Spring Tour:New Zealand vs Ireland - 1st Test. (09/06/2012, 08:35 GMT)

[big ginger 8]

Eden Park, Auckland (09/06/2012, 08:35 GMT)

Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales) ​

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 400, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="align: center"]New Zealand[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Ireland[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Israel Dagg[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Rob Kearney[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Zac Guildford[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Fergus McFadden[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Conrad Smith[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Brian O'Driscoll (c)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Sonny Bill Williams[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Keith Earls[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Julian Savea[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Simon Zebo[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Daniel Carter[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Jonathan Sexton[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Aaron Smith[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Conor Murray[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Kieran Read[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Jamie Heaslip[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Richie McCaw (c)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Sean O'Brien[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Victor Vito[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Peter O'Mahony[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Samuel Whitelock[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Donnacha Ryan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Brodie Retallick[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Dan Touhy[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Owen Franks[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Declan Fitzpatrick[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Andrew Hore[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Rory Best[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Tony Woodcock[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Cian Healy[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Hikawera Elliot[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Sean Cronin[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Ben Franks[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]17[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Ronan Loughney[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Ali Williams[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]18[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Donnacha O'Callaghan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Adam Thomson[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]19[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Kevin McLaughlin[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Piri Weepu[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Eoin Reddan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Aaron Cruden[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Ronan O'Gara[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Ben Smith[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]22[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Darren Cave[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Maybe a day or two too early for this but I thought I'd start it now. For some reason I am actually looking forward to this. I'm probably a Masochist. For this match it appears we'll be without: Tommy Bowe, Luke Fitzgerald, Paul O'Connell, Stephen Ferris and worst of all Mike Ross. We also have Declan Kidney as coach with Les Kiss for some reason still in charge of the attack. Admittedly New Zealand do have their own injuries: Cory Jane, Richard Kahui, Jerome Kaino and Kevin Mealamu. However they of course have crazy strength in depth and have great replacements. They do of course also have a new coach in Hansen. Here are the two 22's I expect to see for this. Not the ones I want. Obviously I'll have a better grasp on the Irish 22 and I also don't think either team will experiment for this one.

Ireland:
1. Healy
2. Best
3. Fitzpatrick
4. O'Callaghan
5. Ryan
6. O'Brien
7. O'Mahony
8. Heaslip
9. Reddan
10. Sexton
11. Earls
12. D'arcy
13. O'Driscoll
14. Trimble
15. Kearney

16. Cronin
17. Loughney
18. Tuohy
19. Henry
20. Murray
21. O'Gara
22. McFadden

New Zealand:
1. Woodcock
2. Hore
3. O. Franks
4. Retallick
5. Whitelock
6. Vito
7. McCaw
8. Read
9. A. Smith
10. Carter
11. Gear
12. Billl-Williams
13. C. Smith
14. Savea
15. Dagg

16. Elliot
17. B. Franks
18. Williams
19. Thompson
20. Kerr-Barlow
21. Cruden
22. B.Smith

Our frontrow is one to be feared but not in a good way.

 

[nickdnz]

Maybe a day or two too early for this but I thought I'd start it now. For some reason I am actually looking forward to this. I'm probably a Masochist. For this match it appears we'll be without: Tommy Bowe, Luke Fitzgerald, Paul O'Connell, Stephen Ferris and worst of all Mike Ross. We also have Declan Kidney as coach with Les Kiss for some reason still in charge of the attack. Admittedly New Zealand do have their own injuries: Cory Jane, Richard Kahui, Jerome Kaino and Kevin Mealamu. However they of course have crazy strength in depth and have great replacements. They do of course also have a new coach in Hansen. Here are the two 22's I expect to see for this. Not the ones I want. Obviously I'll have a better grasp on the Irish 22 and I also don't think either team will experiment for this one.

Ireland:
1. Healy
2. Best
3. Fitzpatrick
4. O'Callaghan
5. Ryan
6. O'Brien
7. O'Mahony
8. Heaslip
9. Reddan
10. Sexton
11. Earls
12. D'arcy
13. O'Driscoll
14. Trimble
15. Kearney

16. Cronin
17. Loughney
18. Tuohy
19. Henry
20. Murray
21. O'Gara
22. McFadden

New Zealand:
1. Woodcock
2. Hore
3. O. Franks
4. Retallick
5. Whitelock
6. Vito
7. McCaw
8. Read
9. A. Smith
10. Carter
11. Gear
12. Billl-Williams
13. C. Smith
14. Gear
15. Dagg

16. Elliot
17. B. Franks
18. Williams
19. Thompson
20. Kerr-Barlow
21. Cruden
22. B.Smith

Our frontrow is one to be feared but not in a good way.

I'm a huge Hosea Gear fan, and his workrate has increased a huge amount this season, but even I'm not sure he'll be selected for both the wings. Unless you're thinking Rico Gear is ganna make a suprise comeback. Maybe you meant Julian Savea? Other than that, not far off the 22 I'd suspect. I have a feelling Guildford may be on the right wing with Savea on the left. I also think Ali Williams will start because it's against the law to drop Ali Williams from a starting XV, no matter how sh*t he's played since he made his comeback.

I also think Andy Ellis will start at 9 with Aaron Smith on the bench and Tawera Kerr-Barlow out of the final squad.

 

[big ginger 8]

I'm a huge Hosea Gear fan, and his workrate has increased a huge amount this season, but even I'm not sure he'll be selected for both the wings. Unless you're thinking Rico Gear is ganna make a suprise comeback. Maybe you meant Julian Savea? Other than that, not far off the 22 I'd suspect. I have a feelling Guildford may be on the right wing with Savea on the left. I also think Ali Williams will start because it's against the law to drop Ali Williams from a starting XV, no matter how sh*t he's played since he made his comeback.

I also think Andy Ellis will start at 9 with Aaron Smith on the bench and Tawera Kerr-Barlow out of the final squad.

Yeah I was so indecisive about which one will play which wing so I must have thought I put Savea on the other. I'm thinking Savea on the right because Gear is way less effective on the right and Savea always carries in his right hand anyway. Of course Guilford could be played so the wings aren't too similar. I was basing it on who was in the training squad hence no Ellis. Final squad's being named tomorrow isn't it?

Your lucky you only have the Ali Williams rule about one player for us it's the entire starting XV!

 

[munstermuffin]

I reckon we will scrape a 3 point win.

 

[nickdnz]

Yeah I was so indecisive about which one will play which wing so I must have thought I put Savea on the other. I'm thinking Savea on the right because Gear is way less effective on the right and Savea always carries in his right hand anyway. Of course Guilford could be played so the wings aren't too similar. I was basing it on who was in the training squad hence no Ellis. Final squad's being named tomorrow isn't it?

Your lucky you only have the Ali Williams rule about one player for us it's the entire starting XV!

Yeah, I totally get that confusion. Yep, pretty much the reason why I think Guildford will be named is just because he's a different type of winger than Gear and Savea (for a start, Gear and Savea either beat the man one on one or at least get past the advantage line, Guildford never does either).

Andy Ellis was named in the 35 man squad and is almost a certainty to be named in the 30 man squad, which as you mentioned, is named tomorrow (or today, seeing as it's 1:30am Sunday, here).

 

[big ginger 8]

Now the squads being named I'm guessing Mealamu and Weepu in for Elliot and Kerr-Barlow on the bench.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Yeah, I totally get that confusion. Yep, pretty much the reason why I think Guildford will be named is just because he's a different type of winger than Gear and Savea (for a start, Gear and Savea either beat the man one on one or at least get past the advantage line, Guildford never does either).

Andy Ellis was named in the 35 man squad and is almost a certainty to be named in the 30 man squad, which as you mentioned, is named tomorrow (or today, seeing as it's 1:30am Sunday, here).

Just as bad as cyRil in predicting his dates and scores of games :lol:

 

[Darwin]

Just as bad as cyRil in predicting his dates and scores of games :lol:

To be fair (though I hate being fair to Nick ), the exclusion of Andy Ellis from the 30-man squad is one of the weirdest decisions I've seen made by an AB's selection panel in 15-odd years of closely following AB's rugby.

1. Woodcock
2. Hore
3. O. Franks
4. Retallick
5. Whitelock
6. Vito
7. McCaw
8. Read
9. A. Smith
10. Carter
11. Gear
12. Billl-Williams
13. C. Smith
14. Savea
15. Dagg

16. Mealamu
17. B. Franks
18. Williams
19. Thompson
20. Weepu
21. Cruden
22. B.Smith

I don't think your All Blacks 22 is too far off their Big Ginger 8. Though personally I'd start Whitelock and Retallick as my locks I have a feeling we may see Ali Williams start alongside Whitelock (with Rettalick on the bench). Similarly I'd prefer the loose-trio you have suggested, but I have a feeling that they may start Thomson at 6 with Vito on the bench (though it could go either way).

I have no idea what they are doing with the halfbacks (2/3 best halfback in the country aren't even in the squad...) - they may even start Weepu! I'm hoping that Nonu is rested for much of the series and they go with a SBW/Smith midfield, but their is the possibility they may start Nonu at 12 and play SBW on the wing (but I hope they don't!). I don't think they will start both Gear and Savea on the wing as they are both very similar players, and it goes against the policy they have had in recent years of selecting 2 (or 3) fullbacks (though this is a slightly different selection panel). I'd imagine Savea will start on the the left wing with Ben Smith on the right wing, though they could start Guildford on the right wing, as he has looked very sharp in recent weeks (personally I'd start Ben Smith at fullback with Savea and Guildford on the wings).

 

[big ginger 8]

Would Dagg on the wing and Ben Smith at 15 be a possibility? I don't think Smith has the top end pace for wing and it's something Dagg obviously has plenty of.

 

[Darwin]

Would Dagg on the wing and Ben Smith at 15 be a possibility? I don't think Smith has the top end pace for wing and it's something Dagg obviously has plenty of.

That is something I would seriously consider (Indeed I'm still tossing up between: 11. Savea, 14. Guildford, 15 Smith and 11. Savea, 14. Dagg, 15. Smith as my preferred lineup). I'm not sure whether the selectors will be thinking that way though. Dagg has some experience on the wing at international level, but Smith has more experience at lower levels (indeed he spent the entire 2009 and 2010 Super Rugby seasons on the right wing with Dagg at fullback). I'm not too worried about Smith's top end pace, as he would be no slower than Cory Jane, but I do think Smiths skill-set mean he is far more effective at fullback than wing.

 

[big ginger 8]

That is something I would seriously consider (Indeed I'm still tossing up between: 11. Savea, 14. Guildford, 15 Smith and 11. Savea, 14. Dagg, 15. Smith as my preferred lineup). I'm not sure whether the selectors will be thinking that way though. Dagg has some experience on the wing at international level, but Smith has more experience at lower levels (indeed he spent the entire 2009 and 2010 Super Rugby seasons on the right wing with Dagg at fullback). I'm not too worried about Smith's top end pace, as he would be no slower than Cory Jane, but I do think Smiths skill-set mean he is far more effective at fullback than wing.

Doesn't really matter anyway you could put Crockett on the wing and you'd still thrash us.

 

[Darwin]

Doesn't really matter anyway you could put Crockett on the wing and you'd still thrash us.

We might even be able to beat you with Weepu at halfback

 

[big ginger 8]

Oh God no!

Maybe Tony Buckley will return to rescue us.

 

[nickdnz]

Damnit. I owe BG8 an apology. Ellis didn't make the squad which as Darwin has said, is very unusual.

My backline would be 11. Gear, 14. Savea. 15. Dagg. It's not very balanced, but I think those are the best players for it. That being said, I could live with anything other than Tamati Ellison or Ben Smith on the wing. I think Cory Jane is faster than Ben Smith to be honest. And Hansen has gone with three specialist wingers in the squad, it'd be strange if he didn't go with them.

 

[Darwin]

Damnit. I owe BG8 an apology. Ellis didn't make the squad which as Darwin has said, is very unusual.

My backline would be 11. Gear, 14. Savea. 15. Dagg. It's not very balanced, but I think those are the best players for it. That being said, I could live with anything other than Tamati Ellison or Ben Smith on the wing. I think Cory Jane is faster than Ben Smith to be honest. And Hansen has gone with three specialist wingers in the squad, it'd be strange if he didn't go with them.

Really? We have had plenty of specialist wings over the last few years, yet the majority of test matches we have played utility players rather than specialists (e.g. Toeava, Kahui, SBW, Dagg, and you could even argue Jane...) - personally I think it would be strange if we did decide to go with specialist wingers

Considering Ben Smith was in the initial squad (and I heard Hansen mention he was a genuine option for the wing), and Gear/Guildford were only added later as injury cover, I think Smith will have the inside running for the right wing spot for the first test (though, as I mentioned previously, I would actually start him at fullback). We will have to agree to disagree about Ben Smith's pace - he is not express pace, but he is certainly fast enough to be a test match wing in my opinion. Gear really hasn't done anything at all this year to suggest he should be in the AB's squad - indeed I probably would have preferred they pick Andre Taylor in the squad, but I'm sure you would pick Gear in you match-day 22 regardless of form (just as I would pick Ben Smith!)

 

[nickdnz]

Really? We have had plenty of specialist wings over the last few years, yet the majority of test matches we have played utility players rather than specialists (e.g. Toeava, Kahui, SBW, Dagg, and you could even argue Jane...) - personally I think it would be strange if we did decide to go with specialist wingers

Considering Ben Smith was in the initial squad (and I heard Hansen mention he was a genuine option for the wing), and Gear/Guildford were only added later as injury cover, I think Smith will have the inside running for the right wing spot for the first test (though, as I mentioned previously, I would actually start him at fullback). We will have to agree to disagree about Ben Smith's pace - he is not express pace, but he is certainly fast enough to be a test match wing in my opinion. Gear really hasn't done anything at all this year to suggest he should be in the AB's squad - indeed I probably would have preferred they pick Andre Taylor in the squad, but I'm sure you would pick Gear in you match-day 22 regardless of form (just as I would pick Ben Smith!)

From what interviews I've heard from Hansen, he picked specialist wingers for that reason. In the past few years they've gone with Toeava, Kahui, SBW, Dagg etc in the squad, when there have been no alternatives for specialist wingers named in the squad. When Rokocoko or Sivivatu were named in the squad, they've started pretty much all games. Anyway, I just think the selection of three specialist wingers is probably an indication they're going for specialist players to start rather than utilities.

In terms of Hosea Gear, I actually said that I didn't think he'd warrented a position in the All Blacks, and I went for Andre Taylor and Julian Savea over him. With that being said, to say he's not been very good is harsh, I'm pretty sure he's leading the competition in running metres and very close in terms of broken tackles. His work rate has been immense as well. Considering you've been a fan of Rudi Wulf and Zac Guildford, I'm suprised you're so critical of Hosea Gear, especially considering he's improved in all the areas you've been complaining about. Hansen has also said one of the big reasons why he missed out on the 35 man squad earlier, was because he hadn't resigned, and when he did he was selected.

 

[Darwin]

From what interviews I've heard from Hansen, he picked specialist wingers for that reason. In the past few years they've gone with Toeava, Kahui, SBW, Dagg etc in the squad, when there have been no alternatives for specialist wingers named in the squad. When Rokocoko or Sivivatu were named in the squad, they've started pretty much all games. Anyway, I just think the selection of three specialist wingers is probably an indication they're going for specialist players to start rather than utilities.

In terms of Hosea Gear, I actually said that I didn't think he'd warrented a position in the All Blacks, and I went for Andre Taylor and Julian Savea over him. With that being said, to say he's not been very good is harsh, I'm pretty sure he's leading the competition in running metres and very close in terms of broken tackles. His work rate has been immense as well. Considering you've been a fan of Rudi Wulf and Zac Guildford, I'm suprised you're so critical of Hosea Gear, especially considering he's improved in all the areas you've been complaining about. Hansen has also said one of the big reasons why he missed out on the 35 man squad earlier, was because he hadn't resigned, and when he did he was selected.

I don't think I said he has not been very good - he has been solid for the Highlanders, but he hasn't been in the sort of form that warrants selection the All Blacks starting 15, and I would have (just) preferred Taylor and Guildford over him in terms of the 30-man squad (though don't necessarily mind his inclusion, and would still have picked him over Wulf or any other non-selected outside back except Taylor). He certainly has improved in a number of areas - his work-rate has improved immensely, his work under the high ball is good, and his defense has improved (though he still does go missing on defense at times, however many NZ wings are guilty of this). The problem is that his work with ball in hand hasn't been that effective - he has huge amounts of ball (he has made almost twice as many runs as any other wing in the competition), yet despite this hasn't really done that much. Apart from the odd game he has seemed very passive with ball in hand - he has simply run up to the line and taken the tackle, rather than attempting to break the line, and when he has made a break he has rather meekly got himself tackled by the fullback, rather than try to beat him (there were several examples of this in the 1st Blues game and the Cheetahs game). I just wish he would back himself more with ball in hand (like Savea is now), as when he does that he is very hard to stop! In many ways you are correct - Gear has turned into the sort of wing that I like, and the sort that you don't!

Just a few stats (courtesy of http://superrugbyfantasy.foxsports.com.au/) to prove my point (aren't you glad I've come back to bore everyone with stats again ):


[TABLE="width: 700"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Runs[/TD]
[TD]Metres
[/TD]
[TD]Tries
[/TD]
[TD]Try assists[/TD]
[TD]Tackle busts[/TD]
[TD]Offloads[/TD]
[TD]Linebreaks[/TD]
[TD]Line break created[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]H Gear[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]139
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1302
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Z Guildford[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]77[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]751
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]J Savea[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]922
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]53
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]L Masaga[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]492
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]23
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]R Ranger[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]68[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]614
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]34[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]T Nanai-Williams[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]420
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]29[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S Maitland[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]451
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]R Wulf[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]429
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]22[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Taylor[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]67
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]921
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]B Smith[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]101[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1000
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]41
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I Dagg[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]73[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]633
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]34[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I'm certainly not advocating picking a team solely on offensive stats (if that was the case Taylor and Dagg would be well ahead of Ben Smith!), but these stats do show that despite receiving a lot of ball, Gear hasn't really done that much with it. Guildford has had only half as much ball, yet has made the same number of tackle busts and made more linebreaks (and Savea's stats are even more impressive!). One thing I do really like about Gear though is that he always makes it to (and often beyond) the advantage line giving the Highlanders front foot ball (whereas some player such as Guildford do struggle to do this, as you have pointed out before). I can see the advantage off having a reliable wing who sets up good go-forward ball, however Savea's rapid rise means they already have someone who can setup good go-forward ball, and is also able to break the line (almost at will at times!). If Savea wasn't there I would certainly be tempted to start Gear on the left wing (with Dagg/Guildford on the right).

BTW: This Gear/Guildford debate was about due - I was getting sick of us agreeing on everything

 

[nickdnz]

I don't think I said he has not been very good - he has been solid for the Highlanders, but he hasn't been in the sort of form that warrants selection the All Blacks starting 15, and I would have (just) preferred Taylor and Guildford over him in terms of the 30-man squad (though don't necessarily mind his inclusion, and would still have picked him over Wulf or any other non-selected outside back except Taylor). He certainly has improved in a number of areas - his work-rate has improved immensely, his work under the high ball is good, and his defense has improved (though he still does go missing on defense at times, however many NZ wings are guilty of this). The problem is that his work with ball in hand hasn't been that effective - he has huge amounts of ball (he has made almost twice as many runs as any other wing in the competition), yet despite this hasn't really done that much. Apart from the odd game he has seemed very passive with ball in hand - he has simply run up to the line and taken the tackle, rather than attempting to break the line, and when he has made a break he has rather meekly got himself tackled by the fullback, rather than try to beat him (there were several examples of this in the 1st Blues game and the Cheetahs game). I just wish he would back himself more with ball in hand (like Savea is now), as when he does that he is very hard to stop! In many ways you are correct - Gear has turned into the sort of wing that I like, and the sort that you don't!

Just a few stats (courtesy of http://superrugbyfantasy.foxsports.com.au/) to prove my point (aren't you glad I've come back to bore everyone with stats again ):


[TABLE="width: 700"]
<TBODY>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Runs
[/TD]
[TD]Tries
[/TD]
[TD]Try assists
[/TD]
[TD]Tackle busts
[/TD]
[TD]Offloads
[/TD]
[TD]Linebreaks
[/TD]
[TD]Line break created
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]H Gear
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]33
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Z Guildford
[/TD]
[TD]77
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]3
[/TD]
[TD]33
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]J Savea
[/TD]
[TD]77
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]52
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]L Masaga
[/TD]
[TD]40
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[TD]23
[/TD]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]R Ranger
[/TD]
[TD]68
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]3
[/TD]
[TD]34
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]T Nanai-Williams
[/TD]
[TD]50
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]29
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S Maitland
[/TD]
[TD]45
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]16
[/TD]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]R Wulf
[/TD]
[TD]47
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]0
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Taylor
[/TD]
[TD]65
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]3
[/TD]
[TD]49
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]B Smith
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]3
[/TD]
[TD]40
[/TD]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I Dagg
[/TD]
[TD]73
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]34
[/TD]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[/TR]
</TBODY>[/TABLE]

I'm certainly not advocating picking a team solely on offensive stats (if that was the case Taylor and Dagg would be well ahead of Ben Smith!), but these stats do show that despite receiving a lot of ball, Gear hasn't really done that much with it. Guildford has had only half as much ball, yet has made the same number of tackle busts and made more linebreaks (and Savea's stats are even more impressive!). One thing I do really like about Gear though is that he always makes it to (and often beyond) the advantage line giving the Highlanders front foot ball (whereas some player such as Guildford do struggle to do this, as you have pointed out before). I can see the advantage off having a reliable wing who sets up good go-forward ball, however Savea's rapid rise means they already have someone who can setup good go-forward ball, and is also able to break the line (almost at will at times!). If Savea wasn't there I would certainly be tempted to start Gear on the left wing (with Dagg/Guildford on the right).

BTW: This Gear/Guildford debate was about due - I was getting sick of us agreeing on everything

Haha, it's been a while. Interesting stats, what are the running metres like?

One of your points which I find very interesting is that he hasn't looked like he's backed himself with ball in hand and hasn't been breaking as many tackles. Simply put, that's totally right. However, I think this has little to do with what Hosea Gear is capable of but rather how he is being used, and it's my biggest issue when it comes to wingers these days. Hosea Gear has been making a huge number of runs this season. Like, a HUGE amount for a winger. What the Highlanders are doing that's really annoyed me, is that he is EVERYWHERE but on the wing. A number of times you see him running the inside channel of the 5/8ths, or get a pass just to make a few metres. I hate this with wingers. Some call it having a good work rate, but I feel that if you winger isn't on the wing when there is space out wide, then he's f*cked up. Looking at my favourite wingers in their primes, how often did Jonah Lomu or Joe Rokocoko not be on the wing when there was space? Barely ever. Savea has looked amazing this season, but except for the occasional set move he's on the wing, and he's always there on the left wing to get it in the corner.

As good as the Highlanders have been, I'd say they've been the second least creative side in NZ. They've been dominating in breakdowns, and a part of that is giving it to Gear very often to make 3-4 metres past the advantage line so they get quick ball, but their backline has looked a little hesitant and undynamic. I'm almost certain I've seen Thomson on the wing more this season than I have Gear. ANYWAY -

The point I'm trying to make is, with any luck the All Blacks selectors won't have Gear running around the field like a number 8, and instead have him on the wing OR if they insist on having him run around the field, then Carter and Sonny Bill Williams will give him more time and space to hit the line with momentum. SBW and Gear worked really well last year, so I think he'll do alright.

 

[DariusLovehall]

Haha, it's been a while. Interesting stats, what are the running metres like?

One of your points which I find very interesting is that he hasn't looked like he's backed himself with ball in hand and hasn't been breaking as many tackles. Simply put, that's totally right. However, I think this has little to do with what Hosea Gear is capable of but rather how he is being used, and it's my biggest issue when it comes to wingers these days. Hosea Gear has been making a huge number of runs this season. Like, a HUGE amount for a winger. What the Highlanders are doing that's really annoyed me, is that he is EVERYWHERE but on the wing. A number of times you see him running the inside channel of the 5/8ths, or get a pass just to make a few metres. I hate this with wingers. Some call it having a good work rate, but I feel that if you winger isn't on the wing when there is space out wide, then he's f*cked up. Looking at my favourite wingers in their primes, how often did Jonah Lomu or Joe Rokocoko not be on the wing when there was space? Barely ever. Savea has looked amazing this season, but except for the occasional set move he's on the wing, and he's always there on the left wing to get it in the corner.

As good as the Highlanders have been, I'd say they've been the second least creative side in NZ. They've been dominating in breakdowns, and a part of that is giving it to Gear very often to make 3-4 metres past the advantage line so they get quick ball, but their backline has looked a little hesitant and undynamic. I'm almost certain I've seen Thomson on the wing more this season than I have Gear. ANYWAY -

The point I'm trying to make is, with any luck the All Blacks selectors won't have Gear running around the field like a number 8, and instead have him on the wing OR if they insist on having him run around the field, then Carter and Sonny Bill Williams will give him more time and space to hit the line with momentum. SBW and Gear worked really well last year, so I think he'll do alright.

You sir are correct, Hosea has been used as a battering ram around the rucks and as an extra loose forward in close when the Highlanders are in their own half.
I don't think anyone in their right mind would think Guildford can beat a man one on one like Gear can ... No Way.
Guildford is fast and fearless and i think they are both great - Im just pointing that out ...

And to those people who don't think Ben Smith has the top end speed - I see the complete opposite // he looks hella quick and strong on my TV....

 

[Darwin]

Haha, it's been a while. Interesting stats, what are the running metres like?

I do have some running metre stats for all the players, but they haven't been updated yet after the weekends games - I will add them to the table once I get these. Gear is well out in front in total running metres, as you would expect he would be having made so many runs.

One of your points which I find very interesting is that he hasn't looked like he's backed himself with ball in hand and hasn't been breaking as many tackles. Simply put, that's totally right. However, I think this has little to do with what Hosea Gear is capable of but rather how he is being used, and it's my biggest issue when it comes to wingers these days. Hosea Gear has been making a huge number of runs this season. Like, a HUGE amount for a winger. What the Highlanders are doing that's really annoyed me, is that he is EVERYWHERE but on the wing. A number of times you see him running the inside channel of the 5/8ths, or get a pass just to make a few metres. I hate this with wingers. Some call it having a good work rate, but I feel that if you winger isn't on the wing when there is space out wide, then he's f*cked up. Looking at my favourite wingers in their primes, how often did Jonah Lomu or Joe Rokocoko not be on the wing when there was space? Barely ever. Savea has looked amazing this season, but except for the occasional set move he's on the wing, and he's always there on the left wing to get it in the corner.

As good as the Highlanders have been, I'd say they've been the second least creative side in NZ. They've been dominating in breakdowns, and a part of that is giving it to Gear very often to make 3-4 metres past the advantage line so they get quick ball, but their backline has looked a little hesitant and undynamic. I'm almost certain I've seen Thomson on the wing more this season than I have Gear. ANYWAY -

The point I'm trying to make is, with any luck the All Blacks selectors won't have Gear running around the field like a number 8, and instead have him on the wing OR if they insist on having him run around the field, then Carter and Sonny Bill Williams will give him more time and space to hit the line with momentum. SBW and Gear worked really well last year, so I think he'll do alright.

Really good reply Nick - I do agree with a lot of what you are saying there. Though I don't mind the Highlanders using Gear as a battering ram to setup quick go-forward ball on occasion (particularly from a scrum) I do agree they use him in this way far too often. The problem seems to be he is stuck in the same mind-set whenever he gets the ball - he has actually had the ball in space numerous occasions so far this season, but he is so stuck in the 'hit the tackler then setup go-forward ball' mindset, he seldom backs himself to beat a player one-on-one. If the All Blacks selectors can get him to back himself again that will be great, but this is yet to be seen (a few weeks again with Tietjens in the 7's would do him wonders!). Incidentally I feel Guildford can be very guilty of not backing himself at times too - as you often point out he has a habit of running up to the defensive line, hesitating, then getting smashed. When he actually backs himself he is actually a really dangerous player, as he is very quick and runs great lines (he was very effective against the Highlanders in the weekend).

Going back slightly to the work-rate thing - I don't actually consider making lots of runs in mid-field necessarily a sign of a good work-rate, more a sign of a team game-plan. When I think of work-rate I generally think of what players are doing when they don't have the ball - chasing kicks, getting in support, hitting breakdowns, chasing back in defense, or quickly dropping back to support the fullback after the opposition has kicked through. A lot of these things are very hard to assess while watching the game on the TV (as the cameras generally only follow what is happening within 5m of the ball..), and can only be judged by watching the game live at the ground. I have to say I have been very happy with Gears work-rate this season - I'd say his work-rate has been much better than Popoali'i, Piutau, and especially Poki (though not as good as Bakers, but Baker has a phenomenal work-rate and has deserved more starts in my opinion).

And to those people who don't think Ben Smith has the top end speed - I see the complete opposite // he looks hella quick and strong on my TV....

Ben Smith is pretty quick on my TV too - and pretty quick when I watch him live at the ground too!