The Ukraine War thread

[Which Tyler]

I'm going to assume you mean Lukashenko, not Litvinenko - very different people in Putin's estimation.

But I like the analogy with Saxons paying off Vikings (or Romano-Celts paying off Saxons) - except I'll note that Jeff Prigozhin isn't expected to take all that many of his troops with him, and that they're being stripped of their heavy arms (for now) - which surprises me, as I kinda expected them to march on Kyiv from the North.
Mind, I was also expecting JP to head to Africa at the earliest opportunity,rather than actually turning up in Belarus.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I'm going to assume you mean Lukashenko, not Litvinenko - very different people in Putin's estimation.

But I like the analogy with Saxons paying off Vikings (or Romano-Celts paying off Saxons) - except I'll note that Jeff Prigozhin isn't expected to take all that many of his troops with him, and that they're being stripped of their heavy arms (for now) - which surprises me, as I kinda expected them to march on Kyiv from the North.
Mind, I was also expecting JP to head to Africa at the earliest opportunity,rather than actually turning up in Belarus.

That is the one. It's been a long day doing very tedious tasks that I've been putting off for 2 years...

 

[McTallshort]

I think the problem is they have shown their hand but not really got much for it. Wagner is likely going to be disbanded, Prigozhin is in exile and no doubt Putin will not honour any agreement he made and will ensure Prigozhin faces some unfortunate accident further down the line. He made Putin look weak and, if there is one thing petty dictators cannot ever forgive, it's that. Putin will take it personally and such people never just let things go. Putin may not be able to do much now but, once Wagner as a force is all but gone, why would Putin not act against Prigozhin? Litvinenko is his lap dog and will almost certainly also not honour any agreement as soon as Putin tells him to break it.

The only way this works out for Wagner is if they stay together as a cohesive force with the same ability to enact the threat to topple Putin. To continue with the Saxon kings example, the kings stopped paying the Vikings as soon as they thought they could beat them on the battlefield. The Russian state are now going full force to disarm and weaken Wagner. Once that is done, there will be nothing to keep them paying off the Vikings as it were.

Disbanding Wagner isn't really an option for Russia. As I said in an earlier comment, Wagner is deployed all over Africa and parts of the middle East and are essential to Russian foreign policy, they are also by far Russia's most effective unit.

 

[Reiser99]

Disbanding Wagner isn't really an option for Russia. As I said in an earlier comment, Wagner is deployed all over Africa and parts of the middle East and are essential to Russian foreign policy, they are also by far Russia's most effective unit.

Issue is integrating them into the Russian army means Wagner becomes official Russian foreign policy and they lose a level of deniability.

 

[General Melchett]

A couple of other issues:

1. Surely Putin will want to be seen to be the one who ended the Wagner group even if it's by name only and they undergo some kind of rebranding exercise? People will forever associate Wagner as the group that nearly toppled Putin and made him flee Moscow.

2. When Russia needs to throw bodies to the front line do they integrate prisoners into the Russian army? Wagner was the ideal group for prisoners as it kept them separate from the Russian army and Prigozhin being an ex-prisoner himself was well placed to lead them.

I also find it hard to believe that Prigozhin will now sit in Belarus with his feet up as part of an early retirement. He surely knows the chances of Putin going back on his word as part of their deal are very high.

 

[McTallshort]

So Prigozhin is not in Belarus but in St Petersburg....not sure what's going on there

 

[McTallshort]

Putin meets Prigozhin: Getting to grips with latest twist in Wagner saga

The latest twist in Russia's mutiny saga surpasses Dostoyevsky for mystery, Steve Rosenberg says.

www.bbc.co.uk

So has Prigozhin actually got what he wants? No sign of the Russian military top brass he didn't like for a couple weeks and now meeting with Putin???

Also Sweden clear to join NATO.

 

[Yulia]

Yet another twist and turn in a story that's already surpassed Dostoyevsky for levels of surprise and mystery.

"Surpassed Dostoyevsky for levels of surprise and mystery"? What a weird thing to say.
And I'd rather compare this situation with Bulgakov's "Heart of a dog" or Chekhov's "Ward no.6" then....
They are talking a lot about this rendez-vous in Russian medias last days.

 

[General Melchett]

I do wonder if Prigozhin has some kind of insurance policy in case he were to get bumped off by Putin e.g. cronies of his revealing crucial information that could ruin Putin or the war effort.

 

[McTallshort]

I do wonder if Prigozhin has some kind of insurance policy in case he were to get bumped off by Putin e.g. cronies of his revealing crucial information that could ruin Putin or the war effort.

Or will bump Putin off in return

 

[Bada-Bing!]

What is Wallace on about? Do Western countries have much choice other than to arm Ukraine or does he really want Putin to win?

 

[McTallshort]

What is Wallace on about? Do Western countries have much choice other than to arm Ukraine or does he really want Putin to win?

Think he means "show a bit of gratitude and people will be more willing to send you weapons particularly those red neck morons in the states who think the world is flat"

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

I don't think what he Zelensky says matters much at this point. Ukraine-Russia has become a proxy war in the US for something I can't wrap my head around. "The squad" on the left and the majority of republicans don't like the idea of helping anyone out and I'd imagine republicans are team-Putin anyway.

I imagine we'll keep supporting Ukraine but if it was up to red states we'd let them die.

 

[McTallshort]

Looks like another Russian military leader is making his feelings public, much to the anger of Putin's favourite propaganda bot.

Threads

www.threads.net

 

[Saintjay]

What is Wallace on about? Do Western countries have much choice other than to arm Ukraine or does he really want Putin to win?

Disappointed in Wallace thought he was better than that as an ex soldier not same old Tories.

 

[McTallshort]

Disappointed in Wallace thought he was better than that as an ex soldier not same old Tories.

He's an ex Guards officer FFS of course he's going to be an old Tory although I do think people are misinterpreting what he said.

 

[Saintjay]

He's an ex Guards officer FFS of course he's going to be an old Tory although I do think people are misinterpreting what he said.

Good point he might as well have joined a mess tin repair unit. Clearly didn't want to join the real army.

 

[McTallshort]

Unconfirmed reports coming in that the Kerch bridge has been hit again. Russian telegram channels are reporting it closed due to an "emergency"

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Unconfirmed reports coming in that the Kerch bridge has been hit again. Russian telegram channels are reporting it closed due to an "emergency"

Also calling it an act of "terrorism". Amazing how utterly shameless and transparent the Russian government is with their lies. Bombing civilians? Totally fine. Destroying a key weak point in a logistics route? Terrorism.

I do wonder just how many Russians buy the nonsense, probably more than you'd hope given the tendency of lots of people to blindly follow what some in authority say when it's an emotionally charged issue.

 

[McTallshort]

Kyiv Post (@kyivpost.official) on Threads

📹This is what the Crimean bridge looks like now

www.threads.net

What it looks like now .