Might be one way for the Scots to get independence - everyone else kicking them out of the UK....
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A Political Thread pt. 2
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Might be one way for the Scots to get independence - everyone else kicking them out of the UK....
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Far Right leading the first round in France, followed by Far Left and then Macron's alliance.
Does their have to be a majority in France and if National Rally don't get it could we have a collation between New Popular Front and Macron's alliance?
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Macron maybe taking a big personal hit for the long term good.
If he'd waited till 3 years time, then both the presidential office and parliament could be in RN/NR hands.
Now he's giving himself 3 years to expose them in parliament and limit the damage they can do.
If he'd waited till 3 years time, then both the presidential office and parliament could be in RN/NR hands.
Now he's giving himself 3 years to expose them in parliament and limit the damage they can do.
I dont think there will be any deals with Le Pen so we'll see.
The 100 seats 2 way run offs between NFP/ENS and RN assuming national vote rather than constituency. Will see the center and left unite most likely.
So it really leaves the 244 seats just three ways. In the past the French center and left have usually united behind one banner to stop RN. It's how Macron originally got in. Whether they can do so again when there isnt a clear and obvious choice remains to be seen.
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Saw last night that Macrons party have said they're going to withdraw a lot of candidates so as not to split the vote vs Le Pen, definitely squeaky bum time
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Yeah, I've said the same sort of thing. It's weird to think of, for a modern politician, and especially for Macron of a few years ago, but there's a possibility that he's called these elections for good reasons.
The European Elections were a signal that he really didn't seem to have a mandate from the people - now normally, politicians couldn't give a flying fig about that, so long as they have the levers of power - but I think Macron since giving up on negotiating with Putin is a different man, and has a greater appreciation of the importance of democracy and Western values. So between whatever ability the French President has to mitigate a disastrous Parliament (I wouldn't know; I got the impression he has actual power because he's the leader of the dominant party/coalition in parliament, not because he's president) and an actual belief that representing your country is important; I think he may just have called the election for good and laudable reasons. Even if it doesn't work that way when we get hindsight in a decade's time.
It seems to me like the Western World is having it's fling with the far (or at least, further) right again. As is normal in these things, the US led, the UK followed first a few years behind, and the rest of Europe follow a few years after that - though the time frames are a little closer than usual for this flirtation.
Thankfully, the UK seems to have learned it's lesson, and is swinging back towards the middle - if still further right than many of us would like. The swung back, and is currently in the balance (though the majority certainly seem to still be favouring the comparatively-leftist candidate).
The Italian right doesn't seem to be as bad as feared (almost certainly helped by them not seeming to be Putin lick-spittles), the Swedes, Spanish and Germans seem to have gotten away with just a close shave (so far). The Netherlands have fallen, and France is in the balance.
I'm biased, but I think the left needs to instil some actual leftist values into things. Things like tolerance, taxes for the obscenely wealthy*, and closing off of loopholes, and using that to pay for health, education, social care (and a boosted military, given Putin, and the possibility of Trump2); rather than allowing further dissatisfaction with a slightly lighter shade of neoliberalism and austerity.
IMO the swing to the right is caused by dissatisfaction with one's lot in life, and the ever-easy tactic of blaming an "other". If we can address that dissatisfaction, by reducing inequality, and improving the state of the little worlds we all live in (so MY kids' school, MY mum's GP appointment, affordable of MY utility bills, roads that don't cost ME hundreds of pounds to fix the suspension/wheel rims etc etc).
* Saw a thing the other day - Bezos lost 50% of everything he owned in his divorce, including his future paid earnings. He's also the richest person on the planet. Taxing him and the likes at 50-60% isn't going to be unmanageable for he and his.
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I think they are all valid points. The one other big one missed is the impact of migration. Ranking top three in concerns in Germany, France and England. Ultimately it needs a solution because it's becoming a real issue for all.
Partly caused by fear mongering by the right. Yet also reasonable concerns by people on the impact on health and housing. I know my family in Germany feel they are at breaking point. With an attitude amongst younger Germans who feel they shouldn't keep being the good guys of Europe because of the shame, guilt and mistakes of older generations.
Also a number of people in Germany and France have concerns/perception rightly or wrongly of having to pull all the weight and finances of the EU whilst others do not
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I find it genuinely difficult to work out what's going on with the immigration issue - partly through my "privilege" of where I live - an unfashionable small town in a rural area, well away from any ports, and my own bias as a liberal leftie.
I see elements of a genuine problem, I see elements of immigrants being net contributors to the economy, I see elements of "other"ing, I see elements of immigration being essential to the "infinite growth" fallacy of neoliberalism and capitalism, I see elements of fear-mongering to build a mountain out of a molehill, I see elements of outright racism, and I see elements of distraction from "more real" problems - with all of those elements intersecting and reacting with each other.
I just find it too complex an issue, and too removed from my lived experience*, to judge the issue on its own merits and demerits. My bias makes me suspect that that's the case for the vast majority who try to look beyond the basic fearmongering and stirring of hatred that is so obviously apparent to everyone. It's my bias, and I try not to let it rule my head. Obviously, I fail.
(*Other than a few bits of racist abuse for my wife after the Brexit vote)
On the perceptions thing - I did have an "interesting" discussion with a right wing friend a couple of years ago; who was feeling that the country was failing, and it was failing despite his party being in power for over a decade. He had never felt poorer personally. This is a guy who had recently bought a BMW new from the dealership, and who a decade previously had been hmming and harring over whether he could afford a clapped-out old Corsa, and how having graduated a decade before that, he shouldn't be driving student-fodder. Someone who replaced the dead washing machine without even checking his balance, when he'd had to save up for a month or so to buy that washing machine in the first place. But he'd never felt poorer.
Human perceptions are terrible things, and easily manipulated.
His golf buddies were doing better than him, and had bigger BMWs, more overseas holidays etc etc; so he'd gone from being poor, hanging out with other poor people, to being well-off, hanging out with better-off people, and felt poorer, despite categorically earning approximately 3-4 times as much p.a. within a decade, because his business became successful. Those people he was playing golf with now, through his business connections, simply weren't his social sphere beforehand.
He was aghast that I felt that he could afford a bit more tax, when he felt poor, economising to put his kids through private school, and looking at dropping his overseas holidays from 4 to 3 times a year - if he's doing that, how could he possibly afford a higher tax burden, if anything, he felt it was already too high, as C£60k* simply isn't enough to get by on (*significantly more if you close somecreative accounting loopholes in his declarations).
I see elements of a genuine problem, I see elements of immigrants being net contributors to the economy, I see elements of "other"ing, I see elements of immigration being essential to the "infinite growth" fallacy of neoliberalism and capitalism, I see elements of fear-mongering to build a mountain out of a molehill, I see elements of outright racism, and I see elements of distraction from "more real" problems - with all of those elements intersecting and reacting with each other.
I just find it too complex an issue, and too removed from my lived experience*, to judge the issue on its own merits and demerits. My bias makes me suspect that that's the case for the vast majority who try to look beyond the basic fearmongering and stirring of hatred that is so obviously apparent to everyone. It's my bias, and I try not to let it rule my head. Obviously, I fail.
(*Other than a few bits of racist abuse for my wife after the Brexit vote)
On the perceptions thing - I did have an "interesting" discussion with a right wing friend a couple of years ago; who was feeling that the country was failing, and it was failing despite his party being in power for over a decade. He had never felt poorer personally. This is a guy who had recently bought a BMW new from the dealership, and who a decade previously had been hmming and harring over whether he could afford a clapped-out old Corsa, and how having graduated a decade before that, he shouldn't be driving student-fodder. Someone who replaced the dead washing machine without even checking his balance, when he'd had to save up for a month or so to buy that washing machine in the first place. But he'd never felt poorer.
Human perceptions are terrible things, and easily manipulated.
His golf buddies were doing better than him, and had bigger BMWs, more overseas holidays etc etc; so he'd gone from being poor, hanging out with other poor people, to being well-off, hanging out with better-off people, and felt poorer, despite categorically earning approximately 3-4 times as much p.a. within a decade, because his business became successful. Those people he was playing golf with now, through his business connections, simply weren't his social sphere beforehand.
He was aghast that I felt that he could afford a bit more tax, when he felt poor, economising to put his kids through private school, and looking at dropping his overseas holidays from 4 to 3 times a year - if he's doing that, how could he possibly afford a higher tax burden, if anything, he felt it was already too high, as C£60k* simply isn't enough to get by on (*significantly more if you close some
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Pretty much all my experience with immigrants especially in my adult life are people who are clearly net contributors. Thats mainly because my significant encounters are at work where they are highly skilled professionals for jobs we struggle to find UK staff for.
Actually quite surprising as Whcih Tyler put it an unfashionable small town in a rural area somewhere 25%-33% of our staff are immigrants from all over the world. Although I think all of us who live in town are British born.
I've reason some reasoned debate here but reality is public services did fine with immigration levels before Austerity. I can't shake it feels like an easy scape goat of othering all too often for other widespread political issues (and racism, not everyone who votes on immigration is a racist but its significant proportion of the group).
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Just to throw in a couple of geopolitical observations. I think Russia has a clear goal to destabilise the west and has managed to do this via it's military action in Syria and Ukraine which has driven millions of people to Europe. Far right politicians have seized on this and deliberately created division in their own countries by suggesting that immigrants illegal or otherwise are the root cause of ALL problems.
Trump and the Republicans are more interested in gaining power domestically and treating America like a company or business (or furthering their own business interests) rather than keeping peace and order globally. Trump getting another term will be like Christmas for Putin (and Netanyahu).
The west has been far too soft on the criminal gangs. If that happened in Russia Putin would have false flagged them and dealt with them like terrorists. Starmer is right about smashing the gangs. It's surely time to up the stakes and start involving more sophisticated intelligence agencies and if need be more force.
Trump and the Republicans are more interested in gaining power domestically and treating America like a company or business (or furthering their own business interests) rather than keeping peace and order globally. Trump getting another term will be like Christmas for Putin (and Netanyahu).
The west has been far too soft on the criminal gangs. If that happened in Russia Putin would have false flagged them and dealt with them like terrorists. Starmer is right about smashing the gangs. It's surely time to up the stakes and start involving more sophisticated intelligence agencies and if need be more force.
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Population increase hasn't helped with demand on services. Austerity and population increase a perfect storm. From what i can tell till the early 90's i took around 50 years for the population to increase by 10 million from the 50's It's now taking around 20 years to hit another 10 million.
One of the issues with smashing the gangs is you are reliant on cooperation of foreign law enforcement. Which in my experience isn't always the greatest. With others intersts and policy coming first. How likely a far right french government will assist i don't know. I would guess this is likely to cause further pressure on other countries with France being less welcoming.
One of the issues with smashing the gangs is you are reliant on cooperation of foreign law enforcement. Which in my experience isn't always the greatest. With others intersts and policy coming first. How likely a far right french government will assist i don't know. I would guess this is likely to cause further pressure on other countries with France being less welcoming.
About a 0-1% growth since 1961 so its been pretty steady really.
Of actual numbers are exponential that's gonna happen regardless of which country you are.
It's such a complex issue, like most political issues tbh. Let's just take these two points. Yes a population increase will affect the quality of service, but that's based on if the service and the capacity don't improve. If the country needs workers and your system allows them to come in and work, then part of your job should be to plan how your public services will meet their needs. That doesn't even just have to be capacity. Let's say workers on temporary visas have to pay 15% of treatment for example, ideas like that. However, you need to do something to make it work. So is immigration's fault or poor planning and organisation by the government. Farmers have had crops go to waste recently because of worker shortages. That then affects the economy and further reduces money available.
Tbh, I don't feel the biggest problem is immigration or taxes or generally most of the political issues people discuss. Yes, people getting poorer is terrible, but it's a symptom, not a cause. The cause is the complete collapse of anything meaningful in are political system. Politicians who promise what they think the electorate wants to hear so they can get reelected. Political discussions that are worthless because rather than actually discussing the issue and acknowledging it's complexity, it gets broken down into simplified headlines, often to scare voters or again promise them something rosy. We have a large electorate that are simply not educated enough to understand the complexities of the issues and that's even if their willing to. I remember trying to discuss Brexit with my mum and she admitted she didn't know enough to talk about the issue. Well if you don't know enough, then why are you voting?
Currently British democracy is broken. The majority of people don't vote for who they want, they vote to stop who they don't want. The majority of the politicians will not do what is best for the country, but what is best to get them reelected. Look at Labour completely refusing to discuss rejoining the EU. I'm not saying it is the right option, but to completely dismiss it seems ridiculous after all the problems British companies have had exporting goods, to the point many have moved into the EU. Politically it seems suicidal to discuss it and they are probably right, but in terms of what is best for the country it's madness not to have all options on the table, especially when the country is in such a deep hole. Labour keep saying it's not going to be a quick and easy turn around. I honestly reckon they are hugely understating the issue.
And I haven't even started on the media's responsibility for the state of things...
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The non discussion of Brexit in the Tories and Labour's manifestos is just utter madness, which is why I won't vote for either.
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From a steady 0.3 to 0.6 - 0.8. You could say that's a marginal increase or say it's over double. Is taking half the time for a population to increase by nearly 10 million steady i don't know.
My main issue is when you factor in austerity and cuts to public services when population growth is higher than it's been for decades you are asking for trouble. When the infrastructure isn't keeping pace. From a policing and local government point of view we simply haven't had the funds or resources to keep up.
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Unfortunately I don't think any Tory/Labour party leader is going to raise it until they know the polling data shows sustained majority support and they're willing to put their political career on the line by campaigning to re-join. We already hear the Tories accusing Starmer of moving towards freedom of movement which is likely to be an attack line when they're in opposition.
Not sure what current polling shows but I heard the chairman of Asda say that at least 2% of those who voted to leave in 2016 will have now died and been replaced by a new wave of young voters who would be pro re-join.
Yeah but for me that's the issue. We have a democracy that is so childish that politicians refuse to discuss a serious issue, many people refuse to discuss or hear about the same issue and we have a media that will twist and manipulate any attempt to discuss the issue to suit their own ends. And that's without the name calling that would also be involved. There is no reasoned debate, no compromise, no willingness to work together. Hell, even during the pandemic, Labour was left completely out of the decision making, but had to go along with the government's plans, not because they agreed, but so they wouldn't be seen as obstructionist.
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Agree and I wish that wasn't the case but that's our political system. If Labour raised it then the Tories would just start lying, scare mongering and misrepresenting again like they did with their 'The Turks are coming ' and the false NHS claim on the side of a bus. It'd probably be much worse than in 2016 what with elections being fought using deep fakes and AI on Tik-tok now.
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