[2014 Mid-Year Tests] England

[ratsapprentice]

That all goes without saying.

But in actual fact certain stats are remarkably clear indicators of quality for certain positions.
A quick example...

The current top five players in Super Rugby for Defenders Beaten:

Alapati Leiua: 39
Charles Piutau: 36
Julian Savea: 36
Malakai Fekitoa: 34
Ben Smith: 31

For Clean Breaks:

Israel Folau: 16
Nemani Nadolo: 14
Alapati Leiua: 14
Julian Savea: 14
Pat McCabe: 13

In my opinion when combined the metres made, defenders beaten and clean breaks stats are actually a fairly accurate indicators of attacking quality.
Not all stats are applicable to every position - but to suggest that there aren't clear, significant relationships between "quality" and certain stats is simply wrong.

 

[goodNumber10]

Gentlemen, your first five should never be 'smashing' guys in the tackle.
Dan Carter doesn't smash anyone.
Text book bootlace tackling is the order of the day and Carter hardly ever misses but trying to smash people?
Leave that to the big lumps in the pack or further outside.
The first five has more important jobs than 'smashing' an opponent in the tackle.
Developing the back line moves, tactical kicking, place kicking, as long as the first five is not a defensive liability, like say Aussie Quaid Cooper or Wales Rhys Priestland, then thats plenty.

I vote for Cipriani to get another go at the job.
First up against the AB's away from home is a big ask for whoever gets the nod at 10.

don't think anyone says he should be smashing, but solid is a different matter.

Carter and Cruden and Barrett are all solid defenders.

 

[goodNumber10]

That all goes without saying.

But in actual fact certain stats are remarkably clear indicators of quality for certain positions.
A quick example...

The current top five players in Super Rugby for Defenders Beaten:

Alapati Leiua: 39
Charles Piutau: 36
Julian Savea: 36
Malakai Fekitoa: 34
Ben Smith: 31

For Clean Breaks:

Israel Folau: 16
Nemani Nadolo: 14
Alapati Leiua: 14
Julian Savea: 14
Pat McCabe: 13

In my opinion when combined the metres made, defenders beaten and clean breaks stats are actually a fairly accurate indicators of attacking quality.
Not all stats are applicable to every position - but to suggest that there aren't clear, significant relationships between "quality" and certain stats is simply wrong.

Don't think anyone is saying there isn't a direct relation between the two, but taking stats in isolation imho is interesting but misleading.

 

[goodNumber10]

sorry, i realise i'm coming accross as a bit voiciferous on this one... it's not that i don't think the stats are a great indicator of people's ability etc... but i don't think presented out of context they truly reflect what happens on a rugby pitch.

going back to ashton, i think he's playing well, you don't. The stats would back you up on that aspect, so why am i seeing something that others aren't? This is what i'm trying to convey, that we all see things in different players and either rate it or not - stats can't get that accross.

 

[nickdnz]

A phrase I always like is "A statistician is someone who can draw a mathematically precise line between an unwarranted assumption, and a foregone conclusion".

That said you tend to get a reasonable indicator of how a player is performing based on statistics (when they are correct which I'm often a bit skeptical of rugby ones, particularly when they don't support my argument...). You are right in some senses, a player who passes the ball 38 times seems like he would be a good distributor - but if he passes it to the wrong player all the time the stats don't tell you that. A player could make 20 tackles a game, but the runner could always make it 5m past the advantage line. There are subtleties that of course statistics miss out on - you could always be the player who passes to the guy credited with the assist.

However I'd still take many wingers over Chris Ashton...

 

[ratsapprentice]

I know... look - the point is that the stats are beneficial if you have already watched and analysed the games and players without them.

I didn't post the stats and then promptly declare that I had solved all of our selection issues.
Look through... if you find anything notable that could prompt some discussion/analysis then bring it up!
If not - ignore them.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

A stat I feel might be useful to add is meters per carry on average. Stats may not be entirely reliable but I think in particular with Yarde they show the quality of the player. He's in a relatively poor team yet is getting some great numbers. This is including recovering from injury I assume? You can't get stats like that in London Irish and not be a good player.

Also interesting with Tuilagi, an absolute beast in the stats (which reflect reality quite well I think) but his passing game is still his weakness. However on the flip side, what if all his passes have been after breaking through the gain line? Every pass would be more valuable whereas hospital passes to your own team add nothing, infact they are worse than not passing.

I also feel May is one of those players who needs to "click". I keep feeling he can be deadly but it just isn't quite working. Brown clicked for us this year and it really showed.

 

[ratsapprentice]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/ru...t-Lancaster-names-squad-Barbarians-match.html

Interesting article - it's reiterating the idea that Cips will probably only play in the Barbarians game and not tour.
Given the DM's record It's distinctly possible.

And:

Among the players who will come into camp at the Lensbury Club on Sunday will be Gloucester centre Billy Twelvetrees, who Lancaster is 'hopeful' will recover from an ankle injury to play a role in the tour.

Burns will also be included according to the BBC.

 

[goodNumber10]

I know... look - the point is that the stats are beneficial if you have already watched and analysed the games and players without them.

I didn't post the stats and then promptly declare that I had solved all of our selection issues.
Look through... if you find anything notable that could prompt some discussion/analysis then bring it up!
If not - ignore them.

Absolutely! I'm not questioning the stats, or you posting them, so sorry if that's how it's coming accross.

I'm merely pointing out in the various discussions the stats have prompted that you can't justify selection purely on the figures, you can't say it categorically proves one thing or the other except for they did that over the course of the season - nor can you justify selection by not using them. Or say someone is particularly one way because they have a high carry stat, and so on..

The Defensive Stats for Ford, Cip's and Farrell don't tell me that Cipriani is a better defender because he has more tackles or that Farrell is weak in defence because he has more missed tackles it just tells me Cipriani made more tackles and Farrell missed more - to me it's where the tackles occur and their influence on the game.

For example Cipriani is a fantastic cover tackler due to his blistering pace - Farrell isn't, but his front line defence is a lot better. So Cipriani's ctackle rate could be inflated because he's making easier cover tackles.

Would be interesting to see this against individual games in some way, see where the high workloads were, and where the averages build up.

 

[goodNumber10]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/ru...t-Lancaster-names-squad-Barbarians-match.html

Interesting article - it's reiterating the idea that Cips will probably only play in the Barbarians game and not tour.
Given the DM's record It's distinctly possible.

And:



Burns will also be included according to the BBC.

I said Burns would probably go. In firness i think that might be unfair/harsh on cipriani if Lancaster is truly selecting on from.

 

[ratsapprentice]

Guardian suggesting LCD and Slade will be involved.

At this point it's still unclear as to who is going where - whether they are just in for the BaBaas game or for the tour.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

If Burns and Slade go to NZ over Cipriani I'll spew.

Burns has been hands down the worst 10 in the premiership this year - Slade has potential but is pretty flakey at the moment and his kicking has been poor-to-very-poor, for the most part.

 

[The Jones Boy]

Cipriani has been a solid defender this season.
He should be going to NZ.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

When I watch cipriani I know why he doesn't get many missed tackles?

Because he chooses not to tackle! Every time I've seen him play this year he just stays off tackles. I think ford is a much better defender because he gets stuck in.

Ciprianis defence has improved but his mentally over defence hasn't got any better from what I'v seen. Is still take him and see if it improves for England!

 

[TRF_Olyy]

When I watch cipriani I know why he doesn't get many missed tackles?

Because he chooses not to tackle! Every time I've seen him play this year he just stays off tackles. I think ford is a much better defender because he gets stuck in.

Ciprianis defence has improved but his mentally over defence hasn't got any better from what I'v seen. Is still take him and see if it improves for England!

I sound like a broken record, but you're wrong.
He's not decking people like Farrell, but he doesn't shy out of (m)any tackles (there's one or two I can think of where he probably could've tried a bit harder for - e.g. Floods try at our place the other week, where he left it all for Tuitupou who was too far away to be effective - yet took down Mulipola in a different phase).
He's made over twice as many tackles this season as Farrell.
He's made only 7 less than Ford, yet played over 5hrs less rugby.






BBC are reporting Cipriani and Burns are both in the initial squad announcement - the squad won't include any players from Bath, Quins, Tigers, Sarries and Wasps as they've still got games to play this season. No word, yet, who's a BaaBaas player and who's a touring player - are the two mutually exclusive, or will there be some crossover (like last year?) or will it be a completely separate side?

 

[TheSaffycen]

I'm assuming no Saints players as well ? So I guess a Glos/Sale/Exeter + Yarde mix

 

[ratsapprentice]

AFAIK the BaBaas side will be almost totally isolated from the touring squad - resting protocols and all that...

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I'm assuming no Saints players as well ? So I guess a Glos/Sale/Exeter + Yarde mix

Woops, yeah - Saints players too.

AFAIK the BaBaas side will be almost totally isolated from the touring squad - resting protocols and all that...

Thinking about it, I'm sure someone (Peat?) said that England are travelling down to NZ before the BaaBaas game, so I imagine any players in the BaaBaas game would either not tour, or only really be in contention for the mid-week game down under.


Apparently it's about 15 players being named today, so I'd imagine (baring in mind a good number of these won't go down under) something like:

K.Brookes,
H.Thomas,
D.Cipriani,
E.Stooke,
F.Burns,
B.Twelvetrees(?),
J.May,
C.Sharples,
H.Trinder,
M.Kvesic,
M.Yarde,
H.Slade,
S.Hill,
T.Johnson,
L.Cowan-Dickie,


Crazy, considering how sh*t Gloucester have been, that so many of their players could/should be in contention for England.

 

[Patchey]

Got to side firmly with Olly on this. Cipriani is a decent defender, but obviously not to the high standard we've all come to expect having Jonny and then Fazlet as our mains 10s for most of the last decade and a half! The stats suggest he missed less tackles than our premier defensive ten and that he made plenty as well. If you watch him play he obviously, as GN10 has said, doesn't smash people like Farrel does and I'll admit he does sometimes stand off tackles a bit. However if you watch virtually any other international standard 10 they do the same! Toby Flood has never smashed people back in tackles and I've seen him stand off tackles and let the back row cover him, yet we've never heard any serious complaints about him being a defensive weak link. Same does for the likes of Sexton, Biggar, Steyn and ever Dan Carter. I don' think you'd ever question any of them defensively, but they certainly aren't known for flattening anyone who runs at their channel like Fazlet is.

Basically, I think its unfair on Cips to suggest his defending so far hasn't been up to scratch, especially when the consensus seems to be the Ford's defense is fine yet there the stats and just watching games suggest they're both roughly equal. Could it be that they both turn out to be weak at international level? Absolutely. But to me the evidence so far suggests they're both competent defenders and will bring a huge amount to our attacking game. It'll be a real shame if Cips only makes the BaBaas squad.


I'll stop going on about this now!

EDIT:
Probably a good chance of Scott Wilson being in the BaBaas squad as well? I guess Dan Robson will be in there as well. I really hope that at least some of the fringe guys likely to be names for the 1st June game travel.

Also, just on the RFU Twitter https://twitter.com/EnglandRugby/status/466880122478682112. Says the initial training group for the tour AND the BaBaas game is being announced today, so safe to assume a good chunk of the names released will be going to NZ?

 

[goodNumber10]

anyone read this in the TORYGRAPH?

Tom Wood ont he fixture clash.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/ru...hat-will-hit-England-tour-of-New-Zealand.html