I fancy Ireland to take this one. The main difference is Ireland are full of players who have won HECs while the Welsh have not anything near that experience. The Irish pack is also better. As usual the Welsh play a better brand of rugby and will probably look to go wide.
It might not be an exciting game either. During the 6 nations both teams just kicked it back to each other so it could go that way. I think it'll be a good game though.
Whilst I fully agree with you point regarding the Irish players ability to handle pressure games, I must disagree with your analysis of the packs.
Up front, I feel that Wales have a true advantage. Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins are two key components of the Welsh game and are undoubtedly among the best props in the world.
Cian Healy and Mike Ross have shown some good form throughout the tournament thus far, but I feel that Jenkins and Jones will have an edge in quality and match experience.
If we look at the second rows, while O'Connell is understandably the leader for both nations, I would rank Charteris/Jones/Davies all higher than O'Callaghan. They too can be relied upon to give Wales a solid scrum.
The back row is incredibly difficult to gauge. Both Stephen Ferris and Sean O'Brien have been forces in the back row, but the idea of playing two blindsides in the backrow is questionable. Sam Warburton's natural ability to play as an openside will give him an edge over O'Brien and provide Wales with a variety of skills in the back row, when Dan Lydiate and Toby Faletau are included for consideration.
Dan Lydiate is perhaps the better option for blindside than Ryan Jones. While he is only coming back from injury, I can see him being selected over Jones when you compare recent performances. Dan Lydiate has an immense workrate and unafraid of looking for work. Toby Faletau's performances have been mixed so far. He has put in plenty of tackles and not afraid to hit rucks, but he needs to look to carry more and provide an option as a supporting runner for the backline.
I would like to see a backline consisting of Mike Phillips, Rhys Priestland, Shane Williams, Jamie Roberts, James Hook, George North, and Leigh Halfpenny. Priestland has looked better than Stephen Jones so far, and has done little to make him a candidate to be dropped. James Hook would slot in well alongside the in-form Jamie Roberts and offer Priestland a playmaking option outside if he is under pressure. Shane Williams is too valuable to be dropped, while George North's current form puts him on the other wing. Leigh Halfpenny is currently our best option for fullback. Lee Byrne has just not shown the form necessary to start and could indeed be a liability in this match. While I feel that James Hook would not cause us any worries at fullback, we need a player that can hit the line at pace and attack from deep. Leigh Halfpenny has reminded us just how good he really his. He is stronger than he looks and possesses a massive boot.
The back replacements would be along the lines of Lloyd Williams, Scott Williams, and Jonathan Davies. Two centres might seem to be an odd choice, but between Jamie Roberts and James Hook there is coverage for nearly every backline position. I have really not been impressed with Tavis Knoyle, while Lloyd Williams has looked both calm and eager when coming off the bench. I could see him keeping his position in the matchday squad following the World Cup.