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[COVID-19] General Discussion

Which Tyler said:
View attachment 8130
20/03/20 UK = 177
21/03/20 UK = 233
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Japan had the right idea - as soon as they saw it starting to get bad they shut down all the schools, all sports and indoor large gatherings (indoor theme parks, museums etc. etc.)
This really nipped it in the bud and they've not even had to cancel restaurants/bars and they've lifted the quarantine of Hokkaido.

When I flew out to Japan the UK had 85 cases, and when I came home we had 3,600+
Japan are still sub 1k (I think they've had about 150 new cases in the last two weeks?)

They've gone really full on with the cleaning though - you can't move for hand sanitiser out there. Every single bar/restaurant/shop has sanitizer at the entrance, the arcades have multiple dotted all over the place. The people who stole from the NHS, here, would have had a goddamn field day.


Also, to play devils advocate, some people do think that Japan might be hiding some so that they don't have to cancel the olympics
 
They will likely have to bring in rationing because people are still not heeding the advice not to strip shelves and just being selfish fcukers thinking of themselves and their families. Yes there are a few who are selfless and credit to them.

But also Supermarkets have little incentive not to limit supply too much. Yes, there limit per person etc etc. But People will always find ways round it unless there is now a system in place to forced rationing imo.

They are one of the few businesses to make a killing from this crisis in a unless something is done.
 
Which Tyler said:
http://buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach
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If (and I mean if) this is true then I'm even more ****** off with our government's strategy as they took the riskier option based supposedly on the science and it turns out the advisors weren't in agreement at all and they tossed a coin (or went with the least economically damaging one).

It also shows that they are playing at politics and spin instead of just focusing on doing a job because apparently implementing these measures has all been part of the plan and they are doing the right thing at the right time. However, if this is true then clearly they made a mistake and the delay will cost lives.

I understand the argument that if they admit mistakes they lose public confidence and trust, but they will lose that anyway if we end up in a similar position to Italy and will be criticised far more as they had access to more information from other countries.

Far too many people still aren't taking this seriously enough and based on this the government has to accept some of the blame.

I'm not sure what will happen next because unless the British public starts following the government's instructions from now, they will have to enforce a lockdown and that brings further problems.
 
TRF_Olyy said:
Japan had the right idea - as soon as they saw it starting to get bad they shut down all the schools, all sports and indoor large gatherings (indoor theme parks, museums etc. etc.)
This really nipped it in the bud and they've not even had to cancel restaurants/bars and they've lifted the quarantine of Hokkaido.

When I flew out to Japan the UK had 85 cases, and when I came home we had 3,600+
Japan are still sub 1k (I think they've had about 150 new cases in the last two weeks?)

They've gone really full on with the cleaning though - you can't move for hand sanitiser out there. Every single bar/restaurant/shop has sanitizer at the entrance, the arcades have multiple dotted all over the place. The people who stole from the NHS, here, would have had a goddamn field day.


Also, to play devils advocate, some people do think that Japan might be hiding some so that they don't have to cancel the olympics
Click to expand...

I've been to 23 countries (inc. the USA where I live) and Japan is by far the cleanest one I've been too. So I'm not surprised they took such a quick response.
 
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Reiser99 said:
If (and I mean if) this is true then I'm even more ****** off with our government's strategy as they took the riskier option based supposedly on the science and it turns out the advisors weren't in agreement at all and they tossed a coin (or went with the least economically damaging one).

It also shows that they are playing at politics and spin instead of just focusing on doing a job because apparently implementing these measures has all been part of the plan and they are doing the right thing at the right time. However, if this is true then clearly they made a mistake and the delay will cost lives.

I understand the argument that if they admit mistakes they lose public confidence and trust, but they will lose that anyway if we end up in a similar position to Italy and will be criticised far more as they had access to more information from other countries.

Far too many people still aren't taking this seriously enough and based on this the government has to accept some of the blame.

I'm not sure what will happen next because unless the British public starts following the government's instructions from now, they will have to enforce a lockdown and that brings further problems.
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that is unfortunately the big weakness of a liberal western democracy in the face of an invisible enemy. Mobilizing our society to do the right thing for each other in such a short space of time just isn't within a lot of people's DNA. Yes Government takes the blame, but they can't suddenly become an authoritarian state and just lock people down straight away. They are giving us a choice atm.

Unfortunately, if the worst case scenario does come to fruition and we are heading towards an Italy/Spain scenario and Drs have to start choosing who lives and who dies because ***** just think it's a laugh and being overblown then Government will have no choice but to lock the whole country down.
 
So here's my issue with blaming the government entirely on this one. People aren't obeying social distancing advice it's been quite clear what to do since Monday. But businesses aren't listening, people are still going out in groups etc.

I'm not even convinced a legally mandated lockdown would work, it might do in more metropolitan areas but I'm unsure we have the means and enough to abide by it.

Heres some things though because everyone's focusing on deaths in the past couple of days.

At 5,018 confirmed cases we have 144, Italy were at somewhere between 197 and 233. We also know we actually have more cases than that due to our testing capacity and only testing the seriously ill.

Social distancing orders only came in 6 days ago its effect (if any) likely won't be seen on cases/death rate yet if we assume a 5 day incubation period plus X days before someone gets tested.
 
ncurd said:
So here's my issue with blaming the government entirely on this one. People aren't obeying social distancing advice it's been quite clear what to do since Monday. But businesses aren't listening, people are still going out in groups etc.

I'm not even convinced a legally mandated lockdown would work, it might do in more metropolitan areas but I'm unsure we have the means and enough to abide by it.

Heres some things though because everyone's focusing on deaths in the past couple of days.

At 5,018 confirmed cases we have 144, Italy were at somewhere between 197 and 233. We also know we actually have more cases than that due to our testing capacity and only testing the seriously ill.

Social distancing orders only came in 6 days ago its effect (if any) likely won't be seen on cases/death rate yet if we assume a 5 day incubation period plus X days before someone gets tested.
Click to expand...

I get the issue about the public actually listening I do. However the government started off with a strategy of mitigating it (possibly to try and develop herd immunity, depends on if you believe them) and basically said unless you had the virus keep going about your business. However, it was already clear the virus spreads before symptoms and some people don't even get symptoms, but the Government's approach has seemed so relaxed compared to others that it made the public not take the virus seriously enough. When they realised it wasn't going to work they changed tact and brought in the measures, but by now the public were confused by the government's approach and many who might have listened, didn't. So yes while I think you would still have people ignoring the governments instructions, I think it would have been less if the government hadn't tried to mitigate for so long and tried to suppress (even if it wasn't going to completely work). I do have some sympathy though with the view point that they weren't sure if it could be sustained by the public.

As for whether it would work I think we're past that stage now. Unlike other countries that acted quicker or China where the cases were predominantly in one region, we have cases all over the country and the reality is because of a lack of testing (won't go into who's fault this is, but we have certainly tested less than other countries) we don't actually know how many people do have the virus. It was estimated between 5,000-10,000 last week and I commented on how big a difference that would be as number's increase, because now it's estimated between 40,000 and 80,000 (that's not complex science that's just them doubling the numbers as cases increase, I did it previously on here). a difference of 40,000 is a large unknown and the gap only widens. Basically a complete lockdown won't work because it's almost everywhere and I don't think the country has the numbers to support it. Maybe a volunteer service like the guys who used to check people's lights were out during the Blitz could help. But then how do you enforce it?

Actually trying to replicate that Blitz mentality would be the aim, but was it simply the generation was brought up to do the right thing? People could accept the rules better with a visible enemy, or was it the government's approach that convinced people? I honestly don't know.

As for the financial measures they are more at the moment than I expected, but less than other countries and as the Buzzfeed article points out, many countries have had a lot more coordination on the measures, where as Britain's is changing every few days. Nothing says no plan than constantly having to edit and add to as things get worse. Most similar country seems to be the U.S and we all know who's in charge there.

Finally I'm also fed up with some of the rhetoric such as, "right thing at the right time" or "this is the first time ever a government has stepped in to help people's wages" for me it's just spin on what is a national crisis and the government is trying to make itself look good in the way it's handling this. I want the government to stop worrying about how it is perceived now and let history decide because losing some votes far less important than people's lives. Yes they can't be 100% honest, but they need to be clearer and more frank with the public without worrying if it will cost them, because their strategies aren't working (they have admitted this) and people are still not listening and they have to accept some if not most of the responsibility for this.
 
There's a big canal junction in my village and I've honestly never seen it so busy as this weekend - it's not even like the weather has been that good or anything, but people have been indoors for a few days so flock out and end up in huge crowds.

It feels like people have the wrong mentality with this - it's not like when there's a terrorist attack and people say "we can't let them win, we can't let them change the way we're living our lives. Stiff upper lip, carry on as normal." A virus doesn't care about winning or losing.
I think the blitz spirit is the opposite of what we need - we need people hiding in doors for a few weeks (plus)
 
If fear the Government's behavioural scientists almost as much as I fear the virus at this point. There was an interesting article the other day about the stock the U.K. Government put in this. However, "nudging" is not working and is the wrong tool for this particular situation. It'll lead to many more people dying. People are being mollycoddled because the Government doesn't want to seem authoritarian. It's one more abrogation of their responsibility to actually act rather than talking about acting. It's already clear that people are being selfish morons. Use the tools of the state to change that behaviour. Now.

You don't have to go to far up thread to see people calling out the government for doing little or nothing to "contain" (flights form all over with zero checking) and then embarking down what now looks like an unworkable strategy of "mitigation" only to have the rug pulled when someone actually looked at real world experience rather than computer models. You had madness like Cheltenham going ahead with stupid justifications like "pubs are more dangerous" whilst pubs were still open. These were deliberate decisions and can't be easily washed away with the "the science changed so we had to". China and Italy looked pretty catastrophic way before Imperial College published. Vallance and Whitty were gambling and they backed the wrong horse. Accountability matters.

We're now in "suppress" (too late) and despite some fine words you only need to look to see what people are actually doing. They are gathering together and acting like it's a ******* holiday. Now I can only do what's right for me and my family which means obeying the rules. However, I reserve the right to point out to the vast majority that they are the cause of the situation we are likely to find ourselves in a little under 20 days. I'm minded of the pictures of people in Thailand in 2004 who went to investigate where the sea had gone or calmly sat around not doing anything. Only to be swept to their deaths moments later. This however is worse. People are being told what is coming and they are choosing to ignore it. They should be held accountable for their actions too.

Also as Reiser has pointed out. People are taking the ****. My wife works as a teacher. We know people who are choosing to send their kids to school despite one or both WFH. Again the idea of doing the right thing for wider society seems utterly beyond many.

To all of the rugby community I hope that you say safe and well. Look out for those less fortunate
 
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My girlfriend and I went to the forest just now to get some exercise. Stayed well away from everybody. Yet others were all congregating around a nearby cafe until police came and roped it off to stop people getting too close. Even then they are all sitting next to each other. Large family group where they have met up with friends. Not sure what people don't get about this.
 
Reiser99 said:
My girlfriend and I went to the forest just now to get some exercise. Stayed well away from everybody. Yet others were all congregating around a nearby cafe until police came and roped it off to stop people getting too close. Even then they are all sitting next to each other. Large family group where they have met up with friends. Not sure what people don't get about this.
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Cafe near me is open for take out only....but has a large seating/picnic area next to it which is rammed
It's mental.
 
The Government are now basically issuing an ultimatum. Stay two meters apart in public spaces or tougher measures will be introduced i.e. complete lockdown with everyone having to stay at home. Those selfish morons who are defying the advice are going to ruin it for everyone including those who are complying with the two meter rule.
 

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