It's nearly 9pm here in Adelaide and I'm trying to get some sleep before the big game but I just cannot stop thinking about it. 3 years of hype, one of the most intense rivalries in the sport, a world cup on the line. There are so many words to describe what this means to Welsh fans; massive, huge, enormous, monumental, mammoth, gargantuan. I could go on. I am fizzing with nervous tension, I am pacing around the house, playing in my head all scenarios that possibly eventuate. Safe to say now, no sleep for me tonight.
On to the game. It is so tight. Contrary to what the crazy $4.33 odds I saw on Wales earlier in the week, this will be an immensely tight contest. Looking at the packs, I feel in the front row there's just no telling what England will rock up. Cole has been strangely weaker at scrum of late as has Marler. Possibly due to the lack of Dylan Hartley. However, Wales are also lacking slightly in this area. Jenkins has been subject to scrummaging yellow cards in the past two years and is susceptible to a French referee like Jerome Garces. It is likely he will have to play 80 minutes today with Aaron Jarvis providing his cover not normally packing down on the loosehead side. Baldwin has been immense since he locked down his position, whilst for Tomas Francis, this is the biggest test of the lot. He has to step up today. It's massive he performs. Even if we can get 40 strong minutes out of him before Lee enters the fray.
In the locks, I feel it is once again 50-50. We lose a lot at lineout time with no Luke Charteris but with Bradley Davies starting it's evident we are going to try and be confrontational and unforgiving. The battle between him and Lawes in that regard will be massive and whoever can be the biggest enforcer in this game will psychologically influence the mindset of the forward packs. Parling is an immense lineout operator and it is up to Alun Wyn Jones to get up there and put pressure on. I can't help but feel we will miss Charteris in our maul defence but hopefully the boys can negate this tactic.
In the back row, Wales are a more balanced unit. Lydiate was immense against Ireland in the warmup and I tip him to play himself into his grave for 50 minutes making hit after hit on the likes of Vunipola while Warburton goes and hunts ball. Faletau will be important in this regard as well as he is a good breakdown operator on his day. Robshaw can be counted on to get through his usual high tackle count and carry count but can he be dominant in his tackles and make the big yards? Can he get involved at the breakdown. I suspect England will have been working on this a lot during the week and expect they will put in a better performance at the breakdown.
Before the change, I had England down as the more settled combination and I feel that doesn't change too much. Farrell and Biggar are very similar players in that they are steady and solid and kick well. Biggar has developed his play making ability of the last 2 years and is a much better player for it. Still I do think they are quite tight and dropping Ford does take away a point of difference and some x-factor which with Joseph out shows us that England won't try and be creative and will play a similar direct game to Wales. It makes the contest even more interesting as it turns it into a clash of similar styles. At 9, Youngs is experienced but wasn't great last week and he might find Davies a hand full, as he is a tenacious and in your face. This will be his litmus test though for Davies and he needs to stand up, handle the pressure and make sure his kicking game is right on the money because Mike Brown will punish us if he kicks poorly.
In the centres, it we have a like for like contest. England are going to rely on Burgess' ability to get over the gainline and offload and Jamie Roberts needs to stand up and ensure he doesn't get a head of steam. People mistake Roberts for being one dimensional but he is far from that and has deft hands to go with the physicality. In combination with Scott Williams there is a lot of creativity between the two but whether they can rip through the brick wall of Burgess and Barritt is another thing. Barritt doesn't have a superb passing game but in a big game like this I doubt he will miss tackles.
Finally out wide, England have a clear edge for me. Amos is raw and Williams has barely played for months. North is a superb player but I really hope he gets involved off his wing. For England, if Brown gets some space and Wales kick poorly they will be punished. He is looking imperious right now, up there with his 2014 Six Nations form. Wales need to be clinical in this regard.
Contrary to what people think, I don't think there's much difference in the bench .Tipuric will make an obvious difference around 10 minutes into the second half, Charteris is a workhorse, Lee, if fit is an outstanding replacement for Francis and Ken Owens is just full of energy. The backs are slightly weak, but Priestland is a solid player on his day and looked good against Uruguay, whilst Lloyd Williams is quality if given the chance. The less said about Cuthbert the better though. England won't get huge impact from Goode but Ford and Wigglesworth will add tempo late in the game. Whether they have the players around them to really capitalise on this out wide is another question. Haskell always plays well against Wales and I'm glad he isn't starting instead Wood, while Launchbury and Vunipola will be strong.
It's a very tight contest and I can't wait. 3 years of waiting is nearly over. BRING. IT. ON!
Cymru am Byth.
