A Political Thread

[TRF_Olyy]

Corbyn wins with 61.8% of the vote

 

[McTallshort]

No labour government for a few years then

 

[j'nuh]

Fair enough, but let's not pretend things would have been better under Smith. With the single policy of a second referendum on the EU, he would have done more damage to Labour's electoral chances than any kind of incompetence shown by Corbyn. I think Labour have gotten the better of the two outcomes. (Although fingers crossed that Corbyn hands over to a soft left MP in 2018/2019.)

 

[McTallshort]

Fair enough, but let's not pretend things would have been better under Smith. With the single policy of a second referendum on the EU, he would have done more damage to Labour's electoral chances than any kind of incompetence shown by Corbyn. I think Labour have gotten the better of the two outcomes. (Although fingers crossed that Corbyn hands over to a soft left MP in 2018/2019.)

I don't know, would a second referendum be that unpopular? I wouldn't agree with it but many people would. I just don't see Corbyn getting the Labour MPs into joined up way of thinking. He was a poor follower as a back bench MP and many in the Labour party remember him not following the party line before he was leader. Then you have sinister organizations such as momentum pushing for deselection of MPs who don't support him it's hard to see how he and the parlimentry labour party can ever get on.

 

[j'nuh]

It depends I think. Tories are split between soft and hard Brexit. Labour are split between soft Brexit and a second referendum. The Lib Dems, on the other hand, have a coherent view on Europe. They are nearly wholly pro-immigration, pro-single market and are advocating staying in. It alienates the half of the electorate that voted to leave, but will be very appealing to remainers. They are not expected to win a GE, they just need to carve out 20% of the vote in order to get into coalition.

Labour, on the other hand, have loftier ambitions. Labour need to win an election and they cannot afford to alienate 50% of the electorate at the outset. Especially since a lot of the Remain vote will be divided up by SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru etc.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Fair enough, but let's not pretend things would have been better under Smith. With the single policy of a second referendum on the EU, he would have done more damage to Labour's electoral chances than any kind of incompetence shown by Corbyn. I think Labour have gotten the better of the two outcomes. (Although fingers crossed that Corbyn hands over to a soft left MP in 2018/2019.)

No way corbyn hands over the reins to a soft left MP for the next general election.

Originally i thought that might be the case but after the last year or so he doesn't come across as the type to do that.

 

[j'nuh]

It may be that Corbyn has been fighting the timing of the handover over the last year, rather than the concept of it.

But I agree, it's looking fairly unlikely.

 

[McTallshort]

It may be that Corbyn has been fighting the timing of the handover over the last year, rather than the concept of it.

But I agree, it's looking fairly unlikely.

Corbyn won't be able to hand anything over it's clear the party activists want him and no body else. There seems to be a real or unreal surge in Labour for a very left wing agenda and corbyns the man. It may work....but I doubt it.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

yeh the momentum rubbish.

Corbyn has made labours bed now for the GE.

Be interesting to see the support between Labour and Green's work out. Greens support grew when it was Miliband will they come back to Labour under Corbyn and if so will Greens drop down again?

 

[McTallshort]

The greens were more left wing in the last election than Labour so I don't see them being put off by Corbyn at all quite the opposite

 

[ncurd]

Most Green supporters in the last election I've seen are now the staunch Corbyn is the saviour of mankind types.

Honestly next GE I suspect we'll have a hung parliament again. Can see both Labour and Lib Dems gaining back seats rather than loosing them but not enough to really be back to where they were. So suspect it'll end up Conservative short by a few seats.

Supply and Confedenice will be the game. Of course UKIP support maybe non existent as well.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I don't know Labour might well struggle holding the North east this time around.

There could be a real worry for the left that a Corbyn government takes more Lib dems and Green supporters and lose more to the likes of UKIP or even the tories.

It will all come down to BREXIT i guess for the later 2.

Lib Dem will have to really try hard to produce the centre left imagine in the next few years.

Personally i could see the turnout being really low in the next GE IMO, esp in labour Working class areas.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/26/why-isnt-labour-debating-brexit-at-its-conference

Brexit is not on Labour's formal agenda as a conference topic. Is this a joke? And Corbyn and MacDonnell seriously consider themselves a Government in waiting.

Why is it not on the agenda?

The party picks eight subjects for discussion. Four are chosen by trade unions and the remaining four are selected in a ballot of constituency Labour parties.

What are they discussing?

The four subjects picked by the unions were employment rights, industrial strategy, public services and energy. The top four subjects selected by the constituency parties were grammar schools (18.32%), housing (16.44%), child refugees (15.53%) and the NHS (15%). Brexit was one of many subjects on the ballot, but as it did not feature in the top four it does not make the formal agenda.

Why was Brexit not picked?

The simple answer is that trade unions and constituency parties care more about the subjects that they picked, such as employment rights and housing. But, more importantly, Brexit is a politically awkward subject for the party. Jeremy Corbyn backed remaining in the EU but with reservations. And his lacklustre campaigning on the issue was one of the key reasons for a challenge to his leadership. The vast majority of Labour MPs backed remaining in the EU, but many of Labour's heartland areas, such as the north-west, north-east and Wales, voted to leave. The party does not want to alienate these areas by suggesting they got it wrong. But at the same time Labour does not have a clear stance on what it wants to see from the Brexit negotiations.

Is Corbyn likely to set out a Brexit strategy?

No. "He doesn't see Brexit as a central issue and he doesn't have a very fixed position of what the policy should look like," said Simon Usherwood, a reader in European studies at the University of Surrey. "If someone was bold enough to set out a vision then I think they could go a long way. But Jeremy Corbyn is not going to be that man," Usherwood told Agence France-Presse.

 

[Peat]

I believe the majority of seats where there is a substantial Green vote to bite into are Labour anyway. Think its 8 of the 10 seats with highest green vote.

Mildly sceptical as to how much floating left there is for Corbyn to pick up where it does him any good. Lot of the people who are still Lib Dem are either heavily tribal or heavily pro-EU. There was a council seat up in Sheffield recently where Lib Dems hammered Labour for what its worth*

Think I'm just going to drop my interest in the whole thing. Maybe come back in ten years or so when the winds of time blow Labour back onto an electable course. Or whatever follows Labour. Not that it matters while I still live in a safe Labour seat mind.

*Mildly amusing anecdote about the attention people pay to council elections. Two of my sister's friends were Green councillors. They lost their seats in the last election, although a Green was returned in both seats. They reckon its because people just ticked the first Green they saw on the paper and that wasn't them, it being done in alphabetical order and them having surnames in the bottom half of said. So they're considering changing their surname to something beginning with an A.


edit: And so it begins again - http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...s-when-trident-pledge-went-missing-his-speech

 

[j'nuh]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/26/why-isnt-labour-debating-brexit-at-its-conference

Brexit is not on Labour's formal agenda as a conference topic. Is this a joke? And Corbyn and MacDonnell seriously consider themselves a Government in waiting.

Corbyn and McDonnell don't choose the topics.

FWIW, I think it's a good political idea for Labour to not invest too heavily in Brexit at the minute. There really isn't much to discuss. Anything of political substance relating to the EU can be covered by other topics. The EU will no doubt come up when they discuss employment rights for example. Right now, the only topic that is ever discussed in relation to the EU is whether and when to enact Article 50, and it's not something that Labour have any particular control over, and it's not something that will do them any favours to discuss.

If I'm Corbyn, I just monitor the situation. Don't be committal on anything. If Tories make a success of Brexit, it's not going to look good on Labour for opposing Brexit after the leave vote. Likewise, setting out a Brexit position now is no good. If Tories fail in Brexit, they can just claim that Labour wanted to do the same. Strategically, Labour ought to set out a position at the next General Election if the issue is still relevant.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Corbyn and McDonnell don't choose the topics.

FWIW, I think it's a good political idea for Labour to not invest too heavily in Brexit at the minute. There really isn't much to discuss. Anything of political substance relating to the EU can be covered by other topics. The EU will no doubt come up when they discuss employment rights for example. Right now, the only topic that is ever discussed in relation to the EU is whether and when to enact Article 50, and it's not something that Labour have any particular control over, and it's not something that will do them any favours to discuss.

If I'm Corbyn, I just monitor the situation. Don't be committal on anything. If Tories make a success of Brexit, it's not going to look good on Labour for opposing Brexit after the leave vote. Likewise, setting out a Brexit position now is no good. If Tories fail in Brexit, they can just claim that Labour wanted to do the same. Strategically, Labour ought to set out a position at the next General Election if the issue is still relevant.

You are joking right? How the hell is the Labour party supposed to hold the Government to account on the single most important issue which will affect this country, when it doesn't think it's in the top 4 issues to debate at their party conference, as voted by TUs and their own members. It just reinforces that they are f'ing clueless and that their membership is not representative of the electorate.

 

[j'nuh]

You are joking right? How the hell is the Labour party supposed to hold the Government to account on the single most important issue which will affect this country, when it doesn't think it's in the top 4 issues to debate at their party conference, as voted by TUs and their own members. It just reinforces that they are f'ing clueless and that their membership is not representative of the electorate.

I think you have misunderstood what I am saying. Labour should and will discuss Brexit, but in the context of other issues.

For example, the biggest concern for the left in regards to Brexit will be employment rights. Some rights are protected by the EU and the Tories will no doubt use Brexit in order to weaken employment rights. Labour can and will have a coherent rebuttal to this by discussing Brexit in the context of employment rights. Labour Labour will hold the government to account in this way.

Changes to immigration because of Brexit can be covered under immigration.

Replacing structural funding from the EU can be discussed under regional politics.

Farming subsidies under agriculture. Diplomacy under foreign policy. etc. etc.

Labour have picked eight areas for discussion and Brexit will come up in most of them.

Fundamentally, there is little in regards to Brexit that can't be covered more coherently under another brief. The only things that I can think of that will not be covered anywhere else are second referendums and Article 50. It would be different if Labour were in power: they would need a coherent strategy for leaving the EU. Currently, they can simply deal with Brexit and hold the government to account on a more micro level.

 

[Peat]

Inclined to agree with both of you, if that's possible.

There is close to zero mileage for Labour in discussing the matter at the moment.

But showing no interest in discussing it is minus miles.

I do think its a bit absurd that the party leadership have no formal voice on what topics are discussed. I guess maybe they set the ballot?

edit: This was typed before J'nuh's last post, too lazy to change, will just let the mild irrelevance sit there.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Haven't seen any of he US debate but apparently Trump was really bad, like embarrassingly so.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I think you have misunderstood what I am saying. Labour should and will discuss Brexit, but in the context of other issues.

For example, the biggest concern for the left in regards to Brexit will be employment rights. Some rights are protected by the EU and the Tories will no doubt use Brexit in order to weaken employment rights. Labour can and will have a coherent rebuttal to this by discussing Brexit in the context of employment rights. Labour Labour will hold the government to account in this way.

Changes to immigration because of Brexit can be covered under immigration.

Replacing structural funding from the EU can be discussed under regional politics.

Farming subsidies under agriculture. Diplomacy under foreign policy. etc. etc.

Labour have picked eight areas for discussion and Brexit will come up in most of them.

Fundamentally, there is little in regards to Brexit that can't be covered more coherently under another brief. The only things that I can think of that will not be covered anywhere else are second referendums and Article 50. It would be different if Labour were in power: they would need a coherent strategy for leaving the EU. Currently, they can simply deal with Brexit and hold the government to account on a more micro level.

But to not address or discuss what Labour envisions our new relationship with Europe and how they want us to exit the EU just beggars belief and how they want to deal with Freedom of movement and immigration post Brexit. Between the TUs and constituency members they've managed to pick of the 8 fundamental issues to put on the agenda facing the UK as industrial strategy, Grammar schools and child refugees as more important issues to discuss than Brexit? WTF? Immigration isn't even in the top 8. So again the TU and members showing they are not reflective of the electorate.

It's all very well discussing Brexit in terms of employment rights and making up loss of funding in the regions, but I think it enables the leadership and especially Corbyn to dodge the main issue why the PLP turned on him after his performance in the EU referendum. So every time he and the leadership don't want to discuss an issue they are just gonna hide behind their members and the TU? Some kind of leadership and Government in waiting.