Going to do a little depth and cap chart because I have an idea of what I want the experience profile to be for 2019 and I'll be able to analyse it when i see this. I'm going to grade the players 1-4 with 1 being a starter, 2 being somebody in a fight for a start or a definite bench player, 3 a squad player and 4 injury cover, it may be a bit simplistic but it makes sense to me.
Fullback
Rob Kearney (1) - 79
Andrew Conway (2) - 6 mostly on the wing
Jordan Larmour (3) - 0
Joey Carbery (3) - 6, all at 10
Tiernan O'Halloran - (4) - 6
Wings
Keith Earls (1) - 63
Jacob Stockdale (2) - 5
Andrew Conway (2) - 6
Fergus McFadden (3) - 33
Jordan Larmour (3) - 0
Adam Byrne (4) - 1
Darren Sweetnam (4) - 2
Rory O'Loughlin (1) - 1
Centres
Robbie Henshaw (1) - 32
Garry Ringrose (2) - 11
Bundee Aki (2) - 3
Chris Farrell (3) - 2
Rory Scannell (4) - 3
Stuart McCloskey (4) - 2
Outside Half
Johnny Sexton (1) - 69, how fitting... oi oi
Joey Carbery (2) - 6
Ian Keatley (3) - 7
Ross Byrne (4) - 0
Paddy Jackson not considered as odds are against him ever playing rugby in Ireland again
Scrum Half
Conor Murray (1) - 60
Luke McGrath (2) - 6
Kieron Marmion (3) - 18
John Cooney (4) - 0
Number 8
CJ Stander (1) - 19
Jamie Heaslip (1/2) - 95
Jack Conan (3) - 5
Max Deegan (4) - 0
Flankers
Sean O'Brien (1) - 51
Peter O'Mahoney (1) - 43
Josh Van der Flier (2/3) - 10
Dan Leavy (2/3) - 5
Rhys Ruddock (2/3) - 19
Tommy O'Donnell - (4) - 12
Jordi Murphy (4) - 18
Jack O'Donoghue (4) - 2
Sean Reidy (4) - 2
Locks
Iain Henderson (1) - 35
James Ryan (1) - 5
Devin Toner (2) - 54
Tadhg Beirne (3) - 0
Ultan Dillane (3/4) - 11
Quinn Roux (3/4) - 3
Tighthead Props
Tadhg Furlong (1) - 20
John Ryan (2) - 12
Andrew Porter (3) - 3
Finlay Bealham (4) - 7
Marty Moore (4) - 10
Hooker
Rory Best (1) - 107
Niall Scannell (2) - 7
Sean Cronin (3) - 57
Rob Herring (4) - 3
James Tracy (4) - 6
Loosehead Props
Cian Healy (1) - 74
Jack McGrath (2) - 43
Dave Kilcoyne (3) - 22
James Cronin (4) - 3
Based on nothing but my own observations I think the average player is confident and comfortable enough to play consistently at a high international class level at 30 caps, a solid if slightly risky starting option between 20-29, adept as a starter between 10-19 and a solid sub option between 5-9. With the exception of Johnny Sexton who we would be unable to beat England or NZ without and Conor Murray, Tadhg Furlong and Iain Henderson who I believe we could win one game but not two in a row against either of the aforementioned sides we have no other irreplaceable players. Of those I think Luke McGrath, Andrew Porter and James Ryan could get to a level that that is not the case with a bit of luck and the right amount of exposure. With 18 tests left I think Joe should be aiming to get 85% of his players into or exceeding the cap range that I have set out for each grade for the RWC, its very possible.
It has almost been achieved for flankers, the injury profiles of the Leinster trio in grade 2/3 has been slowing down but I believe Dan Leavy is good enough to be at a grade 1 level without 30 caps and VdF will likely hit 20 caps in the RWC group stages. I'd rate this area as an A.
It has already been exceeded at loosehead. A.
Tighthead looks certain to reach this range, the only question being whether or not to back Ryan over Porter. There's wiggle room here because I believe Porter has the potential to be a solid grade 2 player while in the grade 3 cap range. A
Number 8 depends on the return to fitness of Jamie Heaslip, with Jamie its an A but without him Conan is light on caps while Deegan needs exposure too, Stander's attrition somewhat makes up for the lack of experience. B.
Hooker - Depends on Rory Best, a decision on him making the RWC must be made after this tournament, strong 2, 3 and 4 options but Scannell could be a starter while in the grade 2 cap range and might be a weakness in potential late stages of an RWC. B.
Lock - James Ryan's ability again makes up for lack of caps, Beirne might be going in a little on the inexperienced side. B
Scrum Half - McGrath needs more minutes and trust, otherwise solid. B
Wings - Stockdale, Conway and Larmour need caps, Stockdale and Larmour are good enough to be better than their range would suggest but we are reliant on their emergence in the next 18 months. C.
Fullback - See Wings, subtract Stockdale. C.
Centre - While I believe Ringrose to already be a grade 1 standard player and Aki a grade 2 despite low caps, this is still weak as another grade 2 must emerge from one of the three others, sever lack of depth without much room for rotation without losing too much in the interim. D
Outside Half - Johnny goes down and we're limited to a semi at best, Carbery needs years to reach is level so that won't happen and Keatley and Byrne need caps too. Johnny's excellence has hampered depth here to the point where his potential unavailability stops this side from being world class while also not allowing rotation as players elsewhere will become better playing with him. D.
Obviously not an exact science and it doesn't account for special Larmour, Ryan and Ringrose type talents and isn't as strict in less specialist positions but it shows the places that need a lot of rotation and where it can be achieved and where we'll just have to rely on luck keeping the grade 1 players fit come RWC time. Rotate to **** in the back three outside France, England and Wales games while getting minutes for hookers, scrum halves and locks off the bench and in tier 2 clashes. If those selection rumours are true Schmidt seems think something similar, Niall Scannell's and Andrew Conway's injury are ill timed. It also shows whats required to displace guys like POM and Kearney who are older guys seen as weaker links in the starting XV, the talent is there but those young guys have to earn their minutes and prove their superior value which is no easy task against that caliber of player.
