Wales vs England - 16/03/2013

[Getofmeland]

Millennium Stadium, Wales
17:00, 16/03/13​

​

 

[Getofmeland]

Welsh Captain Ryan Jones out through shoulder injury

 

[dullonien]

Can't wait for this. Losing Jones is a bit of a blow, but Warburton and Tipuric were awesome together against Scotland. I actually think it could be a crucial part of the game, and will really test England's lack of a traditional openside.

I think we've got the tools to stop England. I think we've got a better pack, and our defence is up to the task of stopping Tuilagi. I've seen nothing that worries me in the backline other than Manu, so stop him and you go a long way to stopping England's backline.

If North or Cuthbert can create one try scoring opportunity again, like one of them has done in every match thus far, that could prove the difference, and that difference could very well be 7 points.

My head says that Wales will win, but the margin will be less than 7, thus England take the championship, but my heart says a 7 point Welsh win.

 

[smb64]

We've been denied 4 grand slam's at the last hurdle in the last 13 odd years. Wales ye got loads, so it would only be fair to do the honorable thing and let us win

 

[ratsapprentice]

It's a tough one to call, but it should be a cracker!

I'd say the packs are fairly even overall tbh, though our backline has looked dour at the best of times and highly suspect at the worst.

 

[Jimbosim]

Massive game - Both Teams equal up front, Wales have the edge in the back row and half backs. On current form England fancy the mid field and of course the Wingers, mouth watering battle!!

Looking forward to it, hope it delivers a cracker?

 

[Big Ewis]

We've been denied 4 grand slam's at the last hurdle in the last 13 odd years. Wales ye got loads, so it would only be fair to do the honorable thing and let us win

:lol: good spirit there !
But hey, England aren't invincible but they can slowly eat up a match and come up with an unimpressive but certain victory. Quietly but surely...

If wales get this, it shouldn't be by more than 8-9 points. And I don't think it will be a very exciting game per se to watch, certainly it's turned out to be the match of the tournament, but besides the stakes I think we've got a nice big 80min grindout session in front of us....hopefully not but...

 

[Peat]

Well personally I feel all this...

Everything good England have done has relied on quick ball. We'll be up against a side with a back row who can all play 7 to a high standard and Gethin Jenkins - I'll be seriously impressed if we get much against that. Our set piece has not been of a high standard - they have Adam Jones and Ian Evans to target that. We're wasteful in try scoring opportunities and generous in our defensive wing play.

On the plus side, Wales have been known to throw in the odd lineout gaffe themselves, they kick away too much ball, struggle to get the ball wide, rely on charging midfield defences when ours is harder than a gangster made from diamonds, and often have extreme composure farts. If we can reduce this match to an arm wrestle, superior discipline might win the day. If they cheat and score some tries, this could be a long day.

I'd like to see us simply hammer the living crap out of the Welsh fringes - pick and gos, Tuilagi coming back in against the grain - until something cracks and Youngs sees a gap, at which point Ashton should follow him like a dog after a butter slathered gerbil. It's probably our best chance of scoring a try.

I've also got a feeling it's simply going to be a horrible game, as both backlines possess the creativity and elan of a large german sausage. So lets just bore them and nick to death.

 

[ratsapprentice]

I'd like to see us simply hammer the living crap out of the Welsh fringes - pick and gos, Tuilagi coming back in against the grain - until something cracks and Youngs sees a gap, at which point Ashton should follow him like a dog after a butter slathered gerbil. It's probably our best chance of scoring a try.

I've also got a feeling it's simply going to be a horrible game, as both backlines possess the creativity and elan of a large german sausage. So lets just bore them and nick to death.

We need a number 8 to play the pick and go game, not just Tom Youngs and Mako.

I think the game will be great if you are English or Welsh simply because of the occasion, can't speak for the other nations though.

 

[dullonien]

Wait, do I +rep the boobies, or -reg the fact they are defaced with a St Georges flag?

 

[Ospreylian]

Tipuric is doing for Wales what Lydiate did so well last year, tackling really low so the player in possession falls to floor and Warburton can dive straight in over the top. Raises questions for when Lydiate returns, because in my opinion Tipuric is doing it just as well and is a class all-round act. Scrum V highlighted quite a few opportunities this happened when they were both on the field.

I think Wales may sneak the win, but winning by 7 points is a big ask tbh. Especially against a team who is on defensive form.

 

[Jbobo]

Wait, do I +rep the boobies, or -reg the fact they are defaced with a St Georges flag?

I +rep'd :lol: but you do make a good point...

Tipuric is doing for Wales what Lydiate did so well last year, tackling really low so the player in possession falls to floor and Warburton can dive straight in over the top. Raises questions for when Lydiate returns, because in my opinion Tipuric is doing it just as well and is a class all-round act. Scrum V highlighted quite a few opportunities this happened when they were both on the field.

That's a good point. It could be difficult for Lydiate to force himself into the starting lineup if the Warbutron/Tipuric combination proves to be consistently successful as Tipuric seems to have the more all round game whilst still doing the same sort of job as Lydiate. Is he as devastating defensively as Lydiate though? i'm not sure..

 

[Peat]

We need a number 8 to play the pick and go game, not just Tom Youngs and Mako.

I think the game will be great if you are English or Welsh simple because of the occasion, can't speak for the other nations though.

You're probably right, but I still reckon it's our best go even without one - most of our guys can make ground providing it's not slow ball. If it is slow ball, kick it away and hope Wales knock on...

Wait, do I +rep the boobies, or -reg the fact they are defaced with a St Georges flag?

Can't you do both?

Anyway, in the spirit of compromise and furthering Anglo-Taff relations, I present

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

I think we've got a better pack

I know it's immature but I have to debate this A very bold statement indeed. What's come out of this six nations is the strength of the England 8, even if the other 7 can't/don't have the tools/arn't the right players to make the most of it. I really regret the absence of Morgan, we've looked at our best when he beats defenders and quick ball is generated, but Wood is skillfull enough as a player to compensate for not being a natural 8.

I just think when you look at the form of Cole, Youngs, Launchbury, Robshaw, Parling, Wood, these are some of the form guys in their positions in the British Isles. Add too those guys the experience of Haskell and Croft coming back, and, when they're not being had on toast by more experienced tightheads, Vunipola and Marler, and I think its hard to look past the England pack really. Especially with Lawes and Hartley coming onto the pitch later on.

However, my real worry is what Adam Jones could do to to either Vunipola or Marler at scrum time. I think a dominant Welsh scrum could be worth between 7 - 10 points on the day, and in a game like this which should be tight, that's game over. Both scrums have had a mixed bag though overall - Both struggled against England, and both haad albeit brief patches of vulnerability against Ireland. England also had that aganst Italy, where Jones took them apart. I'm worried to say the least.

I think Vunipola could cope better with Jones and would start him.

 

[Big Ewis]

OUCH !!!!.........
Damn....that hurt......really really bad.

And yeah that Jenkins soprano chick is pretty, really pretty, but she seems cold as an ice-berg. I was interested in her singing and since she's so pretty I checked out an interview with her, she's.....empty ! The constant smile is a bit creepy too.

What ?!.....oh yes, the game the game........ahem: I do declare..Wales by...very little ?

 

[ratsapprentice]

You really are a glass half empty kind of guy aren't you?

 

[dullonien]

I know it's immature but I have to debate this A very bold statement indeed. What's come out of this six nations is the strength of the England 8, even if the other 7 can't/don't have the tools/arn't the right players to make the most of it. I really regret the absence of Morgan, we've looked at our best when he beats defenders and quick ball is generated, but Wood is skillfull enough as a player to compensate for not being a natural 8.

I just think when you look at the form of Cole, Youngs, Launchbury, Robshaw, Parling, Wood, these are some of the form guys in their positions in the British Isles. Add too those guys the experience of Haskell and Croft coming back, and, when they're not being had on toast by more experienced tightheads, Vunipola and Marler, and I think its hard to look past the England pack really. Especially with Lawes and Hartley coming onto the pitch later on.

However, my real worry is what Adam Jones could do to to either Vunipola or Marler at scrum time. I think a dominant Welsh scrum could be worth between 7 - 10 points on the day, and in a game like this which should be tight, that's game over. Both scrums have had a mixed bag though overall - Both struggled against England, and both haad albeit brief patches of vulnerability against Ireland. England also had that aganst Italy, where Jones took them apart. I'm worried to say the least.

I think Vunipola could cope better with Jones and would start him.

I was willing to make that statement because:

1. I think the Welsh scrum is better. After a slight wobble at the start of the tournament, Adam Jones has just demolished all in front of him, and tbh the English scrum has struggled at times. Hibbard has a big influence here as well.

2. I think the English backrow is unbalanced with three blindsides playing, and could be picked apart by the Welsh trio. Wood is a very good player, but he is far from an 8.

I'd give England the lineout, because they have a better defensive lineout, getting jumpers up on opposition throws and stealing or disrupting ball. This has long been a problem area with Wales, we very rarely challenge the opposition throw. But both sides are liable to dodgy patches on their own throw with Youngs/Hartley and Hibbard/Owens a little wobbly at times with the darts.

In other areas though, Ian Evans and Alun-Wyn Jones are excellent, as is Launchburry.

Ken Owens and Paul James/Gethin Jenkins offer good impact off the bench too.

The Welsh pack has been in great form since the opening wobble against Ireland. It really is what the Welsh victories have been built upon.

 

[Peat]

I'd agree with most of that but to say

- It was a pretty big wobble from Jones
- If Hartley isn't a reliable thrower, who in god's name is?
- Where do you think we're losing out with our back row?

Turnovers? Dan Cole gets a few, Robshaw gets a few, Wood gets a few, both Hask and Croft can get a few and Launchbury can do it. Plus, our favourite means of turning over the ball is exerting defensive pressure through big line speed. ESPN says our opponents have given 61 turnovers over the course of the championship. Your opponents have conceded 37. It's fair to say we've not been hurt there comparatively yet.

Winning quick ball? We're great at it, because we have a super mobile tight five and good technique.

Support play? Possibly dodgy, although Croft back should help things. Also, Joe Launchbury is very good at reaching far-off rucks and winning them. And Robshaw is as good at offloading and those short passes as any classic openside.

We lack a Faletau sized runner I guess and are somewhat reliant on our front row, which doesn't last forever - but it does half patch the hole at least.

Obviously I've named a lot of not back row guys there, but our back row is picked to work with our pack, not on its own.

Oh yeah, and that thing about you being better than us. Maybe. We'll see. Our pack has been excellent too, and our impact off the bench huge.

 

[dullonien]

Good points, well made as always Peat.

- It was a pretty big wobble from Jones.

It was, but I'm not worried about it. If he had half the number of caps he does, it might be worrying me, but Jones is about as experienced as they come, and he's shown that he's overcome that wobble and is back to his best in the scrum. The Scottish scrum was going well up until Saturday where it was dismantled by Wales. The ref might not have helped Scotland, but I think it was the first scrum that set the tone, and caused Scotland to try to win the hit the following scrums, causing them to jump the gun slightly.

-if Hartley isn't a reliable thrower, who in god's name is?

I had it in my head that Hartley could have his wobbly moments. I've probably got it wrong then. My point about Youngs stands though .

- Where do you think we're losing out with our back row?

I'm a big believer that a backrow requires fine balance to work at its best. I think the balance England have without Morgan is very poor, and even with Morgan it's not perfect. The Hill, Back, Dellaglio backrow was a wonderfully balanced unit for example. It doesn't mean that the current English backrow is poor, but it can be picked apart imo, and I think the Welsh backrow has the tools to do so. We'll see.

Turnovers?

Interesting stats. Of the Welsh pack, of course Warburton and Tipuric are standout in terms of turning ball over. Gethin Jenkins is another good jackler, as is Faletau and Hibbard. Alun-Wyn Jones is also capable, although he does more clearing work tbh.

What this will translate to on the day I'm not sure. If England can hit rucks quickly and efficiently, like they are capable of, we might not be as effective as I hope in this area. Same the other way round.

Winning quick ball?

I overlooked this, and I agree with you here. England are currently great at winning quick ball. We were great at this at the world cup, but we have struggled more since. We will need to slow England's recycling that's for sure.

Support play?

This is where I'm going to shout Tipuric's name. A great support runner for a forward. This could be somewhat offset by Faletau's poor vision when he has the ball though. Sam is also a good support runner.

 

[psychic duck]

It was (a big wobble)

No it wasn't. Not at all.

All that happened was that there was a shambolic surface, which caused virtually every single scrum to collapse straight on impact. And Clancy (the worst of the referees and particularly incompetent when it comes to scrums) penalised Wales more often.

There wasn't a time in that match where the Welsh scrum was actually shunted backwards and really struggling. All the penalties have been flop penalties, which are more to do with luck of the referee than actually the other side being dominant.

It was actually Wales who had the best scrum of the France match, (http://youtu.be/S4VJQeu9WpU?t=26m13s). The France penalties were mainly just the scrum flopping and them getting the decision from an utterly awful referee. I will wait until the scrum is actually shunted back like Castro was recently until I'm concerned. It hasn't in any of the matches as yet, I didn't see any problem with it against Ireland, Italy or Scotland, hardly a wobble.