Super Rugby 2012: Predictions

[LittleGuy]

Crusaders to win. Reds to lose thanks to quade cooper, he will finally show the world how bad he is

He is going to be out for a large part of the season, so either they will have to win or lose without him.

 

[UilamOsa]

I'm fairly sure that is blasphemy

Maybe - but I would take an arrow to the knee to see if any team can bring in an awesome team celebration dance/stunt/roleplay/thingy.

Also, I'm picking the Force as well to upset a few teams. Should've kept David Smith or even that other winger name rhymes with igby sioane...

 

[Darwin]

And finally, I think the Force are in for a big season. We have such a good backrow and finally the backline has some depth. 3rd best in the Oz conference last year, hopefully an improvement this year The key is performing better + picking up more bonus points, on overseas tours.

Personally I can't see the Force doing much better than last season (when they got 12th) , but I'm certainly no expert on Australian rugby. The have a few handy additions this season: Ma'afu is an upgrade over Fairbrother, Toby Lynn will provide handy backup for Wykes and Sharpe, while Nalaga is even an upgrade over the departing David Smith (who was great in attack for the Force last season, but was a huge liability in defense). These improvements are very much offset by the loss of undoubtedly their best player - James O' Connor - who almost singlehandedly keep them in several games last season. O'Connor is also their premier goal-kicker, so they will be forced to find someone to kick goals this season (I'd assume either Ripia or Shepherd).

The team certainly has sprinklings of class: Sharpe & Wykes are a good locking combination, the loose-forward trio will be amongst the best in the competition, and there is some quality in backline with the likes of Cummins, Nalaga, and Shepherd. My biggest issue with the Force is the fact they seem to have locked Willie Ripia in as their first five, which I think is a big mistake. Ripia is an ok player, but is not good enough to be a starter at this level in my opinion. The biggest problem with Ripia is that he lacks any creativity - he's the sort of player that would thrive in a structured game behind a dominant tight-five (for example in the role Morne Steyn plays for the Bulls) but he is not suited to the Force's style of play, whose strength is in the speed and skill of their loose forwards and outside backs. To me they would be better off playing Stannard at 10 (outside Sheenhan). It is not a position he has that much experience at Super Rugby level, but he looked very impressive for them over the later half of last season, and really managed to get the backline firing. In the four games he started last season the Force won two (away games against the Highlanders and Rebels) and suffered two narrow defeats (away versus the resurgent Hurricanes and at home versus the eventual champion Reds).

One recruit I haven't mentioned yet is Winston Stanley - I'm really interested to see how he goes this season. He started off as a player of immense promise, being a standout at the Under 20 RWC and playing well for both Auckland and the Blues. However his form has dropped sharply over the last couple of seasons. He's had a few injuries which certainly hasn't helped - hopefully a change of scenery will do him good.

 

[Draggs]

I'm not sure about the Blues position, Darwin.
Nonu and Weepu are two great players, but assuming Weepu plays 10 and Nonu 12, that is a fairly predictable inside back pairing. McAlister and Brett offered some kind of playmaking abilities in the backline. An out-an-out 10 in the first XV is a problem. Weepu can do the job, but he really isn't an outside half. I think Anscombe can do it down the line, but he is still a young lad. Ranger, Wulf, and Toeava, are all dangerous attacking players, and Nonu can certainly create some holes for them.

 

[Darwin]

I'm not sure about the Blues position, Darwin.
Nonu and Weepu are two great players, but assuming Weepu plays 10 and Nonu 12, that is a fairly predictable inside back pairing. McAlister and Brett offered some kind of playmaking abilities in the backline. An out-an-out 10 in the first XV is a problem. Weepu can do the job, but he really isn't an outside half. I think Anscombe can do it down the line, but he is still a young lad. Ranger, Wulf, and Toeava, are all dangerous attacking players, and Nonu can certainly create some holes for them.

How the Blues goes this season will be interesting - I can potentially seeing them winning the ***le with the team they have, but I could also see them dropping down as far as 8th if the team doesn't click together. The Blues were leading the entire competition for quite a bit of last season before Toeava got injured, and I think they have a stronger team than last season. From last season they have lost Afoa, Brett, McAlister, Payne, and Rokocoko - of those only Afoa and Payne are major losses in my opinion. Rokocoko played solidly last season, but his loss is off-set by the return of Rudi Wulf. While both Brett and McAlister both provided some playmaking ability, neither had strong seasons for the Blues in my opinion. McAlister provided a good threat with ball in hand but was pretty inconsistent, struggled at times on defense, his goal-kicking form abandoned him mid-season, and couldn't control the game when he played 10. He certainly didn't show the form that he is currently displaying for Toulon! Brett has a strong individual running game but is incredibly flaky under pressure and struggles to control the game from 10. For every try he setup for the Blues he cost the Blues at least one try through poor passing/decision making or his shockingly poor defense.

As you mention, I think 10 is going to be the key position for the Blues this season. If Weepu fires at 10 they could win the whole thing, if not they may miss out on the playoffs (which would be very poor for them given all the talent they have). I'm expecting Weepu to get a lot of gametime at 10, and despite the fact he is not a specialist in the position I think he is a big upgrade over either Brett or McAlister there (if he is given consistent gametime in the position). Though he himself is probably not as big a running threat as either of these two players, he does have the ability to take the ball to the line, fix the defense, and setup others. I don't think Weepu is very predictable at all - he's got a very varied passing and kicking game that will certainly keep the opposition defenses in two-minds. I agree Nonu is largely predictable - he either passes early or has a go himself - however even though the opposition know what he is likely to do, stopping him from doing it is another thing altogether! I'm not yet convinced about Anscombe - he looks a quality player (and is a superb goal-kicker) I'm just not sure he has the ability to get a backline firing.

I'm think the first-choice backline will look something along the lines of: 9. Mathewson, 10. Weepu, 11. Wulf, 12. Nonu, 13. Ranger, 14. Moala/Raikuna/Stowers, 15. Toeava (with a bench of 20. Anscombe/Hobbs, 21. B Stanley, 22. Moala/Raikuna/Stowers/Munro) - that is potentially an incredibly dangerous looking backline to me!

 

[Me 1]

. He certainly didn't show the form that he is currently displaying for Toulon!

McAllister is at Toulouse

 

[Darwin]

McAllister is at Toulouse

Luke McAlister is at Toulouse. Luke McAllister was a fictional character in the popular soap opera Emmerdale played by Noah Huntley

Toulon/Toulouse - I knew it was a French club starting with T..... My mistake though, I clearly don't follow French Rugby as well as I should!

 

[Draggs]

Weepu certainly has a variety of skills, just not sure how well it will translate to outside half. When he is on-form he is outstanding, but on a poor day, it would be a nightmare at standoff. (Like you said, Brett was the same way, so no difference). Rokocoko has been off-form for a few seasons, and by the looks of his performances for Bayonne, the Blues will lose nothing. I've not seen too much of Rudi Wulf, but I remember hearing he was supposed to be a big thing a while back. Is Ranger any good at 13? He plays pretty well on the wing but how good of a distributor is he?

I think the Highlanders will do pretty well. Gear is a great addition, and if Slade can stay fit they have the makings of a very good backline. Still not sure about tight five or midfield, though. Slade could do with a reliable 12, whether it is a playmaker or crasher. Lynn isn't bad, but not spectacular either. Sopoaga played 12 for the Baby Blacks this year didn't he? Any chance of his future lying in midfield?

Seems like Mjekevu and Newman are staying on with the Sharks for training after the break; Mjekevu reminds me of JP 3/4 years ago. Lanky lad with plenty of pace and raw talent, just needs some working on here and there but has all the potential. Could do with him midfield, crash through a few tackles and set up our back three.

 

[Darwin]

Weepu certainly has a variety of skills, just not sure how well it will translate to outside half. When he is on-form he is outstanding, but on a poor day, it would be a nightmare at standoff. (Like you said, Brett was the same way, so no difference). Rokocoko has been off-form for a few seasons, and by the looks of his performances for Bayonne, the Blues will lose nothing. I've not seen too much of Rudi Wulf, but I remember hearing he was supposed to be a big thing a while back. Is Ranger any good at 13? He plays pretty well on the wing but how good of a distributor is he?

Personally I'm not a fan of Ranger at 13 (I'd prefer Stanley at 13, with Ranger and Wulf on the wings), but according to all reports it looks like he has the inside running for the Blues centre position this year. He does have some qualities that make him an attractive option at 13 - an incredibly powerful running game, powerful defense, and an ability to offload in the tackle - but I don't think he has the decision making skills to play 13 at this level. At times his distribution is good, but he blew a number of try scoring chances last season by ignoring clear overlaps and going himself. Likewise his decision making on defense - something I think needs to be a strength of a 13 - is questionable too. I think he has the potential to be a world class wing, but I'm yet to be convinced that he what it takes to be a quality centre.

I think Wulf is a very good addition to the Blues. When he came onto the scene he was a very 'safe' player – he had a very low error rate, had reasonable (but not outstanding) pace, but wasn't a huge threat on attack. However a couple of years ago he really bulked up a bit – despite most sites still listing him at around 91kg he is much closer to 100 kg now. He seems to have gained quite a bit of power – as a couple of tries in this video show (not the best quality video unfortunately). I expect he will start the season on one wing, but he is very capable at fullback and centre as well. He was very close to making the AB's again before he left for France, and I think he have the potential to push for an AB's spot again if he has a strong Super Rugby season.

I think the Highlanders will do pretty well. Gear is a great addition, and if Slade can stay fit they have the makings of a very good backline. Still not sure about tight five or midfield, though. Slade could do with a reliable 12, whether it is a playmaker or crasher. Lynn isn't bad, but not spectacular either. Sopoaga played 12 for the Baby Blacks this year didn't he? Any chance of his future lying in midfield?

I agree that the midfield and tight-five (specifically the props) are probably the two major areas of concern for the Highlanders. Andrew Hore is a major addition to the tight-five. Jason Rutledge is good player - he runs round like mad making plenty of tackle and numerous hit-ups, unfortunately he is a midget so he doesn't really make much of an impact with ball in hand and he is a liability at scrum-time. Hore is a very good scrummager and acts as a third loose-forward around the field, which will be a key for the Highlanders who thrived on turn-over ball last season. Hore starting, with Rutledge giving 20 mins of impact from the bench looks like a pretty good combo to me.

The props are a big issue for me. Mackintosh is great around the field but is still a poor scrummager, while Chris King is really journeyman at this level. He does the basics pretty well, but he is never going to dominate an opposition scrum. The biggest issue is outside of those two the quality drops even further: Murray is very much a fringe Super Rugby player (who has a habit of given away silly penalties), and while Fia is a good young prospect he is still a year or two away from being ready start at this level. A Mackintosh/Hore/King front-row should be able to hold it's own against most teams (though will likely get dominated by good scrummaging teams e.g. the Crusaders) but is unlikely to dominate any team (even poor scrummaging teams). Hoeata and Bekhuis are a very underrated locking pair, and I think Retallicks style of play will suit the Highlanders, so I think we are ok at lock as long as we don't get any injuries (like the one that Hoeata has now got that looks like it will rule him out of the first month of the season )

The mid-field is probably the most interesting area for the Highlanders this season, there are plenty of contenders, but I don't think there are any certainties at this stage. Treeby can play 12 or 13, Sopoaga can play 12 (or 10), Ellison can play 12 or 13 (or wing/15), Ben Smith can play 12 or 13 (or wing/15), Lynn can play 13, Piutau can play 12 or 13 (or wing), and even Poki and Veainu have experience at 13. At this stage the best combination for me is Treeby and Ellison (who I think is a key signing) - they could interchange between 12 and 13 depending on the situation. I quite like the idea of Sopoaga at 12 and I think he has the skills set to play there - I'd probably have him off the bench covering 10 and 12 at this stage. Lynn is ok, but isn't really a standout, while Piutau could be a good option to combat more physical midfields. I do think Ben Smith's future may lie in the midfield, but at this stage he looks to be more valuable to the Highlanders as a counter-attacking fullback.

I think goal-kicking is also a bit of a concern for the Highlanders - Sopoaga looks like to have a reasonable technique and is improving, but is still not a great goal-kicker, while Colin Slade isn't really a proven goal-kicker at any level. Our best goal-kicker by far is actually Chris Noakes, but he is definitely the third choice 10 in the squad.

Seems like Mjekevu and Newman are staying on with the Sharks for training after the break; Mjekevu reminds me of JP 3/4 years ago. Lanky lad with plenty of pace and raw talent, just needs some working on here and there but has all the potential. Could do with him midfield, crash through a few tackles and set up our back three.

I remember Mjekevu bursting onto the scene for the the Lions in 2010 as a 19 year old, and being very impressed. I can't even remember him playing for the Lions in 2011 (was he injured?), but I thought he was impressive at the U20 RWC this season. It seems strange to me that Mjekevu would go to the Sharks given that they probably have more depth already in the outside backs than any other South African franchise, with Mvovo, Pieterson, Viljoen, Lambie, O Ndungane, Ludik, Sithole and Richards all quality outside back options. They don't have as much depth in the centres, but still look to have plenty of options their too (Lambie, Joubert, Bosman, JL Potgieter, Whitehead, and probably Newman). He certainly looks to have the talent to break into the 22 eventually, but I can't help but think he would have been better off at the Lions, Cheetahs or Bulls where he would be far more likely to get gametime.

 

[UilamOsa]

Personally - I'd prefer to see a 10. Weepu 12. Stanley 13. Nonu.
With Stanley we have an extra boot and different point of attack. Ma'as long passing is good enough to set our backs alight. A Ranger/Nonu midfield combo would be more worrying to me than a Brett/McAlister combo.
Wulf & Toeava will be rock solid in defense at the back, whilst Ranger will provide a point of difference.

 

[Darwin]

Personally - I'd prefer to see a 10. Weepu 12. Stanley 13. Nonu.
With Stanley we have an extra boot and different point of attack. Ma'as long passing is good enough to set our backs alight. A Ranger/Nonu midfield combo would be more worrying to me than a Brett/McAlister combo.
Wulf & Toeava will be rock solid in defense at the back, whilst Ranger will provide a point of difference.

That is something I had though about, but I still have some reservations about Nonu at 13. Huge improvements were evident in Nonu's game once he made the switch from 13 to 12 - though some of this can undoubtedly be attributed to the fact he matured as a rugby player, I think some of this improvement was due to the fact he is more suited to 12 than 13. My major reservation about Nonu at 13 is his defense - I think he is a good defender at 12, but defending at 13 is a more difficult prospect, and I think Benson Stanley is far better suited to that job. On attack I can certainly see the merit in having Stanley running at 12 with Nonu at 13; perhaps a situation where Nonu played 12 on defense and 13 on attack would be ideal.

 

[Tricia McMillan]

Maybe the Blues will play Munro at 10. The position is our biggest weakness though.

I'm just repeating the mantra to myself that if the All Blacks can win the world cup with 10 being their main weakness, then the Blues can win the Super 15 without a world class 10.

 

[nickdnz]

In my opinion, Weepu at 10 is so ideal. People seem to think because he's played a lot at 9, that he will be an average 10. I think he's actually very good in that role and the most important thing is that with him at 10, Alby Mathewson can play at 9 (and he's the most underrated halfback in NZ by far, with the best pass and running game). If you play Weepu at 9 you have to rely on Anscombe running a backline, which I don't think he's capable of to the same level as Weepu.

 

[Gena_ZA]

Hi all, may the rugby gods smile down on you in 2012

My predictions are per conference as at this stage there is too little knowledge available (read I have to study them still) as to travel schedules, who has a bye against a strong teams and the like.
This is more a gut feel and what I make of the player movements, continuity and the snippets of info from the online media.

SA:
Stormers - Very matured side with excellent leadership. Andries Bekker, tower of strength and great captain is back with the ever present Schalk Burger, Nick Koster and Duanne Vermeulen to assist him. Prop Deon Carstens (ex Shark and Springbok, returning form Europe) and young gun Ruan Kitchoff give the ever problematic Stormers tight 5 a bit of shine this year. Jacque Fourie's loss to play in Japan is big but the backup is good in Jean de Jongh .Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana and the return of Jo Pietersen (back from France) makes for a very experienced backline outfit. Let's not forget they got one from the Bulls in Gerhard van den Heever. I see no reason why they will not be on top again in 2012 in the SA conference. They are an established unit that performs better every year.
Sharks - Fast and strong pack, Bismark to create havoc and the loosies to shine. Massive speed on the outside with strong and fast young guns. If they get the right midfield combo - see Riaan Viljoen (signed from Griquas) to possible feature here with the experience Marius Joubert - they might be a very tough side to beat. They got rid of the dead wood and will attempt to play other sides off their feet with a very fast and strong team.
Bulls - Very potent backline with the electrifying Francios Hougaard at 9 and the signing of Sadie and Engelbrecht (Stormers) with the pace and skills of Bjorn Basson. But will they be able to replace the huge loss in the forwards and have some depth. Is it possible for Pierre Spies to lift his gameplay now that he is captain and play to his full potential? As always they have a huge amount of very talented youngsters coming through and Heyneke Meyer knows how to buy players like the case with Daniel Adongo (Kenya) as loose forward/lock. Might as well bolt down the name of Arno Botha (age group) as up and coming Springbok. Jacques Potgieter and CJ Stander showed value towards the end of 2011 but I say again, will the Bulls pack gel in time to be effective?
Lions - Will do better than last year, but this is not the Currie Cup. Joshua Strauss is a brilliant captain and his challenge is to get the lads to step it up a level and give the platform for buldozing Hendrik Roodt, (signed from Griquas) to make an impact along with others like Derrick Minnie and Warren Whitley. Youngsters in the backline like Michael Kilian and Jaco Taute are maturing and the big question, will they get Frans Steyn??
Cheetahs – Will have a good start but lack of depth will kill them like every year, still to have a huge upset or two at home. Watch out for young flyhalf pivot Johan Goosen and if Heinrich Brussauw and Juan Smith remains fit they might have more than just one upset. Take note they have lost Sarel Pretorius (Warrathas) and Riaan Viljoen (Sharks)

So I see them more or less the same as last year part from the lions and Cheetahs trading bottom spots


NZ:
Chiefs – I don't often get a shiver down my spine when I think of an overseas team but this year the Chiefs does it for me. They seem to have acquired players where they had shortcomings. Don't sit there wide eyed if they play some teams completely of the park. Barring injuries they have the makeup to take this conference.
Crusaders – With them it is simple – "Rinse and repeat" and they will, again. They simply don't fail. Brutal effective rugby with arguably some of the best players on the planet.
Blues – Just look at them on paper, scary stuff! But why are they always falling somewhere in the season. Will Wheepu bring the stability they need? he could be a very very good half back if they let him settle. Ranger will be a great outside centre, just need to a bit of specialised coaching and he will rock - With Jeff Wilson joining the coaching staff as skills coach.. watch this space. They have a "lead by example" captain, a truly great player and person and a very strong pack to support him. They might even take it this year.
Highlanders – They will improve but just look at the teams above them, it is almost unfair. Looking forward to Treeby, Robinson and Gear for power, vision and brtal speed.
Hurricanes – They have traditionally performed worse as they should with good players. This year they will end bottom without these stalwarts.

So I see a big change in the fortune of many teams with the Chiefs reaching new highs and the Hurricanes new lows. It is sad that this conference needs to be that hard, too many good teams

AUS:
Reds – No one in Aus can get close to them at this stage. Even without Cooper they will rule this conference with ease. Ione, Higginbottom and the like just as too much punching power for this under powered conference.
Rebels – More experience and the blues of year one is gone. Good signings in Beale and O'Conner, wait… brilliant signings. If their pack can hold it up, they will be far more competitive than last year. It is a toss-up between the Rebels and the Force to take second spot in this conference.
Force – Their year to build on the performances and glimpses on excellent rugby in 2011. Strong loose forwards, some synergy settling in the backline but they will learn how much they will miss James O'Connor.
Waratahs – Their year to underperform, always a stable player base and a competitive team but they seem to go sideways where other teams go up. I predict them to fail a bit this year.
Brumbies – Yes sure they will build a better team with Jake White at the helm, in a year or two…

So I predict some weird stuff for the Ausies, probably cause I don't follow them closely.

As to my play off predictions = top 2 from each conference and top 2 highest ranked thereafter

Chiefs
Stormers
Reds
Crusaders
Rebels/Force
Sharks
Blues
Bulls

 

[TNT88]

To me they would be better off playing Stannard at 10 (outside Sheenhan). It is not a position he has that much experience at Super Rugby level, but he looked very impressive for them over the later half of last season, and really managed to get the backline firing. In the four games he started last season the Force won two (away games against the Highlanders and Rebels) and suffered two narrow defeats (away versus the resurgent Hurricanes and at home versus the eventual champion Reds).

AFAIK Stannard is a shoe in to start the season at 10. It's between him and Ripia anyway, and Stannard is the better attacker.

One recruit I haven't mentioned yet is Winston Stanley - I'm really interested to see how he goes this season. He started off as a player of immense promise, being a standout at the Under 20 RWC and playing well for both Auckland and the Blues. However his form has dropped sharply over the last couple of seasons. He's had a few injuries which certainly hasn't helped - hopefully a change of scenery will do him good.

I haven't seen much of him yet. But if he has what it takes there's a starting centre spot for the taking! We are all hoping some of the young recruits burst onto the scene. The Force moved into brand new training/gym facilities this season so everything is in place for these guys to maximize their potential.

 

[nickdnz]

Hi all, may the rugby gods smile down on you in 2012
NZ:
Chiefs â€" I don’t often get a shiver down my spine when I think of an overseas team but this year the Chiefs does it for me. They seem to have acquired players where they had shortcomings. Don’t sit there wide eyed if they play some teams completely of the park. Barring injuries they have the makeup to take this conference.
Crusaders â€" With them it is simple â€" “Rinse and repeat†and they will, again. They simply don’t fail. Brutal effective rugby with arguably some of the best players on the planet.
Blues â€" Just look at them on paper, scary stuff! But why are they always falling somewhere in the season. Will Weepu bring the stability they need? he could be a very very good half back if they let him settle. Ranger will be a great outside centre, just need to a bit of specialised coaching and he will rock - With Jeff Wilson joining the coaching staff as skills coach.. watch this space. They have a â€lead by example†captain, a truly great player and person and a very strong pack to support him. They might even take it this year.
Highlanders â€" They will improve but just look at the teams above them, it is almost unfair. Looking forward to Treeby, Robinson and Gear for power, vision and brtal speed.
Hurricanes â€" They have traditionally performed worse as they should with good players. This year they will end bottom without these stalwarts.

So I see a big change in the fortune of many teams with the Chiefs reaching new highs and the Hurricanes new lows. It is sad that this conference needs to be that hard, too many good teams

Interesting read. Very interesting you have picked the Chiefs for the top of the NZ conference. They've certainly gained two excellent players in SBW and Cruden, but I'm not sure it's fixed any of the existing holes, so to speak. SBW is better than Sweeny at 2nd 5/8th which has been a problem when Umaga was rested/injured, but the loss of Sivivatu, Donald, Umaga (as a player), Aled de Malmanch, Delaney and Muliaina will still hurt a bit (despite Cruden covering for losing Donald). The big problem is their tight five. Toby Smith, Hika Elliot/Mahonri Schwalger and Ben Afeaki have potential but are probably a few seasons away from delivering. Craig Clarke is a reliable lock for the Chiefs, but the others I feel fall short of competant. They are spoiled for options in the loose.

I think they should do well, but on paper I don't think they look as good as the Crusaders or the Blues, and seem on par with the Highlanders.

Interesting looking at the Blues. As I've said before, I doubt he'll be there as a halfback option. He's most likely going to end up at 1st 5/8th as the only other option is the very, very green Gareth Ansombe who is one of the best goal kickers around but doesn't quite look to be able to control a team yet. While Weepu is probably the best halfback in New Zealand by some way, he's probably the second or third best 1st 5/8th in New Zealand and has played a lot there for Wellington and recently the All Blacks. Besides, it would be a waste if Alby Mathewson was put on the bench, he's been the Blues best attacking weapon besides Ranger.
Your call on Ranger is also interesting. I personally think centre is where he has the most potential, but as Darwin has pointed out he doesn't always seem to have the vision to unleash the outside backs. His defense is good enough (at least to scare the heck out of people running down the centre channel) and he has the build to be the next Tana Umaga and even the skill-set, it's just whether or not he can adapt to Centre. A Nonu-Ranger midfield seems very scary (more scary than SBW/Fruean in my opinion), but it seems like Benson Stanley would miss out and he's a very reliable player. It also creates the problem of who to play at wing. Sherwin Stowers is an absolute freak in terms of his speed (looks about as quick as anyone in NZ) but in the few starts he's had for the Blues he's not really impressed. Not ready to rule him out as he looks magic at ITM Cup level. Munro's defense was shocking, so he's ruled out and Raikuna and Moala seem way too green. Rudi Wulf is a certain starter on one wing and Toeava has fullback, but with out Ranger on the left wing it looks like a gamble has to be put on Stowers.

Out of all the NZ teams, the Highlanders have the potential to impress hugely. They have a bit of depth this year (courtesy of Mark Hammitt), and their backline looks like it had the potential to be more than just competitive, it could be lethal. The forwards have always been dominant, at least at the rucks, but hopefully Hore can help the set piece a bit. With Cowan, Slade, Gear, Treeby, Ellison, Poki and Ben Smith they have a very good backline, with plenty of depth in Smith, Sopoaga and Baker (who I think is very underrated). I'd go as far as saying they could get a spot in the playoffs, and then who knows.

 

[RAWWeyman]

Personally I can't see the Force doing much better than last season (when they got 12th) , but I'm certainly no expert on Australian rugby. The have a few handy additions this season: Ma'afu is an upgrade over Fairbrother, Toby Lynn will provide handy backup for Wykes and Sharpe, while Nalaga is even an upgrade over the departing David Smith (who was great in attack for the Force last season, but was a huge liability in defense). These improvements are very much offset by the loss of undoubtedly their best player - James O' Connor - who almost singlehandedly keep them in several games last season. O'Connor is also their premier goal-kicker, so they will be forced to find someone to kick goals this season (I'd assume either Ripia or Shepherd).

The team certainly has sprinklings of class: Sharpe & Wykes are a good locking combination, the loose-forward trio will be amongst the best in the competition, and there is some quality in backline with the likes of Cummins, Nalaga, and Shepherd. My biggest issue with the Force is the fact they seem to have locked Willie Ripia in as their first five, which I think is a big mistake. Ripia is an ok player, but is not good enough to be a starter at this level in my opinion. The biggest problem with Ripia is that he lacks any creativity - he's the sort of player that would thrive in a structured game behind a dominant tight-five (for example in the role Morne Steyn plays for the Bulls) but he is not suited to the Force's style of play, whose strength is in the speed and skill of their loose forwards and outside backs. To me they would be better off playing Stannard at 10 (outside Sheenhan). It is not a position he has that much experience at Super Rugby level, but he looked very impressive for them over the later half of last season, and really managed to get the backline firing. In the four games he started last season the Force won two (away games against the Highlanders and Rebels) and suffered two narrow defeats (away versus the resurgent Hurricanes and at home versus the eventual champion Reds).

One recruit I haven't mentioned yet is Winston Stanley - I'm really interested to see how he goes this season. He started off as a player of immense promise, being a standout at the Under 20 RWC and playing well for both Auckland and the Blues. However his form has dropped sharply over the last couple of seasons. He's had a few injuries which certainly hasn't helped - hopefully a change of scenery will do him good.

I would 100% agree on having Stannard at 10. He's a very good 10 and watching him against the Reds at home last year I thought he proved himself immensly. Ripia is useless. I never saw any moments of excellence from him all season, and I think this season as our strengths lie with the likes of Cummins and Nalaga, a decent 10 is needed to make the most of them. We also have new young talent in the shape of Ben Seymour, though he will need game time to prove himself as a starting 10. Though, the Force have an excellent track record of finding young talent - their ability to hang on to this talent is maybe not so good .

In Terms of Winston Stanley, I wouldn't put him over the youngster Paddy Dellit. He won the Force's young player of the year, and from what I saw of him I thought he was excellent in the 13 jersey, capable of slotting into 15 or 14/11 perfectly also. He is a real young prospect that will push Stanley if not keep him from starting.

A real hole that needs filling is the number 12 jersey. O'Connor was perfect there last season, but I'm not sure who can fill his space in the Force squad. We have Rory Sidey, naturally a 13 but he did put in some solid perfomances at 12 last year, scoring twice in one match notably. The other option is Gene Fairbanks, a more creative, elusive 12 than a straightforward running crasher.

Aside from the backline which has a few worries, I think the forward pack are one of the strongest in Super Rugby. Pek Cowan and Salesi Ma'afu are both superb props, Wykes and Sharpe are both class - and I reckon Wykes will be Wallaby soon. McCalman, Brown, Pocock and Hodgeson are all solid, and make up the best back row in the Australian Conference.

So, the best line up we have is:

1. Pek Cowan
2. Nathan Charles
3. Salesi Ma'afu
4. Sam Wykes
5. Nathan Sharpe (c)
6. Matt Hodgeson/Ben McCalman
7. David Pocock
8. Richard Brown

9. Brett Sheehan
10. James Stannard
11. Napolioni Nalaga
12. Rory Sidey/ Gene Fairbanks
13. Winston Stanley/Paddy Dellit
14. Nick Cummins
15. Cameron Shepherd (gk)/Paddy Dellit

16. Keiran Longbottom
17. Ben Whittaker
18. Ben McCalman
19. Angus Cottrell
20. Justin Turner
21. Gene Fairbanks
22. Jordan Rapana

That's a half decent team.

 

[Amobokoboko]

SA:
Stormers - Very matured side with excellent leadership. Andries Bekker, tower of strength and great captain is back with the ever present Schalk Burger, Nick Koster and Duanne Vermeulen to assist him. Prop Deon Carstens (ex Shark and Springbok, returning form Europe) and young gun Ruan Kitchoff give the ever problematic Stormers tight 5 a bit of shine this year. Jacque Fourie's loss to play in Japan is big but the backup is good in Jean de Jongh .Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana and the return of Jo Pietersen (back from France) makes for a very experienced backline outfit. Let's not forget they got one from the Bulls in Gerhard van den Heever. I see no reason why they will not be on top again in 2012 in the SA conference. They are an established unit that performs better every year.
Bulls - Very potent backline with the electrifying Francios Hougaard at 9 and the signing of Sadie and Engelbrecht (Stormers) with the pace and skills of Bjorn Basson. But will they be able to replace the huge loss in the forwards and have some depth. Is it possible for Pierre Spies to lift his gameplay now that he is captain and play to his full potential? As always they have a huge amount of very talented youngsters coming through and Heyneke Meyer knows how to buy players like the case with Daniel Adongo (Kenya) as loose forward/lock. Might as well bolt down the name of Arno Botha (age group) as up and coming Springbok. Jacques Potgieter and CJ Stander showed value towards the end of 2011 but I say again, will the Bulls pack gel in time to be effective?
Cheetahs – Will have a good start but lack of depth will kill them like every year, still to have a huge upset or two at home. Watch out for young flyhalf pivot Johan Goosen and if Heinrich Brussauw and Juan Smith remains fit they might have more than just one upset. Take note they have lost Sarel Pretorius (Warrathas) and Riaan Viljoen (Sharks)

So I see them more or less the same as last year part from the lions and Cheetahs trading bottom spots


NZ:
Chiefs – I don't often get a shiver down my spine when I think of an overseas team but this year the Chiefs does it for me. They seem to have acquired players where they had shortcomings. Don't sit there wide eyed if they play some teams completely of the park. Barring injuries they have the makeup to take this conference.
Crusaders – With them it is simple – "Rinse and repeat" and they will, again. They simply don't fail. Brutal effective rugby with arguably some of the best players on the planet.
Blues – Just look at them on paper, scary stuff! But why are they always falling somewhere in the season. Will Wheepu bring the stability they need? he could be a very very good half back if they let him settle. Ranger will be a great outside centre, just need to a bit of specialised coaching and he will rock - With Jeff Wilson joining the coaching staff as skills coach.. watch this space. They have a "lead by example" captain, a truly great player and person and a very strong pack to support him. They might even take it this year.
Highlanders – They will improve but just look at the teams above them, it is almost unfair. Looking forward to Treeby, Robinson and Gear for power, vision and brtal speed.
Hurricanes – They have traditionally performed worse as they should with good players. This year they will end bottom without these stalwarts.

So I see a big change in the fortune of many teams with the Chiefs reaching new highs and the Hurricanes new lows. It is sad that this conference needs to be that hard, too many good teams


So I predict some weird stuff for the Ausies, probably cause I don't follow them closely.

As to my play off predictions = top 2 from each conference and top 2 highest ranked thereafter

Chiefs
Stormers
Reds
Crusaders
Rebels/Force
Sharks
Blues
Bulls

Nice piece you wrote here.
Regarding the Stormers, I thought Bekker was ad interim captain, with Schalk returning from Bok duties isn't he going to captain the side?

Are the Ebersohn twins still playing for the Cheetahs, they really brought an added value last season.

Also quiet curious to see how the Bulls will do without Bakkies and Matfield.

Chiefs may struggle as they don't have that much dept in the backline, please let them stay injury free

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

1 Crusaders
2 Stormers
3 Reds
4 Blues
5 Sharks
6 Highlanders

7 Waratahs
8 Bulls
9 Chiefs
10 Lions
11 Rebels
12 Cheetahs
13 Force
14 Brumbies
15 Hurricanes

That would be my predictions. I'd have the Blues ahead of the Reds and Stormers as well as the Cheetahs ahead of the Rebels but I think the conference system will see it reflected moer like what I have lined up. Any takers?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Nice piece you wrote here.
Regarding the Stormers, I thought Bekker was ad interim captain, with Schalk returning from Bok duties isn't he going to captain the side?

Are the Ebersohn twins still playing for the Cheetahs, they really brought an added value last season.

Also quiet curious to see how the Bulls will do without Bakkies and Matfield.

Chiefs may struggle as they don't have that much dept in the backline, please let them stay injury free

Not directed at me but:

Burger is still captain... as far as I know

Ebersohn twins still with the Cheetahs and with Johan Goosen in awesome form they might do well if they can shore up the midfield defense... if Andries Strauss can keep fit. Losing Pretorius, Uys and Viljoen though as arguably their most exciting backline players will hurt.

Bulls will be just fine. Might just miss the play-offs again but they'll push IMO. Botha and Matfield are great but I felt that at times (not the play-offs) they held back. Van der Merwe and Steenakmp are quality players and will want to make their mark. I think the Bulls will handle losing a raft of key players better than most might expect; Chiliboy is a good hooker and with Callie Visagie they have quality if inexperienced back-up cover with Gary Botha leaving. Like I said they have good cover at lock though depth might be tested. In the backrow I hope captain Pierre Spies won't hold back the development of future Bok Arno Botha. They have tons of good loosies if not tested at Super rugby level; Jacques Burger particularly. Hougaard has been in better form than FdP recently and while Steyn and Olivier should help to bring some consistency, look for their new signings to shine.