A Political Thread

[Bada-Bing!]

Well we will see in 10 minutes. They are saying on news that such announcements are usually only due to issues of major constitutional issues such as a General election or resignation.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

A general election it is!

 

[ncurd]

Utter MADNESS!

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Utter MADNESS!

Is it though? I'm no expert, but the Labour Party have never been more hopeless than they are now and the Conservative party lead is never going to be greater than it is now. Bearing in mind that right now their formal majority is like 16?

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Why has this been done and what effect, if any, could it have on BREXIT?

 

[ncurd]

Is it though? I'm no expert, but the Labour Party have never been more hopeless than they are now and the Conservative party lead is never going to be greater than it is now. Bearing in mind that right now their formal majority is like 16?

Yeah but how many seats will the Lib Dems win back (they'll win some but probably not back to old levels)?

Tories won't take the SNP seats in Scotland.

I just don't know how much more a majority she will get.

The only answer is it gives her a mandate for whatever Brexit she wants.....which make sense but this would of made more sense 6-8 months ago when she made PM.



The madness is playing silly buggers with the country at a time where we need stability.

"Country is coming together", my ass is it and this will be very divisive.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Why has this been done and what effect, if any, could it have on BREXIT?

I'll only tell you if you rep me 5 times...

May has a tiny majority, and yet opinion polls indicate the gap between the conservatives and the rest has never been greater, so what better time for her to secure a mandate going into brexit negotiations?
The effect it will have on brexit is only a matter of the perceived strength of Mays negotiation position - a heavy conservative victory and a large majority in the commons would be a backing for Mays hard brexit. It's all a matter of degree whether the British people effectively give May their blessing, because she's posing a vote for the conservatives as a vote for brexit and vice versa.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah but how many seats will the Lib Dems win back (they'll win some but probably not back to old levels)?

Tories won't take the SNP seats in Scotland.

I just don't know how much more a majority she will get.

The only answer is it gives her a mandate for whatever Brexit she wants.....which make sense but this would of made more sense 6-8 months ago when she made PM.



The madness is playing silly buggers with the country at a time where we need stability.

"Country is coming together", my ass is it and this will be very divisive.

The biggest risk would appear to be that anyone who voted remain and previously voted conservative is caught in a bind. A vote for the Conservative party here is a vote for brexit and not only that but a hard brexit.

On the other hand, I think you underestimate the extent to which the Labour Party is eroding its own base. In recent elections the tories have won some seats from the tories that they have never had a chance of winning and its completely possible that this could continue. Because the inverse of my first point above is also true - if you're a regular labour voter who voted for brexit, and you aren't too happy with Corbyn as many are not, why would you vote for labour?

Another reason for it is the propaganda value of blaming the negotiating setbacks so far on opposition parties who they portray as weakening and undermining the negotiations. It's utter rubbish of course but this way she can blame the failures so far on 'undemocratic' opposition who are getting in the way of the 'will of the people'.

 

[Which Tyler]

A general election it is!

Oh FFS.
So sign article 50, and THEN go to the polls to confuse things ever further.

Anyone have any faith at all that the election will be fought with any actual information and policies, or just pointing at the other and calling them twats, whilst lying ever more blatantly about intentions?

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Wasn't expecting that when I woke up this morning.

 

[ncurd]

Oh FFS.
So sign article 50, and THEN go to the polls to confuse things ever further.

Anyone have any faith at all that the election will be fought with any actual information and policies, or just pointing at the other and calling them twats, whilst lying ever more blatantly about intentions?

Well considering May lied straight off the bat no faith whatsoever.

The Labor Brexit-vote divide will be interest as well as the Tory but I can't see how it will favour anyone. How many Labor marginal are left that the Tories can rightfully expect to be able to take?

- - - Updated - - -

Oh FFS.
So sign article 50, and THEN go to the polls to confuse things ever further.

Anyone have any faith at all that the election will be fought with any actual information and policies, or just pointing at the other and calling them twats, whilst lying ever more blatantly about intentions?

Well considering May lied straight off the bat no faith whatsoever.

The Labor Brexit-vote divide will be interest as well as the Tory but I can't see how it will favour anyone. How many Labor marginal are left that the Tories can rightfully expect to be able to take?

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I predict a Tory win by a landslide.
Lib Dem to gain the most seats.
SNP to lose one or two seats.
Labour to get smashed (unless a surprised leader comes out of it).
UKIP to win fek all.

From a Labour POV it might be a good thing long term, if Corbyn gets smashed then it might force the hand of the general party to get rid of him and allows a new leader time to build.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh FFS.
So sign article 50, and THEN go to the polls to confuse things ever further.

Anyone have any faith at all that the election will be fought with any actual information and policies, or just pointing at the other and calling them twats, whilst lying ever more blatantly about intentions?

You mean like every election?

 

[ncurd]

The problem is where is a Unity figure from Labor going to come? No one has emerged since the last election.

The real Maths come from how many will the Tories gain from Labor vs. how many will the lib dems take from the tories.....

I think the Tories will get a net gain of about 10-20 but that's still a slim majority probably enough to ram through anything they want though.


Other bonus likely destruction of UKIP as a political force.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Comrade Corbyn for PM!!!

 

[TobesHodges]

Considering Brexit will be a 2 year minimum process in the grand scheme of things its not going to make much of a difference, though the Conservatives will be praying on it through the campaign trail over the coming month, I can here the Slogans now "Dont put and Uncertain Future (Brexit), in uncertain hands (Labour/CORBYN)".
They have a point and this is exactly the reason they are calling for a re-election, I'm sure Labour will put on a stern face and try and show Diversity to the normal Liberal approach, but with a man like Corbyn at the helm I dont think it will even come close to enough.
I'm predicting a low Voting Election with the Tories getting a big Majority, A lot of last time's Labour supporters will vote Conservative/Random other parties/or not at all. I'm a Conservative voter and for the party its a very clever move to get some more seats in the house and to be fair I didn't think the Tories had it in them to mix it up like this, but fair play to them, it's bold.

 

[ncurd]

Problem is with that idea (Labour voting Tory) is most Labour voters really hate the idea of voting Tory they might vote UKIP over a single issue but Labour are not opposing Brexit. I know a lot of left leaning voters who don't like Corbyn but none who like May (in equal measure vice-versa right leaning voters would never vote Corbyn).

Its going to be interesting to watch how many Labor voters from 2 years ago are against Corbyn enough to vote in more Tory's.


I suspect it actually might be far less than the polls predict. The only thing I do predict is thumping win in votes (possibly even over the 50% margin if UKIP fall completely by the way side) if not in seats for the Tory's. I supect they'll win thier safe seats by huge margins (due to other parties not turning up) if the marginals I'm not utterly convinced they are going to win really well. Hence by prediction of a net gain of 10-20 seats probably closer to upper side of that. I think the Lib Dems will gain a similar amount (but at the lower end of the scale) pricipally in constieuntcy's they lost by small margins last time as Green/Labour supporters last time come back. Leaving Labour to loose in region of 30-40 seats (overall).

 

[General Melchett]

The main outcomes will be an increased majority for the Tories but probably not as significant as the polls suggest, more seats for the Lib dems and Corbyn having to resign.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Living in an incredibly safe Tory seat (our thundercunt Boris Johnson on a diet looking MP got over 55% last time) I can't wait for my vote to mean sod all again.

 

[ncurd]

I may have a minor meltdown is May carries on this line about how the country coming together she sound like the ****ing execs in our company saying the complete opposite of what is actually happening in terms of culture. I've never know this country to be more divided.....

 

[McTallshort]

Well that was unexpected and unhelpful

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Well that was unexpected and unhelpful

what?