Who could claim an upset win?

[Jbobo]

Sigh. Enjoy the World Cup lads, hope England do well, or you lot will look right ***** from what I've seen over the past 6 months and further from half the Englishman on here.

Have a good'n!

 

[goodNumber10]

Why not argue back instead of trying to mock people for having an opposite opinion?

PS, Ashton and May aren't starting wingers, and Eastmond isn't our starting 12.

there really isn't any argument to be had... the point is that the perception of England only being a forward dominating team that grinds others down is as outdated as the belief the World is Flat. Yes they can do it, but if anything they've actually struggled to dominate and create quick go forward ball and have relied on young backs doing the job for them.

 

[Raggs]

Sigh. Enjoy the World Cup lads, hope England do well, or you lot will look right ***** from what I've seen over the past 6 months and further from half the Englishman on here.

Have a good'n!

Just because we believe our backline is a better attacking force than Wales' doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to do better when it comes to the RWC, better attacking backlines have lost plenty of games (England vs Aus in the AIs for instance).

And to jump back to the actual topic, believing that Wales is the most likely to be upset by Fiji doesn't mean everyone thinks Wales is awful, simply that the scheduling is setup to give Wales a very short turnaround after a very tough match, and given you already have a couple of injuries, depth may be against you.

 

[goodNumber10]

Just because we believe our backline is a better attacking force than Wales' doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to do better when it comes to the RWC, better attacking backlines have lost plenty of games (England vs Aus in the AIs for instance).

And to jump back to the actual topic, believing that Wales is the most likely to be upset by Fiji doesn't mean everyone thinks Wales is awful, simply that the scheduling is setup to give Wales a very short turnaround after a very tough match, and given you already have a couple of injuries, depth may be against you.

i'm not sure anyone has said that England have categorically got a better backline - certainly no one said man for man they were better - the point is they aren't the least dangerous back line out of the Top 3 of that pool as they've been far more efficient with ball in hand than both Australia and Wales in recent times.

 

[arry nordy key]

Aside from the bickering and back to the thread ***le...

I'm surprised there has only been one mention for Georgia. I think it is hard to say how Argentina will go as it is has been a strange cycle for them since 2011 (lots of brave losses in RC with a few hammerings, playing 2nd string sides against summer tourists and looking undercooked and a patched side in many autumn internationals).
Georgia have a record of matching big teams until 40/50 minutes and then falling away but are able to prepare for this RWC far better than they could for any regular tests and unlike in 2011 they don't have any silly 3 day turnarounds. This time round they are going to Poland a'la Gatland for Cyrotherapy and 'old school' hard work. They play Tonga in their first match, and then 6 days later have Argentina on the same ground (Kingsholm - some kind of home advantage?). Argentina will be on a 5 day turnaround from the NZ opener and I would be very surprised if Argentina just roll over for NZ with an eye on Georgia. i thought Kingsholm as a pitch was quite poor this season, esp. for scrums - sandy/grainy, which might play into their hands for many re-sets, but it also makes it a harder pitch for running rugby, so how N Owens and JP Doyle interpret and let things flow in both games could be important.

But at 66/1 to make the quarters, I'd say they are worth a punt. And they have pushed Ireland/France close before... but maybe I'm getting ahead of myself!

I think there is a really good chance of seeing a team reach the quarters that hasn't before (or recently) and I hope it happens. Samoa, Japan, Tonga, Georgia, Italy all have realistic chance I think.

 

[Raggs]

Georgia is an interesting pick looking at it that way. But Georgia only get 6 days after facing Tonga, who they will want to beat, and will be far more physical than NZ for Arg I'd guess.

 

[goodNumber10]

Georgia is an interesting pick looking at it that way. But Georgia only get 6 days after facing Tonga, who they will want to beat, and will be far more physical than NZ for Arg I'd guess.

Georgia have absolutely no chance of beating either Argentina or NZ, the rest of the group is Tonga and Namibia who they could conceivably finish above, but the chance they will make the quarter finals are almost zero.

Argentina will be off the back of a RC, will have just come out of a long camp, will have played a warm up game against Leicester and will be fit and ready to challenge NZ. They will beat all three Tier 2 nations comfortably.

Pool C is the least likeliest pool to have an upset.

The likeliest biggest upset in this World CUP will be Italy getting out of Pool D (meaning Ireland or France miss out) and Samoa getting out of Pool B (meaning Scotland miss out)

Followed by Fiji getting out of Pool A at the expense of two of the biggest teams in the rold.

 

[arry nordy key]

Georgia have absolutely no chance of beating either Argentina or NZ, the rest of the group is Tonga and Namibia who they could conceivably finish above, but the chance they will make the quarter finals are almost zero.

Argentina will be off the back of a RC, will have just come out of a long camp, will have played a warm up game against Leicester and will be fit and ready to challenge NZ. They will beat all three Tier 2 nations comfortably.

At RWC 2011 Argentina v Georgia ended 25-7, hardly a blowout. Until 60 mins the score was 8-7. Add into the mix that for that game Georgia had a 4 day turnaround compared to Argentina's 7 day.

This time round Argentina will have a 5 day break from NZ and Georgia a 6 day break from Tonga. I know islander teams have this 'physical' image, but I just can't fathom how a team wouldn't be more physically expended from playing against number 1 ranked team v number 12. It seems as though there is an emphasis on fitness with Georgia this time round that hasn't been there before: http://tier2rugby.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/georgia-embark-on-urgent-fitness.html

Argentina are definitely strong favourites but because of their past 4 years I almost feel like I wouldn't be surprised by any performance from them - it could be great, it could be very mediocre. I could see them nicking it against NZ or reaching the SFs as a pool runner-up, but I also think if things aren't quite right for them that Georgia could upset them (we will know a lot more after their match on Friday). To say Georgia have no chance I think is pretty short sighted.

There is an unpredictability in all pools in this WC more than any previous, making it a great spectacle.

 

[goodNumber10]

At RWC 2011 Argentina v Georgia ended 25-7, hardly a blowout. Until 60 mins the score was 8-7. Add into the mix that for that game Georgia had a 4 day turnaround compared to Argentina's 7 day.

This time round Argentina will have a 5 day break from NZ and Georgia a 6 day break from Tonga. I know islander teams have this 'physical' image, but I just can't fathom how a team wouldn't be more physically expended from playing against number 1 ranked team v number 12. It seems as though there is an emphasis on fitness with Georgia this time round that hasn't been there before: http://tier2rugby.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/georgia-embark-on-urgent-fitness.html

Argentina are definitely strong favourites but because of their past 4 years I almost feel like I wouldn't be surprised by any performance from them - it could be great, it could be very mediocre. I could see them nicking it against NZ or reaching the SFs as a pool runner-up, but I also think if things aren't quite right for them that Georgia could upset them (we will know a lot more after their match on Friday). To say Georgia have no chance I think is pretty short sighted.

There is an unpredictability in all pools in this WC more than any previous, making it a great spectacle.

It's not really about the physicality of the Tongans though, it's the fact that the Argentinian players will be better conditioned and have better injury and recovery management (having better medical assistance) and be able to back up big games easier - in a way that a small nation like Georgia won't regardless of the 2 extra days recovery and their improving fitness levels.

In the Last world Cup Argentina were pretty much already through and just needed a win it was also Georgia's last hurrah so nothing to lose.

Argentina were also not playing in the Rugby Championship, so came into the World Cup cold this time out they play SA, NZ and Australia one month before the World Cup, they will already be battle hardened, for all the strides Georgia are making in World Rugby I don't see how they can back up from Tonga to Argentina.

 

[RedruthRFC]

and Samoa getting out of Pool B (meaning Scotland miss out)

Why would band 2 team Samoa (ranked 9 in the world) qualifying ahead of band 3 side Scotland (ranked 10 in the world) constitute an upset for any reason other than tradition?

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Why would band 2 team Samoa (ranked 9 in the world) qualifying ahead of band 3 side Scotland (ranked 10 in the world) constitute an upset for any reason other than tradition?

Mostly because Scotland have won 7/9 of their games against Samoa. Admittedly their most recent ones have all been close with the last actually a loss to Samoa. I agree though, Samoa can beat Scotland and it isn't really an upset except for the outdated view people have that Scotland isn't as bad as a tier 2 team.

 

[goodNumber10]

Why would band 2 team Samoa (ranked 9 in the world) qualifying ahead of band 3 side Scotland (ranked 10 in the world) constitute an upset for any reason other than tradition?

because it would be the first time they failed to qualify from their pool by losing to anyone who wasn't Tier 1 - Argentina were tier 1 i think in 2011

 

[RedruthRFC]

I did say other than tradition!

Come the time, it will be interesting to see how the bookies price that tie. I suspect that Scotland will start as marginal favourites as they are playing close to home with (presumably) more support and in more familiar conditions.

 

[goodNumber10]

I did say other than tradition!

ha, you did indeed, i completely missed that bit...

 

[dragos03]

Romania can win against Italy if our forwards can dominate them and we stay disciplined. Other possible upsets (btw, I don't consider Georgia beating Tonga or Romania beating Canada as an upset):
- Fiji are unpredictable and could win against anyone (or lose horribly)
- Samoa, USA and Japan are all capable of winning vs Scotland

 

[iINDOMINUSxx]

Romania can win against Italy if our forwards can dominate them and we stay disciplined. Other possible upsets (btw, I don't consider Georgia beating Tonga or Romania beating Canada as an upset):
- Fiji are unpredictable and could win against anyone (or lose horribly)
- Samoa, USA and Japan are all capable of winning vs Scotland

That one hurt, But its true depending on how we play. I think Canada could beat Italy too depending if Canada play really well.

 

[dragos03]

That one hurt, But its true depending on how we play. I think Canada could beat Italy too depending if Canada play really well.

I think Scotland remains the favourite in all those games but they could potentially lose any of them. Japan is probably the most dangerous opponent because of their well-disciplined team, Samoa has a lot of talent but they are not as constant.

Canada won't beat Italy because their forwards are just too weak and will get overpowered by the Italian ones. But as you said, if Canada plays really well and Italy has a bad day, it could happen.

 

[Kiwi_]

Australia could beat England.

 

[TheSaffycen]

Oz beating us would be upsetting, but not an upset.
With Scotland if they play like they did in the 6 nations than they won't make it out the group. If they play like they did last Autumn then they should manage to get 2nd.

 

[valley commando]

With the minnow nations having really improved their standard of play the last two world cups, some of them giving the big boys a huge fright along the way; which matchup in this year's Rugby World Cup group stages do you think has the best chance of producing an upset result this time around?

Samoa to bt Scotland
Japan to bt Scotland
Georgia to bt Argentina
Fiji to bt England