My friend is working as a doctor at a hospital in the Northern Cape. He believes a sharp spike might be the best way to deal with the virus. The hospitals are filled to capacity in most cases anyhow, and yes a spike might lead to more loss of life because people can't find the beds they need or the ventilators to support them. He believes that the yearly bunch who need hospitalization for the flu will get the Coronavirus and they will probably struggle (to put it lightly).
So why does he think that the government just allowing it to spike might be a feasible option? Especially considering the fact that much more people will die as opposed to trying to flatten the curve?
It's weighing the economic impact and the related famine and food shortages of a prolonged economic shutdown that South Africa won't be able to deal with vs the extra deaths of a spike.
Medical professionals don't want to get into a situation where they choose what sick person gets a bed and who does not (Who will die), so you can try and flatten the curve and let it go over a few months. This equals fewer deaths in the short term from the virus and allows the countries medical system to better deal with it.
To flatten the curve with such a contagious virus, an economic shutdown of all businesses is needed now, self-isolation mandatory. For everyone.
Our economy is already between a rock and a hard place, the debt of our state-owned electricity producer is already causing the interest of their debt to be more than their entire income.
The famine and deaths that will be caused by an economic meltdown in South Africa will far outweigh the deaths of a spike in cases. Businesses here can't afford to not work, workers can't afford not to work, they live on a day to day basis to feed their families.
Most Europeans can afford to panic buy, most Africans cant. They need to make enough money to buy basic food supplies such as Maize meal. Our economy might be irreparable for close to two years dealing with the aftereffects and we might be looking at millions dead from the economic after-effects. The unemployment number could jump from the current 24% (46+- youth unemployment) to levels never seen before.
If they let it spike now then the long term economic death toll could be mitigated, with the short term cost of life, unfortunately, this is the situation. People WILL die, the question is how do we minimize it long term?
Im not steadfast in my opinion, if someone brings forward a valid argument of why a spike would be much more catastrophic than the economic aftereffects than I am willing to listen. I would appreciate input from different schools of thought.
Just keep in mind that im referring to an African perspective of dealing with the virus. In Europe, I think flattening the curve is good because the people and government are better equipped to deal with the economic aftereffects. In Africa people will be let go from their work the public hospitals here are anyways filled to the brim and has bad service even without the Corona virus, if they dont let it spike then over the long terms poor citizens will anyway get the virus and most probably we still wont be able to deal with the populace at public hospitals but in addtion food shortages and inability to support their families might cause much worse effects. Lets not even mention the potential for riots in the case of an economic meltdown.
Not trying to fearmonger, just trying to brainstorm whether Africa does infact need a Africa centric sollution instead of just copying and pasting what the Europeans and Asians have been doing.
