[2015 RWC] Pool A: England vs. Wales (26/09/2015)

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

UNITS

Front Row: Advantage England
Second Row: Evens. If Charteris was there I'd say Slight Advantage Wales
Back-Row: Slight Advantage Wales (only Slight because I don't massively rate Lydiate athough I can see he fits the gameplan)

Half-Backs: Clear Advantage Wales (Would have been slight if Youngs had played a little better last week)
Midfield: Clear Advantage Wales
Back 3: Slight Advantage England

Bench Forwards: Slight Advantage Wales
Bench Backs: Insipid all round

 

[ncurd]

Wales are obviously worried as they've already resorted to cheating
http://www.itv.com/rugbyworldcup/wales-warned-after-breaching-rugby-world-cup-rules

This is quite serious is it not? I mean some teams can't magically conjure up players who aren't vastly different timezones.

Added into the fact there are real penalties for not having correct prop cover (which everyone said Wales didn't have enough before they got injured).


----

Read Lancaster's comments RE Ford/Farrell selection I'm still baffled it basically says Farrell has always been number 1 and I can't really say why Ford has been dropped.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

UNITS

Front Row: Advantage England

Don't see that at all.
Marler is playing like he was a couple of seasons ago, before he learnt to scrum - still got a good workrate/loose play game, but not good in the scrum.
Youngs have never been much of a scrummager, or lineout guy - everything else great though.
Cole is playing at about 50% of what you'd expect from him in such an important environment.


Our front row will be better around the park (though Jenkins is still class), and on form they'd have Wales on toast in the scrum, but at the moment? Francis will ruin Youngs/Marler, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Jenkins vs Cole very even, with the Wales scrum in ascendency because of Francis/Lee.
They've also got Alun Wyn Jones and Bradley Davis in the donkey row, where we have a big hit specialist and a lineout specialist, both of whom are lightweight, especially compared to those two.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

This is quite serious is it not? I mean some teams can't magically conjure up players who aren't vastly different timezones.

Added into the fact there are real penalties for not having correct prop cover (which everyone said Wales didn't have enough before they got injured).


----

Read Lancaster's comments RE Ford/Farrell selection I'm still baffled it basically says Farrell has always been number 1 and I can't really say why Ford has been dropped.

You're right about Lancaster - it's like he's trying to change the record on who was first choice.
The whole thing falls apart under scrutiny, I mean he doesn't even address the fact that Ford has been dropped outright and Goode brought in instead.

 

[j'nuh]

Tom Youngs can carry.

Billy Vunipola is the only person who will carry well into traffic and set us up a nice gainline.

Tom Youngs is more for carrying when gaps have opened up.

Wood is a below-average international backrower in the carrying game, and for all he's good at, carrying is not one of Robshaw's finer assets either.

Which is why I was so keen for Ewers to play. He'll carry well into traffic.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Don't see that at all.
Marler is playing like he was a couple of seasons ago, before he learnt to scrum - still got a good workrate/loose play game, but not good in the scrum.
Youngs have never been much of a scrummager, or lineout guy - everything else great though.
Cole is playing at about 50% of what you'd expect from him in such an important environment.


Our front row will be better around the park (though Jenkins is still class), and on form they'd have Wales on toast in the scrum, but at the moment? Francis will ruin Youngs/Marler, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Jenkins vs Cole very even, with the Wales scrum in ascendency because of Francis/Lee.
They've also got Alun Wyn Jones and Bradley Davis in the donkey row, where we have a big hit specialist and a lineout specialist, both of whom are lightweight, especially compared to those two.

Maybe you're right.. I'm somewhat banking on Francis' inexperience counting and Jenkins getting carded
And with Cole..he's not beenquite there but he cam back so strongly from injury - it's only been a few games with England and I'm not ready to pronounce him as 'in a rut' just yet.

re. Wood - from where I was sitting, I thought Wood had a somewhat better game, but then looking at his stats it appears he gave away his customary 2 penalties as well... which overall contributed to our major problem agains Fijhi - lack of contionuity and momentum born from poor discipline and ball handling..

 

[thechosenfamily]

You're right about Lancaster - it's like he's trying to change the record on who was first choice.
The whole thing falls apart under scrutiny, I mean he doesn't even address the fact that Ford has been dropped outright and Goode brought in instead.

George Ford is in the replacements not dropped completly

England: Mike Brown; Anthony Watson, Brad Barritt, Sam Burgess, Jonny May, Owen Farrell, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw, Billy Vunipola.

Replacements: Rob Webber, Mako Vunipola, Kieran Brookes, Joe Launchbury, James Haskell, Richard Wigglesworth, George Ford, Alex Goode.

 

[Maverick1987]

Don't see that at all.
Marler is playing like he was a couple of seasons ago, before he learnt to scrum - still got a good workrate/loose play game, but not good in the scrum.
Youngs have never been much of a scrummager, or lineout guy - everything else great though.
Cole is playing at about 50% of what you'd expect from him in such an important environment.


Our front row will be better around the park (though Jenkins is still class), and on form they'd have Wales on toast in the scrum, but at the moment? Francis will ruin Youngs/Marler, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Jenkins vs Cole very even, with the Wales scrum in ascendency because of Francis/Lee.
They've also got Alun Wyn Jones and Bradley Davis in the donkey row, where we have a big hit specialist and a lineout specialist, both of whom are lightweight, especially compared to those two.

I fully expect a really good performance from our front row this weekend . Bottom line if you can't get pumped up for this game you never will . Really think if we aren't on top in the front row in this game then Brookes and Vunipola should start and maybe George

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

George Ford is in the replacements not dropped completly

England: Mike Brown; Anthony Watson, Brad Barritt, Sam Burgess, Jonny May, Owen Farrell, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw, Billy Vunipola.

Replacements: Rob Webber, Mako Vunipola, Kieran Brookes, Joe Launchbury, James Haskell, Richard Wigglesworth, George Ford, Alex Goode.

Wait what!? How did I get that confused!?
(thanks for pointing it out!)

My relief is pretty gigantic! I heard the word 'dropped' and thought that meant altogether.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

That could be said for the warm ups, where they're staking a claim for their shirts.
Or for the Fiji game - opening night of a home world cup with the eyes of the world on you.
I've seen exactly 0 progression in our front row, since the start of the warm ups, I don't see why they'd miraculously change now.

 

[j'nuh]

Oh god, I've just realised that if Burgess looks completely out of his depth, the only solution we have to solving it is a Barritt-Farrell centre partnership...

 

[ncurd]

You're right about Lancaster - it's like he's trying to change the record on who was first choice.
The whole thing falls apart under scrutiny, I mean he doesn't even address the fact that Ford has been dropped outright and Goode brought in instead.

Yup not been drooped outright but it's still inexplicable.

Farrell's MoM in the final was very dubious in my book his try he shouldn't of been on the pitch for (according to the citing commissioner) and I didn't really think he played that well anyway. Ford meanwhile was out on back foot by his forwards and had a drastically altered backline to the one he thought he was playing with minutes into the game. I just don't know if Farrell was no.1 why did Ford start Fiji & Ireland match as well as line up with the "first team" for France. If he'd been dropped after France I think it would of been acceptable. Plus what has Farrell done to really grab the shirt off Ford? Play well against a tired Fiji?

I hate calls like nepotism but it feels that way. TBH though I think Farrell has always been no. 1 in Lancaster's eyes it's just Ford hasn't given a categorical reason why he shouldn't start over Farrell. Overall if he's something like "we feel Farrell is a better defensive unit and need that against Wales, whilst Ford's attacking ability can used later in the game" we'd all feel a lot better about it.

 

[dullonien]

Not wholly satisfied with the Welsh team.

- Starting Francis makes sense, especially as he can come back onto the pitch if Lee's injury flares up again.
- Scott Baldwin at hooker is also the right choice. He's a physical guy, and his lineout has been excellent recently.
- I would have started Charteris to really pressure the English lineout, and make sure we secure our own.
- Miffed that Tipuric isn't starting. He's been one of the form players in the world leading up to the world cup. I suppose we do have some decent impact to come off the bench in the forwards in the shapes of Owens, Lee, Charteris & Tips.
- Glad that Davies got the nod at scrum half.
- Ecstatic that Amos is starting over Cuthbert, although I would have preferred if Morgan was on the bench instead of Cuthbert.

It could work out nicely though...

I'm going to back Scott Williams to have the biggest impact in this match. He's been in fine form, making plenty of inside and outside breaks. Barritt is a great one on one tackler, but I can see Williams getting on the outside of him all game.

 

[The Jones Boy]

Farrell's a good young player, he won't let England down.

 

[TobesHodges]

I know everyone is losing it over Ford, but he's probably being wrapped in cotton wool for Australia, if we're winning at 60 minutes, we'll probably only see him for the last 10.. The real bizarre is number 23, Should really have been Slade or Nowell, Goode should only be on the bench if Brown or Watson are injured or Ford or Farrell..

 

[thechosenfamily]

Wait what!? How did I get that confused!?
(thanks for pointing it out!)

My relief is pretty gigantic! I heard the word 'dropped' and thought that meant altogether.

:itsok:
To be fair you scared the bejesus out of me so I rushed of to check, thinking i'd missed something

 

[Yoshimitsu]

That could be said for the warm ups, where they're staking a claim for their shirts.
Or for the Fiji game - opening night of a home world cup with the eyes of the world on you.
I've seen exactly 0 progression in our front row, since the start of the warm ups, I don't see why they'd miraculously change now.

That's the way I see it too. When was the last time you'd have called the English scrum clearly dominant? To be honest I'm struggling to recall that. Especially without that prize idiot Hartley on board. I reckon parity is the best that can be hoped for. Marler is too keen to go in on an angle. If the ref picks it up early (you can guarantee the welsh mention it pre-match) he struggles. Cole is not doing anything spectacular either. I suspect that our attempts to include 8 jumpers due to a shonky lineout isn't helping either. Youngs scrumagging isn't his best feature. I like the guy but his physical size is a limiting factor.

I was hoping we were sandbagging to an extent in the warm ups. Keeping powder dry for challenges yet to come. It really didn't look like that when Fiji were pushing us about. This is the same Fiji that the famed Aussie scrummaging machine pretty much gave a hiding yesterday.

 

[Peat]

I see a lot of people saying Wales have missed a chance to really wreck England at the breakdown by not picking Warburton and Tipuric together. I'm questioning why people think Warburton can't ruin it all on his lonesome, particularly if Lydiate's doing all his donkey work for him.

While I'm sure I wouldn't be saying this if I was an England fan...I wouldn't panic over the selection. England still have every chance of winning this and I can guarantee there aren't any Welsh fans sitting back thinking 'well, this is in the bag now'. But I have to say the selection is bordering on bizarre and if England lose, Lancaster is going to be facing some serious sh...er, questioning. Questioning.

Now to wait for Wales' selection...fingers crossed for Samson's name on the team sheet...

The thing is, I've gone from thinking 'This is probably in the bag due to the injuries' to 'Can't call it'. Which is enough to make me feel panicky.

Interested to know what Twitter is saying - outrage? Shock? Anger?

This thing Hastings and others have said about lancaster panicking and Yoshmitsu above about a selection made in fear - whatever's going on here, I don't believe it's that.
The addition of Burgess to the backline means that overall it's NOT an outright conservative selection - it's just a strange one. Given that Barritt at 12 and Slade at 13 would have made more sense and in many ways been safer, I don't believe Lancaster has panicked - I think he's just plain wrong.

Peat is right of course - our best bet is to hope that Wales' prop situation is worse than our midfield one.

Yeah and no. On the one hand, trusting Burgess in a game this size - radical. On the other, reverting to a game plan of "Defend, bosh, hope" - conservative. Tearing up your previous plan at the last moment - radical. Ditching Ford's ability to have a 9/10 game for Farrell's likely 7/10 - conservative.

I'd agree that I wouldn't use the word conservative, but I can see why others might.

 

[j'nuh]

I see a lot of people saying Wales have missed a chance to really wreck England at the breakdown by not picking Warburton and Tipuric together. I'm questioning why people think Warburton can't ruin it all on his lonesome, particularly if Lydiate's doing all his donkey work for him.

Yeah, but Tipuric is a better breakdown operator than Warburton. He isn't as strong as Warburton when he gets over the ball, but his speed to the breakdown is immense. Either of them would have caused troubles to our breakdown, but both of them could have given a game-winning advantage in the breakdown.

Yeah and no. On the one hand, trusting Burgess in a game this size - radical. On the other, reverting to a game plan of "Defend, bosh, hope" - conservative. Tearing up your previous plan at the last moment - radical. Ditching Ford's ability to have a 9/10 game for Farrell's likely 7/10 - conservative.

I think it's conservative given the circumstances. Lancaster doesn't have Twelvetrees, Burrell or Tuilagi in the squad to call on, so he can't revert to any kind of type. Picking Burgess or Slade would be a departure from England's game plan, but it's enforced due to the injury to Joseph. So whatever Lancaster does now would be "radical" in the sense that this was a situation that wasn't really planned for.

I think the accusation of conservativism is that this team screams an attempt to win with negative tactics and a score of a multiple of 3. There's no way our ball is going to get effectively to our back three with that 10-12-13 combination.

 

[Peat]

Yeah, but Tipuric is a better breakdown operator than Warburton. He isn't as strong as Warburton when he gets over the ball, but his speed to the breakdown is immense. Either of them would have caused troubles to our breakdown, but both of them could have given a game-winning advantage in the breakdown.


I think it's conservative given the circumstances. Lancaster doesn't have Twelvetrees, Burrell or Tuilagi in the squad to call on, so he can't revert to any kind of type. Picking Burgess or Slade would be a departure from England's game plan, but it's enforced due to the injury to Joseph. So whatever Lancaster does now would be "radical" in the sense that this was a situation that wasn't really planned for.

I think the accusation of conservativism is that this team screams an attempt to win with negative tactics and a score of a multiple of 3. There's no way our ball is going to get effectively to our back three with that 10-12-13 combination.

If he hasn't planned for the injury of Joseph, he's the biggest idiot this side of the Milky Way. It will look radical to us because it involves new players and we haven't seen it before, but plans must have been made.

Besides, all of that is completely irrelevant if the various reports that Burgess was in the team before Joseph was even injured are true. This isn't Plan B for the match, this is Plan A.