[COVID-19] General Discussion

[TRF_Olyy]

22/03/20 UK = 281

How does this match up vs Italy?

 

[Bada-Bing!]

And now Merkel is in quarantine after meeting with Dr who has tested positive.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

How does this match up vs Italy?

per WT's post Italy were at 366 on 8 March and we are +14 days. But deaths is one measure, but the recovery of those who have had it, recovered from it and may have permanent damage to their lungs Is not being reflected in the figures.

 

[Yoshimitsu]

And now Merkel is in quarantine after meeting with Dr who has tested positive.

Christ! If Dr Who can get this we're stuffed!

 

[Amiga500]

At 5,018 confirmed cases we have 144, Italy were at somewhere between 197 and 233. We also know we actually have more cases than that due to our testing capacity and only testing the seriously ill.

Italy has an older population, and I think got extra unlucky in that an asymptomatic person was around a couple of hospitals early on spreading to vulnerable.

 

[McTallshort]

How does this match up vs Italy?

Numbers are not the whole picture. We are roughly the same as Italy in terms of deaths but ours is a 4% death rate, Italy's is 10%.

 

[unrated]

My friend is working as a doctor at a hospital in the Northern Cape. He believes a sharp spike might be the best way to deal with the virus. The hospitals are filled to capacity in most cases anyhow, and yes a spike might lead to more loss of life because people can't find the beds they need or the ventilators to support them. He believes that the yearly bunch who need hospitalization for the flu will get the Coronavirus and they will probably struggle (to put it lightly).

So why does he think that the government just allowing it to spike might be a feasible option? Especially considering the fact that much more people will die as opposed to trying to flatten the curve?
It's weighing the economic impact and the related famine and food shortages of a prolonged economic shutdown that South Africa won't be able to deal with vs the extra deaths of a spike.

Medical professionals don't want to get into a situation where they choose what sick person gets a bed and who does not (Who will die), so you can try and flatten the curve and let it go over a few months. This equals fewer deaths in the short term from the virus and allows the countries medical system to better deal with it.

To flatten the curve with such a contagious virus, an economic shutdown of all businesses is needed now, self-isolation mandatory. For everyone.
Our economy is already between a rock and a hard place, the debt of our state-owned electricity producer is already causing the interest of their debt to be more than their entire income.
The famine and deaths that will be caused by an economic meltdown in South Africa will far outweigh the deaths of a spike in cases. Businesses here can't afford to not work, workers can't afford not to work, they live on a day to day basis to feed their families.

Most Europeans can afford to panic buy, most Africans cant. They need to make enough money to buy basic food supplies such as Maize meal. Our economy might be irreparable for close to two years dealing with the aftereffects and we might be looking at millions dead from the economic after-effects. The unemployment number could jump from the current 24% (46+- youth unemployment) to levels never seen before.

If they let it spike now then the long term economic death toll could be mitigated, with the short term cost of life, unfortunately, this is the situation. People WILL die, the question is how do we minimize it long term?

Im not steadfast in my opinion, if someone brings forward a valid argument of why a spike would be much more catastrophic than the economic aftereffects than I am willing to listen. I would appreciate input from different schools of thought.
Just keep in mind that im referring to an African perspective of dealing with the virus. In Europe, I think flattening the curve is good because the people and government are better equipped to deal with the economic aftereffects. In Africa people will be let go from their work the public hospitals here are anyways filled to the brim and has bad service even without the Corona virus, if they dont let it spike then over the long terms poor citizens will anyway get the virus and most probably we still wont be able to deal with the populace at public hospitals but in addtion food shortages and inability to support their families might cause much worse effects. Lets not even mention the potential for riots in the case of an economic meltdown.

Not trying to fearmonger, just trying to brainstorm whether Africa does infact need a Africa centric sollution instead of just copying and pasting what the Europeans and Asians have been doing.

 

[ncurd]

Despite the governments in/action here's the real problem the UK is now facing in a nutshell.

https://twitter.com/BendyBen999/status/1241443836230021120?s=19

 

[BiggusLaddus]

Just google the photos of Matlock, Snowdonia or the Tesco at Dudley from the weekend.

We are all ******.

 

[General Melchett]

What I don't understand is that people who want to go outside for walks/fresh air are heading to places which are traditionally popular and busy, particularly when the weather is nice. Go off the beaten track and disperse where it's easier to stay two meters apart FFS. A curfew for everyone is inevitable thanks to the selfish, inconsiderate and defiant minority.

A friend told me that he had been invited to an after work lock in drinking session at his office this Friday. Shocking! With pubs and bars closed I fear that house parties will also have an adverse impact.

 

[Which Tyler]

Despite the governments in/action here's the real problem the UK is now facing in a nutshell.

https://twitter.com/BendyBen999/status/1241443836230021120?s=19

Whilst, they ARE taking some actions now (so far, too little too late in terms of policy - though I do allow for honest mistakes, but excellent in terms of finance) - but what we see on te graphs, and in the hospitals comes at a 2 week delay from any action - if only we'd known this earlier, ideally by having different countries suffering before us, and using different strategies, so that we'd know what worked.
If only we lived in such a world.

 

[ncurd]

What I don't understand is that people who want to go outside for walks/fresh air are heading to places which are traditionally popular and busy, particularly when the weather is nice. Go off the beaten track and disperse where it's easier to stay two meters apart FFS. A curfew for everyone is inevitable thanks to the selfish, inconsiderate and defiant minority.

A friend told me that he had been invited to an after work lock in drinking session at his office this Friday. Shocking! With pubs and bars closed I fear that house parties will also have an adverse impact.

What I find mystifying is I don't know of anyone defiantly breaking the advice (actually that not true I do know of a bunch of family members meeting up over several days because of mothers day). Anyone I know who went out this weekend made it a point they stayed away from being crowds from their own group who they would of been in a house with otherwise. Same for panic buyers.

Whilst, they ARE taking some actions now (so far, too little too late in terms of policy - though I do allow for honest mistakes, but excellent in terms of finance) - but what we see on te graphs, and in the hospitals comes at a 2 week delay from any action - if only we'd known this earlier, ideally by having different countries suffering before us, and using different strategies, so that we'd know what worked.
If only we lived in such a world.

I don't particularly want to talk about where and when the government took the correct actions. Its done now and can wait for the inquiry at the end. I do have some sympathy for them in regards to social distancing not being adhered to (it remains to be seen if its going to make a difference, its hard to belive it will if people aren't going to do it) as opposed to getting a full lockdown (I'm unconvinced we be able to enforce it enough with the amount of defying social distancing).

Simply put if people adhered to it would make a massive impact (and last week was about ramping up the measures rather than sudden change, there is also an argument for their mixed messaging and being poor at getting that out, again inquiry) so government thought stupidly they could trust us and we'd listen, there would be no need for drastic measures except if things became critical.

But nope seams like we have way too many idiotic pricks in this country. I just hope they are the ones to get it and suffer horribly rather than people like my wife who stayed in all weekend but has to go to work today.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Yeah, the early reporting of it either being the end of the world or literally nothing to worry about has ****** with the public response.
You've got people fist fighting over toilet roll thinking it's the apocalypse, and then you've got people having a pissup down the park because it's nothing to worry about and just a cold.

 

[Amiga500]

I know its not true, but its funny.

Go get your essential latté now:

 

[Reiser99]

Turned up at school and were told we could have up to 125 kids. Luckily it seems parents have got the message and only 37 turned up and at least a few shouldn't be in.

 

[ncurd]

Yeah, the early reporting of it either being the end of the world or literally nothing to worry about has ****** with the public response.
You've got people fist fighting over toilet roll thinking it's the apocalypse, and then you've got people having a pissup down the park because it's nothing to worry about and just a cold.

And the real answer is it's neither. It's a serious virus but if people adhere to advice the minimum(ish) amount of people will die. But nobody is really in for nuance these days.

Every shop in Britain should be banned from selling Keep Calm and Carry On stuff after this.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

And the real answer is it's neither. It's a serious virus but if people adhere to advice the minimum(ish) amount of people will die. But nobody is really in for nuance these days.

Every shop in Britain should be banned from selling Keep Calm and Carry On stuff after this.

Ennit,
Treat it seriously, but don't panic. It's not that hard to find the middle ground, but it eludes a lot of people.

 

[ncurd]

Turned up at school and were told we could have up to 125 kids. Luckily it seems parents have got the message and only 37 turned up and at least a few shouldn't be in.

That's good at least, I think like panic buying it could be a relative small amount of people not adhering to social distancing. However there's litreally no way of knowing for as Which Tyler said for about 2 weeks of what effect its happening. The government waiting for that data will sadly be too long.

 

[FLOBALOB]

The actions of the over 70s in their stubborness is appalling, honestly i'm literally speechless. I've seen numerous elderly people this morning acting as if there's nothing going on. Just seen a man in his 80s ,who has leukaemia , get out of his car and join the queue at the P.O.. He has family nearby so i dont know what they're doing.FFS.
On the other hand I dont think i've seen a solitary child this morning , which has surprised me.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

That's good at least, I think like panic buying it could be a relative small amount of people not adhering to social distancing. However there's litreally no way of knowing for as Which Tyler said for about 2 weeks of what effect its happening. The government waiting for that data will sadly be too long.

Our health minister (useless pile of shite but sure look) has said that recent cases have notably fewer close contacts as a result of social distancing. Not much, but something.