Not too long till kick-off now
![Smile :) :)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
I will have to sneak away from work early so I get home in time for the kickoff... silly Brisbane timezone....
Anyways I'm picking this will be a pretty tight match. We will certainly miss Hore up front - Mitchell is a dynamic player, but doesn't bring the same ability in the tight that Hore brings. I think the Highlanders have a slight edge in the front row, mainly through the presence of Tony Woodcock, who I'm sure will be putting a lot of pressure on Afeaki. Schwalger has the advantage over Mitchell (though is only just coming back from injury), while I think Fia has a slight edge over Manu, though it is hard to say. Fia is slowely developing into a reliable TH for the Highlanders, while Manu has been a fringe Super Rugby player for a number of seasons, but apparently is in the best shape of his career (and is starting ahead of Toby Smith). The Chiefs have the edge in the locks, with Clarke and Retallick the most consistent locking pair in the entire competition last season. Hoeata and Bekhuis are a similar pair in many ways in that they do the basics right, but Hoeata still lacks discipline. The Chiefs have a slight advantage in the loosies in my opinion. Messam is quality at Super Rugby level, and though I like Wheeler he is not in the same league. Manu is far more consistent than Fritz Lee, though Lee has apparently been in great form in the off-season, which is bad news for the Highlanders. One of the key match-ups will be Cane vs Hardie. They are quite similar players - Hardie will want to re-discover the form he showed at the start of last season before injury, as there may be a spot open in the AB's (backing up Sam Cane) while McCaw is away on sabbatical.
The Chiefs again have a clear advantage in the halves, largely due to Aaron Cruden. I quite like Sopoaga, but Cruden is in a completely different class. Smith vs Kerr-Barlow will be interesting. Kerr-Barlow dominated there last match-up, so Smith will be wanting to show why he is considered the AB's first choice 9. One area the Highlanders have a clear advantage is in the midfield. Aki is a good young player but will have his hands full containing Nonu. I'm interested to see how Burleigh goes at centre on defense - I actually think he will do a pretty good job containing Nanai-Williams, I'm just a bit worried how he will go stopping Pat Osbourne on the drift defense. Out wide Gear should cause Osbourne a lot of troubles - Osbourne has some great physical skills but he is renowned as a lazy trainer and can be a bit slow laterally on defense (It wouldn't surprise me to see Gear run around him). Poki and Tikoirotuma are pretty evenly matched in my opinon - Poki is more elusive, but Tikoirotuma has far more pace (and can pull off some big hits). It will be interesting to see how Anscombe goes at fullback, both in terms of positional play, and on defense (as he is not a strong defender, so won't stop Gear once he has run around Osbourne...). Ben Smith is a god.
Overall it is pretty hard to call, with the tight-forwards pretty even, the Chiefs with the edge in the loosies and halves, and the Highlanders with the advantage in the rest of the backline. The Chiefs have the advantage in goal-kicking too, but I'm backing the Highlanders home advantage to see them though. My prediction: Highlanders by 5.