A Political Thread

[Which Tyler]

Lost his first vote as prime minister.

That's got to be a first. What happens if Labour don't give him his election?

He'll maintain his 0% record...

 

[General Melchett]

328 to 301 was a comfortable defeat for Boris. Things ain't looking good for him.

 

[ncurd]

Lost his first vote as prime minister.

That's got to be a first. What happens if Labour don't give him his election?

Apparently Pitt the Younger was equally shite.


Give Corbyn his dues and other opposition leaders they aren't falling for general election without stopping no deal. They are pretty united in making sure no deal doesn't happen under any circumstances.

 

[Reiser99]

Well 328 is a majority even if the speaker and Sinn Fein also voted. Conservatives need 14 people to completely switch from yes to no.

By my count we have 629 MPs voting. Speaker + Sinn Fein is 8, so 637, which leaves 13 people abstaining?

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Mogg's demeanor in the Commons was disgraceful, couldn't make himself appear any more disinterested if he tried. I can't understand why anyone raves about him, he embodies everything wrong with the old remnants of the class system.

 

[Which Tyler]

By my count we have 629 MPs voting. Speaker + Sinn Fein is 8, so 637, which leaves 13 people abstaining?

Or absent, some will be sick or on parental leave, some won't take their role seriously, (Jared O'Mara). Some will also have reciprocal non-voting agreements in place (I can't be there and would vote Aye, so someone from the May camp agrees to abstain as well).

We'll probably see more abstentions today as some of those whipless Tories won't be able to bring themselves to vote to bring down the government.

 

[BobbyM]

Well 328 is a majority even if the speaker and Sinn Fein also voted. Conservatives need 14 people to completely switch from yes to no.

By my count we have 629 MPs voting. Speaker + Sinn Fein is 8, so 637, which leaves 13 people abstaining?

There is also the deputy speakers which brings that total up to 640. Add in the 2 tellers from each side (whole votes aren't counted in the 328 and 301 above), plus 6 abstainers gets you your 650. So overall you have 15 MPs not able to vote on these matters (speaker, deputies, SF and tellers) so you have 635 possible votes to be won. Given 328 voted one way, you would need 11 of them to change their vote plus all the abstainers to not abstain and vote with government.

 

[Which Tyler]

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Labour won't be voting for an election today.

Whatever the tactics, the optics of that aren't great for them. Bojo will eat Corbyn alive on the back of it.

 

[Gavin]

Labour won't be voting for an election today.

Whatever the tactics, the optics of that aren't great for them. Bojo will eat Corbyn alive on the back of it.

Labour would vote for an election but only if the No-Deal Bill goes through before it takes place.

That's the plan and Boris is stuck at the moment. He wants an election but need support. The Rebel Alliance are going to try everything to ensure to get No-Deal off the table before any election

 

[BobbyM]

Labour won't be voting for an election today.

Whatever the tactics, the optics of that aren't great for them. Bojo will eat Corbyn alive on the back of it.

This is where JC has shown more savvy than he has in the last few years. It's country before party in a nutshell. I am sure that there will be those who try to spin it negatively but actually I think this will help coalesce the so-called Rebel Alliance and strengthen the ability in an election of them not to shout themselves in the foot. So they could extend the agreements between Lib Dem's Plaid and the Greens to Labour to keep this new hard right Tory party and their Brexit chums out of government.

 

[ncurd]

Labour won't be voting for an election today.

Whatever the tactics, the optics of that aren't great for them. Bojo will eat Corbyn alive on the back of it.

Not really they've been lost to Leave voters for a very long time. They are putting stopping no deal above getting an election. It's the most positive press they've had amongst remain voters in quite a while.

 

[Which Tyler]

Looks like the SNP have walked back on their desire to vote in favour of a GE as well - which probably screws that option, even as a simple bill (for which, surely the FTPA foresaw and accounted for - if not, then that act is as useful as a chocolate fire guard)

For now, we need to prioritise. A GE won't solve anything, and will probably lead to a 3-way coalition or confidence and supply. Which is why It's BJ's preferred backup.

IMO We need to get an extension, and get a 2nd referendum, before heading for a GE. The chances are that a second ref will come back with a small majority, but it's the only thing that is capable of healing divisions.
Potential flies in the ointment are if May's deal is ressurected - which I think means prorogation needs to happen first, or BJ wins a vote on his strategy.

It's going to be fascinating to see what the whipless Tories do.
Greeningnis quitting anyway. Clarke wasn't intending to stand down at the next GE anyway, but may be pissed off enough to change his mind. Hammond looks like he's going to fight potential deselection.
Which leaves 18 (and a few others who must be getting annoyed by Cummings' bully-boy tactics).
I can't see m/any of the grandees joining LibDem. Do they join CHUKb? Do they stand their ground and go quietly at the GE? Do they stand as independents? Do they start their own Moderate Conservative party (and try to win back some CHUKb ex-tories)

 

[ncurd]

IMO We need to get an extension, and get a 2nd referendum, before heading for a GE. The chances are that a second ref will come back with a small majority, but it's the only thing that is capable of healing divisions.

I agree I've felt for a long time the only way to settle this is a binding referendum. If the majority of the country (who vote) vote for no deal so be it but let's confirm that's actually what they want.

 

[BobbyM]

I agree I've felt for a long time the only way to settle this is a binding referendum. If the majority of the country (who vote) vote for no deal so be it but let's confirm that's actually what they want.

Agreed but it needs to be clear that it is a firm no deal being voted for, against a firm remain.

 

[Which Tyler]

I agree I've felt for a long time the only way to settle this is a binding referendum. If the majority of the country (who vote) vote for no deal so be it but let's confirm that's actually what they want.

Yup.

I'd also favour a new law setting out how referendums are run (Supermajority? compulsory voting? Electrical commission rules apply? Voter ages? Overseas citizens? Resident foreign nationals? Etc ect)

 

[Which Tyler]

Agreed but it needs to be clear that it is a firm no deal being voted for, against a firm remain.

Yup, the actual options need to be on the ballot, with any and all information on those options publicised and available to all.
No deal - complete with details on what WTO terms actually mean, endorsed by WTO.
May's deal - the whole thing sent to every household.
No Brexit - you could argue that the status quo shouldn't need explaining, but it obviously does, so what? A copy of the Maastricht treaty? sent to every household

 

[Which Tyler]

Question.
Given the (significantly) minority government, could we see a standing article 24 force a second referendum? Or would only a GNU be able to do that?

 

[ncurd]

Yup, the actual options need to be on the ballot, with any and all information on those options publicised and available to all.
No deal - complete with details on what WTO terms actually mean, endorsed by WTO.
May's deal - the whole thing sent to every household.
No Brexit - you could argue that the status quo shouldn't need explaining, but it obviously does, so what? A copymp of the Maastricht treaty? sent to every household

Needs to be preferential voting as well.

Unsure what you give for no Brexit to appease Brexiters I keep getting told by them I didn't know what I voted for either.....I'd say you need to publish current plans towards an 'ever closer union'. The state of countries that have applied to join the EU, that we will never lose to the veto....you know all the stuff they did last time around but did a rubbish job at promoting.

 

[Reiser99]

Judge rules the Government acted lawfully in using prorogation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49568760

Didn't think this would work. Simply judge is ruling that they acted within the law and this was always a moral and ethical issue more than a legal one.