The Ukraine War thread

[Saintjay]

I don't really get what his plan was. Doesn't seem particularly well thought out. I'll throw my toys out the pram, take a relatively small army of prisoners, mercs etc to Moscow. Park my tanks on the lawn...................... Then what, your not prepared to fight and Putin isn't rolling over and having his belly tickled. Yes VP is weakend, but Wagner are now well and truly fecked

 

[General Melchett]

I don't really get what his plan was. Doesn't seem particularly well thought out. I'll throw my toys out the pram, take a relatively small army of prisoners, mercs etc to Moscow. Park my tanks on the lawn...................... Then what, your not prepared to fight and Putin isn't rolling over and having his belly tickled. Yes VP is weakend, but Wagner are now well and truly fecked

Difficult to know. Sounds like he's a bit of a hothead although there were reports today that US intel showed he'd been planning this since early June. Perhaps he was exasperated and had had enough of the Russian Defence minister's incompetence. Being a military man he must have known he could get to within 200km of Moscow with ease and knew the regime would start to panic and do a deal. Maybe his plan was perfectly executed or maybe he decided to take a big pay off and didn't need the hassle of the war anymore. Belarus is hardly a safe haven and he's surely toast as long as Vlad clings on.

 

[Reiser99]

Maybe he thought that Putin would sack his military leaders if they got close enough and then Putin called his bluff.

 

[General Melchett]

I also read that he was expecting more Russian soldiers to defect to his group than actually did while en route and so that may also have been a factor in him putting the brakes on.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I don't really get what his plan was. Doesn't seem particularly well thought out. I'll throw my toys out the pram, take a relatively small army of prisoners, mercs etc to Moscow. Park my tanks on the lawn...................... Then what, your not prepared to fight and Putin isn't rolling over and having his belly tickled. Yes VP is weakend, but Wagner are now well and truly fecked

I don't think there ever was a plan. Everything about this guy indicates he is an emotionally unstable and impulsive individual. Bakhmut didn't show any great military genius or planning, just sheer bloody mindedness. I recon he acted on impulse and then, after a day to cool down a bit, realised how badly he had ****** up and what he could be walking into so looked for a way out.

 

[Reiser99]

I think one of the biggest concerns for Putin is how popular Wagner seemed to be with the people. Certainly in Rostov-on-Don people were cheering and waving good bye to the mercenaries.

 

[McTallshort]

I don't really get what his plan was. Doesn't seem particularly well thought out. I'll throw my toys out the pram, take a relatively small army of prisoners, mercs etc to Moscow. Park my tanks on the lawn...................... Then what, your not prepared to fight and Putin isn't rolling over and having his belly tickled. Yes VP is weakend, but Wagner are now well and truly fecked

Don't forget Wagner is Russia's entire projected force abroad. Syria, Sudan anywhere that Russia is supporting with force is through Wagner. If Putin gets rid of Wagner he loses all his foreign force protection

 

[McTallshort]

I don't think there ever was a plan. Everything about this guy indicates he is an emotionally unstable and impulsive individual. Bakhmut didn't show any great military genius or planning, just sheer bloody mindedness. I recon he acted on impulse and then, after a day to cool down a bit, realised how badly he had ****** up and what he could be walking into so looked for a way out.

No this was planned. Logistics, key objectives, the lot. It may have been planned in case of X Y or X but this wasn't done on impulse

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

No this was planned. Logistics, key objectives, the lot. It may have been planned in case of X Y or X but this wasn't done on impulse

Weren't the reports that this was in the works for a couple weeks. Everything I've read has said that Belarus's leader comes out looking strong and the Russia MOD looking weak. Putin and Wagner is tbd but I think that Wagner seems to have the support of the Russian people and is now protected by Belarus.

 

[BrokenWing]

Is that much of a protection?

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Is that much of a protection?

Who knows? I guess the idea is that Putin wouldn't invade his most important ally to get to him?

Edit: replace important with loyal

 

[McTallshort]

Weren't the reports that this was in the works for a couple weeks. Everything I've read has said that Belarus's leader comes out looking strong and the Russia MOD looking weak. Putin and Wagner is tbd but I think that Wagner seems to have the support of the Russian people and is now protected by Belarus.

There is also reports NATO intelligence knew it was going to happen a couple of weeks ago but the FSB didn't pick it up....or just turned a blind eye

 

[McTallshort]

 

[BrokenWing]

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Wagner mutiny: Prigozhin's soldiers rage while others cry conspiracy

Wagner troops fume at their leader's decision to halt his march on Moscow in furious online posts.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[General Melchett]

I noticed that Putin was wearing a black tie for the second successive time last night. I wonder if that's symbolic and his way of telling Prigozhin and his cronies that they're toast.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I noticed that Putin was wearing a black tie for the second successive time last night. I wonder if that's symbolic and his way of telling Prigozhin and his cronies that they're toast.

If he comes out wearing a hangman's noose for a tie, then we will really know.

 

[Reiser99]

If he comes out wearing a hangman's noose for a tie, then we will really know.

Nah, tie with a balcony pattern would be more threatening.

 

[McTallshort]

I noticed that Putin was wearing a black tie for the second successive time last night. I wonder if that's symbolic and his way of telling Prigozhin and his cronies that they're toast.

Prigozhin showed on Saturday that Wagner could, if it wanted to remove Putin from power. The fact he paid off Prigozhin off like some Saxon king paying of the Vikings and that the Wagner fighters have been given clemency shows that Putin is in no position to make any threats

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Prigozhin showed on Saturday that Wagner could, if it wanted to remove Putin from power. The fact he paid off Prigozhin off like some Saxon king paying of the Vikings and that the Wagner fighters have been given clemency shows that Putin is in no position to make any threats

I think the problem is they have shown their hand but not really got much for it. Wagner is likely going to be disbanded, Prigozhin is in exile and no doubt Putin will not honour any agreement he made and will ensure Prigozhin faces some unfortunate accident further down the line. He made Putin look weak and, if there is one thing petty dictators cannot ever forgive, it's that. Putin will take it personally and such people never just let things go. Putin may not be able to do much now but, once Wagner as a force is all but gone, why would Putin not act against Prigozhin? Litvinenko is his lap dog and will almost certainly also not honour any agreement as soon as Putin tells him to break it.

The only way this works out for Wagner is if they stay together as a cohesive force with the same ability to enact the threat to topple Putin. To continue with the Saxon kings example, the kings stopped paying the Vikings as soon as they thought they could beat them on the battlefield. The Russian state are now going full force to disarm and weaken Wagner. Once that is done, there will be nothing to keep them paying off the Vikings as it were.