A Political Thread

[General Melchett]

The ironic thing for me is that the ERG blew their chance of Brexit by holding the no confidence vote in TM way too early. Had they been patient and bode their time they could easily have gotten rid of her now or anytime in the past few weeks as so many Tory MPs would have voted against her. They could then have put a Brexiteer in charge to finish things off.

Their misjudgement and impatience essentially gave May 12 months immunity which means she can cosy up to Labour and not be subject to another confidence vote. Now the ERG are losing their heads and it was all their own doing. Superb stuff.

 

[Amiga500]

Yeah one of them is Tallshort.

Is he the one that kept missing?

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Deleted

 

[General Melchett]

Word is that most of the cabinet were pushing for a No deal Brexit yesterday purely as a way of positioning themselves for the forthcoming Tory leadership contest. National interest my arse. I can see mass resignations if May caves and gives Corbyn too much influence.

Most of the ERG and far right would reject any May/Corbyn deal. If he fails to get a confirmatory vote added I can see many Labour MPs in Remain constituencies voting against it too.

 

[Which Tyler]

Just in and tuning in?
Looks like Cash and Eustace don't like the result of the last vote, and want to kill the next one.
Fancy that, trying to overturn the result not a democratic vote is fine when it's them.

 

[ncurd]

Hammond has come out of a second referendum.

Are we watching the last days of the Conservative party?

 

[truthteller]

so if she bends to corbyns will for some hotch potch softer brexit staying in the customs union, as long as we have control of our borders, she may lose half the tories but gain more labour and win a marginal majority? if thats the only deal that passes then she can have another parliament vote, for this deal or no deal...this deal will probably win that
which will leave just 2 alternatives
this soft deal brexit or remain

she could put this vote to the public in a second referendum
or she could simply put it to the eu and if they accept we leave on a soft brexit deal, staying in the customs union
yes it will tear tories apart, millions of brexiteers will be in a rage, millions of remainers will be in a rage..but she will have a parliamentary majority

 

[ncurd]

Front pages of the papers are.shall we say...
Interesting.

 

[Gavin]

As a Northern Irish person, I love how the DUP are back-tracking and becoming more obsolete to the Conservatives...

 

[Amiga500]

Are we watching the last days of the Conservative party?

Hopefully labour splits too.

Having a system dominated by two parties is very unhealthy.

 

[Amiga500]

As a Northern Irish person, I love how the DUP are back-tracking and becoming more obsolete to the Conservatives...

What ye doing with a munster crest on yer profile ye bo||ox ye?

(The DUP have progressed a United Ireland further in 2 years more than Sinn Fein managed in 20 - must make Arlene feel very proud.)

 

[General Melchett]

so if she bends to corbyns will for some hotch potch softer brexit staying in the customs union, as long as we have control of our borders, she may lose half the tories but gain more labour and win a marginal majority? if thats the only deal that passes then she can have another parliament vote, for this deal or no deal...this deal will probably win that
which will leave just 2 alternatives
this soft deal brexit or remain

she could put this vote to the public in a second referendum
or she could simply put it to the eu and if they accept we leave on a soft brexit deal, staying in the customs union
yes it will tear tories apart, millions of brexiteers will be in a rage, millions of remainers will be in a rage..but she will have a parliamentary majority

In the absence of a General Election and to avoid no deal, Labour's position as agreed at their last party conference is for a confirmatory vote. The majority of Labour party members support this position. Corbyn will be in the firing line (in a non literal sense this time) if he deviates from this position. Both parties could end up severely split if they agree on May's deal + Labour's customs union only.

I'm getting fed up of politicians using the same cheap line by saying that 80% of people voted for parties who promised to honour the result of the referendum at the last GE. First of all the election was back in 2017 when most people still had no idea what Brexit looked like - just like in 2016. Secondly we have a corrupt two party system which was always going to result in the Tories and Labour getting the lion's share - regardless of what they put in their manifestos.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

So I see Onasanja being able to vote last night has got Brexiteers' knickers in a real twist; especially as the majority was only one. Lol!!

 

[truthteller]

so what are corbyns demands? customs union? anything else?

 

[ncurd]

so what are corbyns demands? customs union? anything else?

Nobody actually knows the talks have been tight lipped so far.

I think the only two things known to the public are the Customs Union as described by the Ken Clarke motion or a possible confirmatory referendum. We known Corbyn is likely personally against this but it would cause him a huge wound within his party if he were to not try for it. Hammonds statement last night certainly seams to indicate its on the table.

Reality is they have to work out how to get the Labour votes and not lose Tory votes, they do known however a confirmatory referendum will also yield the votes of SNP, TIG, LD, PC & Green.

 

[General Melchett]

Most MPs are going to vote in line with how their constituents voted in the 2016 referendum for the purposes of getting re-elected at the next GE. Given that it is largely a Remain Parliament I imagine May's deal + confirmatory vote should command a healthy majority. That way May hasn't had to surrender too much to Corbyn while he can demonstrate he got something out of it. The only MPs I can see rejecting this are the ERG plus other Tory and Labour MPs in Leave constituencies.

The question is can he personally stomach that given his anti EU views. I can't see May agreeing to customs union + confirmatory vote as she'd be surrendering too much and would lose a lot of Tory support.

 

[ncurd]

Yeah I suspect it will be one or the other just a question of which Corbyn think he can sell to his party the best and can stomach.

Both Starmer and Thornburry have briefed of a referendum as well.

I'm not counting my chickens though...

 

[ncurd]

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1113827097930280960

 

[ncurd]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47825841

Maybot asks for extension that was rejected last time....

 

[General Melchett]

It's getting silly now. Tusk offers a one year flexible extension that can be ended early but rather than accept that May asks for yet another short extension just to prevent annoying the right wing of her party. The EU must be getting fed up of the repeated requests for short extensions. Embarrassing.