Bledisloe Cup: Match 2 - New Zealand vs. Australia (17/08/2019)

[Hulk Hogan]

I don't understand why they bothered to pick AAC. Rest of the team I'm perfectly happy though.

 

[Derpus]

Neither.

 

[Brigantine]

If Hansen delivers on the RWC 3peat, he will be forgiven for anything else that happens.
But what if he doesn't win the RWC? Then what will he be judged on? (for reference, Hansen has been head coach since 2012, and assistant coach since 2004)

Here are the Golden Era records and stats at stake in this game...

Even if the ABs win this weekend, (paying $1.17) we will most likely lose the top rankings spot in the next 2 weeks (to whoever wins out of Wales, Ireland or Enlgand, unless they draw).
That #1 ranking we've enjoyed since November 2009.
Last week we already got the worst TRC result since 2004 (3rd place), and equaled the record biggest loss to any opposition ever (to Australia by 21 points in August 1999 in Sydney).
That much is probably still survivable for Hansen.

If we draw this weekend, we will lose the Bledisloe Cup which we've held since 2003, and (unless Wales and England draw) we'll drop to 3rd in the rankings, also for the first time since 2003.
Until the draw with the Lions in 2017, we had won every game at Eden Park since August 1994 (draw with South Africa). There were 4 coaches in between that won every Eden Park game (from John Hart to Graham Henry).

And if the Wallabies win, (paying $4.65) it will be the first time in NZ since August 2011 (in Dunedin by 8 points), the first time at Eden Park since September 1986 (by 13 points), and the end of the unbeaten record there since July 1994 (lost by 3 to France).

If we happen to lose by 15+, (13+ is paying $15) it will be the biggest loss ever at Eden Park in the 98 years since it was first used... or at any home or neutral venue for that matter (matching/beating the record 15 pt loss to Australia in Wellington in August 1964).
In that case, New Zealand will drop below Australia in the rankings to at least 4th in the rankings - a record low (since the WR Rankings were introduced in 2003).

And yet... Steve Hansen (2012-now) will still have an 83% win percentage. Just 2 pp below Graham Henry (2004-11, with Hansen as assistant coach), 3pp below Alex Wyllie (1988-91), and better than everyone else in the last 50 years.


BTW I'm not saying Hansen should be held to this standard, of maintaining the records of his predecessors. (nothing lasts forever). I'm just figuring out what the stats will hypothetically look like, and wondering out loud what standard everyone else will hold him to once the World Cup is over. (with a good dose of cynicism about everyone else - i.e. talking heads and the public, not you guys!)

PS... Turns out until last weekend there were only 6 times New Zealand has lost by 15+ anywhere to anyone ever. Never twice under the same coach and never by more than 3 scores. I did not know that!

 

[Derpus]

^^^
I really doubt you are going to lose.

It is interesting to note how many of the record wins the Wallabies already held over the ABs though.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

not a perfect game?......all change again....seems to be Hansen's only move now

famously the Henry / Hansen era has looked to build real combinations, only taking one or two bolters on tours and then not always playing them, the era where several players have got to 100 caps...somethings changed

Injuries
Experienced players out of form/ leaders inspiring lack of confidence
A team that had lost confidence
Less obvious first choices
Losses
The rest of the world catching up
Panic
Overreaction

I do find it interesting that despite the Bledisloe being on the line the selections still suggest tinkering and rotation looking towards the WC.

yep, but it is also tinkering by removing players that underperformed. Removing leaders that were inspiring a lack of confidence by leading by poor example. But you are right, you still wouldn't have done this if it was the World Cup final. A big shame they'd risk the Bledisloe like that.

If Hansen delivers on the RWC 3peat, he will be forgiven for anything else that happens.
But what if he doesn't win the RWC? Then what will he be judged on? (for reference, Hansen has been head coach since 2012, and assistant coach since 2004)

Here are the Golden Era records and stats at stake in this game...

Even if the ABs win this weekend, (paying $1.17) we will most likely lose the top rankings spot in the next 2 weeks (to whoever wins out of Wales, Ireland or Enlgand, unless they draw).
That #1 ranking we've enjoyed since November 2009.
Last week we already got the worse TRC result since 2004 (3rd place), and equaled the record biggest loss to any opposition ever (to Australia by 21 points in August 1999 in Sydney).
That much is probably still survivable for Hansen.

If we draw this weekend, we will lose the Bledisloe Cup which we've held since 2003, and (unless Wales and England draw) we'll drop to 3rd in the rankings, also for the first time since 2003.
Until the draw with the Lions in 2017, we had won every game at Eden Park since August 1994 (draw with South Africa). There were 4 coaches in between that won every Eden Park game (from John Hart to Graham Henry).

And if the Wallabies win, (paying $4.65) it will be the first time in NZ since August 2011 (in Dunedin by 8 points), the first time at Eden Park since September 1986 (by 13 points), and the end of the unbeaten record there since July 1994 (lost by 3 to France).

If we happen to lose by 15+, (13+ is paying $15) it will be the biggest loss ever at Eden Park in the 98 years since it was first used... or at any home or neutral venue for that matter (matching/beating the record 15 pt loss to Australia in Wellington in August 1964).
In that case, New Zealand will drop below Australia in the rankings to at least 4th in the rankings - a record low (since the WR Rankings were introduced in 2003).

And yet... Steve Hansen (2012-now) will still have an 83% win percentage. Just 2 pp below Graham Henry (2004-11, with Hansen as assistant coach), 3pp below Alex Wyllie (1988-91), and better than everyone else in the last 50 years.


BTW I'm not saying Hansen should be held to this standard, of maintaining the records of his predecessors. (nothing lasts forever). I'm just figuring out what the stats will hypothetically look like, and wondering out loud what standard everyone else will hold him to once the World Cup is over. (with a good dose of cynicism about everyone else - i.e. talking heads and the public, not you guys!)

PS... Turns out until last weekend there were only 6 times New Zealand has lost by 15+ anywhere to anyone ever. Never twice under the same coach and never by more than 3 scores. I did not know that!

also first and second ever losses to Ireland

 

[Brigantine]

I really doubt you are going to lose.

It is interesting to note how many of the record wins the Wallabies already held over the ABs though.

Most wins (44), 5 of the 7 biggest wins ever (15+), including the 2 biggest, biggest away win, plus the 2 biggest wins ever at Eden Park (13 points in 1986 and 14 points in 78)
Even the best win percentage since the 1981 Springbok Tour protests. (Australia 30%, South Africa 2nd on 28%)

Yeah, it does seem like the Wallabies are our nemesis.

The one thing you don't have is all time best win percentage (South Africa 39%, Australia in 2nd on 28%) or win percentage since professionalization (South Africa 29%, Australia 2nd on 27%)

 

[Derpus]

^^^^
I always thought of SA as your true nemesis.

Even you Kiwis have to admit, having the Bledisloe competitive again for a few years would be great for entertainment value.

 

[Icemn]

I hope this BullS*** of BB at 15 and Bender on 14 is Hansen not wanting to show his hand come world cup. For the life of me I cannot understand why you would play your and thé best 15 on the wing...

Im not sure why the 14 position has been an issue, even in 2011 we had to play a center there in Kahui. Why not play Goodhue or Bridge on 14 if it is still an issue?

12. Crotty 13. ALB 14. Goodhue
12. SBW 13. Goodhue 14. Bridge

I am not a fan of BB on 15 and Ritchie at 10 with Bender on 14. It is hindering our attack...

 

[Derpus]

I hope this BullS*** of BB at 15 and Bender on 14 is Hansen not wanting to show his hand come world cup. For the life of me I cannot understand why you would play your and thé best 15 on the wing...

Im not sure why the 14 position has been an issue, even in 2011 we had to play a center there in Kahui. Why not play Goodhue or Bridge on 14 if it is still an issue?

12. Crotty 13. ALB 14. Goodhue
12. SBW 13. Goodhue 14. Bridge

I am not a fan of BB on 15 and Ritchie at 10 with Bender on 14. It is hindering our attack...

Yeah but how would it be 'hiding' his hand? youve been reeling out BB 10 Bender 15 for the past 4 years?

 

[Icemn]

Yeah but how would it be 'hiding' his hand? youve been reeling out BB 10 Bender 15 for the past 4 years?

By letting opponents expect a kicking game with barrett on 15 going into the wc... then mixing it up by having BS on 15 ‍

 

[mania]

I do find it interesting that despite the Bledisloe being on the line the selections still suggest tinkering and rotation looking towards the WC.

ABs are still in tinkering mode. reiko, bender and franks are being rested not dropped

hansen - "We need to find out if these three players can step up to the plate under the biggest pressure, and you don't get much bigger than this one," he explained. "What happens if it gets to the World Cup and Ben Smith blows a tyre or Rieko blows a hamstring and we've got to put some young guy in there who's never faced pressure like this before?

"It's ideal. This is the best game we could have asked for."

 

[Five Meters Out]

ABs are still in tinkering mode. reiko, bender and franks are being rested not dropped

hansen - "We need to find out if these three players can step up to the plate under the biggest pressure, and you don't get much bigger than this one," he explained. "What happens if it gets to the World Cup and Ben Smith blows a tyre or Rieko blows a hamstring and we've got to put some young guy in there who's never faced pressure like this before?

"It's ideal. This is the best game we could have asked for."

If Reece has a solid game, I can't see Smith returning to the right wing. He looks short on pace. I don't think he's over the injury suffered playing for Highlanders
I feel Ioane's the one the AB's desperately need to find form. Look at his highlights package and compare that to what he's delivered in the second half of this season.

 

[Hulk Hogan]

Honestly I don't even rate Ioane at international level, he's quick but his biggest talent his keeping the ball in touch. He seems uninspired in defense and as of late hasn't offered a whole lot in attack either.

 

[Derpus]

Honestly I don't even rate Ioane at international level, he's quick but his biggest talent his keeping the ball in touch. He seems uninspired in defense and as of late hasn't offered a whole lot in attack either.

Disagree. He was unreal in 17/18. Players should be picked on form though.

Is Naholo injured? I would have him as my strike winger over Ioane all things being equal. Reece looks to me to be something of a flattrack bully.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

Disagree. He was unreal in 17/18. Players should be picked on form though.

Is Naholo injured? I would have him as my strike winger over Ioane all things being equal. Reece looks to me to be something of a flattrack bully.

Nope, scored for Taranaki on the weekend

 

[Kiwi boss]

Disagree. He was unreal in 17/18. Players should be picked on form though.

Is Naholo injured? I would have him as my strike winger over Ioane all things being equal. Reece looks to me to be something of a flattrack bully.

Rieko is a defensive liability and a small cheslin Colby outplayed him in the air.

NZ play a game where their 11 and 14's look good they could pick anyone. Imagine if B Habana played for NZ he managed to score the most tries ever playing for a side where he never got ball.

NZ are in trouble and refuse to admit it

Read is past his best todd and cane has never been more than average

B Retalic and whitelock always pick up the slack there ,now that BR is out their fwds are crumbeling.

Franks and moody look tired and Dane Coles is more of a wing

 

[TRF_heineken]

Most wins (44), 5 of the 7 biggest wins ever (15+), including the 2 biggest, biggest away win, plus the 2 biggest wins ever at Eden Park (13 points in 1986 and 14 points in 78)
Even the best win percentage since the 1981 Springbok Tour protests. (Australia 30%, South Africa 2nd on 28%)

Yeah, it does seem like the Wallabies are our nemesis.

The one thing you don't have is all time best win percentage (South Africa 39%, Australia in 2nd on 28%) or win percentage since professionalization (South Africa 29%, Australia 2nd on 27%)

I think the only reason why the Wobblies have those stats against the AB's is because you play them the most of all the teams. You play them at least one game more every year as opposed to the other teams because of the Bledisloe Cup. So there's always an extra game that might have an influence that could edit the stats. And based on that, the AB's sometimes field a lesser strong team for Bledisloe Cup 3 when they already have it in the bag...

 

[Kiwi boss]

NZ are beatable and that's the biggest thing all the world has realized.

Wales use to lead games against SA but somehow manage to lose them till they realized the boks are beatable ....and has done so consistently the last couple of years.


AB don't have and aura anymore Aus Ireland and the boks realized this

NZ has not beaten the boks at home in 3 years

Last 4 results

1point win nz in cape town
2 point win boks Wellington
2 point win NZ Loftus
Draw Wellington

 

[Derpus]

Rieko is a defensive liability and a small cheslin Colby outplayed him in the air.

NZ play a game where their 11 and 14's look good they could pick anyone. Imagine if B Habana played for NZ he managed to score the most tries ever playing for a side where he never got ball.

NZ are in trouble and refuse to admit it

Read is past his best todd and cane has never been more than average

B Retalic and whitelock always pick up the slack there ,now that BR is out their fwds are crumbeling.

Franks and moody look tired and Dane Coles is more of a wing

Well now youve done it.

 

[Derpus]

I think the only reason why the Wobblies have those stats against the AB's is because you play them the most of all the teams. You play them at least one game more every year as opposed to the other teams because of the Bledisloe Cup. So there's always an extra game that might have an influence that could edit the stats. And based on that, the AB's sometimes field a lesser strong team for Bledisloe Cup 3 when they already have it in the bag...

Pure numbers yes but wouldnt influence percentage, which you are clear winners in (though only just in prof era). I think.