A look ahead: the 2014 Six Nations

[Big Ewis]

Interesting article, summarizing the situation well:
[h=1]No clear winner ahead of Six Nations[/h]http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3820_9053707,00.html



Now that the EOYT is definitively over, who've you got for the 2014 6N and why ?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Clearly all 4 of Ireland, France, England and Wales are at a good level and all on the up IMO.

I am going to go for England simply because of scheduling; they face their biggest challenges at home. Of course they have France away but I see that as no more difficult for them as beating Wales at home simply because they have a more settled team than France and it's the 1st fixture for both so I see them as having a 'head start' and then they can build into good showings from there. I am assuming here that they can put close to their 1st choice team out onto the field though.

 

[ianw16]

Am going to take a chance on France (does that make me a poet?). As good as they need to be up front, and a far better backline than England, even at full strength, which they won't be. Wales will be there or thereabouts. Can't see any team being unbeaten. Not convinced yet about Ireland. Let's see if they can play well on a consistent basis, rather than just one-off performances.

 

[Big Ewis]

Clearly all 4 of Ireland, France, England and Wales are at a good level and all on the up IMO.

I am going to go for England simply because of scheduling; they face their biggest challenges at home. Of course they have France away but I see that as no more difficult for them as beating Wales at home simply because they have a more settled team than France and it's the 1st fixture for both so I see them as having a 'head start' and then they can build into good showings from there. I am assuming here that they can put close to their 1st choice team out onto the field though.

Oh yeah, agreed. I expect France to show something good in the opener, but an English win is totally foreseeable. They're settled, play an extremely simple game, and know that game well already. France still are looking for some flair back on attack. I mean I was just watching some of the 2011 RWC earlier, even more recently the 2012 EOYT against Aus and Arg, with guys like an on-form Michalak, Fofana and Clerc, great work at the breakdown, we were genuinely strong on attack. Organized, good chemistry, great execution...it's just part of French Rugby even if French Flair is gone for now, and we need to find it again.
Eventually the XV de France will mesh, but not sure they'll be ready enough for this one. I've got good hope though.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Interesting above. I have no idea of who is out for England as I didn't follow their games this year but I've been impressed with quite a number of their backs; Wade, Tuilagi and Brown are all very dangerous players IMO.

That said having faced France this year some of those unknown names of theirs impressed me just as much, Fofana I knew was a threat but I was surprised by Dulin and Huget specifically.

I just think the English know how to beat France and like I said I think they have that head start in having played together for longer now, again I am saying this not knowing the exact injury situation.

I have no idea where to put Wales. I see them and France fighting for 2nd spot with Ireland in 4rth then Scotland and Italy with the wooden spoon.

 

[Big Ewis]

Well England won't have Tuilagi, wingers Wade and Yarde will possibly both miss the tournament. Corbisiero is out again at loosehead, but they've got backup there.
While Wales get the likes of Adam Jones and Jamie Roberts back...Jonathan Davies too.

The difference for us will be the return of Picamoles (the reason why we lost to South Africa, obviously) and an on-form Domingo, hopefully.

 

[ianw16]

Interesting above. I have no idea of who is out for England as I didn't follow their games this year but I've been impressed with quite a number of their backs; Wade, Tuilagi and Brown are all very dangerous players IMO.

That said having faced France this year some of those unknown names of theirs impressed me just as much, Fofana I knew was a threat but I was surprised by Dulin and Huget specifically.

I just think the English know how to beat France and like I said I think they have that head start in having played together for longer now, again I am saying this not knowing the exact injury situation.

I have no idea where to put Wales. I see them and France fighting for 2nd spot with Ireland in 4rth then Scotland and Italy with the wooden spoon.

Wade and Tuilagi are injured, and out of 6n. I'm no big fan of Tuilagi anyways. As I've posted elsewhere, think he lacks the vision, passing ability and defensive game for a true 13. More like a younger Ma'a Nonu, before he developed some skills. Much of his reputation is based on a couple of games only, which weren't a true indication of his talents (or lack thereof) for me. Hopefully he's fit for the June tour of NZ, and comes up against a fit and well Conrad Smith.
As for the French, I think it'll be interesting to see if they carry on with the young guy they played against the AB's (Tales?), but Fritz and Fofana are way better than anything England can put in those positions. Brown is good defensively, but wouldn't give you tuppence for the rest of that English backline. Don't see them being sufficiently dominant up front to win the game there, especially in Paris. Would be surprised if England win that one. Wales at Twickenham will be interesting. If Wales just treat it as a piece of turf like any other, then no reason they shouldn't win. As I said though, difficult to see one team going through the whole tournament unbeaten.

 

[Big Ewis]

Well 12trees needs to be on the French watch. He's stronger than he looks, even though he's still young and can't compare to Fofana and Fritz yet, especially defensively. And Brown is a bundle of nerves, he's like a cat, and I can see him get a few interesting runs against France and instill panic for brief moments amongst the home troops. If England score a try (or more), I'd imagine Brown would have smt to do with it (with one of them).

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

England haven't had a chance to put out our best back line at all as far as I'm aware (Yarde, Brown and Wade) which is pretty disappointing. We have alternative talents in the backs but again they haven't had game time and are not settled in the team.

 

[ianw16]

England haven't had a chance to put out our best back line at all as far as I'm aware (Yarde, Brown and Wade) which is pretty disappointing. We have alternative talents in the backs but again they haven't had game time and are not settled in the team.

Will it make any difference, as long as they keep picking Farrell at 10?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

... I might still pick England if only because I think consistency in performances wins tournaments and I see England as having the most consistency with Wales not having the depth and France not caring about test rugby. Ireland I think will do well to get higher than 4rth considering they have a new coach. The rest I don't see as having a chance. That said, what the hell do I know and I suppose the 6N is a short enough tournament for 1 game to turn it!

 

[ratsapprentice]

Other than wanting two players to get a little bit of experience from the bench (Kvesic and Attwood) I'm pretty happy with our forward pack.
The best players we have for the most part and seem to be coached very well.

We have been very unlucky with injuries recently. Many of our best attacking backs have picked up long-term injuries in recent weeks.
Lancaster needs to be brave and not pick the same old tried-and-not-trusted journeymen he has done at times.

Wade, Yarde and Tuilagi are all big losses. Cruel ones in the case of Wade and Yarde.

Outside backs in the current senior squad (injured in bold):

Alex Goode
Mike Brown
Ben Foden
Chris Ashton
Marland Yarde
Christian Wade

Outside backs from the Saxons who could be brought in as direct replacements:

Jack Nowell
Anthony Watson
David Strettle
Jonny May

From that you could have either of these:

11. Mike Brown
14. Chris Ashton
15. Alex Goode

or

11. Jonny May
14. Anthony Watson/Jack Nowell
15. Mike Brown

One has been shown to be ineffective the other has the potential to actually threaten - even with little possession.

The same goes for the centres we have a lot of injuries there and it will be interesting to see who he picks.
There is less risk of conservatism (short of calling up Tindall) in the centres however, as his hand will be forced by relative lack of viable conservative options.

We are still going to have issues at half-back, whoever is chosen outside of that.
Farrell is a dead cert unless he spontaneously combusts and whoever we pick at SH will inevitably have glaring weaknesses.
Flood is looking more likely to leave for France every day, so Freddie Burns will likely be on the bench.
If that does happen, it will be interesting to see who Lancaster brings in as his replacement you would have to assume it's between George Ford and Danny Cipriani.

36 is almost garuanteed to start at IC although there is a small chance that he might be moved to 13 in order to accommodate Luther Burrell.
The centres will be made up of any of these guys, and we may see two IC's playing at once:

IC:

Billy Twelvetrees
Kyle Eastmond
Luther Burrell

OC:

Jonathan Joseph
Henry Trinder
Elliot Daly

Will it make any difference, as long as they keep picking Farrell at 10?

Yes - we have lots of wingers who actually have the ability to beat players one on one, something that Ashton is embarrassingly bad at and something that you can't expect Foden to be able to do as a 15 (used to running from depth before stepping).
Actually putting players in gaps would be nice, but we have guys who can create a lot more than we've seen from our wingers for the last year or so if we continue to pass to them in no space.

 

[Peat]

Nobody has mentioned the biggest factor here and that is we are post Lions tour. France have won the last four post Lions tour Six Nations straight. Three of them with Grand Slams. Any reason to reckon this one being different?

 

[ratsapprentice]

Who did they play on their coinciding summer tours?

 

[Peat]

South Africa 2005, New Zealand 2009. Wiki does not go back further than that but, since they're basically the only touring game left in town for a Sanzar team in Lions years, its probably like that the rest of the time.

 

[ratsapprentice]

Fair enough, just making sure they didn't tour Italy, Georgia and Romania!

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Who did they play on their coinciding summer tours?

South Africa 2005, New Zealand 2009. Wiki does not go back further than that but, since they're basically the only touring game left in town for a Sanzar team in Lions years, its probably like that the rest of the time.

2013 NZ x 3
2009 NZ x 2, Aus x 1
2005 SA x 2, Aus x 1
2001 SA x 2, NZ x 1

 

[ianw16]

Yes - we have lots of wingers who actually have the ability to beat players one on one, something that Ashton is embarrassingly bad at and something that you can't expect Foden to be able to do as a 15 (used to running from depth before stepping).
Actually putting players in gaps would be nice, but we have guys who can create a lot more than we've seen from our wingers for the last year or so if we continue to pass to them in no space.

Have to disagree. Farrell stands too deep and crabs sideways. He's not the only England back to do the latter, mind. Any team with a half decent drift defence is not going to be unduly bothered by whoever is on the wing, defence being one of the prerequisites for getting picked in most teams in that position. Very rarely will you see a winger, confronted with plenty of defenders, no matter how good he is, just running through or around the opposition. Ben Smith can do it, Habana is pretty special too, not to mention Savea.
The main reason that NZ, for instance, come up with wingers with incredible stats for tries per game, is that they generally get the ball to them quickly before the defence can drift (plus teams daft enough to keep kicking the ball to them). This requires a 10, in particular, who can stand flat and still have the rugby brain to see what's on. A decent 12 and 13 help too, but it starts at 10. Farrell just isn't international class imo, and England will struggle unless the players you mention are absolute world beaters and rely on the oppo kicking the ball to them from broken play.
I've no doubt even Ashton would get a fair number of tries playing outside Carter/Cruden, Nonu and C. Smith, but not if you swapped Carter/Cruden for Farrell. If Savea and B. Smith (or Jane, or Piutau) were in the England backline, they would have nothing like the chances to score that they currently get. You seriously need a decent 10, or they aren't going to get the space that you talk about them needing. And it won't be one on one, more likely one on three or four, with six inches of space to work in.

 

[Peat]

2013 NZ x 3
2009 NZ x 2, Aus x 1
2005 SA x 2, Aus x 1
2001 SA x 2, NZ x 1

Cheers bro

Re Farrell - I don't want to defend him or make out he isn't a large part of the problem, but opportunities do appear for the wingers with him there. England have tons of young wingers blessed with pace, footwork or both in abundance, and they'd probably make something of the chances Ashton is blowing. The Farrell problem needs fixing before we can really see the best from our backs, but there is enough going on to make a wish for better wingers valid.

 

[ratsapprentice]

I don't disagree about Farrell: his fundamental FH skills are severely lacking at international level.

What I'm saying is that we can pick players who can do more with the kind of possession Farrell provides (shoveled ****) than those who are currently being picked.
They can do things other than run in a straight line and receive a pass in open space - they actually have the ability to challenge and beat defenders.

Edit: basically what Peat said^^