Super Rugby 2012: Predictions

[Darwin]

The season may still be a couple of months away from starting, but given the majority of the squads have been announced I thought it would be interesting to see what people predict the table will look like at the end of the season. My predictions:

1. Crusaders - Getting a few more home games this year will certainly help their chances, but they do have a couple of major loses in Brad Thorn and SBW. Much will depend on how quickly McCaw and Carter get back to full fitness after their injuries. Carter is far more important than McCaw in my opinion - Matt Todd has proved to be a very good 7 at Super Rugby level, and though Taylor and Bleyendaal are talented, neither is proven at Super Rugby level.

2. Stormers - They look to again have a very good team this season. Francois Louw is a big loss, as is Fourie, though a de Villiers/de Jongh midfield still looks very strong.

3. Reds - They look to have a very similar team to last year, but the loss of Quade Cooper for the first few months of the season is huge for them, as he is (along with Genia) the key for the Reds.

4. Blues - Were on top of the table for a lot of last season before Toeava got injured, and look to have very strong squad again this season. The inclusion of Piri Weepu and Ma'a Nonu is huge for them: Weepu's ability to control the game could be crucial

5. Sharks - Should be competing with the Stormers at the top of the South African conference. The loss of John Smit is a big bonus for them as it will allow them to start Bismark du Plessis (undoubtedly the best hooker in South Africa in my opinion) every game

6. Waratahs - A side packed with Wallabies that should push the Reds for the top spot in the Australian confence. The loss of Kurtley Beale is huge, but this is somewhat off-set by the addition of Ashley-Cooper. Sarel Pretorius could certainly add some spark to the Waratahs attack (though will likely weaken their defense).

7. The Mighty Highlanders - Won't surprise teams like they did last season, but they are a much stronger team this season with the addition of quality players such as Andrew Hore, James Haskell, Tamati Ellison, and Hosea Gear. If Colin Slade is fit for most of the season they could well push for a spot in the top 6.

8. Bulls - The loss of the likes of Botha, Matfield, Rossouw, du Preez, and van der Heever is going to be difficult to overcome. They still should compete with the best teams (especially at home), but I'm not sure whether they have the depth to make the top 6 this season.

9. Chiefs - A very dangerous looking backline including the likes of Cruden, SBW, Kahui and Masaga - the problem is going to be delivering them quality ball to work with. The front-row looks promising, but is still a year or two away from being ready from being dominant at this level, while the locks are either too inexperienced (Fitzgerald, Retallick), not good enough (Graham) or simply journeymen (Clarke). If the majority of the team can stay fit (a big 'if') they could well push for a playoff spot.

10. Cheetahs - One of the most exciting teams to watch last season, but the lost of Pretorius and Viljeon - possibly their two most exciting players - is big for them. With a fit Brussow and Smith in the loose-forwards, and the likes of Oosthuizen and Struass in the front row the Cheetahs could compete well in the forwards this season.

11. Hurricanes - Undoubtably the worst Hurricanes team in years. There are still sprinklings of top class players throughout the team (e.g. Vito, Smith, and Jane), but they really lack the tight-five to compete with the top teams (even more so than in previous seasons).

12. Rebels - Certainly look to be a much stronger team than last season with the inclusion of O'Connor and Beale, but their tight-forwards and their backline defense will likely be major issues for them again this season

13. Force - Some good players throughout the team, but lacking a quality 10 to control the game for them (Ripia is just not good enough).

14. Brumbies - Will have a strong front row with Alexander, Moore, and Palmer, but not much else. Struggled last season (only had 4 wins), and without Giteau and Ashley-Cooper this season (their two best backs) I can't see them doing any better this season.

15. Lions - Perhaps a little harsh on the Lions, who actually looked to be improving at the end of last season. This placing may well reflect my lack of knowledge of South African rugby more than anything else!

I get the feeling that I have the Cheetahs rated too highly, but I don't rate any of the bottom 6, and had real difficulty rating them. I'd personally be surprised if the playoff teams didn't come out of my top 9 rated teams.

Feel free to produce your own list, or discuss why I have under-rated your team or over-rated the Mighty Highlanders

 

[peanuts40]

I actually think both the Bulls and the Lions may finish top two of the conference......and i'm a Sharks fan

 

[Darwin]

I actually think both the Bulls and the Lions may finish top two of the conference......and i'm a Sharks fan

It wouldn't surprise me if the Lions do a bit better than I predicted - I understand the Lions won the Currie Cup this season. The big question is whether or not they can transfer their Currie Cup form into the Super Rugby season. I personally can't see the Bulls doing that well though - they were 7th last season, and their squad looks worse than last season (Botha, Matfield, Rossouw, du Preez, van der Heever et al. all gone, with few notable additions). I'm certainly no expert on South African rugby though, so I could be miles off the mark!

 

[peanuts40]

It's just that the Bulls just have so many good young players, so i'm not sure what to expect from them. They potentially have the future Bok 12(Venter) and 13(Sadie) and have two very realible wingers in JJ and Basson. Morne Steyn may be one dimensional, but like Cooper is a god at super level as he just puts everything over. I actually think the N.Z conference is the most predictable out of the three, and S.A being the least. Besides the Cheetahs, i can see any of the four making it.

 

[nickdnz]

Can't see the Hurricanes finishing 11th. I wouldn't be suprised to see them battle for the wooden spoon, especially considering the NZ conference is so much tougher to get points in than the others, because of the relative equality of the teams. The forwards will be decimated after losing their entire starting front row (which was all All Blacks) and their backline will no longer be a threat because they've lost their creative pairs in their 9, 10 and 12 as well as losing their star winger. They've been utterly demolished, so I think losing to all teams is not out of the question.

Disagree that the NZ conference is the most predicatable. Other than the Crusaders finishing first, there is almost nothing predictable about it.

In 2011 it went Crusaders (61), Blues (60), Highlanders (45), Hurricanes (42), Chiefs (40)
In 2010 it went Crusaders (41), Blues (37), Hurricanes (37), Chiefs (26), Highlanders (19)
In 2009 it went Chiefs (45), Hurricanes (44), Crusaders (41), Blues (32), Highlanders (26)
In 2008 it went Crusaders (52), Hurricanes (41), Blues (40), Chiefs (34), Highlanders (19)

Doesn't seem to be too much predictability in that other than the Crusaders will usually do well. Compare that with South Africa in which

In 2011 it went Stormers (63), Sharks (57), Bulls (54), Cheetahs (40), Lions (29)
In 2010 it went Bulls (47), Stormers (44), Sharks (33), Cheetahs (26), Lions (05)
In 2009 it went Bulls (46), Sharks (38), Stormers (27), Lions (25), Cheetahs (12)
In 2008 it went Sharks (42), Stormers (41), Bulls (28), Cheetahs (13), Lions (12)
In 2007 it went Sharks (45), Bulls (42), Stormers (27), Cheetahs (22), Lions (22)

As you can see, the last two are always guarenteed to be Cheetahs/Lions. Compare that to the NZ franchises in which every single team has appeared in a Super Rugby final.

 

[peanuts40]

Pretty sure the thread is about the 2012 season? And not the seasons before it. Both the Highlanders and Hurricans don't have chance of making the quarter finals, and with top spot going to the Crusaders, the only question is who will finish second which i think will be the Blues. The reason the S.A conference is suddenly so close is because the Lions are the CC champs and showed up all the teams this season, and the usually bankable Bulls have lost some KEY players.

 

[nickdnz]

Pretty sure the thread is about the 2012 season? And not the seasons before it. Both the Highlanders and Hurricans don't have chance of making the quarter finals, and with top spot going to the Crusaders, the only question is who will finish second which i think will be the Blues. The reason the S.A conference is suddenly so close is because the Lions are the CC champs and showed up all the teams this season, and the usually bankable Bulls have lost some KEY players.

Right, I still think you are very much underestimating the competitiveness of the NZ conference, as the Chiefs, Highlanders, Blues and Crusaders will all probably battle for the top two spots of the conference. The Highlanders are much like the Lions in the sense that they have a whole lot of new talent and still looked very dangerous in last years comp (missing out on a spot in the playoffs by one win). They are also one of the few teams to look significantly stronger after the RWC exodus. Id's still be suprised to see the Lions win the South African conference (or even beat the Cheetahs)compared to SupeRugby as they have always been much more competitive in the CC (even though they hadn't won it in 10 years till now).

 

[ranger]

Pretty sure the thread is about the 2012 season? And not the seasons before it. Both the Highlanders and Hurricans don't have chance of making the quarter finals, and with top spot going to the Crusaders, the only question is who will finish second which i think will be the Blues. The reason the S.A conference is suddenly so close is because the Lions are the CC champs and showed up all the teams this season, and the usually bankable Bulls have lost some KEY players.

You say you're pretty sure the thread is about 2012 and not the seasons before, but i would bet my bottom dollar that you are proclaiming that the Highlanders don't have a chance of making the quarters due to the fact that the used to suck in past seasons..
This Highlander squad is the most talented since Wilson's days.

 

[Amobokoboko]

I hope the chiefs make it to the play offs or at least cause some massive mayhem

 

[Draggs]

That's a pretty fair assessment.
I don't think the Lions will compete like everyone expects them to do. They had the benefit of almost no Springboks callups for most of the Currie Cup, unlike the Sharks, Bulls, Stormers, and Cheetahs.
Likewise, until the Rebels get a semi-decent pack, I can't see them above 13th.

Our performance will depend on Plum's selections. I can't help but feel that Smit and Terblanche leaving is a help, but we need to sort out of second and back row selections. Daniel didn't cut it as captain in the Currie Cup, while Deysel isn't the force he was a few seasons ago. Midfield will be our biggest issue though. I'd consider giving Viljoen a shot at 12 and seeing how he does. I am consistently impressed with the lad, he steps up wherever he is played. I can't judge Whitehead, so I won't rule him out until he plays.

 

[Larksea]

I'd find it hard to comment on teams other than the NZ ones, I havn't kept up with the player movements outside NZ other than the obvious ones like Matfield & Smit retired. Giteau gone and the force picking up Beale and O'Conner but losing Summerville.

For the chiefs I have some high expectations this year. I think Renee and Smith will be very good and they are obviously working really hard at the moment to build the team and honestly I'm looking forward to seeing them in action. They will miss Donald and his experience but it's Cruden's time. He hasn't had the full responsibility of running a super team as the main #10 yet so it will be a step up for him. Locks are a traditional weakness for the chiefs and out of the NZ teams the chiefs will again this year have the weakest locking stocks. But in some ways that is made up for by having one of if not the best Loose forward combinations around. Messam was IMO the top loose forward in super rugby last season, though he carried a lot of weight on his shoulders and slowed down a bit towards the end of the season having played every min of every single game for the entire chiefs season. Latimer is now vastly experienced and works well with Messam, Waldrum is brilliant and when fit he's NZ's best 7 behind McCaw at super level. Fritz Lee was awesome last season and if he can cut down his penalty rate he will be a huge asset. And of course Sam Cane is on the books - the age group player of the year. My big worry for the chiefs outside the locks is who's going to play 15? Nanai? Robinson? Both are amazing young talents but neither give me that "safe as Mills" feeling. That said I do see the potential for the chiefs to be top 4 or top 6 and I think they have the coaching to reach their potential. Dave Renee has done really well with the turbos and the best thing about that team IMO is not Cruden it's their forward pack that always seems to be able to punch above it's weight. If the chiefs can do that they have one of the most talented backlines around. I think their top lineup 10 - 14 at least is maybe the strongest in the comp.

For my hometown boys the Blues. I think they have maybe the strongest team on paper of all. all blacks all over the place through both the forwards and backs one of the most experienced all blacks in history and one of the most respected players in world rugby leading the side. They have lost Payne, McAlister and Rokocoko who are big losses Brett not so much a big loss but they have Gained two players who are at the top of the world game in Nonu and Weepu and a comeback of former all black and Very classy super level player Rudi Wulf - what they dont have is a solid option at 10. Anscombe is a great prospect but he's still very young and sure Weepu can play 10 but I hope he's only seen as a backup. He's NZ's best 9 and it will be a sin to see him used otherwise. Honestly the blues and Auckland have so much talent that if they arent winning a ***le every few season and making the playoffs every year they should find new coaches & management. If Lam can't find the goods this year he should make way for someone else.

Crusaders squad will be awesome again, look to them to make the finals and be odds on to win it. Key will be getting top of the table and getting the home finals games. They were IMO the best team by far last year but suffered for the simple reason they didn't have a proper home game all season and traveling for finals games is fricken hard. Not easy winning the top finals positions as a NZ team in the new format because the NZ conference is the hardest.

Highlanders will be strong again and I hope they make their new home ground a fortress and murder visiting teams to get the locals behind them - and I'm glad they wont be using that green outfit too much. I can see another strong start to the season but I can't see them making the finals.

Hurricanes - They look on paper like they have got the NZ wooden spoon before the comp has even started... They still have Conrad Smith, Victor Vito and Jane but their stocks of world class players has run dry. If they couldn't do well with All Blacks - Hore, Nonu, Weepu, Tialata, Cruden and Gear on their books what can we expect from them without those guys? Nothing you would expect... But they did manage to snare Beauden Barrett who is the most exciting young player on the scene for a long time - I think more so than Cruden, Anscombe, Slade or anyone else for that matter. Will be good to see Tim Bateman back in NZ and they do have a lot of guys who have a point to prove I'll be keepign my eye on James Broadhurst (better known as the guy who broke Weepu's leg *I think?) I think he's potential Future all black material - with Thorn out there is a spot up for grabs in NZ's top 4 locks. But sugar coat it all you want I look down the 2012 Canes player list and it doesn't look threatening. Honestly it doesn't look much of a step up from a top NPC team.

I think the stormers will be the top Bok team, I dont think the bulls will quite be front runners this year but still strong. Sharks to mid table and Lions & cheetahs to bottom feedwhich as been their place most of the time - though they play really good rugby that's fun to watch and like all SA sides enjoy a huge home advantage that always earns them a couple of wins a year.

Reb's look like they should leap frog the force. Reds to have another strong year but not win it. Tah's will really miss Beale and Waugh and I have no idea what state the brumbies will be in.

 

[Darwin]

Can't see the Hurricanes finishing 11th. I wouldn't be suprised to see them battle for the wooden spoon, especially considering the NZ conference is so much tougher to get points in than the others, because of the relative equality of the teams. The forwards will be decimated after losing their entire starting front row (which was all All Blacks) and their backline will no longer be a threat because they've lost their creative pairs in their 9, 10 and 12 as well as losing their star winger. They've been utterly demolished, so I think losing to all teams is not out of the question.

While there is no doubt this is the worst Hurricanes team in years I don't think they will do as bad as you are suggesting. Over the last 5 years the worst placing from a New Zealand franchise team was 12th​ (Highlanders in 2010), while last year (when they started the conferance format) the worst placing New Zealand franchise was 10th​ (Chiefs). As a Highlanders supporter I can tell you that we have had some pretty horrible teams over the 5 years, but we normally have been 3-4 places from the bottom of the table. I think the Canes team this year is better than those Highlanders teams too; while they lost a whole pile of star power they still have some genuine world class players (Smith, Jane), and plenty of exciting young talent (Allen, Shields, Perenara, Barrett, Savea et al.). That puts them in a far better position than the Highlanders teams of previous years that were often full of 14 journeymen and Jimmy Cowan I don't expect the Canes to win consistently but they have enough talent sprinkled throughout the team to cause the odd upset which I think will see them stay off the bottom of the table. Even though Canes squad looks poor I personally don't think the Cheetahs, Lions, Brumbies, Force, or Rebels squads look any better.

Pretty sure the thread is about the 2012 season? And not the seasons before it. Both the Highlanders and Hurricans don't have chance of making the quarter finals, and with top spot going to the Crusaders, the only question is who will finish second which i think will be the Blues. The reason the S.A conference is suddenly so close is because the Lions are the CC champs and showed up all the teams this season, and the usually bankable Bulls have lost some KEY players.

As others have already mentioned the Highlanders have a very good chance of making the playoffs this year - they got pretty close last year and have added a number of key players since. At this stage the only NZ team that doesn't look like they have a realistic chance of making the playoffs is the Hurricaanes.

That's a pretty fair assessment.
I don't think the Lions will compete like everyone expects them to do. They had the benefit of almost no Springboks callups for most of the Currie Cup, unlike the Sharks, Bulls, Stormers, and Cheetahs.
Likewise, until the Rebels get a semi-decent pack, I can't see them above 13th.

Our performance will depend on Plum's selections. I can't help but feel that Smit and Terblanche leaving is a help, but we need to sort out of second and back row selections. Daniel didn't cut it as captain in the Currie Cup, while Deysel isn't the force he was a few seasons ago. Midfield will be our biggest issue though. I'd consider giving Viljoen a shot at 12 and seeing how he does. I am consistently impressed with the lad, he steps up wherever he is played. I can't judge Whitehead, so I won't rule him out until he plays.

I think getting the right selections is going to be be key for the Sharks - I went through all the South African teams and sorted out a likely 22 in my head and found the Sharks by far the hardest team to do this for. The problem is that they seem to have so much depth in the backline, as well as plenty of players that can play multiple positions. What do you think the backline is going to look like? I came up with a backline of McLeod, Lambie, Pieterson, Bosman, Joubert, Mvovo, Viljoen (not necessarily the backline I would pick, but the one I think will be picked) but the likes of Hoffman, Michalek, JL Potgeiter, O Ndungane, and Ludik all probably have strong cases for inclusion. Likewise the loose-forward make-up will be interesting: on paper I like the look of a Daniels, Alberts, Kankowski trio, but I'm sure both Botes and Deysel will get plenty of gametime too (though I understand Deysel was playing lock for much of the Currie Cup).

 

[The_Wol]

1. Reds.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

10. Reds.

fixed

 

[UilamOsa]

Super15 Predictions.

South Africa will release a huge number of Beast Players/Super Athletes in the S15 franchises. NZ crowds will be better than last year.

Quade Cooper will look cross eyed at Richie McCaw, Crusaders Fans will explode in indignation. World Fans will be Meh. Media will hype event before and after match.

Berrick Barnes wont get injured this year. Digby Ioane's first dance will be merely a 6/10.

Ma'a Nonu will cut his locks in becoming the true jafa metrosexual he was always meant to be. He will suddenly lose all his powers. Wellingtonians will disown him.

Fans of the other franchises will wonder who are the Under 19's players playing for the Hurricanes. Current All Blacks in the Hurricanes will not be happy babysitting during the Season, it will be leaked to the Media. Everyone but Corey Jane will understand how the Media/World came to know of it.

(Apart from the Blues taking it out next year) Zac Guildford will have an amazing season on and off the field.



And here's an easy one:
Sonny Bill will do something good/bad (won't matter) - and will get an insane amount of hate over it.

 

[Amobokoboko]

And here's an easy one:
Sonny Bill will do something good/bad (won't matter) - and will get an insane amount of hate over it.

And money, which he will donate to charity

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Winners: Force because I still love them
Runners up: Chiefs because I just got a chiefs jersey so they're my 2nd team
3rd: Rebels because James has to doreasonably well.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Digby Ioane's first dance will be merely a 6/10.

I'm fairly sure that is blasphemy

 

[TNT88]

I can't pick the table because I think there will be a few surprises.

The Reds should pretty easily make the top 6 again. But people shouldn't expect another season like 2011, they are only human, and they wont have Cooper for a big part of the season.

I don't think the Tahs are assured a top 6 spot, they only just scraped in last season and with teams like the Force and Rebels getting stronger, they will need to win more overseas games to stay there.

The Lions and Cheetahs showed us what they are made of towards the end of 2011. I expect they will both climb a few spots on the ladder.

Highlanders need to knock off either the Blues or Crusaders to get a finals sport, and I wouldn't put it past them.

And finally, I think the Force are in for a big season. We have such a good backrow and finally the backline has some depth. 3rd best in the Oz conference last year, hopefully an improvement this year The key is performing better + picking up more bonus points, on overseas tours.

 

[Tadginator]

Crusaders to win. Reds to lose thanks to quade cooper, he will finally show the world how bad he is