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[2014 Mid-Year Tests] England

Those are Opta stats...

You might be confused because if he goes to jackal and a penalty is awarded for holding on then statistically it is recorded as a turnover conceded by the player who was holding on - not a TW for Seymour.
The TW stat if for instances where the ball is taken cleanly and it's "play on".
 
Rugby stats are confusing...

I don't know if I am reading these right so the second row (Ashton as an example) 4.76 means carries per game right ? So the second row is per game ? Also with Ashton he plays in a team which doesn't have the ball all that much and doesn't run into traffic, so he isn't going to beat defenders- as other people have said he is there to finish off moves, he doesn't do the hard stuff. Even though he has more passes, offloads and assist. The stats to me show how good Yarde is though, an absolute animal on the wing.

Also a Tuilagi - Burrell comparison would be interesting


EDIT just seen the comment about averages thanks Rat

And that, in a nutshell, is my issue with him. He is very good at doing what is a very attacking basic skill for a winger. That in itself is not exactly cause of celebration.
 
Also with regards to Ashton, is he doing anything that another winger couldn't do just as well, if not better in the same setup?
 
Swings and roundabouts isn't it?

All very well having a winger who beats players & makes yards only to go missing when you need your gasman/finisher.

He suits Sarries game plan and is playing well within it... Like I said does that mean it'll transfer? Maybe not but there is nothing to say the others stats will either.

It will all come down to what England are looking to do
 
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There we go: not comprehensive but a fair few guys...
 
Right a couple of things
-May's stats are pretty good but he will have to move to 14 because Yarde has him beat
-If we were picking on stats Fearns has to be in the mix, along with Haskell who makes a ridiculous amount of tackles on average. Also I think Fearns is the 6 a lot of people wanted who can carry like an 8 and hit like a 6
-I know that the stats aren't on here but I would like to see lineout % and scrum penalties, for such a big guy Wilson carrying isn't impressive
-Tuilagi is an absolute animal but as everyone says no one see's the ball past him, 20 passes in 620 minutes is poor.
-Ford and Cipriani are both competent defenders

Cheers for these Rat
 
stats whilst useful don't tell you everything... in isolation they are just a record of events, there isn't enough detail to say someone is better than someone else.

They don't show the detail of the events - tackle count doesn't show the effectivness of the tackle, passes doesn't show the effectivness of the pass. what was the end out come of Yardes and Watsons yards compared to Ashtons, how many of Ahstons runs ended with trys for him or someone else?

For Example Owen Farrell has missed the most tackles in the HCup this seaosn out of any player - no one would ever question his defence.

Where they are really useful for coaches is comparing a players performance over a sequence of games. Why did his tackle rate drop off in that game and so on...
 
These stats can only inform a player's ability within a team, rather than their overall ability. If Robshaw played for Gloucester and Kvesic played for Quins, we'd be seeing totally different stats for those two.

The one thing that stands out for me, is how well Yarde has done for a team so far down the league.
 
sorry that comes accross as a bit ungrateful, it's still cool to see all these stats compared.
 
Clearly - I was under the assumption that everyone here was capable of interpreting stats correctly.
Assuming that most people aren't going to judge a player that they haven't actually watched before - the stats are actually invaluable.
Taken over the course of a season they give a clear representation of what a player is likely to do in any given game - for me 22 games is long enough.
That's why I've included the minutes played - because Will Fraser's stats are not going to give as accurate a representation of his game.
...Expecting Ashton to run more metres than Roko in any given game would be silly given the disparity in their season's average.

As was discussed on the previous page - the stats of Robshaw and Kvesic serve to explain the styles their teams have been playing and what role they play in that.

- May can't move to 14 IMO - he's a pure left winger.
- This is where interpretation of the stats gets interesting...
Wilson's carrying is good - but we haven't really used our tight 5 as carriers this season and he's been doing a lot more defensive work.
That coupled with the large amount of mauling we've done has meant he hasn't carried as much - I'd actually say his carrying is pretty damn good - as we saw in his break vs Wales and last year vs the BaBaas.
His scrummaging is far and away the strongest of our TH's too.
- I'll have a look and see what set-piece stats are available.

A couple of things to note:

- There are no stats available for the game Sarries lost to Irish. Although I think that only effects George.
- Ed Slater played about half of his games at 6.
- Burrell played most of the season at 12.
 
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May has played quite a bit of centre this season - I reckon he'd be able to play 11. Id certainly choose him over Ashton, but Rokoduguni would be my first choice.
 
Great work Rats! Really useful. Just one preliminary thing to highlight would be that Danny Cipriani has a lower missed tackles per game count that Owen 'solid as a rock' Farrell and has made more tackles per game than Farrell or Ford.

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Point taken, but to answer your questions with another, what kind of missed tackles?

Okay that doesn't really make sense. Basically, while there are various 'flavours' of tackle, a missed tackle is a missed tackle whichever way you look at it.
 
it does make sense yes.

But again - depends on how/where the tackle is and on who - also depends on when the tackle occured? Was it in a game that Sarries had already won, a game in which farrell was carrying an injury and so on (this works in both directions - same rules/caveats apply for Ciprianin and Ford).

This is why stats are great for performance comparison but not so great for inter-player comparison. They are useful but by no means the only guidline (not that anyone is saying they are).
 
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Exactly - neither Ford or Cips are smashing guys.

Both Sarries and Sale are more defensive than Bath so they are going to make more tackles than Ford because they spend more time without possession.
The difference in number between Cips and Farrell could be put down to people targeting Cips as a weak defender.
The higher proportion of missed tackles from Farrell can also be explained by Sarries defensive pattern - which encourages individials to shoot out of the line to pressurise the opposition behind the gain-line... which inherently leads to missed tackles.
The intention in those instances is to spoil the opposition attack - not necessarily to complete a tackle.

From what I understand of both team's styles of play - I would say that Ford is probably a better technical defender.
But Cips has the advantage of being 10kg~ heavier. Not really much between them in that regard, for me.
The higher number of turnovers from George might tip the balance slightly in his favour.
 
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On Eastmond - Burrell......

They both make the same amount of metres but with Kyle carrying just over half as many times.
With these stats in mind Kyle also beats significantly more defenders and makes more clean breaks.
Eastmond passes a huge amount more than Burrell.
Burrell makes more offlaods but Eastmond makes more assists.
Eastmond makes many more tackles and misses significantly less.
Eastmond concedes alot less turnovers but Burrell does make turnovers which Eastmond does not.

One way contest based solely on stats. Although I admit that as a fan I am biased but Eastmond to me is a much better IC than Burrell and perfect for Tuilagi (who I think Lancaster, and me to be fair) see as the long term OC.
 
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Exactly - neither Ford or Cips are smashing guys.

Both Sarries and Sale are more defensive than Bath so they are going to make more tackles than Ford because they spend more time without possession.
The difference in number between Cips and Farrell could be put down to people targeting Cips as a weak defender.
The higher proportion of missed tackles from Farrell can also be explained by Sarries defensive pattern - which encourages individials to shoot out of the line to pressurise the opposition behind the gain-line... which inherently leads to missed tackles.
The intention in those instances is to spoil the opposition attack - not necessarily to complete a tackle.

From what I understand of both team's styles of play - I would say that Ford is probably a better technical defender.
But Cips has the advantage of being 10kg~ heavier. Not really much between them in that regard, for me.
The higher number of turnovers from George might tip the balance slightly in his favour.

*Nods*

Yep.

Shameless plug, but did you see my video on the Sarries defensive system?
 
Gentlemen, your first five should never be 'smashing' guys in the tackle.
Dan Carter doesn't smash anyone.
Text book bootlace tackling is the order of the day and Carter hardly ever misses but trying to smash people?
Leave that to the big lumps in the pack or further outside.
The first five has more important jobs than 'smashing' an opponent in the tackle.
Developing the back line moves, tactical kicking, place kicking, as long as the first five is not a defensive liability, like say Aussie Quaid Cooper or Wales Rhys Priestland, then thats plenty.

I vote for Cipriani to get another go at the job.
First up against the AB's away from home is a big ask for whoever gets the nod at 10.
 
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Oh yeah, don't get me wrong, I have an appreciation for statistics. After all, I am currently working as a researcher on national statistics. :p

But making informed inferences from these statistics is incredibly difficult. My two main concerns are in arbitrariness (and limitations) and assumptions made:

1. Arbitrariness. Using these statistics to judge how "good" a player is in order for national selection necessitates a somewhat arbitrary decision as to what "good" would look like in the statistics. (Usually, statistics are better at quantifiable things like income, survival rate, obesity rate etc., not quality of a player.) One person might say that a high meters made figure for a front rower is impressive. Another might say that it's indicative that that particular front rower is avoiding tight carries (usually made for minimal ground, but important in building momentum between phases). Take Dave Wilson - we've seen him make great carries for England and Bath, yet his meters made isn't anywhere near as high as Sinckler's. Perhaps Wilson is more inclined to be taking on the important carries in the tight? Which is why these statistics are also limited: to make a full assessment of the impact of the carries made by players, we would want the different types of carries quantified. Number of meters made from tight carries, from carries in the backline, for carries on the edge of the contact zone, for carries taken in the back three etc. We are also missing important statistics such as number of rucks hit. What if, for example, Wood had an absurdly high number of rucks hit comparative to the rest? He has what appears to be weaker statistics than the other backrowers shown, but perhaps his value to the Saints comes from a statistic not actually given? How do you even quantify "slowing the ball down at the contact zone", an important aspect to Kvesic's game?

2. Assumptions made. The biggest assumption being that we can compare players across different teams, without factoring in that they play for different teams. Kvesic is better at the contact zone than his turnovers won column suggests - it's that Gloucester being constantly on the back foot with a miserable defensive record that doesn't allow him to provide the statistics of others. He's (and May from the backs) also given away the most turnovers of the backrowers - probably more to do with his team not giving him the support, than an intrinsic trait of him to cough up possession. The next biggest assumption is that players play in their given position all season. A winger-fullback should be expected to post different statistics to both wingers and fullbacks. To compare a winger-fullback with a winger or fullback may lead to fallacious inferences.

I would suggest that these statistics would be useful for looking at individual trends, rather than comparing players head-to-head. For example, as a Bath coach, I'd see that Ford is making a ton of meters, but also that he's been turned over a lot. This might be used as evidence to inform that he's running away from support, getting isolated, or his team aren't doing enough to support him, and take action. But I would say that the statistics are too limited to make any serious head-to-head comparisons. Although some can be made. As I've said, Yarde's stats are impressive enough to stand out for a player so far down the division. Enough for me to say he's obviously better than the other candidates? I don't think there's enough evidence. But it's certainly eye-catching.
 
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