Wales vs England - 16/03/2013

[Peat]

Gods knows there are better scrummaging second rows than ours in international rugby, but the sudden improvement that happened every time we were able to drop Marler and bring in Corbisiero last year would suggest that the front row is at least as culpable.

p.s. Henry, how's Wasps scrum gone this season? My impression is its gone rather well, based on what I've caught, and the large number of people I've seen suggesting Swainston for higher honours. Would I be right in saying Launchbury has been at 4 for a lot of that?

 

[ratsapprentice]

Sure, I was just trying to make the point that swapping out our props is not the most efficient way to increase our scrummaging strength.
Having some semblance of balance in our selections is.

 

[Peat]

Sure, I was just trying to make the point that swapping out our props is not the most efficient way to increase our scrummaging strength.
Having some semblance of balance in our selections is.

If Corbs was fit it would be though. We've got two absolute greenhorns at loosehead, that's got a bigger bearing to me than whether we've got someone the size of Simon Shaw.

 

[ratsapprentice]

We have two young inexperienced props who have played very well in the loose, and partnered them with three "loosehead" (gonna use that term for the time being) locks.
If we have someone who is significantly better at scrummaging and equal to or greater than our two incumbents in the loose then by all means it would be, but I don't think we do.

 

[Crapspray]

Croft really has done well to get back into the starting XV so quickly. I hope, whatever he did in training to convince Lancaster to do so, he keeps it up at the weekend. Good to see the locks have made it through the injury scares, as well.

All in all just about the best team we could have expected to be put out. In ideal world Corbs would be at loosehead and Morgan at 8, not to mention the backs, but with the EPS currently available it could be a lot worse.

Oh, and scrum strength is going to be academic anyway. With Steve Walsh, and the Millennium Stadium's turf, they'll spend 90% of their time falling over. So perhaps Croft has been thrown in to help win lineouts after the inevitable penalty-fest.

 

[Peat]

We have two young inexperienced props who have played very well in the loose, and partnered them with three "loosehead" (gonna use that term for the time being) locks.
If we have someone who is significantly better at scrummaging and equal to or greater than our two incumbents in the loose then by all means it would be, but I don't think we do.

Well, not fit. Corbs is equal to either in the loose and significantly better at scrummaging... and a massive sicknote.

Also, if you're going to pick tight five players based on contribution in the loose - and I think you're being very generous to Marler - then it would be very difficult to leave out Parling or Launchbury. Each hits a ridiculously large number of rucks. I do not believe we have a tighthead lock who would offer a significant benefit in the scrum and hit the same number of rucks while running the lineout/racking up a blindside's tackle count.

 

[dullonien]

Thought a few of these are interesting. 10 key stats according to Wales Online:

1. Scrum. Wales have the edge at scrum time. Adam Jones and co have won 86% of their attacking scrums compared to England's 78%. Wales have also come out on top from 23% of their opponents' scrummages, with England managing barley half that percentage (12%).

2. Lineout. There is little to choose between the two teams when looking at lineout efficiency. On their own ball, Wales have retained possession on 85% of occasions, with England slightly behind on 82%. However, if we look at how competitive both sides have been on opposition ball, there is much for England to take confidence from. Stuart Lancasters side top the charts in terms of lineout steals - five in all across the first four matches. Wales, by contrast, are bottom of the pile after failing to secure any possession from their opponents' set-piece.

3. Place kicking. Despite those three misses at Murrayfield, Wales' Leigh Halfpenny has a good success rate of 81% with the boot. Likely rival Owen Farrell is behind on 75%

4. Defence. Wales have not conceded a try since the three they shipped against Ireland in those disastrous opening 42 minutes of the Championship, while England have been breached four times in four matches, only enjoying a shutout against the Irish. Wales have made 424 tackles in the tournament so far, with a success rate of 90% - the best in the Championship. Englands tackle success rate is only the fourth best of the six teams at 83% from 453 tackles.

5. Top tacklers. In terms of top tacklers in the two sides, England captain Chris Robshaw is top of the pile with 46 hits. Toby Faletau is Wales' top tackler with 39.

6. Contact area. The contact area will be key on Saturday, with Wales enjoying the edge so far. Rob Howley's men have secured 12 turnovers compared to England's nine.

7. Defenders beaten. In terms of defenders beaten, Wales' George North is the danger man of the two teams, going past 13 opponents so far.

8. Line breaks. England winger Mike Brown has broken the line more than any other player taking the field on Saturday. His four line breaks contribute to an England total of 16. Wales have managed 11 by comparison.

9. Points scored. Alex Cuthbert has contributed two of Wales' seven tries in the tournament so far. As we know, England have only managed five, a difference that could prove crucial if Wales win by seven. In terms of points scored, Wales have scored 92 to England's 91

10. Chris Ashton. If Wales are looking for signs of defensive weakness in the England ranks they need look no further than Chris Ashton. The winger has missed eight tackles in the tournament, with England missing 57 in total. Wales' total of 34 missed tackles is significantly less than any other team.

 

[ratsapprentice]

Well, not fit. Corbs is equal to either in the loose and significantly better at scrummaging... and a massive sicknote.

Also, if you're going to pick tight five players based on contribution in the loose - and I think you're being very generous to Marler - then it would be very difficult to leave out Parling or Launchbury. Each hits a ridiculously large number of rucks. I do not believe we have a tighthead lock who would offer a significant benefit in the scrum and hit the same number of rucks while running the lineout/racking up a blindside's tackle count.

Corbs is far and away first choice when fit, no argument there. I am being generous to Marler, because I think he has been ok despite not reaching his potential.
I think Dave Attwood on form would be a great person to bring in to balance the lock situation, he (and the Bath scrum) has been fantastic since Bath have actually started using him, finally living up to potential.
I fully expect him to be in the summer touring squad if he keeps up his form.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Peat; You're right, the Wasps scrum has been hugely improved, thanks largely to Phil Swainston but also to Rhys Thomas, who's a better scrummaging hooker than Tom lindsay. This success is arguably in spite of our looseheads, none of whom can really scrummage! Mullan can't come soon enough. And as you say, that's with Launchbury, Wentzel or Cannon behind Swainston, none of whom you'd describe as tighthead locks. Swainston still has some way to go in his development. He's an athlete in the loose, though there are better carriers. I can see him being capped by England if he continues to improve, but maybe not for 2 or 3 years.

To be fair, I've been pleased wth Davey Wilson; twice this championship he's come on just in time for scrums in difficult positions and really held it steady. This was especially welcome aganst Italy when Lo Cicero was newly subbed on. For now, Wilsons a great guy to have around I feel.

Just watched the first half of Italy again, trying to work out where it went wrong: I made a timeline of key things

2 minutes in: England spread the ball to the left for the first time and have extra numbers. For some unfathomable reason, Alex Goode delays the pass and an Italian hand knocks on, where we should have been away down the flank at least for another 20 yards.

4 minutes: Barritt and Tuilagi win penalty, Flood misses touch which would have given excellent territory.

7: Clean lineout turns scrappy, with Robshaw shifting it quickly to Care who doesn't have time to distribute for a properly structured phase.

8: Flood tries to bring Tuilagi in running from deep, but Flood gives it too early and the defence has time to fix on Tuilagi

9: Flood is tied up, Goode stands in at 10 and breaks the gain-line but no one is on hs shoulder for an off-load.

12: Another missed touch from Flood, good territory wasted.

22: Twice in a ppassageof play Flood loops a slow pass to Tuilagi coming from deep and it's too obvious, no attempt to conceal it.

24: Goode asses up a certain try by trying to hand the ball to Flood (?)

25: Early engagement on scrum on Italian 5 metre line gifts posession back.

26: Goode knocks on

28: Accidental obstruction as Wood attempts to pick and go through the middle but runs into Vunipola's huge arse.

31: Twice from setpiece ball Care decides to take it directly into contact rather than shipping it. No doubt he's excited that Gori has been binned and feels there should be extra space. England mistakes follow from this decision.

31: Care chooses the shortside and the Italian defence is up quick. Barritt is dumped and Italian win a penalty.

40: Brillant break from Brown. We spread the ball, it's there for the taking i nthe corner if Barritt gives it but he takes contact. It's still on even now, but when we ship it, Launchbury inexplicably passes back to Goode who is standing behind him, which means Goode has to try and float the long pass which doesn't come off. If Launchbury passes to Flood, the latter is runing onto it, can draw the defender and then pass to Tuilagi who should be in.

Overall, it struck me that we were really good in passages. Decision making was poor at times to be honest. Flood missed touches which would have put us in great positions. The thing is, we really didn't have much territory overall, and that just wasted what we did have. I'm not sure we were as bad as the scorline maybe suggests we were.

 

[Ospreylian]

Again, some really promising stats from a Welsh perspective, but I'm still not going to put my whole faith in them. England will be generally pleased with those figures as well.

Those tackle stats really show what a ridiculous amount of work Robshaw has put into his performances. Seeing that, 46 tackles, I'd now say Robshaw is as crucial to England's gameplan as someone like Morgan or Parling, definitely. I reckon he's a dark horse for player of the tournament, and if England win the grand slam I think he'll win that accolade. You always expect Faletau's tackle stats to be high, but looks like Robshaw has pipped him to the post this time for top tackles. We'll have to see how Saturday goes!

If North really has beaten 13 defenders it makes you wonder why Wales haven't scored a couple more tries. It just shows the lack of creativity and offloading in the team at the minute.

12 turnovers is great. Bet most of those came against Scotland with Warburton and Tipuric on the field.

 

[Patchey]

srsly, wouldn't it be better to see Croft at the wing ?...isn't he a complete waste at lock, and then not incredible either at flanker ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Lt_douDyFc

2.20

How many flankers can do that?

 

[ratsapprentice]

40: Brillant break from Brown. We spread the ball, it's there for the taking i nthe corner if Barritt gives it but he takes contact. It's still on even now, but when we ship it, Launchbury inexplicably passes back to Goode who is standing behind him, which means Goode has to try and float the long pass which doesn't come off. If Launchbury passes to Flood, the latter is runing onto it, can draw the defender and then pass to Tuilagi who should be in.

Overall, it struck me that we were really good in passages. Decision making was poor at times to be honest. Flood missed touches which would have put us in great positions. The thing is, we really didn't have much territory overall, and that just wasted what we did have. I'm not sure we were as bad as the scorline maybe suggests we were.

I noticed that too. Overall I think Flood was the key issue. As you say he missed touch several times, he seemed unwilling to pass to anyone other than Tuiliagi (unfamiliarity) even when there were clearly better options and he had time and his communication with Care was terrible. I'd hope that Farrell can vary our attack a little bit more than Flood, which shouldn't be difficult even with his limitations.

My point regarding weak scrums was more general; that if the scrum is creaking, it's not necessarily the prop's fault.


Does anyone have the turnovers conceded stats for both/either team?

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

WALES: Leigh Halfpenny; Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, George North, Dan Biggar, Mike Phillips; Gethin Jenkins (Capt), Richard Hibbard, Adam Jones, Alun Wyn Jones, Ian Evans, Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric, Toby Faletau.
REPLACEMENTS: Ken Owens, Paul James, Scott Andrews, Andrew Coombs, Aaron Shingler, Lloyd Williams, James Hook, Scott Williams.

Talk of the roof being closed??

 

[mstar]

I been thinking about how each team will play.

Anyway i can't see Wales suddenly playing any different to what they have been doing. It will be a big forwards play VERY direct down the middle play to grind out openings after relentless pressure over the gain line, looking for mistakes in Englands half for penlatys or switching out wide to allow the backs to run riot. Wales haven't played any different for the 3 wins, ugly but affective. It seems Howley hasn't really got a plan b its all down to dominating the opposition by physical scrum/forward play. The only team which detained that kind of play was Ireland (1st half) and France to some degree. Is this a sign, that when they meet a pack which can be as physical/skillfull as them it goes into an ugly stalemate kind of game.

As always the breakdown be interesting san warburton bread and tip-tap tipuric will cause havoc there. BUt it all depends on how good Robshaw plays to contain the opposite 7. Stats back up robshaw won't be lacking in this area. I just feel his sheer work-rate/tackling accuracy will enable RObshaw to be ok against the opposition 7 for the full 80mins.

England i can see them playing the terority game mirroring the Ireland game kick chase and force penaltys. I can't see them in this pressure game changing to a more passing game as otherwise 12T would of played. That will come later after 60mins. It will be a typical lancaster game plan one he has honed in his sides from the Leeds etc and his philosophy of playing he will make sure England remain tight kick into the correct areas of the ground –play there, and hope for penaltys. They will want to defend until the game opens up (or they need to attack more) and 12T will come on with other subs. As his saying was you have to be in the game to have opportunity's to win in the last 5-10mins. Its getting into that position.

Crofts inclusion is exactly what I posted earlier Lancasters thinking is to enable England to dominate the lineout with excellent options/jumpers and hopefully steal. With Crofts attacking ability it gives England another weapon in open areas. I don't expect Croft to play all game. But I think this also MAY be a weakness as Croft is average at the breakdown compared to Wood playing as a 6. This could make Robshaw etc life harder. (I haven't seen Croft in a full game for Leicester but I been told he was committed as ever at the breakdown).

It won't be a great game of rugby more of a dogfight. 1 week isn't going to change how both sides have been playing.

 

[mstar]

if there is ever a game/side where \England need a big ball-carrier in the back row its this one. With Ben Morgan i think the balance of Robshaw/Wood/Morgan is fantastic and give them the edge. Without it lacks balance and go-forward you need against a stubbon team like Wales.

 

[Big Ewis]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Lt_douDyFc

2.20

How many flankers can do that?

yeh somebody posted three vids of Croft earlier, and trust me I know this try all too well !
But that's precisely my point. He's got the raw pace to be a winger, and then the girth of a flanker to resist tackles. He's a bit of an Aurélien Rougerie...

Dullonien:
impressive stats for Wales, watching the games one may not expect such results...their performances have been far from impressive to say the least, but they've put in quite some work...

 

[psychic duck]

WALES: Leigh Halfpenny; Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, George North, Dan Biggar, Mike Phillips; Gethin Jenkins (Capt), Richard Hibbard, Adam Jones, Alun Wyn Jones, Ian Evans, Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric, Toby Faletau.
REPLACEMENTS: Ken Owens, Paul James, Scott Andrews, Andrew Coombs, Aaron Shingler, Lloyd Williams, James Hook, Scott Williams.

Finally there is Warburton and Tipuric starting together. Should have happened ages ago back in November instead of finding out one by one that all of the Scarlets trio Turnbull, McCusker and Shingler wouldn't be as effective, which was pretty obvious to most but Howley.

Big call on Gethin. Straight back from an injury after he refound great form in Italy. Hopefully he is up to scratch for this match and injury doesn't hamper him, Paul James would have been a safer option for the scrums. Surprised Warburton isn't captain, I would have had AWJ ahead of Gethin for captaincyc as well but it doesn't really matter too much tbh just for one match. I wonder who'll be captain if/when Lydiate returns at 6? Would that make Gethin permanent captain?

 

[dullonien]

Haven't done a head to head for a while, and it always attracts a lot of debate .

01 Gethin Jenkins v Joe Marler. I've given this to Gethin on the basis of Gethin's game against Italy. I know he's been off-form for a while, but he was back close to his best in that game, and I doubt a slight calf injury will have had any effect on his game. Marler isn't all that great imo.

02 Richard Hibbard v Tom Youngs. Hibbards all round game is better imo. He's a strong carrier in the tight, excellent defender and one of the strongest scrummaging hookers going. Youngs is an excellent ball carrier one out from the ruck, and his rucking game is top notch. Both are liable to wobbly lineout throws.

03 Adam Jones v Dan Cole. I think Cole's form has dipped a little as the 6 nations has progressed, whereas Adam's has rocketed. Cole has struggled in the scrum, and that is the reason I have Adam edging it. Cole's work in the loose, brings him back close though.

04 Alun-Wyn Jones v Joe Launchburry. I can't pick between the two. Launchburry has been a revelation, but Jones has been consistently one of the best locks in the home nations for the last 5-6 years.

05 Ian Evans v Geoff Parling. Again, I can't separate them. Both are vitally important to the running of their sides, doing the hard work, and a big presence in the lineout. Evans has the edge in the scrum, Parling as a defensive lineout jumper.

06 Sam Warburton v Tom Croft. Croft is quick, Sam is better at everything else.

07 Justin Tipuric v Chris Robshaw. Tipuric is the better openside, Robshaw is currently a better player, but as I've said plenty of times his skillset better suits the blindside.

08 Toby Faletau v Tom Wood. Wood is a great player, but he's not an 8. If Faletau was playing out of position at 6 against Wood, I'd favour Wood, but this isn't the case.

09 Mike Phillips v Ben Youngs. I think Youngs is the better scrum half. Phillips always steps up for the big games though, so don't be surprised to see Phillips dominate here with his physical style.

10 Dan Biggar v Owen Farrell. Similar players imo. Farrell is having a bigger influence because he's England's place kicker, although I actually think Biggar is more accurate with the boot. Farrell's better tackling edges it for me.

11 George North v Mike Brown. Brown has been one of England's best backs, but again he's a player playing out of position. North isn't getting his hands on the ball enough, but he is beating defenders when he does. North can win the game with one moment of brilliance, I don't think Brown has that in him.

12 Jamie Roberts v Brad Barritt. Barritt is an excellent defender, but even an off form Roberts offers just as much in defence. An on-form Roberts would offer more in attack, but that's not the case atm. If Roberts can up his game, I don't think Barritt can live with him, big if though.

13 Jon Davies v Manu Tuilagi. Tuilagi is England's best back, and is in great form. Davies iasn't a bad player, and he really does have a knack for scoring try's, but his passing is socking on occasion.

14 Alex Cuthbert v Chris Ashton. Ashton is sh*t. Cuthbert win's by default. Cuthbert is also capable of carving out try's for fun, one of the deadliest finishers in the NH.

15 Leigh Halfpenny v Alex Goode. Halfpenny has been Wales' best player. Goode is a bit rubbish tbh.

16 Ken Owens v Dylan Hartley. I know loads will disagree here, but I dislike Hartley. Owens offers massive impact from the bench.

17 Paul James v M Vunipola. James is one of the strongest scrummaging loosheads going, a good option to have on the bench. I like Vunipola though, very good developing player.

19 Scott Andrews v Dave Wilson. Andrews is still not international class imo. I hope he isn't required.

20 Andrew Coombs v Courtney Lawes. Lawes has been poor this 6 nations when given a chance. Coombs has been great. However, Lawes is the better player on from, and he's a class above Coombs, so on potential Lawes regains some ground to level it.

21 Aaron Shingler v James Haskell. I'm not a Haskell fan, bit Shingler hasn't been in great form of late. Haskell edges it.

22 Lloyd Williams v Dan Care. Care would usually take this, but some of his mistakes last week were unforgivable. Lloyd has returned to a good run of form.

23 James Hook v Toby Flood. I think Flood has received a little more criticism than he deserves for the game v Italy, but he still wasn't great. Hook hasn't had much game time of late.

24 Scott Williams v Billy Twelvetrees. I'm a big 36 fan, he's got a big future imo. Williams is a good player with lots going for him, but he's unwilling to pass the ball!

Cue the ridicule .

 

[Aristodemus]

That is a Welsh perspective if ever I saw one

 

[dullonien]

That is a Welsh perspective if ever I saw one

What are you on about, I'm totally impartial