Super Rugby 2012: Predictions

[Seaton]

Wonder if Drotske might toy with the idea of Sias at 12?

Meh, some team will win Superugby, doubt they will be from SA or Aus, unfortunately my interest in the comp is declining day by day away from SA.

 

[Amobokoboko]

I'm counting down. Whenever the Cheetahs win they win in style

 

[Draggs]

I'm counting down. Whenever the Cheetahs win they win in style

Cheetahs v Crusaders was probably my favourite S15 match last year (non-Sharks that is).
I can't help but feel that Pretorius and Viljoen are big losses. That being said, Rudi Vogt had a good CC and is an extremely reliable kicker. Might offer a bit more than Hennie Daniller. Might be a stupid idea, but perhaps Sias Ebersohn could have a shot at 15. Very smart player who can read opposition fairly well. Good pace and a solid boot, just not sure how good his defence is.

 

[Darwin]

Your call on Ranger is also interesting. I personally think centre is where he has the most potential, but as Darwin has pointed out he doesn't always seem to have the vision to unleash the outside backs. His defense is good enough (at least to scare the heck out of people running down the centre channel) and he has the build to be the next Tana Umaga and even the skill-set, it's just whether or not he can adapt to Centre. A Nonu-Ranger midfield seems very scary (more scary than SBW/Fruean in my opinion), but it seems like Benson Stanley would miss out and he's a very reliable player. It also creates the problem of who to play at wing. Sherwin Stowers is an absolute freak in terms of his speed (looks about as quick as anyone in NZ) but in the few starts he's had for the Blues he's not really impressed. Not ready to rule him out as he looks magic at ITM Cup level. Munro's defense was shocking, so he's ruled out and Raikuna and Moala seem way too green. Rudi Wulf is a certain starter on one wing and Toeava has fullback, but with out Ranger on the left wing it looks like a gamble has to be put on Stowers.

Ranger certainly has potential at centre - he just has to make huge improvements in his decision making ability. He is capable of making these improvements: I think of the likes of Ma'a Nonu and Tana Umaga as players whose decision making improved remarkably as their careers progressed. These improvements won't happen over night though - the Blues may have to endure a couple of years of Rene Ranger blowing tries through poor decision making before he truly becomes a world class centre.

Out of all the NZ teams, the Highlanders have the potential to impress hugely. They have a bit of depth this year (courtesy of Mark Hammitt), and their backline looks like it had the potential to be more than just competitive, it could be lethal. The forwards have always been dominant, at least at the rucks, but hopefully Hore can help the set piece a bit. With Cowan, Slade, Gear, Treeby, Ellison, Poki and Ben Smith they have a very good backline, with plenty of depth in Smith, Sopoaga and Baker (who I think is very underrated). I'd go as far as saying they could get a spot in the playoffs, and then who knows.

You'd say that about any backline with Hosea Gear in it.... or comprised of almost 50% Wellington players
I'm actually quite intrigued at the prospect of Aaron Smith getting some starts at halfback for the Highlanders this season. Cowan's form at the RWC was shocking, and given the Highlanders actually have the very dangerous looking bakcline (for a change) it may make sense to have the best distributing halfback in the country there to give them quick ball.

In Terms of Winston Stanley, I wouldn't put him over the youngster Paddy Dellit. He won the Force's young player of the year, and from what I saw of him I thought he was excellent in the 13 jersey, capable of slotting into 15 or 14/11 perfectly also. He is a real young prospect that will push Stanley if not keep him from starting.

A real hole that needs filling is the number 12 jersey. O'Connor was perfect there last season, but I'm not sure who can fill his space in the Force squad. We have Rory Sidey, naturally a 13 but he did put in some solid perfomances at 12 last year, scoring twice in one match notably. The other option is Gene Fairbanks, a more creative, elusive 12 than a straightforward running crasher.

I quite like the look of Sidey and Dellit, though for some reason I keep getting the two confused (so I might only like one of them?). At the start of the season I would go with a Sidey/Dellit midfield (with Stanley covering from the bench). Fairbanks is a good creative player as you say, but he is very small and struggles to contain bigger midfielders (he gives up over 20kg to the likes of Nonu, SBW, and de Villers). I think this will be particularly an issue if Stannard plays 10, as he too is a small player.

Aside from the backline which has a few worries, I think the forward pack are one of the strongest in Super Rugby. Pek Cowan and Salesi Ma'afu are both superb props, Wykes and Sharpe are both class - and I reckon Wykes will be Wallaby soon. McCalman, Brown, Pocock and Hodgeson are all solid, and make up the best back row in the Australian Conference.

I personally don't think that the forward pack is that strong, mainly as I don't consider Cowan and Ma'afu superb props - I actually think Ma'afu has improved in the last year but think the likes of the Blues, Crusaders, Waratahs, and Sharks scrum will dominate the Force scrum. Wykes and Sharpe are good at the lineout and in the loose, but both play a very loose-game (Sharpe in particular). Individually I think they are very good players, but I don't really rate them as a combo, as neither of them fill the traditional hard-working 'tight-head lock' role (e.g. Brad Thorn, Bakkies Botha) that I believe is vital. There is no doubt the loose-forward combination is class.

So, the best line up we have is:

1. Pek Cowan
2. Nathan Charles
3. Salesi Ma'afu
4. Sam Wykes
5. Nathan Sharpe (c)
6. Matt Hodgeson/Ben McCalman
7. David Pocock
8. Richard Brown

9. Brett Sheehan
10. James Stannard
11. Napolioni Nalaga
12. Rory Sidey/ Gene Fairbanks
13. Winston Stanley/Paddy Dellit
14. Nick Cummins
15. Cameron Shepherd (gk)/Paddy Dellit

16. Keiran Longbottom
17. Ben Whittaker
18. Ben McCalman
19. Angus Cottrell
20. Justin Turner
21. Gene Fairbanks
22. Jordan Rapana

That's a half decent team.

Interestingly I came up with almost the exactly the same starting lineup when I went through and picked what I thought would be the best Force 22. As mentioned above I have Sidey and Dellit paired in the centres, and I had McCalman at 8 with Richard Brown on the bench (though I'm sure they will rotate their 4 premier loosies throughout the season). My only main changes were on the bench, were I had Toby Lynn as specialist lock cover (largely because I've never heard of Angus Cottrell), Winston Stanley in the 22 jersey (as he can cover 13, 12 and wing), and was deciding which two of Turner, Ripia and Fairbanks to include as inside back cover. As you say it is a half decent team - my main issue is that to me it looks very similar to the Force team that got 12th last season, but without James O'Connor! I do hope that the Force have a good season though, as I was really enjoying the way they played at the end of last season with Stannard at 10.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Wonder if Drotske might toy with the idea of Sias at 12?

Meh, some team will win Superugby, doubt they will be from SA or Aus, unfortunately my interest in the comp is declining day by day away from SA.

Sias doesn't have the size or defense to play at 12. With Corne Uys also moving off they need Strauss to stay fit for an entire campaign though his style of play means he takes a beating. If if goes pear-shaped they might consider fast-tracking ex Grey College captain William Small-Smith in the midfield?

Cheetahs v Crusaders was probably my favourite S15 match last year (non-Sharks that is).
I can't help but feel that Pretorius and Viljoen are big losses. That being said, Rudi Vogt had a good CC and is an extremely reliable kicker. Might offer a bit more than Hennie Daniller. Might be a stupid idea, but perhaps Sias Ebersohn could have a shot at 15. Very smart player who can read opposition fairly well. Good pace and a solid boot, just not sure how good his defence is.

Cheetahs are also my 2nd team. Pretorius and viljoen are definately big losses. I almost want to go as far as saying losing Corne Uys is just as big but Johan Goosen... if he can do in SR what he did in CC then they'll go just fine if the others stay fit.

Sias played brilliantly at 15 for the junior Bokke and in school. Has a good understanding/linking with his brother and was a try scoring machine from the back. His defense isn't the best though. great option on the bench to cover 10/15. Cheetahs' might get found out in the midfield though and don't have depth there. though they don't offer that extra bit of danger that Pretorius did, Van Zyl and De Bruyn are solid enough; might actually make a successful tackle as well unlike Pretorius. Quality pack though maybe a bit thin at lock but oth Juan Smith and Raubenheimer can cover at a pinch.

My prefered Cheetahs matchday 22:

1 Marcel van der Merwe
2 Adriaan Strauss
3 Coenie Oosthuizen
4 Francois Uys
5 Juan Smith (c)
6 Heinrich Brussow
7 Ashley Johnson (assuming his defense has improved otherwise I'd bench him and shift Raubenheimer to bring in Prinsloo)
8 Devon Raubenheimer
9 Piet van Zyl
10 Johan Goosen
11 Rayno Benjamin
12 Andries Strauss
13 Robert Ebersohn
14 Philip Snyman
15 Sias Ebersohn

16 WP Nel
17 Skiper Badenhorst
18 Izak van der Westhuizen
19 Boom Prinsloo / Philip van der Walt / Johan Wessels / Lappies Labuschagne all good option LOL; I'd serisouly consider playing both captain Smith and Raubenheimer at lock considering the lack of quality and depth there.
20 Tewis de Bruyn
21 Rudi Vogt
22 Hennie Daniller

 

[Draggs]

Juan Smith to second row would be a mistake. South Africans have the biggest obsession with size I have seen, but are happy to put backrows into second row (Deysel, van Heerden)
He is a class blindside, one of the best in the world. Shame Steenkamp left, Cheetahs should have moved for Mostert ahead of SF.

If Gio Aplon can play fullback, then Sias can! I think he is such a dangerous player, he needs to be on the field. You don't need to be huge, timing is the key, and he is a bright enough player to figure it out. He would be a 15 like Lambie; not the biggest or quickest, but can read plays and time his runs into the line.

 

[ret]

Only two certainties for mine-Crusaders to either win or go very close, and Phil Kearns to state very confidently that the Waratahs will "go all the way!"

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Juan Smith to second row would be a mistake. South Africans have the biggest obsession with size I have seen, but are happy to put backrows into second row (Deysel, van Heerden)
He is a class blindside, one of the best in the world. Shame Steenkamp left, Cheetahs should have moved for Mostert ahead of SF.

If Gio Aplon can play fullback, then Sias can! I think he is such a dangerous player, he needs to be on the field. You don't need to be huge, timing is the key, and he is a bright enough player to figure it out. He would be a 15 like Lambie; not the biggest or quickest, but can read plays and time his runs into the line.

Agreed we do like things big, especially our steaks and our rugby players. The reasons why I won't be surprised to see Smith in the 2nd row (or one of the taller younger guys) is because they have only 1 lock that could probably make the cut at SR in Francois Uys and about 6 top class loose forwards in Brussow, Smith, Raubenheimer, Johnson, Prinsloo and Labuschagne. Wessels and van der Walt are very usefull loosies to boot. Of those Smith and possibly Raubenheimer as best suited to pack down at lock with Smith experienced in the position at top level and getting on in years so this might be a move to keep him in the Cheetahs fold a bit longer.

It's a shame about Steenkamp leaving for the Bulls and Mostert leaving SA but the Free State simply can't compete money-wise. I think they could improve on their contracting strategies but the reality is they are strapped for cash and their market is a small one.

Agreed on Ebersohn needing to play at fullback for the Cheetahs. Although he has made his 'break-out' last year at 10, he has always been a fullback and has excelled their in age group rugby; such a smart player and combines well with his twin in midfield on attack. Not that I don't like Daniller but I think Sias has more to offer in the long run and it'd be a shame to have him benched (though I do hope Goosen gets as much gametime at 10 as possible).

 

[Seaton]

Well I hope you don't not don't like Daniller.

Doesn't fit their gameplay at all. Hehe, SA's Hugo Southwell.

 

[Gena_ZA]

I am talking under correction but seems to recall if Juan Smith have one more serious concussion he will be forced to hang up his boots.
Albeit a brilliant player he has been on the sidelines more often than not in the last 2-3 years. I would not put any money on him at this stage to make even half the season.

Sias, will loose nothing to try him at 15 as he is not going to get the 10 spot back from Goosen.
I would use Roubenheimer as a second row option, come to think of it

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I like Daniller. Not the best but I like him. Come to think of it, I like all Cheetahs players which is weird as I don't even like most Stormers players LOL.

Raubenheimer will be a classy player in a 1 or 2. Wouldn't mind seeing him at 7 for the Bokke (though playing at 4 and/or 8 for the Cheetahs might hamper his development) with Burger and Smith moving on. Alberts needs to show his class again; was playing poorly for the Sharks at the end in the CC. Dewald Potgieter is another one that has fallen off the pace in the blindside dept.

 

[Draggs]

I was chuffed that we had Alberts and Deysel vying for the 7 shirt, but now I wouldn't start either. Both have had a big drop in form and need to sort it out. As of right now, I'd go with Coetzee on the blindside and stick with Daniel openside. Kankowski at eight, but we can put Coetzee there if either Alberts or Deysel returns to form. Kanko at 13, you know it would work!

 

[Darwin]

Cheetahs are also my 2nd team. Pretorius and viljoen are definately big losses. I almost want to go as far as saying losing Corne Uys is just as big but Johan Goosen... if he can do in SR what he did in CC then they'll go just fine if the others stay fit.

Sias played brilliantly at 15 for the junior Bokke and in school. Has a good understanding/linking with his brother and was a try scoring machine from the back. His defense isn't the best though. great option on the bench to cover 10/15. Cheetahs' might get found out in the midfield though and don't have depth there. though they don't offer that extra bit of danger that Pretorius did, Van Zyl and De Bruyn are solid enough; might actually make a successful tackle as well unlike Pretorius. Quality pack though maybe a bit thin at lock but oth Juan Smith and Raubenheimer can cover at a pinch.

My prefered Cheetahs matchday 22:

1 Marcel van der Merwe
2 Adriaan Strauss
3 Coenie Oosthuizen
4 Francois Uys
5 Juan Smith (c)
6 Heinrich Brussow
7 Ashley Johnson (assuming his defense has improved otherwise I'd bench him and shift Raubenheimer to bring in Prinsloo)
8 Devon Raubenheimer
9 Piet van Zyl
10 Johan Goosen
11 Rayno Benjamin
12 Andries Strauss
13 Robert Ebersohn
14 Philip Snyman
15 Sias Ebersohn

16 WP Nel
17 Skiper Badenhorst
18 Izak van der Westhuizen
19 Boom Prinsloo / Philip van der Walt / Johan Wessels / Lappies Labuschagne all good option LOL; I'd serisouly consider playing both captain Smith and Raubenheimer at lock considering the lack of quality and depth there.
20 Tewis de Bruyn
21 Rudi Vogt
22 Hennie Daniller

Lock does look to be an area of concern for the Cheetahs. I'm not convinced with playing Smith or Raubenheimer at lock, though they may not have much choice. Both are good lineout options, I'd just be worried about what sort of power they are going to add to the scrum - I often feel people underestimate the importance of scrummaging power when assessing locks. I think this is particularly important when we consider that Oosthuizen is likely to be a starting prop for the Cheetahs. I understand that Oosthuizen has had a very successful season in the Currie Cup at tight-head, but he really struggled at loose-head last season for the Cheetahs - he was penalised 36 times last season (mainly at scrum time), almost twice as many as the next most penalised prop! He may be more successful at tighthead (though many consider this to be the more difficult position), but I think the Cheetahs really need a powerful second-row combination behind him to help him out. If Oosthuizen has made some improvements in his scrummaging it will be great news for the Boks, as he is phenomenal around the field.

I feel Pretorius is a massive loss for the Cheetahs, as much of there attack last year revolved around his snipping runs for the base of the ruck. The Cheetahs will certainly be a better defensive team with him gone, I just wonder who will provide the attacking spark in the backline (especially considering Viljoen is also gone). They certainly have some talent in the backline with the Ebersohns, and I understand Goosen had an exceptional Currie Cup.

 

[baboonhunter]

1. bulls
2. stormers
3. sharks
4. lions
5. cheetahs
6. crusaders
7. blues
8. chiefs
9. highlanders
10. hurricanes
11. brumbies
12. waratahs
13. force
14. rebels
16. reds
relegation: quade cooper

 

[Gena_ZA]

lol @ baboonhunter

Regarding the loss of Sarel Pretorius, look back at his performances in the Super 15 last year. He started of like a Tsunami but ended like a tidal pool.
The defensive couches worked him out, he was only mildly effective at the end. He also have a dismal defensive record.
The Warratahs might just regtret it, not that I care

Draggs I think you have it spot on, locks are about power, let the young guns grow into the position rather than covert loosies, and yes when Coenie is going to fire he is going to be awesome, the next Os, coached by same

 

[Ricochetmaster]

me i personally think that the rebels will pull up from last year as they now have Kurtley Beale and James O'Conner but other than that , thats all they got . as for Crusaders their lack of new young players may have cost them the ***le last season as they currently depend on experienced players and when they get injured they just leave a vacancy . as for reds , they pretty much have the same team from last year which might work in their favour for experience . as for the south african teams im not really gonna expect much from them as the younger players come into the tournament but i've got my eye on 1 team , WAIKATO CHIEFS , I mean even though stephen donald is gone we have Aaron Cruden to take his place and for Mills Muliaina we have Tim Nanai Williams , and if that didnt convince you the inclusion of Sonny Bill Williams might .only 2 things unfortunate for this team is that the forwards are not in tune and the half back should work a lot better under pressure . as i watched the world cup and witnessed some of the star players i noticed that Taniela Moa was there and he played for chiefs , he should have been playing half back instead of Leonard .

unfortunately the only team that might spoil this awesome team is the Auckland Blues with their new half back Piri Weepu and 2nd five eight Ma'a Nonu

 

[Darwin]

me i personally think that the rebels will pull up from last year as they now have Kurtley Beale and James O'Conner but other than that , thats all they got . as for Crusaders their lack of new young players may have cost them the ***le last season as they currently depend on experienced players and when they get injured they just leave a vacancy.

Welcome to the Forum!

I think the Crusaders have plenty of young talent coming through, especially in the backs. Outside of Dan Carter and Andy Ellis no other back in their entire squad is older than 25! They are starting to develop some good depth in there backline too: the likes of Ellis, Carter, Fruean, Guildford, Maitland, Dagg are all superb Super Rugby players, but the likes of Adam Whitelock, Crotty, Tom Marshall are established Super Rugby players, and the likes of Taylor, Bleyendaal and Osbourne all have a lot of potential.

Any team that will likely have the likes of Ben Franks and Matt Todd on the bench obviously has some depth in the forwards too.

but i've got my eye on 1 team , WAIKATO CHIEFS , I mean even though stephen donald is gone we have Aaron Cruden to take his place and for Mills Muliaina we have Tim Nanai Williams , and if that didnt convince you the inclusion of Sonny Bill Williams might .only 2 things unfortunate for this team is that the forwards are not in tune and the half back should work a lot better under pressure . as i watched the world cup and witnessed some of the star players i noticed that Taniela Moa was there and he played for chiefs , he should have been playing half back instead of Leonard .

That's the key though - there is no point in having a great backline in the forwards can't deliver them quality ball! Taniela Moa is an interesting one - there is no doubt he has talent, he just doesn't seem to have the work ethic to fully make use of these talents. I wouldn't have him anywhere near my team if I was a selector - he got limited time for the Chiefs at the start of last season and was very poor. He is very inconsistent, makes a lot of basic errors and his defense is shocking (he made less than 50% of his tackles at the RWC). I'm not a huge fan of Leonard but he is a solid Super Rugby player, and Kerr-Barlow has the potential to be an exceptional player, though his game needs to mature a bit.

 

[Draggs]

Oosthuizen is a beast in the loose, but I see him penalised more than any other prop. If he can work on his scrummaging, than he will be an awesome player.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I'm both nervous and excited about this year's tournament. the Reason being that my team, the Bulls are entering a new era with many stalwarts gone, and they are rebuilding.

Now this could be both good and bad for the Bulls. with the young guys coming through we lost a lot of experience, but the young guys brings some mystery to the team, which is quite odd for a Bulls team. this unpredictability might be just what the Bulls need to scare some opponents who might think that they will be an easier target this year than previous years.

With Frans Ludeke, Heyneke Meyer and Pine Pienaar at the helm, they will be a well coached team, and Pine Pienaar has shown some creativity with the Backs in the currie cup.

I don't think my team will be in the top 4, but one thing is for sure, they will be competitive in every facet!

Can the Rugby start already!!!

 

[lance2010]

1.Blues
2.Reds
3.Crusaders
4.Stormers
5.Sharks
6.Rebels
7.Bulls
8.Chiefs
9.Tahs
10.Cheetahs
11.Brumbies
12.Lions
13.Force
14.Highlanders
15.Hurricanes


The Blues have a powerful team this year and i think Ma'a playing in Japan is a good thing because he tends to get off to a slow start so him playing rugby now is good and the Blues need to get off to a good start.
Ma'a playing too much rugby might work against him too he might be over cooked and tired but playing in Japan this shouldn't be a big problem.

Is the draw out yet?