year or two behind some experienced guys. This guy is still probably the long term solution 7 for the AB's though just needs more time.

 

[nickdnz]

I really like Osborne as an Option for this year.

Uncapped but has trained with the All Blacks and been in wider training squads.

He's 27 now which is probably too old to consider him an option to play through to the next world cup but that matters little right now. He's built his game well and in the form of his life performing week in week out with a high work rate, low error rate, ability to both finish and create. Plus he has an established combination with Ben Smith.

I think he tips James Lowe, though at just 22 Lowe is a future option.

I think Fekitoa has to be selected. This is a world cup and he is a defensive juggernaut, he makes big tackles and wins turnovers. Sure he's a strong ball runner but man... that defense....

Fekitoa makes some good hits, but his tackling percentage has actually been pretty disappointing at only 76.3% (compared to Ryan Crotty's 79%, Conrad Smith's 86.5%, George Moala's 89.7% or Charlie Ngatai's 95.3%). Based on these stats he's actually been one of the least accurate defenders (although I wouldn't say it's been a huge weakness either).

I certainly think you're going a bit far saying Osbourne is performing "week in week out with a high work rate, low error rate,". He's a very strong ball runner and I'm much more in favor of putting a guy like him on the wing than a much more conservative options, but he's hardly a bastion of accuracy.

 

[Jack Reacher]

Fekitoa makes some good hits, but his tackling percentage has actually been pretty disappointing at only 76.3% (compared to Ryan Crotty's 79%, Conrad Smith's 86.5%, George Moala's 89.7% or Charlie Ngatai's 95.3%). Based on these stats he's actually been one of the least accurate defenders (although I wouldn't say it's been a huge weakness either).

More to defense than tackling. Jeff Wilson is brilliant at noting mistakes off the ball and he has picked up Fekitoa a few times. He rushes in too much and when he drifts he tends to start off flat footed so players tend to get on the outside easily...but, he usually atones with his brilliant, aggressive tackling.

 

[MotherRucker1]

Maybe not this year, but after the World Cup - watch out for Taufua I reckon.

Offensively, Taufua stacks up extremely well. He has made the most of the opportunities he has had. This is demonstrated by less carries than Messam, Kaino and Shields yet has made more running meters than all of them. Looking abroad, you can add some Aussie internationals to that list too. Also has beaten the most amount of defenders. Has contributed the most amount of points for a blindeside flanker that I can find. Clean breaks are pretty even but he leads some of those guys in that area too. Even when compared to Michael Hooper's attacking stats, Taufua holds his own. He's behind Hooper because Hooper has well over 100 minutes more game time than him – but it's not like he's streaks ahead of Taufua. Not at all.

Obviously stats depend on context, how much possession your team averages in a season for example. But it's fair to say defensively Taufua isn't our best. Gibbins at the Hurricanes has had way less game time, and has made over 30 more tackles than Taufua. Taufua's missed about 14, which is quite high. Especially against guys like Kaino and his stats, or Gibbins. But I actually think the All Black environment could help him with that though. The guy only turned 23 in January. You can't tell me that an end of year tour or something under the best coaches in the world wouldn't make an impact on his development. The fact he leads statistics is not a new phenomena. He has done that throughout his life, including the ITM Cup. Some players are told to go away and work on things - and Hansen could still do that after this year - but if Isaia Toeava justified continuous selection based on his talent, despite his weaknesses (which at times were glaring), then good lord - so can this kid.

In terms of lineout options, Shields is amazing. 20 linout catches and 4 steals. I understand that it can all depend how a team utilizes a player in this area, but some of our other loose forwards don't even come close to this.

It all really harkens back to what I was saying in the Dagg vs Smith discussion – it's about what sort of game plan and style a player can fit into, what opportion he suits, what enviornment is best for him. Selections are very strategic and you have to think ahead. It isn't about how nice your poster is of Ben Smith in your bedroom. Despite what some dope like ENZED-88 will have you believe.

 

[Larksea]

Fekitoa makes some good hits, but his tackling percentage has actually been pretty disappointing at only 76.3% (compared to Ryan Crotty's 79%, Conrad Smith's 86.5%, George Moala's 89.7% or Charlie Ngatai's 95.3%). Based on these stats he's actually been one of the least accurate defenders (although I wouldn't say it's been a huge weakness either).

I certainly think you're going a bit far saying Osbourne is performing "week in week out with a high work rate, low error rate,". He's a very strong ball runner and I'm much more in favor of putting a guy like him on the wing than a much more conservative options, but he's hardly a bastion of accuracy.

another case of stats not telling the full story. It seems Fekitoa's job is to come out of the line and attack on defense, create situations that pin opposition teams behind the gain line and/or create turnovers. He also scrambles very hard on defense and I'd say attempts many tackles that other players would not. Anyone have stats for number of bruised ribs and turnovers created?

obviously he would not be able to do that as much in test matches and he will be expected to stay with the pattern, but he can still hurt guys and win turnovers.

 

[austingtir]

With Fekitoa he is still attacking when he's on defence thats just his mindset I suspect more than what is being coached into him. I also think although the stats are saying he's missed a few the ones he does make tend to be pretty solid.

It would be interesting to know how many turn overs have been affected directly after his tackles compared to the others. I suspect that would be rather telling as well.

Dropping 1 more out of 10 tackles than say Conrad is not that big a deal if he gets more turnovers than Conrad.... But obviously thats hard to quantify.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

i like fekitoa because his defense is also offense, if someone we're playing is keeping it tight in the forwards then i get a bit worried...but if they're going side to side then you just have this feeling a big tackle and turn over is immanent...limits the oppositions options really.

I like the fact he knows he's coming out of the line as well...its not all instinct, i think it was the sharks game on the weekend, he came out fast on their 12 (not 13)...but not fast enough and they got the pass away...their 13 and 14 on Osbourne...fekitoa still managed to turn and run down the 13 so that osbourne could stay on the wing. don't get me wrong, risky play... but if think as long as smith and osbourne/naholo (or whoever their AB counterparts are) know whats happening and can cover accordingly it worth it.

 

[MotherRucker1]

Guys, didn't know where to put this. But seeing as how some posters are very intrigued by statistics (myself included), then I just thought it'd be curious to see New Zealand's best and worst tacklers in each position.

Prop
Best: Angus Ta'avao - 95.2%
Worst: Charlie Faumuina - 78.7%

Hooker
Best: Liam Coltman - 93.2%
Worst: Ash Dixon - 81.2%

Lock
Best: Josh Bekhuis - 95.3%
Worst: Mark Reddish - 83.9%

Loose Forwards:

Best: Akira Ioane - 97.9%
Best: Sam Cane - 97.1%
Best: Callum Gibbins - 96.9%

Worst: Gareth Evans - 82.6%
Worst: Richie McCaw - 82.8%
Worst: Jordan Taufua - 84.9%

Halfback
Best: TJ Perenara - 94.2%
Worst: Jimmy Cowan - 67.7%

First Five
Best: Damian McKenzie - 90.6%
Worst: Ihaia West - 74.4%

Winger
Best: Cory Jane - 94.6%
Worst: Julian Savea - 56.4%

Centre
Best: Charlie Ngatai - 96%
Worst: Francis Saili - 64.2%

Fullback
Best: Charles Piutau - 86.8%
Worst: Tom Marshall - 77.1%

Sam Cane has made the most amount of tackles out of any New Zealand player, only slightly trailing Michael Hooper, and noteably behind Warren Whitely at the Lions. Savea is seriously rubbish at tackling, and if trends continue it will be the worst tackling efforts of anyone in Super Rugby since 2006. McCaw is also well off the pace.

source: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11450673

 

[Kiwiwomble]

Kind of shocking for first choice ABs wing...surprised he isn't targeted more, my memory told me he was very good in D but obviously not!

Kind of funny the highlanders have the best AND worst hooker

 

[nickdnz]

Disagree on Savea's tackling, there is a very specific context for it. If we want to put Savea's tackle statistics in perspective (I've been watching them stay around 50% all season) - it's largely due to being used as a chaser from up and unders very often every game. His line defense and cover defense has actually been very good. It's just that the Canes are using him to chase and disrupt ball for up and unders (which actually work very well, but it's leaving his statistics a lot to be desired). At a guess I'd say 50%+ of missed tackles would be from when he's been the leading chaser.

 

[MotherRucker1]

Wouldn't that just mean he's the worst winger in the competition for doing that then? Surely there are many other speedsters being used in that same context and don't just disrupt, but actually connect with their tackles. It's plausible reasoning to a degree; he wasn't a tackling aficionado on the stats to begin with. But even by Savea's own standards, he's about 17 percent down on his career average.