[COVID-19] General Discussion

[die_mole]

Yeah, herd immunity means everyone has to have had the virus at some point. We don't have the ability to regulate how much of the virus someone gets or who gets the virus. Herd immunity would be a reckless strategy as it's supposed to protect people with immunity issues, but we are just exposing them right now.

 

[duncanb]

The only way you acquire herd immunity via an actual illness is by going through a much worse version of what Italy are going through right now.

You think that's a good idea?

I know you hate everything that's been done however your initial prediction was wrong.
I personally don't believe in herd immunity but it's hard to say that a whole load of people have a natural immunity to this upper tract virus as SARS or MERS .
Yes it will get worse before better.
If your that worried or just someone who likes to profess the end of the world then the 4th horseman has been released see Revelations in that strange book called the Bible.
Yes I am a religious person to save on your usual crass reply to anyone who disagrees with you heyho looking forward to your tyraid.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

The only way you acquire herd immunity via an actual illness is by going through a much worse version of what Italy are going through right now.

You think that's a good idea?

Clearly not and that's also not true.
It's not like we're going on with life as normal. Sky did a very good piece today on how they're trying to drip feed it into multiple smaller spikes rather than one large one in order to control it

 

[Al Bangor]

I saw on the news where a Doctor from UCLA said that you should at least where a bandana if you can't find a mask. So I'll look like an outlaw when I go to the supermarket.

 

[ncurd]

I saw on the news where a Doctor from UCLA said that you should at least where a bandana if you can't find a mask. So I'll look like an outlaw when I go to the supermarket.

That doctor is a bloody idiot.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dis...9/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

 

[Which Tyler]

Yeah, herd immunity means everyone has to have had the virus at some point. We don't have the ability to regulate how much of the virus someone gets or who gets the virus. Herd immunity would be a reckless strategy as it's supposed to protect people with immunity issues, but we are just exposing them right now.

That's not how herd immunity works.

Herd immunity means that enough people are immune that it's highly, highly unlikely for an infected person to transmit the infection to a non-immune person.
The percentage of the population required for that depends on how contagious the infection is (the R0); something like measles has a high R0 or around 12-18, meaning that 1 infected person can expect to introduce the virus to 12-18 other people. So herd immunity means a high enough proportion of the population has immunity that none of those 12-18 people are non-immune; which is somewhere around 95%.

The R0 for COVID-19 is though to be 2-3, so each infected person is likely to introduce the virus to 2-3 other people; so you only need 60-70% of the population to have immunity for herd immunity.

Herd immunity doesn't mean that no-one gets it, and everyone is immune; it means that those who can't risk gaining immunity are highly unlikely to ever come into contact with the infection.

Once herd immunity is gained, the disease is not eradicated; just extremely rare. Once herd immunity is lost, the disease can become rampant - at least in pockets (again, see the example of measles where herd immunity had been obtained, until Andrew Wakefield fucked up, and now it has been lost in some segments of the population, and we now get flare-ups)

 

[die_mole]

That's not how herd immunity works.

Herd immunity means that enough people are immune that it's highly, highly unlikely for an infected person to transmit the infection to a non-immune person.
The percentage of the population required for that depends on how contagious the infection is (the R0); something like measles has a high R0 or around 12-18, meaning that 1 infected person can expect to introduce the virus to 12-18 other people. So herd immunity means a high enough proportion of the population has immunity that none of those 12-18 people are non-immune; which is somewhere around 95%.

The R0 for COVID-19 is though to be 2-3, so each infected person is likely to introduce the virus to 2-3 other people; so you only need 60-70% of the population to have immunity for herd immunity.

Herd immunity doesn't mean that no-one gets it, and everyone is immune; it means that those who can't risk gaining immunity are highly unlikely to ever come into contact with the infection.

Once herd immunity is gained, the disease is not eradicated; just extremely rare. Once herd immunity is lost, the disease can become rampant - at least in pockets (again, see the example of measles where herd immunity had been obtained, until Andrew Wakefield fucked up, and now it has been lost in some segments of the population, and we now get flare-ups)

Eh, I was hyperbolic in my first sentence but I touched on how herd immunity is supposed to protect those that don't have individual immunity later.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Put aside that this did originate from China and they will be held accountable for hiding it from the world when it first came to fruition in December. Trump is already deliberately trying to change the narrative to distract from his mishandling of the virus in the USA. Despicable!

 

[ncurd]

View attachment 8129
Put aside that this did originate from China and they will be held accountable for hiding it from the world when it first came to fruition in December. Trump is already deliberately trying to change the narrative to distract from his mishandling of the virus in the USA. Despicable!

I can't remember the date it started but apparently WHO and other organisations stopped naming diseases after where they came from because of negativities that occur to that place and people even if it's eradicated. Still Trump a twat and knows what he is doing.

I'm also unconvinced by China's no domestic cases...

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I can't remember the date it started but apparently WHO and other organisations stopped naming diseases after where they came from because of negativities that occur to that place and people even if it's eradicated. Still Trump a twat and knows what he is doing.

I'm also unconvinced by China's no domestic cases...

Oh absolutely. This is a worldwide problem. I don't believe the numbers stated in say Russia or the Czech Republic showing very low deaths. The numbers just aren't accurate because not everyone has been tested. This is an information war, as well as a public health crisis.

Yeah, the Spanish Flu which killed millions post WW1 did not originate from Spain, it most likely originated in Kansas, USA and brought over by the American troops to Europe and spread to the rest of the world. And that was over 100 years ago. But history will always remember it by the Spanish Flu name only because Spain were the only ones reporting the disease at the time because their media weren't suppressing it because they were neutral at the time.

Classic Trump playbook to distract and unite against a foreign enemy despite him closing the Pandemic office in the White house in 2018 and messing up by turning down test kits from Germany back in February to rely on CDC made test kits, which turned out to be faulty. Just hopes he gets his comeuppance at the ballot box this November, if the Presidential election does go ahead.



*Facepalm* Contradicted by Dr Fauci straight after making an incorrect statement on a malaria drug being effective on Convid-19.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0877rxr

scary stuff.

 

[Reiser99]

These stats are scary. If it plays out even remotely like China or Italy then we are in for a worse time than them. People still aren't listening and putting people's lives at risk. We are open on Monday for key workers and already we know of parents who either misleading about their job to send their child to school or could keep them at home with one parent, but because the other parent qualifies they are being sent in anyway because it gives the other parent a break. Government has said the measures aren't having the impact desired and it seems the only way it will happen is a complete lockdown with military and police enforcing it, because quite frankly there are far too many selfish people who only think about themselves.

 

[ncurd]

I think I'm just taking attitude I'm doing what's 'right' and given up on other people.

So I'm home working it's enforced but I can go in if I really want to (some are). My wife isn't despite being 'vulnerable' (asthma) but that's because her work are arseholes but she gets made redundant in 2 weeks (another set of fun for us to deal with). We go shopping every 3-4 days and I exercise by running on my own currently. I'm not visiting elderly relatives or my sister who is immune compromised. At which point I just don't what more I can do and getting the message out there is making duck all difference from either the panic buyers or the 'its just the flu'

 

[Reiser99]

I think I'm just taking attitude I'm doing what's 'right' and given up on other people.

So I'm home working it's enforced but I can go in if I really want to (some are). My wife isn't despite being 'vulnerable' (asthma) but that's because her work are arseholes but she gets made redundant in 2 weeks (another set of fun for us to deal with). We go shopping every 3-4 days and I exercise by running on my own currently. I'm not visiting elderly relatives or my sister who is immune compromised. At which point I just don't what more I can do and getting the message out there is making duck all difference from either the panic buyers or the 'its just the flu'

Ideally I imagine you'd like a longer break between shops, but because it's almost impossible to buy everything in one go at the moment people are forced to go more often to get the things they need. That's another consequence of panic buying. First the idiots actually create the situation they were afraid of and then they force everyone to go to the shops more often as they can't buy what they need increasing the chance of the virus spreading. The worst thing is it won't affect idiots like them, but innocent people who tried to do the right thing.

 

[ncurd]

It's our usual shopping pattern (buy for weekdays then buy for weekend) and Wuhan it's how often people are allowed out (I think my cousin said they were allowed out to shop every 3-4 days) so you don't really need to shop less often.

The food thing is driving me nuts though but it has to die down eventually. Because the only people left shopping will be non panic buyers.

 

[Amiga500]

I know you hate everything that's been done however your initial prediction was wrong.

What was my initial prediction?

**** hitting the fan? Or timescales?


edit: Maybe you wanna read back through the full thread. I've been right far more often than I've been wrong. Unfortunately.

 

[Amiga500]

Sky did a very good piece today on how they're trying to drip feed it into multiple smaller spikes rather than one large one in order to control it

They only started seriously shutting stuff down last week!

In 3 weeks time, if the NHS is still coping, then we'll be in a better position. I fear they waited too long. (and I also fear there are too many stupid people in the country. If only the virus restricted itself to stupid people.)

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

They only started seriously shutting stuff down last week!

In 3 weeks time, if the NHS is still coping, then we'll be in a better position. I fear they waited too long.

Time will tell I guess... I'm just gonna trust till I'm proved wrong I guess

 

[Amiga500]

Time will tell I guess... I'm just gonna trust till I'm proved wrong I guess

Very few of the reporters have demonstrated an ability to grasp anything even fundamental about this.

It kinda makes me wonder just what else we take for given from the news that is as inaccurate as f**k!

 

[Amiga500]

Take a half hour and listen to this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0877mb2

I'm no fan of the fat useless f**ker that is Stephen Nolan - but this call was excellent - more due to the caller than him. But please listen to this.