A Political Thread pt. 2

[Ragey Erasmus]

He'd have to overturn the constitution or unleash a military coup. Seriously we're protected by the 22nd amendment which no court will overturn. That or all out Civil War in the states.

It's not going to be a pretty 4 years but I also think decent into dictatorship just won't happen. Mire likely he'll do **** all and just absolve himself of his crimes.

After last night though I wouldn't be surprised if the DNC didn't endorse a new candidate by mid August.

The Congress and supreme court have both shown they have no qualms about enabling trump to break the law and the constitution.

 

[ncurd]

The Congress and supreme court have both shown they have no qualms about enabling trump to break the law and the constitution.

How?

He lost virtually every appeal to voter fraud.
January 6th - Congress ratified the result that day despite the attack.
The rico case in Georgia

In the latest cases of him doing so have shown that are are far from enabling him.

A constitutional amendment required 2/3 of the senate or the house and 3/4 of the states! The 22nd isn't going to be repealed unless the republicans have a massive surge in popularity.

If your referring to states trying to remove Trump form the ballot that was always a stupid long shot until he was convicted of the above rico case.

I'm not saying a Trump presidency won't be bad just that somethings are way overblown. The checks and balances are there and they were robustly tested last time and succeeded.

Predicted Trump up by 6 points.

I would never read too much into post debate polls lots of lead time to see their impact and someone always gets a minor surge.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I would never read too much into post debate polls lots of lead time to see their impact and someone always gets a minor surge.

This.

If Allan Lichtman, who has predicted every election winner (apart from 2000, although he says Gore did win) since 1980 is to be believed then debates, campaign will not decide this election. His keys (based on every election since 1860) are:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’: can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?

The professor on his famous 13 ‘keys’ to the White House, a method for predicting election results that’s been right nine times out of 10

www.theguardian.com

 

[Saintjay]

This.

If Allan Lichtman, who has predicted every election winner (apart from 2000, although he says Gore did win) since 1980 is to be believed then debates, campaign will not decide this election. His keys (based on every election since 1860) are:

‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’: can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?

The professor on his famous 13 ‘keys’ to the White House, a method for predicting election results that’s been right nine times out of 10

www.theguardian.com

He also said Trumps chances of running in 2024 were slim and his brand was failing.

We will have to see who he names this time.

 

[ncurd]

He also said Trumps chances of running in 2024 were slim and his brand was failing.

I think Trump's main reason for running again is the moderate republicans didn't find a unity candidate to really back 2-3 years ago.

If they'd done that Trump may have had significantly less than the several candidates during the primaries. He was able to gobble them up pretty easily

 

[Welsh Exile]

He'd have to overturn the constitution or unleash a military coup. Seriously we're protected by the 22nd amendment which no court will overturn. That or all out Civil War in the states.

It's not going to be a pretty 4 years but I also think decent into dictatorship just won't happen. Mire likely he'll do **** all and just absolve himself of his crimes.

After last night though I wouldn't be surprised if the DNC didn't endorse a new candidate by mid August.

Yeah I think talk of Amercia turning into a dictatorship is a bit silly but I do fear for Ukraine but maybe it will give us in Europe the kick up the arse we need and start picking up the slack left behind when Trump inevitably withdraws support.

 

[Reiser99]

Tbh for me, Trump winning means less chance of a dictatorship. Him losing is what could potentially trigger a lot of civil unrest.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Tbh for me, Trump winning means less chance of a dictatorship. Him losing is what could potentially trigger a lot of civil unrest.

Possibly though even if Biden loses he'll still likely win the popular vote so the Dems will have the numbers. lol

 

[ncurd]

Yeah I worry way more about civil unrest than actually overthrowing the leavers of power.

 

[Which Tyler]

 

[Saintjay]

The worst thing is Farage and Reform now claiming the racist idiots and the main person recorded by C4 was an actor.

I agree with LBC in that Sunak and his comments on racism and his daughter is the most sincere he's been.

General election live: Rishi Sunak condemns racist term used about him by Reform UK canvasser

The prime minister said it "hurt" to think his daughters heard the racial slur being used about him.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[ncurd]

I agree with LBC in that Sunak and his comments on racism and his daughter is the most sincere he's been.

I wish he hadn't been engaged in dog whistle politics he had an opportunity to really push that away when he became leader. He has every right to be pissy though and I'm glad he is.

TBF to Sunak when he talks about his daughters (or weirdly national service) is when he seams like a real human.

 

[ncurd]

Also hate Farage saying it was and actor whilst inviting the BNP. That was the **** excuse they use to say. Hope it's another moment of true colours for them and it'll dent their polls now.

In-laws (who are racist but would never admit it as its casual racism) didn't belive us when we told them Reform were a racist party. Hopefully this helps drive that some for them.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

He also said Trumps chances of running in 2024 were slim and his brand was failing.

We will have to see who he names this time.

He also said his system isn't perfect, but 90% isn't bad. He is just saying campaigning, polls and debates are overblown out of all proportion. They won't determine the result of this election. We know American politics is extremely polarised and most have made up their minds on who they will vote for. It's those swing state voters who will ultimately decide it.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

2024 General Election survey - Vote for Policies

Not sure who to vote for? Compare promises without seeing which party they belong to. Vote with confidence in the 2024 General Election.

voteforpolicies.org.uk

 

[Bada-Bing!]

In-laws (who are racist but would never admit it as its casual racism) didn't belive us when we told them Reform were a racist party. Hopefully this helps drive that some for them.

That's it. And we know the underlying conservative membership are mostly made up of white, middle class 50 something year old males and voted for Truss over Rishi to be PM on the basis of her ethnicity reflecting their own rather than any substance or policy. These are the kind of voters who will secretly approve of what Farage is saying and this racist canvasser.

As an ethnic minority who's grown up in this country although I have encountered few incidents of outright racism, but it's the snide casual racism that I have experienced the most and hurts. The racists who don't believe themselves to be racist and cover it up with oh I can't be racist because I am friends with so and so who is black or Indian.

 

[ncurd]

2024 General Election survey - Vote for Policies

Not sure who to vote for? Compare promises without seeing which party they belong to. Vote with confidence in the 2024 General Election.

voteforpolicies.org.uk

Time to vote Plaid again!

Nah Green/LD as this time they've asked me if I live in England

 

[Amiga500]

Really wouldn't be surprised if Trump wins again, now - feels like the tides are turning a bit - and the Democrats will have no one to blame but themselves for not bothering to try and find someone new to lead them in the last decade

In addition to not quietly nudging Joe that it was time to go off and enjoy his retirement rather than living a stressful as f*k life for anyone, never mind a 80something year old, they fuked up sticking with Kamala Harris.

Since she clearly wasn't president-in-waiting material 12 months ago, they should have been pushing 1 or 2 congress(wo)men or senators from the centre of the party hard into the public eye to build their profile.

They didn't, now they have nothing. None of those that contested the 2024 primaries have a profile or mandate. They'd near be safer going back to 2020. Would Bernie (who is also too old and additional too divisive) endorse Elizabeth Warren? (who herself is no spring chicken, but is one of the very few Dems that have immediate profile to go up against Trump and I think polled more of the popular primary vote in 2020 than all the others put together did in 2024)

 

[Which Tyler]

I'll be honest - I think we're all over-reacting here.
Not to how much of a disaster a 2nd Trump term would be (see anything at all about "Project 2025" and "Schedule F"); but how much impact a single debate, 5 months out from the election, is going to make.

These debates rarely make any difference whatsoever.
Debates this far out is unlikely to make any difference whatsoever.
These are two well known candidates, both of whom are looking for their 2nd term as president - nothing much that they do now is going to make much difference whatsoever. Everyone knows that Trump can't complete a full sentence without lying, and that Biden has a stutter, and can look a little bit lost (whilst still showing a far greater grasp on reality than his opponent). Everyone knows that they're both too old for the job. The debate hasn't shown us anything that we didn't already know.

 

[Al Bangor]

I think a President Trump is good for Israel, bad for Palestine & Ukraine and not great for the EU and NATO. Trump has been critical of the EU in the past and seems to prefer us. His mother was Scottish, he has golf courses here and seems to love the pomp and ceremony with the royals.

You can have him. Please, take him. Please! I'm begging you!