Who could claim an upset win?

[Peat]

Stats are pretty useless considering that most of England's tries are due to forward domination.

Quite. Platform matters. So too does what team faced on what day.

It's not an outrageous statement tbh. 11-14 the Welsh are better than us as a unit; sure, Joseph was awesome, but he's surrounded by flakiness and inconsistency, with a side order of now being far more closely marked. Do Ford's superior playmaking abilities and Brown's superior attacking abilities counteract that?

But I don't think it's by an appreciable margin though. England's backline is plenty strong enough for the task. I wish Fiji the best but I feel pretty sure they'll be taking three losses there assuming full strength teams.

 

[goodNumber10]

Stats are pretty useless considering that most of England's tries are due to forward domination. I believe Australia and Wales have more devastating runners and have proven more so than England the ability to counter and score from their own half, this doesn't mean England can't do it, of course they can. I just believe that Aus and Wales are better at it.

Stats are pretty useless unless you know what you're looking for.

England scored 18 tries in this years 6 nations, only 2 were scored in over 5 phases (over being 6 or more), joseph against Wales (20 phases) and Ford against Scotland (7). Only 2 were scored as a direct result of Forward dominance at the set piece: Vunipola vs Italy (peel) and Easter vs Italy (set and Drive) and one from a pick and go (Vunipola vs France).

So that leaves 14 tries scored in 5 phases or under (which doesn't indicate Forward dominance needed), in fact 13 of those were a direct result of Counter Attacks and 1st phase strike moves, with 10 of those tries coming from Counter attacks, 2 from 1st phase strike moves and one form a tap and go.

Here they are:


vs wales:

Watson try: 3 phases (grubber kick)
Joseph Try: 20 phases

vs italy
Vunipola: o phases (catch and peel)
jospeh: 0 phases (turn over & counter attack)
Youngs: 0 phases (tap and go)
Joseph: 0 phases (backline strike move)
Cipriani: 0 phases (turn over ball)
Easter: 0 phases (catch and drive)

vs Scotland
Joseph: 5 phases (counter attack)
Ford: 7 phases (then line break)
Nowell: 5 phases (counter attack)

vs France:
Youngs: 0 phases (counter attack)
Watson: 0 phases (counter attack)
Youngs: 1 phase (counter attack from try line, tap penalty in french 22)
Ford: 1 phase (counter attack then break by youngs)
Nowell: 1 phase (counter attack in French 22)
Vunipola: 5 phases (tap penalty and then pick and go)
Nowell: 0 phases (backs strike move)

On this subject of upsets, would it be fair to note that England have a pretty poor record of bottling it in the big matches?

Wales have a far poorer showing of consistency than England, England lost to France 1st game last year, and Ireland 3rd Game this year, they've only been in with a mathematical shout finishing 2nd in the Championship for the last 3 years - Wales have been far more inconsistent finishing 3rd (2015), 3rd (2014), 1st (2013) 1st (2012 - Grand Slam) and lost to Samoa and Japan.

Everything indicates that Wales peaked at the last world cup, they seem to be all or nothing men..

 

[ZeroTwo]

Namibia might do well. Despite the lack of pro players they recently pushed Canada very close. Not sure of they'll upset but think they have covered ground. Might not be purely there to make up numbers.

 

[Jbobo]

Stats are pretty useless unless you know what you're looking for.

England scored 18 tries in this years 6 nations, only 2 were scored in over 5 phases (over being 6 or more), joseph against Wales (20 phases) and Ford against Scotland (7). Only 2 were scored as a direct result of Forward dominance at the set piece: Vunipola vs Italy (peel) and Easter vs Italy (set and Drive) and one from a pick and go (Vunipola vs France).

So that leaves 14 tries scored in 5 phases or under (which doesn't indicate Forward dominance needed), in fact 13 of those were a direct result of Counter Attacks and 1st phase strike moves, with 10 of those tries coming from Counter attacks, 2 from 1st phase strike moves and one form a tap and go.

Here they are:


vs wales:

Watson try: 3 phases (grubber kick)
Joseph Try: 20 phases

vs italy
Vunipola: o phases (catch and peel)
jospeh: 0 phases (turn over & counter attack)
Youngs: 0 phases (tap and go)
Joseph: 0 phases (backline strike move)
Cipriani: 0 phases (turn over ball)
Easter: 0 phases (catch and drive)

vs Scotland
Joseph: 5 phases (counter attack)
Ford: 7 phases (then line break)
Nowell: 5 phases (counter attack)

vs France:
Youngs: 0 phases (counter attack)
Watson: 0 phases (counter attack)
Youngs: 1 phase (counter attack from try line, tap penalty in french 22)
Ford: 1 phase (counter attack then break by youngs)
Nowell: 1 phase (counter attack in French 22)
Vunipola: 5 phases (tap penalty and then pick and go)
Nowell: 0 phases (backs strike move)







Wales have a far poorer showing of consistency than England, England lost to France 1st game last year, and Ireland 3rd Game this year, they've only been in with a mathematical shout finishing 2nd in the Championship for the last 3 years - Wales have been far more inconsistent finishing 3rd (2015), 3rd (2014), 1st (2013) 1st (2012 - Grand Slam) and lost to Samoa and Japan.

Everything indicates that Wales peaked at the last world cup, they seem to be all or nothing men..

You saying your first sentence and then following with the stats and analysis you have provided is a little bit ironic. If you seriously think that a devastating backline equates directly to fewer phases and backs being able to finish off moves, then you're not grasping the point. Like Peat said, England have a capable back three, and one decent Center in Joseph, but i don't see the fire power that you see. I think with the style England play (very much kicking and forward based) they don't need these strike runners, they need competent finishers. How many of the tries actually resulted from players beating another individually? How many broke off from their own half and were scored with one or two phases? Wales do this regularly as do Australia. I'd actually say that at present (i've said before) England have the better teamwork and seem to be able to put phases better than Wales, however, Wales have the more capability from the loose counter. I am not going to go through every Welsh try in the past couple of years to prove it, as my opinion is reasonable enough. Wales seem to be relying at times on individual ability to beat a man, power and skill on the kick etc. Look through Wales's tries if you like and prove me wrong. England are good at finishing and converting moves and pressure, but i don't see them scoring from their sheer power and pace and off the offload as much as i see Wales and Australia. My point is that with a team like Fiji, who's defense is not always rock solid (to be polite) i think Wales have more going wide to create something off the cuff than England, i don't mind if you disagree, i wouldn't expect anthing else, but don't sit there and pretend England are impervious to defeat, or else you'll have a significant amount of egg on your face later this year. If Fiji sure up their defense and get stuck in the rucks and don't capitulate in the scrum, England won't be able to walk over them and may just have to create something from in their own half, I don't see that happen too often.

I don't see how England coming 2nd for four years in a row is better than coming 1st twice (with a grandslam) and 3rd twice? Consistency yes, but i am talking about the inability to win when the pressure is truly on. I think Wales have proved more so than England that they can handle the big occasions and i'd be worried about choking if i was England. You mention Samoa and Japan like a dig, yet England have lost to France twice in 4 years, whilst Wales have beaten them each time. *** for tat mate.

Wales may indeed be a little bit all or nothing, i'd agree. But then i'd also say that with this, comes the ability to go further in things that matter, like competitions. If you like your stats, you'll understand why i am optimistic wales have more than enough to handle this World cup...Do England?

Also Wales may have played some of their best rugby in 2011. Yet, they still managed two ***les and a grandslam, including a mauling of England 2 years ago. If we peaked in 2011, England peaked in 2003...

 

[goodNumber10]

You saying your first sentence and then following with the stats and analysis you have provided is a little bit ironic.

Not really, you challenged my points, so i backed them up with more data that further illustrates and proves what i'm saying.

You on the other hand countered with a diatribe of anecdotal rhetoric that you justified with the laughable "my opinion should be enough".

If you seriously think that a devastating backline equates directly to fewer phases and backs being able to finish off moves, then you're not grasping the point. Like Peat said, England have a capable back three, and one decent Center in Joseph, but i don't see the fire power that you see. How many of the tries actually resulted from players beating another individually? How many broke off from their own half and were scored with one or two phases?

Well I clearly understand it way better than you seem to. Especially considering I've just proven your point about England forward dominance creating chances for the backs to be fallacious at best.

Additionally I've just told you how many were scored in less than one phase. That's what 0 (zero) means. What didn't you understand?

Did you actually watch this years 6 Nations, because if you had you'd have seen the vast bulk of those tries were scored from in or around England's own half with Multiple men beaten.

Wales do this regularly

No more than any other side do. It's well documented that the vast majority of tries in the modern game come in low phase sequences or from Counter attack ball.

Wales are no more efficent with the ball on low phases than any other tier 1 team - in fact they are markedly less efficent.

as do Australia. I'd actually say that at present (i've said before) England have the better teamwork and seem to be able to put phases better than Wales, however, Wales have the more capability from the loose counter.

As i've just proven, no they don't.

I am not going to go through every Welsh try in the past couple of years to prove it, as my opinion is reasonable enough.

Of course why would you hang yourself out to dry like that by proving yourself wrong.

Wales seem to be relying at times on individual ability to beat a man, power and skill on the kick etc. Look through Wales's tries if you like and prove me wrong. England are good at finishing and converting moves and pressure, but i don't see them scoring from their sheer power and pace and off the offload as much as i see Wales and Australia.

do you actually watch any rugby other than wales vs XXXX?

My point is that with a team like Fiji, who's defence is not always rock solid (to be polite) i think Wales have more going wide to create something off the cuff than England, i don't mind if you disagree, i wouldn't expect anthing else,

As we saw with the NZ maori you don't take Fiji on at the open game you grind them down and play territory, make the game set piece and slow until they lose their shape, because their defence is actually pretty good.

but don't sit there and pretend England are impervious to defeat, or else you'll have a significant amount of egg on your face later this year..

You're making things up (again). I haven't said anything about England being impervious to defeat, i said it's more likely Wales lose to Fiji than England will because history illustrates that Wales struggle with Tier 2 nations more than England do, and precisely because England have the up front game (your lamenting) to suffocate the Fijians.

That's vastly different to what you're claiming i said.

I don't see how England coming 2nd for four years in a row is better than coming 1st twice (with a grandslam) and 3rd twice? Consistency yes, but i am talking about the inability to win when the pressure is truly on. I think Wales have proved more so than England that they can handle the big occasions and i'd be worried about choking if i was England. You mention Samoa and Japan like a dig, yet England have lost to France twice in 4 years, whilst Wales have beaten them each time. *** for tat mate.

France tier 1, Samoa and Japan tier 2. /the end.

BTW, England have only lost to France once since the last world cup, Wales have lost to England twice..

Wales may indeed be a little bit all or nothing, i'd agree. But then i'd also say that with this, comes the ability to go further in things that matter, like competitions. If you like your stats, you'll understand why i am optimistic wales have more than enough to handle this World cup...Do England?

Also Wales may have played some of their best rugby in 2011. Yet, they still managed two ***les and a grandslam, including a mauling of England 2 years ago. If we peaked in 2011, England peaked in 2003...

No, you managed 2 ***les, not 2 ***les and a grandslam - you won a grandslam in 2012, and won the ***le on maths 2013, then came 3rd twice... there is no stats to this it's fact.

What's England 2003 got to do with it? Talk about irrelevant points.

Time to block you again i think.

 

[Jbobo]

Not really, you challenged my points, so i backed them up with more data that further illustrates and proves what i'm saying.

You on the other hand countered with a diatribe of anecdotal rhetoric that you justified with the laughable "my opinion should be enough".



Well I clearly understand it way better than you seem to. Especially considering I've just proven your point about England forward dominance creating chances for the backs to be fallacious at best.

Additionally I've just told you how many were scored in less than one phase. That's what 0 (zero) means. What didn't you understand?

Did you actually watch this years 6 Nations, because if you had you'd have seen the vast bulk of those tries were scored from in or around England's own half with Multiple men beaten.




No more than any other side do. It's well documented that the vast majority of tries in the modern game come in low phase sequences or from Counter attack ball.

Wales are no more efficent with the ball on low phases than any other tier 1 team - in fact they are markedly less efficent.



As i've just proven, no they don't.



Of course why would you hang yourself out to dry like that by proving yourself wrong.



do you actually watch any rugby other than wales vs XXXX?



As we saw with the NZ maori you don't take Fiji on at the open game you grind them down and play territory, make the game set piece and slow until they lose their shape, because their defence is actually pretty good.




You're making things up (again). I haven't said anything about England being impervious to defeat, i said it's more likely Wales lose to Fiji than England will because history illustrates that Wales struggle with Tier 2 nations more than England do, and precisely because England have the up front game (your lamenting) to suffocate the Fijians.

That's vastly different to what you're claiming i said.




France tier 1, Samoa and Japan tier 2. /the end.



No, you managed 2 ***les, not 2 ***les and a grandslam - you won a grandslam in 2012, and won the ***le on maths 2013, then came 3rd twice... there is no stats to this it's fact.

What's England 2003 got to do with it? Talk about irrelevant points.

Time to block you again i think.

I'm sorry, i can't reply to each point in this. You're literally too dumb for me to handle.

Please do block me, and let's agree to disagree on anything and everything forever and ever.

Night

 

[psychic duck]

Wales have a far poorer showing of consistency than England, England lost to France 1st game last year, and Ireland 3rd Game this year, they've only been in with a mathematical shout finishing 2nd in the Championship for the last 3 years - Wales have been far more inconsistent finishing 3rd (2015), 3rd (2014), 1st (2013) 1st (2012 - Grand Slam) and lost to Samoa and Japan.

Everything indicates that Wales peaked at the last world cup, they seem to be all or nothing men..

Wales' peak was obviously the 30-3 game, it's been down since with England now overtaking.

Also the inconsistent results from winning Grand Slam to a losing streak late in the year is a characteristic of any side with poor depth. That's pretty obvious.

 

[Kiwi_]

Samoa vs South Africa for me. Going to be interesting.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

You saying your first sentence and then following with the stats and analysis you have provided is a little bit ironic. If you seriously think that a devastating backline equates directly to fewer phases and backs being able to finish off moves, then you're not grasping the point. Like Peat said, England have a capable back three, and one decent Center in Joseph, but i don't see the fire power that you see. I think with the style England play (very much kicking and forward based) they don't need these strike runners, they need competent finishers. How many of the tries actually resulted from players beating another individually? How many broke off from their own half and were scored with one or two phases? Wales do this regularly as do Australia. I'd actually say that at present (i've said before) England have the better teamwork and seem to be able to put phases better than Wales, however, Wales have the more capability from the loose counter. I am not going to go through every Welsh try in the past couple of years to prove it, as my opinion is reasonable enough. Wales seem to be relying at times on individual ability to beat a man, power and skill on the kick etc. Look through Wales's tries if you like and prove me wrong. England are good at finishing and converting moves and pressure, but i don't see them scoring from their sheer power and pace and off the offload as much as i see Wales and Australia. My point is that with a team like Fiji, who's defense is not always rock solid (to be polite) i think Wales have more going wide to create something off the cuff than England, i don't mind if you disagree, i wouldn't expect anthing else, but don't sit there and pretend England are impervious to defeat, or else you'll have a significant amount of egg on your face later this year. If Fiji sure up their defense and get stuck in the rucks and don't capitulate in the scrum, England won't be able to walk over them and may just have to create something from in their own half, I don't see that happen too often.

I don't see how England coming 2nd for four years in a row is better than coming 1st twice (with a grandslam) and 3rd twice? Consistency yes, but i am talking about the inability to win when the pressure is truly on. I think Wales have proved more so than England that they can handle the big occasions and i'd be worried about choking if i was England. You mention Samoa and Japan like a dig, yet England have lost to France twice in 4 years, whilst Wales have beaten them each time. *** for tat mate.

Wales may indeed be a little bit all or nothing, i'd agree. But then i'd also say that with this, comes the ability to go further in things that matter, like competitions. If you like your stats, you'll understand why i am optimistic wales have more than enough to handle this World cup...Do England?

Also Wales may have played some of their best rugby in 2011. Yet, they still managed two ***les and a grandslam, including a mauling of England 2 years ago. If we peaked in 2011, England peaked in 2003...

Last 6 nations England beat the most defenders, made the most clean breaks and ran furthest with ball in hand. We also had the player with the single highest numbers in those areas. What more do you want? I get the impression there is nothing that will make you change you mind...

 

[Chistera]

As for an upset World Cup win, I'd bet on latin teams: Argentina and France.
But Eastern Europeans teams with a solid scrum as Georgia and Romania could shake up any opponent should their forwards turn out to have a good day.

 

[Raggs]

Jbobo, let me make it simple for you. Our backs scored more tries, beat more defenders and made more breaks than their Welsh counterparts. And half our tries didn't reach even a 2nd phase, for the forwards to be able to generate that good platform.

 

[goodNumber10]

Jbobo, let me make it simple for you. Our backs scored more tries, beat more defenders and made more breaks than their Welsh counterparts. And half our tries didn't reach even a 2nd phase, for the forwards to be able to generate that good platform.

I wouldn't bother mate, he's absolutely away with the fairies - he seems to have stopped watching England circa 2003 and is basing his argument on two outdated sterotypes that don't describe the teams we are discussing in anyway.

 

[ncurd]

Also you say England loose in pressure games....I don't think the opener vs Fiji counts as one. A team that has never beaten us lowest margin of victory was 1988 by 7 points. The last time was in this cycle by 42 points.

If England loose have lost high quality opposition in pressure situations...not Italy or Scotland.

Not saying it can't happen it certainly can but Wales are the ones with history of being rubbish outside the 6 nations.

 

[goodNumber10]

Also you say England loose in pressure games....I don't think the opener vs Fiji counts as one. A team that has never beaten us lowest margin of victory was 1988 by 7 points. The last time was in this cycle by 42 points.

If England loose have lost high quality opposition in pressure situations...not Italy or Scotland.

Not saying it can't happen it certainly can but Wales are the ones with history of being rubbish outside the 6 nations.

England have lost 1 pressure game, the 2013 Grand Slam decider to a wales side coming off the back of their grandslam the year before and at it's peak... they then lost to France in the opening game of the 6nations and clawed their way back into contention (not pressure game) and Ireland mid tournament (not a decider). on both occasions they've gone into the final game with a mathematical chance of winning and came short this year and did everything they needed to the year before.

It's just fallacious to say England have a history of choking in this world cup cycle. They've only once been in a position to choke - they have on the other hand been very consistent with their 6 Nations results and recorded a couple of good wins over SH opponents and dominated the lower tier teams in a way that Wales have failed to do.

It's not impossible they will lose it's just unlikely they will lose to against a tier 2 side in the opening game of a home world cup.

 

[Jbobo]

Okay, England have a much more devastating back line and are much better than Wales.

I was blind by now I see, how in reasonable for me to think that wales have the more power in the backs.

I mean, just look at the first choice team head to head -

Care and youngs, easily better at scoring individual tries than Webb.

Ford, much better than BIggar.

Eastmond, Barrett and both **** all over Jamie Roberts.

Joseph and tuilagi much better attackers than Davies and Scott Williams (oh wait, tuilagi out as well as Davies)

Chris Ashton, Jonny may, Watson, no well - man they have twice the speed and power of North cuthbert and L Williams, how blind I was.

Mike brown and Alex Goode, crap all over Halfpenny and l Williams.

Egg on my face, I was away with the faries for even questioning these players who are clearly man for man better at creating individual tries on breaks.

England's forwards had nothing to do with most of the tries scored by th backs anyway. Seeing players beat defenders left right and center. I fdont care if Wales have struggled in the front 5, they still haven't scored as many tries, and that obviously means England have better backs. God I was sill there.

So embarrass, sowwy my English friends.

Hail the rose

 

[Raggs]

There you go, glad to see you've got it. And you didn't even need to name the English winger who made more breaks, beat more defenders and covered more meters than any other Englishman in your comparisons (and did all that in just 3 games, on the opposite wing that he usually plays).

 

[chippieolamus]

Okay, England have a much more devastating back line and are much better than Wales.

I was blind by now I see, how in reasonable for me to think that wales have the more power in the backs.

I mean, just look at the first choice team head to head -

Care and youngs, easily better at scoring individual tries than Webb.

Ford, much better than BIggar.

Eastmond, Barrett and both **** all over Jamie Roberts.

Joseph and tuilagi much better attackers than Davies and Scott Williams (oh wait, tuilagi out as well as Davies)

Chris Ashton, Jonny may, Watson, no well - man they have twice the speed and power of North cuthbert and L Williams, how blind I was.

Mike brown and Alex Goode, crap all over Halfpenny and l Williams.

Egg on my face, I was away with the faries for even questioning these players who are clearly man for man better at creating individual tries on breaks.

England's forwards had nothing to do with most of the tries scored by th backs anyway. Seeing players beat defenders left right and center. I fdont care if Wales have struggled in the front 5, they still haven't scored as many tries, and that obviously means England have better backs. God I was sill there.

So embarrass, sowwy my English friends.

Hail the rose

Why not argue back instead of trying to mock people for having an opposite opinion?

PS, Ashton and May aren't starting wingers, and Eastmond isn't our starting 12.

 

[Raggs]

Why not argue back instead of trying to mock people for having an opposite opinion?

PS, Ashton and May aren't starting wingers, and Eastmond isn't our starting 12.

Shh. Don't tell him that almost half the guys he named didn't even appear in the 6N.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Why not argue back instead of trying to mock people for having an opposite opinion?

PS, Ashton and May aren't starting wingers, and Eastmond isn't our starting 12.

Also May and Watson are faster than North and Cuthbert, and Ben Youngs is notorious for scoring individual tries - for all his faults he has a great eye for a quick tap, or cheeky snipe. I think most of his international tries have been from that.
I'd also argue that JJ is a better attacker than any Welsh centre.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Someone is more Saltier than my sock after watching Loose Women.